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Wednesday, November 12, 2014
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Tuesday's Gone: Week 10 #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer will be playing on the big stage Thursday night in a big divisional game v. the Bengals, but the Cincinnati - and the weather - could spoil that.
Week 10: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 10
results: 9-4 wins (99-47-1 .673); 4-9 v. spread (64-82-1 .435)
Cleveland Browns 5-3
(+6)
@ Cincinnati Bengals 5-2-1 (44.5): Bengals
21-20 Browns 24-3
Thursday, 8:25 PM, Paul
Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather:
40% rain, low 40s)
Reasons: This could be
about as evenly matched as any Thursday night game has been so far this season,
and it happens to be a battle between two NFC North teams, the 9th
straight divisional game on Thursday night (Opening
Night SEA v. GB was the only non-divisional game). Both of these teams
“win” their respective games by close, and similar, average margins (CLE 23-21; CIN 24-23). The difference in
this game is people expect the Bengal to win, which doesn’t always happen when
expected, and the Browns had low expectations entering this season, at least
relative to the Bengals, yet they keep finding ways to win. Both of these teams
are terrible at stopping the run (CLE –
31st; CIN – 30th), and both teams really only excel
in one aspect of the game (CLE – 8th-ranked
scoring defense; CIN – 9th rushing
yards), which should play right into the Bengals hands. Quarterback Brian
Hoyer could have tough time matriculating the ball down the field v. this good Bengals defense, with tight
end Jordan Cameron out and wide receiver Andre Hawkins questionable, although
Cincinnati is without key players on defense. With poor weather forecasted and
a superior run game, you have to give the nod to the Bengals.
The Browns came to play, and Andy Dalton and
the Bengals played terrible - that about sums up the game. The Browns snapped a
17-game losing streak within the division and held the Bengals to an abysmal
165 yards of offense and 2.6 yards per play. The good news out of Cincinnati
was the $1.3M raised for cancer research by the Bengals, sparked by Leah Still,
the daughter of defensive lineman Devon Still, who is battling pediatric cancer.
Kansas City Chiefs 5-3 (-2) @ Buffalo Bills 5-3 (41.5): Bills 23-21 Chiefs 17-13
Sunday, 1 PM, Ralph Wilson
Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 20% rain;
low 40s)
Reasons: At various
points in recent history this game is a channel-changer. In mid-season 2014 it
could be the game of the week. The Chiefs and Bills are two of the better
defenses in the NFL, ranking 2nd (KC) and 6th (BUF)
in scoring defense, while individually KC is the top-ranked pass defense and
Buffalo is the 8th-ranked run defense. The big difference here is
offense, where the Chiefs excel in the running game (6th), and the Bills excel at nothing offensively.
Whoops, remember the Bills have the 8th-rank run defense. They also
force turnovers (+7), and with the
Chiefs’ problems in that area (-2),
and the potential weather, I don’t see KC as two-point favorites on the road.
The Bills had many 4th quarter
chances to win this game and squandered every one of them. The Chiefs, on the
other hand, scored 14 unanswered 4th-quarter points to steal the
victory from the home town Bills. Buffalo dominated for the most part, but
three fumbles allowed the Chiefs to take control and ultimately win.
Miami Dolphins 5-3 (+3) @ Detroit Lions 6-2 (43.5): Lions 21-20 Lions 20-16
Sunday, 1 PM, Ford Field,
Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: One of the most
intriguing games of the week, the Dolphins are actually one of the best teams
in the NFL, and the Lions haven’t imploded yet, despite missing Calvin Johnson
the past few games. The Dolphins rank in the top-ten in both scoring offense (9th) and defense (3rd), rushing yards (4th) and rush defense (2nd), while the Lions are the
top-ranked scoring defense (16 ppg
allowed), and rank in the top-ten in passing yards (9th), pass defense (5th)
and rush defense (2nd). The problem is Detroit is one of the
worst rushing teams in the league (31st)
and they don’t’ score much (20 ppg – 24th).
Miami isn’t really bad at anything, and they force turnovers (+6), but Detroit is home and coming off
the bye. This is going to be a great, close game.
This game belonged to Matt Stafford and the
Lions’ defense, which held Miami to 228 yards on 3.8 yards per play. Stafford
hit Theo Riddick with 29 seconds left for the go-ahead score, and the Lions
overcame 10 penalties at home to beat one of the better teams in the league,
despite the cackling you hear when you say that a out loud. Calvin Johnson
returned to form Sunday, catching 7 of 15 targets for 113 yards and a TD;
Golden Tate’s game didn’t suffer at all – he caught 11 of 13 targets for 109
yards.
Dallas Cowboys 6-3 (-6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-8 (44.5): Cowboys 27-21 Cowboys
31-17
Sunday, 1 PM, Wembley Stadium,
London, England (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: What are the
Cowboys doing? Risking the health of Tony Romo to play the lowly Jaguars in
London is a transparent business move that might make Jerry Jones some initial
cash, but could cost him exponentially more cash if Romo is injured playing in
a meaningless game. I suppose no NFL game is meaningless, but Jacksonville is horrible, ranking in the bottom-ten in
passing yards (27th), pass
defense (25th), rush
defense (24th), scoring
defense (30th) and scoring
offense (last). JAX also boast the
league’s worst point differential (-12)
and rank towards the bottom in turnover ration (-9). The Cowboys remain one of the better teams in the league, but
are taking a serious risk.
The Cowboys rolled the dice and sent Tony Romo
into battle with a broken back and he survived. The same can be said for the “DeMarco
Murray for Greatest Running Back of All-Time” talk, which seems revived after
he ran for 100 yards on 19 carries (see, these teams DO watch the sports
shows). The day may have belonged to Romo, but Dez Bryant caught 6 of 8 targets
for 158 yards and 2 TDs, letting London know what the deal in Dallas really is.
The Jaguars hung in through the first quarter.
San Francisco 49ers 4-4 (+5) @ New Orleans Saints 4-4 (49): Saints 28-24 49ers
27-24 (OT)
Sunday, 1 PM, Mercedes-Benz
Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: This is a tale of
one of the best defenses in the NFL playing one of the best offenses in the
NFL. The 49ers are the 3rd-ranked pass defense; the Saints have the
3rd-ranked passing offense. The Saints have the 7th-ranked
rush offense; the 49ers have the 5th-ranked run defense. The
difference here is that the game is in New Orleans, where the Saints are a
different animal (33 ppg at home v. 25
ppg on the road), which should offset the Saints’ injuries at running back
and their horrible turnover ratio (-6).
What a stunner. Jimmy Graham caught what many
thought were the final two TDs of the game, including the go-ahead TD, only to
have Colin Kaepernick throw a 51-yard bomb to Michael Crabtree on 4th
down to set up the tying FG with 44 seconds left. Then Jimmy Graham might have
caught the final three TDs if he hadn’t been called for offensive pass
interference for slightly pushing cornerback Perrish Cox, after which Cox threw
himself to the turf, forcing the officials to throw the flag. The 49ers then
took over with defense, kicked the game-winning FG in OT, and stole the tough win
from the Saints on the road.
Tennessee Titans 2-6 (+9.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 5-4 (44): Ravens 27-17 Ravens
21-7
Sunday, 1 PM, M&T Bank
Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny,
mid-50s)
Reasons: Let’s just say
the Ravens are a far superior team at home in great football weather, and let’s
just leave it at that.
Exactly. The Ravens defense terrorized rookie
Zach Mettenberger and Justin Forsett rushed for 112 yards and two TDs on 20
carries.
Pittsburgh Steelers 6-3 (-5) @ New York Jets 1-8 (45.5): Jets 21-20 Jets 20-13
Sunday, 1 PM, MetLife Stadium,
East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny,
mid-50s)
Reasons: There’s no doubt
the Jets are one of the worst teams in the NFL, but the Jets defense, which
almost seems to be a different team, is one of the best in the league, believe
it or not. The Jets are 7th v.
the run, 6th in total yards allowed, and allow the second-fewest
first downs per game, yet the yield 28 ppg, good for 30th in the
NFL. The Jets offense is atrocious, ranking 30th in scoring offense
(17 ppg) and last in the league in
passing yards. The Jets are also the worst in the league in turnover ratio, at -15. All of this said, the Steelers are
not that good on the road, and boast the highest home/away point differential
of any team in the league (H – 33 ppg; A
– 11 ppg). 12 Big Ben touchdowns in past two weeks only solidify my notion
that the reeling Jets take advantage of the Jeckyl and Hyde Steelers and come
away with the much-needed win.
The entire county outside of New York…ok, this
Jets win may surprise the entire country, but not me. As I said, the Steelers
were coming off three straight home wins, two straight off-the-charts
performances in which Roethlisberger threw 12 TDs, and they were playing on the
road against a great front four on a reeling home team. That’s a wordy recipe
for a let down, and that’s exactly what happened.
Atlanta Falcons 2-6 (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-7 (46): Buccaneers 20-17 Falcons
27-17
Sunday, 1 PM, Raymond James
Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Chance
rain; low 70s)
Reasons: The last time
Tampa Bay played the Falcons was Week 3 in Atlanta and the Falcons embarrassed
them 56-14. In fact, the score was 56-0 by the 3rd quarter, and it
was 35-0 at the half. In other words, the Buccaneers have been thinking about
revenge for the past seven weeks. I won’t bore you with the statistics, because
both of these teams are bad, but I will say the Buccaneers win a close one at
home, despite the fact they score far less at home (15 ppg) than they do on the road (22 ppg). Many of those low-scoring losses were to good defense, of
which the Falcons are not.
A relatively evenly-matched game
statistically-speaking, three turnovers and 10 penalties did the Buccaneers in,
but hey, 27-17 is better than 56-14 any day.
Denver Broncos 6-2 (-11.5) @ Oakland Raiders 0-8 (49): Broncos 28-20 Broncos
41-17
Sunday, 4:05 PM, O. Co. Stadium,
Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny, mid-70s)
Reasons: The Broncos are
the far superior team and are coming of their worst loss of the season. The
Raiders are still winless and appear to only be competing for “Worst
Statistical Team”. The difference between Oakland and most of the other
terrible teams is the Raiders are full of veterans that won somewhere at some
point, and Derek Carr does appear to be a quarterback on the right path. All of
this only means that the Raiders consistently cover, or have for a few weeks
anyway, so I don’t see the Broncos winning by 12 or more points…more like 10 or
less.
Business as usual for the division-leading
Broncos, who took out their Patriots-loss anger on the hapless Raiders. Peyton
Manning did throw two more INTs, which is cause for concern, but he also threw
five more TD passes, which isn’t.
St. Louis Rams 3-5 (+7) @ Arizona Cardinals 7-1 (43): Cardinals 24-20 Cardinals 31-14
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix
Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Sunny,
low 80s)
Reasons: With recent wins
over the Seahawks (Week 7) and the
49ers (Week 9), the Rams may have
fooled a few people into thinking they’re better then they are, but Vegas isn’t
fooled. I’m not fooled either. Then again, are the Cardinals any less of a mystery? The Cardinals do have
the 3rd-ranked rush defense and the 5th-ranked scoring
defense, but it’s the turnover ratio (+10)
and Bruce Arians that has this team winning, which doesn’t end this week.
This was actually a pretty close game until
midway through the 4th quarter; in fact, Arizona was losing 14-10 until 7:40 in the 4th
quarter, at which point the Arizona Petersons scored their first of three
unanswered 4th-quarter TDs to take the lead and seal the seemingly
lopsided win. The tragedy for the Cardinals, although they’ve been dealing with
it all year, was the loss of Carson Palmer for the season to an ACL tear.
New York Giants 3-5 (+9) @ Seattle Seahawks 5-3 (44.5): Seahawks 27-20 Seahawks 38-17
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink
Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 80% rain,
low 50s)
Reasons: Even if the
Giants weren’t as bad as they are so far
this season, one would still be inclined to give the nod to the home team
Seahawks, who have only lost two games at home in the past two seasons. The
Seahawks still remain one of the most dominant defenses in the NFL, despite
potentially missing Maxwell and Chancellor Sunday. The weather s not going to
help the Giants out at all, but it’ll surely help the under. Seahawks roll.
The Seahawks rushed for 350 yards on 45 carries
for a whopping 7.8 ypc and five TDs, four by Marshawn Lynch, and the defense held
the Giants to 17 points in the muck to keep pace in the NFC West.
Chicago Bears 3-5 (+7.5) @ Green Bay Packers 5-3 (53.5): Packers 28-24 Packers
55-14
Sunday, 8:30 PM, Lambeau Field,
Green Bay, WI (Weather: 30% snow; low 30s)
Reasons: Classic NFC
North battle, rife with potential snow and freezing temperatures. We may be in
the middle of fall, but it could be a winter scene at Lambeau Field for the
visiting Bears, who are reeling to say the least. The Packers passing game is
in mid-season form, which is about all it takes v. these Bears, and Aaron Rodgers can zip it in the snow. Unless
Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Jay Cutler and he offensive coordinator get it
together by Sunday night, Rodgers could carve these guys up.
Aaron Rodgers threw for 6 TDs…in the first
half. The Bears are literally that bad.
Carolina Panthers 3-5-1 (+6) @ Philadelphia Eagles 6-2 (48): Eagles 27-21 Eagles 45-21
Monday,
8:30 PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Clear, low 50s)
Reasons: I wrote months
ago for isportsweb.com that the Panthers could potentially lose to the Eagles
on the road, in the midst of one of the more grueling parts of their schedule,
and that was before the Panthers began their slide into the abyss. It’s not
looking good for Carolina, which has quickly become one of the worst teams in
the NFL, statistically speaking; the Panthers are the 25th-ranked
scoring offense and defense. The
Eagles, on the other hand, are an offensive juggernaut (5th-ranked passing yards; 8th-ranked rushing yards; 4th-ranked
scoring offense), although they lost Nick Foles for the next month or more,
and will be trotting out Mark “Butt Fumble” Sanchez for the start. LeSean McCoy
is also questionable, so there is hope for the Panthers, especially considering
Philadelphia’s turnover ratio (-10),
but it’s slim hope at best.
It’s not looking good for the team I cover, and
Cam Newton might not survive the season at this rate. The offensive line is in
shambles, the running game is inept, and Newton either has no time, stands like
a statue, or makes you wince as he rushes the football, and the defense has now
given up an average of 27.9 ppg, after ranking second in the league in 2013
allowing only 15.2 ppg. The Eagles defense, on the other hand, was flying
around, no pun intended. All three phases of the Eagles’ game was flying as a
matter of fact, as they scored on offense, defense, and special teams. This
game was two teams dealing with adversity and soaring in opposite directions.
Check back Thursday and again Sunday for Week 11: #NFL Game Predictions
(w/ spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!
Thursday, October 30, 2014
Week 9: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 9: #NFL Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 9
results (season): 9-4 wins (90-43-1 .671); 6-7 v. spread (60-73-1 .448)
New Orleans Saints
3-4 (-3)
@ Carolina Panthers 3-4-1 (49): Panthers
24-21 Saints 28-10
Thursday, 8:25 PM, B of A
Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Clear;
low 50s)
Reasons: This is the
first game between the two teams that battled for the NFC South division through
2013, with the 12-4 Panthers taking the crown over the 11-5 Saints (both teams made the playoffs). It’s not
exactly the battle everyone expected when the schedules came out this year, as
both teams come in with losing records, but the division is still up for grabs,
which actually makes Thursday night’s game critical. The Saints still have
their juggernaut offense, ranking in the top-10 in passing offense (2nd) and scoring offense (5th). The problem is key
injuries at running back (Khiry Robinson
and Pierre Thomas) basically make that 7th-ranked rushing
offense obsolete. The Saints much-criticized defense actually has the league’s
10th-ranked run defense, which could come in handy against a
Panthers’ run game (27th)
that has been hurting - literally.
The Panthers are looking to get their running game back on track with DeAngelo
Williams returning after missing the last five games, but it won’t be easy with
such a banged-up offensive line. The Panthers are statistically bad, ranking
near the bottom of the league in both scoring offense (24th) and defense (25th),
but their +4 turnover ratio has kept them in games, something the Panthers
should take advantage of v. the
Saints (-6 turnover ratio). Carolina
should also take advantage of the Saints 31st-ranked pass defense,
which must have Cam Newton and rookie sensation Kelvin Benjamin drooling. I
expect the Panthers defense, which played well at home v. the Seahawks last week, to continue that trend, to capitalize on
those turnovers, and to beat a Saints team that doesn’t play well on the road (0-4).
So much for the Saints playing poorly on the
road. That said, this game was more about how badly the Panthers played at
home. Carolina’s offense mustered only 231 offensive yards and the Panthers’
formerly vaunted defense gave up 7.1 yards per play. These Panthers –
specifically Cam Newton – are in trouble.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-6 (+6.5) @ Cleveland Browns 4-3 (43.5): Browns 27-20 Browns
22-17
Sunday, 1 PM, First Energy
Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny,
low 40s)
Reasons: The Cleveland
Browns are a better football team than most people want to give them credit
for, and the Buccaneers are, well, horrible. One of the worst statistical teams
in the NFL, the Buccaneers have lost two games by over 30 points so far this
year. The Browns, on the other hand, have won many close battles, and finally
have the talent to justify the close wins. It shouldn’t be too close today.
So it ended up being closer than expected, but
then again the Bucs are far worse than expected, so perhaps all is right with
the NFL universe. Brian Hoyer threw for 300 yards and 2 TDs, once again
silencing the critics…for this week
Arizona Cardinals 6-1 (+1) @ Dallas Cowboys 6-2 (44): Cardinals 24-23 Cardinals 28-17
Sunday, 1 PM, AT&T Stadium,
Dallas, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Cowboys
could be starting their November-December slide early this year, as they
dropped their last game in October, albeit after six straight wins, to the
lowly Washington Natives and third-string quarterback Colt McCoy in overtime
Sunday. They face an Arizona Cardinals team that doesn’t stand out statistically,
but finds ways to win, usually as a function of turnovers (+9). Consider Tony Romo probably won’t
play due to the back injury he suffered v.
Washington and Arizona excels at stopping the run (3rd), and you pretty much have your winner. (Yes, I picked the same score v. the Eagles).
I’ll spare the Romo-less Cowboys the “annual
slide” jokes and just leave at this: the Arizona Cardinals are a great football
team. Period. Andre Arrington outrushed DeMarco Murray in both total yardage
and average, and the Cardinals defense held the Cowboys to 266 offensive yards,
and forced Brandon Weeden into two INTs.
Philadelphia Eagles 5-2 (-1.5) @ Houston Texans 4-4 (48.5): Eagles 27-24 Eagles 31-21
Sunday, 1 PM, Reliant Stadium,
Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Eagles
looked like they were rounding into form when the beat the New York Giants 27-0
Week 6 going into their bye week, but then they ran into the Cardinals on the
road and lost a tight battle, in which question resurfaced about the Eagles’
abilities to sustain the injuries they’ve suffered. The Texans aren’t a
juggernaut, but they have a similar style to the Cardinals on both sides of the
ball, and don’t turn the ball over (+4),
something Philadelphia does far too much of (-7). Eagles win a close one on the road.
Philadelphia won the battle, but may have lost
the proverbial war, as Nick Foles was lost for at least four weeks after breaking
his collarbone in the first half. That said, Mark “Butt Fumble” Sanchez (a.k.a.”
I Was Drafted 5th, Remember?”) threw for 202 yards and 2 TDs in his
wake, and there have been rumors the front office is growing weary of Foles.
Huh? Anyway, LeSean McCoy stayed on track, rushing for 117 yards, and Jeremy
Maclin (6 REC, 115 YDS, 2 TDs) lit it up. It’s not looking good for Houston –
Arian Foster was injured (again) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (4 sacks; 1 INT) has been
replaced by Ryan Mallet for Week 10.
New York Jets 1-7 (+9) @ Kansas City Chiefs 4-3 (42): Chiefs 24-17 Chiefs
24-10
Sunday, 1 PM, Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, MO (Weather: Windy, high 50s)
Reasons: Wow, the Jets
bad. At -15 on the season, the Jets “lose” their games by an average of 11
points per game (29-18) and have one
win, the first game of the season, against the lowly Oakland Raiders, who have
since surpassed the Jets in play. The quarterback situation alone in New York
is enough to call the game, with out even discussing Kansas City’s mercurial
rise over the past few games, save one close lose at San Francisco, which has
reestablished them among the league’s elite teams – statistically. Chiefs roll, but the prideful Jets cover.
The Chiefs seem to be rounding into mid-season
form, while the Jets seem poised to sabotage Rex Ryan’s last year with the New
York Jets. The one shining light may have been the performance of Percy Harvin,
recently acquired from the Seahawks, but it’s only a matter of time before the
two poisons known as Percy Harvin and the New York Jets collide and provide
enough material for New York beat writers for the next 50 years.
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-7 (+10.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 4-2-1 (43.5): Bengals 27-17 Bengals
33-23
Sunday, 1 PM, Paul Brown Stadium,
Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid-40s)
Reasons: The Jaguars are
improving, but even that modest improvement won’t be enough to beat a Bengals
team that is more difficult to project than New England weather. Speaking of
New England, the Patriots are the team that sent the Bengals into a tailspin
Week 4; the Bengals went 0-2-1 in their next three games, their two losses
coming by an average of 27 points. Then the Bengals go and beat the Baltimore
Ravens 27-24 and get the Jaguars Week 9. Don’t get me wrong, there’s always potential
for a trap game here, with the Browns up next, but the Jaguars are just too
bad, and Cincinnati is home.
The day belonged to Jeremy Hill, who rushed for
154 yards and 2 TDs, outshining Denard Robinson, yes that Denard Robinson, who
rushed for 94 and a TD himself. The Jaguars have some things to be happy about,
but they have nothing to do with their current record.
San Diego Chargers 5-3 (+2) @ Miami Dolphins 4-3 (45): Chargers 24-21 Dolphins 37-0
Sunday, 1 PM, Sun Life Stadium,
Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Reasons: This game could
be the toughest game to call this week. These two teams couldn’t contrast more
on offense: San Diego has one of the worst running games in the NFL (30th), mostly a function of
injuries at running back, but quarterback Philip Rivers has the Chargers
passing game ranked 8th; conversely, the Dolphins have one of the
worst pass games in the league (25th),
but have one of the strongest running
games in the NFL (6th).
Defensively, they’re identical. Both teams stop the run (SD – 6th; MIA- 3rd), and both teams are mediocre
at stopping the pass, which will play into San Diego’s favor. The Chargers were
once a part of the revolving door of “NFL’s best team”, and after dropping two
in a row, they’re looking to get back there with a statement win over the
Dolphins, who are a lot better than most people realize. Then again, the
Chargers are flying from San Diego to Miami for the daunting “early afternoon”
game.
Philip Rivers, many pundits candidate for
early-season MVP, threw for 138 yards and 3 INTs, and was sacked three times on
their way to the worst Chargers’ performance this season. The Chargers’
supposedly stout defense gave up 441 yards of offense and 37 points through the
3rd quarter, until both teams called it quits and went through the 4th
quarter motions. The Chargers are now 5-4 after taking the early season title.
Washington Natives 3-5 (+1) @ Minnesota Vikings 3-5 (43.5): Vikings 24-21 Vikings 29-26
Sunday, 1 PM, TFC Bank Stadium,
Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Sunny, high 40s)
Reasons: Ugh. Let’s put
it this way. I would’ve have picked the Vikings to win even if the Natives were starting McCoy, but
the fact that the front office insists on starting RGIII, over head coach Jay
Gruden’s wishes, and the team was involved in a team bus accident on their way
to the stadium seals it.
Matt Asiata went in from 1 yard out with 3:27
left to seal the win in a game that saw six lead changes. RGIII showed he’s
still a work in progress, but at least he has DeSean Jackson to throw to (120
receiving yards, 2 TDs). Alfred Morris added 92 rushing yards and 2 TDs to the
Native’s effort, which came up short yet again. Word on the street is the RGIII
nod came from above, which didn’t sit well with the team. Maybe RGIII should
stop calling it his team.
St. Louis Rams 2-5 (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 4-3 (44): 49ers 28-21 Rams
13-10
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium,
Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-60s)
Reasons: Not quite sure
about a 9.5 point spread, but I certainly see the 49ers winning. The Rams used
some trickery to beat the Seahawks, but then the Seahawks aren’t really as good
as people thought they were. The 49ers are coming off a crushing defeat, but
the Broncos actually are for real, made even more real this season by the
embarrassing loss they suffered at the hands of the aforementioned Seahawks.
Confused? So am I about the spread. The 49ers defense is still elite, which
cannot be said for the Rams (31st-ranked
scoring defense), not to mention the turnover ration differences between
the two teams (SF +4; STL -3), but
9.5 points?
Talk about a tough division. The 49ers v.
Seahawks NFC Championship game was widely considered the Super Bowl by many
fans and experts alike, and these Rams have now beaten both of them in the past
three weeks. If I had told you Austin Davis would throw for 105 yards and Tre
Mason would lead all rushers with 65 yards, you assume the 49ers defense
balled. They did, that’s the problem. Colin Kaepernick fumbled the ball at the goal
line, a microcosm of their offense throughout the game, and the Rams recovered
for the victory.
Denver Broncos 6-1 (-3) @ New England Patriots 6-2 (54): Patriots 28-27 Patriots
43-21
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Gillette
Stadium, Foxboro, MA (Weather: 60% wintry
mix; mid-40s)
Reasons: The public and
the spread might tell one side of the story, but the other side is more
compelling: these two teams are far more evenly matched than any Broncos’ fan
wants to realize. With the exception of excelling at different aspects on the
defensive side of the ball (NE - 2nd-ranked
pass defense; DEN - top-ranked run defense), these two teams excel in the
passing game, have mediocre run games, and “win” their respective games by
nearly identical margins (NE 30-22; DEN
32-20). The major factor here will be weather, as a wintry mix is
forecasted, which will offset the Patriots myriad injuries. The game could come
down to turnovers, as they so often do, and the Patriots excel at that better
than any team in the NFL (+11). If
this game was in Denver, or even if the weather was great, I could see Denver
winning. Not with Mother Nature and Rob Gronkowksi, her human-form of a disruptive
equal, affecting the game.
I’ll keep it short, so as not to appear to be gloating.
The reports on the death of Tom Brady and the New England were greatly exaggerated.
Oakland Raiders 0-7 (+14) @ Seattle Seahawks 4-3 (43): Seahawks 27-17 Seahawks 30-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field,
Seattle, WA (Weather: 60% rain; mid-50s)
Reasons: Again with these
ridiculous spreads. Public betting can certainly confuse people into thinking
that a team like the Seahawks might actually be a two-touchdown favorite over
the Raiders, but football fans know differently. I think. The Seahawks are no
2013 Seahawks, led by a bunch of guys people couldn’t see tucked away in the
Northwest corner, a running back who ate Skittles, a second-year 5’ 10”
quarterback, and a rah-rah coach who’s only real former NFL success was leading
the same Seahawks to the playoffs at 7-9. The Raiders are actually slowly
improving week to week, despite being winless, and losing their last two games
by 10+ points, especially the play of rookie quarterback Derek Carr. All of
that said, I’ll get real. Seahawks roll, I guess I just rant about ridiculous
spreads.
The Seahawks won, but it wasn’t pretty. The
Raiders may be better than many people would care to understand, but they’re
still terrible relative to the reigning Super Bowl champions, who were led in
rushing and receiving yards by one man, Marshawn Lynch, who only had 143
all-purpose yards. In other words, the Seahawks, despite scoring 30 points,
could have some trouble scoring down the road. Perhaps their defense reverts to
their 2013 form and scores the points for the offense if they plan on advancing
as far in 2014.
Baltimore Ravens 6-2 (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 5-3 (47.5): Ravens 27-24 Steelers
43-23
Sunday, 8:30 PM, Heinz Field,
Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Partly cloudy;
high 30s)
Reasons: Statistically
the Ravens should roll the Steelers. Numbers never lie, but they never tell the
whole story, which is that this is a NFC North battle. Remember when these two
team’s running games were in trouble because one team’s RB beat his wife unconscious
and the other team’s two RBs were smoking weed together? Well both teams rank 8th
and 9th in the running games, respectively. That reflection about
sums up what most people know about the league, and how easily it is to predict
division battles between two well-matched teams, let alone a NFC North game
between Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
What in Three Rivers is going on with Ben
Roethlisberger? Big Ben has thrown 12 TDs in his last two games after throwing
10 in his first six games. Roethlisberger threw for 340 yards, 140 of them to
Antonio Brown, outshining Joe Flacco (303 passing yards, 2 TDs) in a rout that
included 21 4th-quarter points (34 4th-quarter points
total).
Indianapolis Colts 5-3 (-3) @ New York Giants 3-4 (50.5): Colts 28-24 Colts 40-24
Monday,
8:30 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Clear, mid-40s)
Reasons: Don’t let the
Colts’ 51-34 loss to the Steelers in Pittsburgh and the aerial display by Ben
Roethlisberger fool you, Indianapolis is good. The Colts had won their previous
five games by an average of 18 ppg and ranked in or around the top-10 in all
six major points and yardage categories before “Big Ben” went real big and
destroyed the Colts, and the defensive pride they had built up. The one thing
the Colts don’t do well is defend the pass, so Eli Manning could have a big
day. The Giants are also coming off their bye week, and two straight losses, so
Tom Coughlin should have them well prepared. Then again, the last thing these
Giants probably needed was over two weeks off. The Giants will make the Colts
uncomfortable, but they’re too good to fall to the 3-4 Giants, who are still a
work in progress.
So I nailed the winner, and the Giants’ score,
but forgot how terrible the Giants’ defense is when they can’t get to the
quarterback. Andrew Luck continued his campaign for early season MVP, throwing
for 354 yards and 4 TDs, keeping him on a record-setting pace. Eli Manning
threw for 359 yards and 2 TDs himself, but much of that came in garbage time.
If these Giants don’t figure out their new offense quick, they’ll be looking to
2015, and with Odell Beckham Jr., the loss of Victor Cruz can’t be much of an
excuse.
See you Thursday and again Sunday for Week 10: #NFL Game Predictions
(w/ spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Week 8: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers could keep pace with the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos this week, or fall two games behind the most complete team in the NFL.
Week 8: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 8 results (season): 10-5 wins
(81-39-1 .669); 9-6 v. the spread (54-66-1 .446)
San Diego Chargers
5-2 (+7.5)
@ Denver Broncos 5-1 (51.5): Broncos
27-21 Broncos 35-21
Thursday, 8:25 PM, Mile High
Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Clear,
mid-60s)
Reasons: This could be
the best Thursday Night Football match up to date in 2014, and not just on
paper. These two teams are actually very good – both of them. The Chargers have the chance to tie the Broncos for
the division lead tomorrow night or they could end up two games back at the
mid-season point against a powerful team which will be ahead of the toughest
part of their schedule after their Week 9 game v. the New England Patriots. In other words, this is a big game for
San Diego. The Chargers lost a close game to a solid Chiefs team on a Cairo
Santos 48-yard FG with 21 seconds remaining, and dropped to 5-2; the Broncos
steamrolled the 49ers to improve to 5-1, their third straight blowout win
against solid defenses. These are two of the most evenly matched teams in the
NFL, and they happen to be bitter divisional rivals. Both teams have top-tier
passing games (SD – 6th; DEN –
3rd), but both teams have struggled running the ball (SD – 29th; DEN – 25th),
primarily a function of injuries. Defensively both teams excel, but in
different areas. The Chargers stop the pass (ranked 3rd), which will come in handy versus the Broncos
high-flying attack. The Broncos excel at stopping the run (ranked 3rd), which may not matter much here, save for stopping
Branden Oliver, which could slow the Chargers’ play action pass game. Neither
team allows many points scored against them (SD – 3rd; DEN – 6th), but the Broncos’ 4th-ranked
scoring offense will score just enough to win against a solid AFC West rival.
Hopefully The Curse of Thursday Night doesn’t ruin the potentially epic match
up.
Detroit Lions 5-2 (-3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 2-5 (47): Lions 24-21 Lions 22-21
Sunday, 9:30
AM, Wembley Stadium, London, England (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: This game starts
at 6:30 am if you’re on the west coast, so get your waffles ready. The Lions
were down 23-10 to New Orleans when they scored 14 unanswered points in the
final five minutes of the game, sending the Saints into a tailspin. The Falcons
have been in a tailspin since Week 2. With no defense to speak of the Falcons
don’t stand much of a chance against a statistically dominant Lions team,
especially considering the Falcons aren’t actually at home 4,200 miles away
from Atlanta.
Seattle Seahawks 3-3 (-5) @ Carolina Panthers 3-3-1 (44.5): Seahawks 28-24 Seahawks
13-9
Sunday, 1 PM, B o A Stadium,
Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny, high 70s)
Reasons: To say the
Panthers are reeling is an understatement; their formerly vaunted defense
having yielded 37-38-24-37-38 points to their last five opponents speaks
volumes to that. So if the pattern continues the Panthers should give up 24
point v. the Seahawks, which is about
what the Seahawks average, plus a FG (27
ppg – ranked 8th). That Panthers defense, ranked 2nd
in scoring defense (15.1 ppg) after
2013, ranks near the bottom of the league so far in 2014 (29th – 28 ppg). The Seahawks defense is a shell of its
2013 “self” as well, yielding nearly 10 additional ppg (24 ppg – ranked 19th) relative to the top-ranked 2013
squad (14.4 ppg). When we saw this
game on the schedule a few months ago we rejoiced; now one of these teams will
hit the midway point with a losing record, which is exactly where one of these
teams should be considering how they’ve played.
Chicago Bears 3-4 (+6) @ New England Patriots 5-2 (50): Patriots 28-21 Patriots
51-23
Sunday, 1 PM, Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny, high 50s)
Reasons: The Patriots
have quietly climbed back into the ranks of respectable teams, and have the
numbers to back it up, despite one of those wins coming v. the Jets. The Patriots have the 7th-ranked scoring
offense and the 12th-ranked scoring defense, and should have no
problem against an at best mediocre
Bears team that has already started to come apart at the emotional seems, as
they tend to do with Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall leading the team. The
Bears only excel in the passing game; the Patriots have the top-ranked pass
defense. The Patriots should roll at home.
St. Louis Rams 2-4 (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs 3-3 (44): Chiefs 27-21 Chiefs
34-7
Sunday, 1 PM, Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny, low 80s)
Reasons:
The Rams beat the Seahawks last week, which is exactly why they’ll lose on the
road against the Chiefs this week. Coming off an emotional win at home against
the defending Super Bowl champions, the Rams come into the formally loudest 12th
Man in football and play a superior team. Besides a surprisingly good passing
game (ranked 11th),
anchored by rookie quarterback Austin Davis, the Rams are pretty awful. The
Chiefs are not, ranking 2nd in pass defense, 3rd in run
offense and 6th in scoring defense. The Rams may cover, but they
won’t win.
Minnesota Vikings 2-5
(+3)
@ Tampa Buccaneers 1-5 (42): Buccaneers
24-21 Vikings
19-13 (OT)
Sunday, 1 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Reasons: One of the
week’s least compelling games, these two teams combine for a 3-10 record and
are categorically last in three major metrics (MIN – passing offense; TB – passing defense and scoring defense).
That’s right, Lovie Smith is coaching the league’s worst statistical defense,
and they’re worst at defending the pass - so much for the famed Tampa-2. Tampa
Bay’s at home and they’ve had two weeks to prepare; that has to be worth
something.
Buffalo Bills 4-3 (+3) @
New York Jets 1-6 (41): Bills
21-17 Bills 43-23
Sunday, 1 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny, mid-60s)
Reasons: Yet another
snoozer, don’t plan on seeing many conventional points scored in this game. The
Jets one strength – their defense - has wilted towards the bottom of the league
(26th-ranked scoring defense)
to join a Jets offense that has been there since the beginning (28th-ranked scoring offense).
The Bills offense isn’t much better, ranked 24th themselves, but
Buffalo’s 7th-ranked scoring defense, which is anchored by the
league’s 4th-ranked run defense, is the reason they’re about to be
5-3.
Miami Dolphins 3-3 (-6) @
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-6 (43): Dolphins
27-20 Dolphins 27-13
Sunday, 1 PM, Ever Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny, high 70s)
Reasons: Don’t get too
excited about the Jaguars first win. Although the team seems to be improving by
the week, the Dolphins are no joke. Ok, they’re a little joke, but they
shouldn’t be. The Dolphins can stop the run (ranked 3rd),
run the ball (ranked 4th),
rank 10th against the pass, and sit just outside the top-10 in
scoring offense (11th).
The Jaguars are none of those things, ranking in the bottom-five in five of six
major statistical categories, including last in scoring defense. The Dolphins
don’t have to go far to rain on the Jaguars first-win parade.
Houston Texans 3-4 (-2) @
Tennessee Titans 2-5 (43.5): Texans
24-21 Texans 30-16
Sunday, 1 PM, LP Field, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny, high 70s)
Reasons: Another snoozer
slated for Week 8, the Texans are rightfully favored v. the far-from-statistical Titans, which will be starting rookie
Zach Mettenberger against JJ Watt and the NFL’s 8th-ranked passing
defense. That’s about the only compelling matchup in this game.
Baltimore Ravens 5-2
(+1)
@ Cincinnati Bengals 3-2-1 (46): Ravens
27-24 Bengals 27-24
Sunday, 1 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny, high 60s)
Reasons: Once a circled
game a few weeks ago, the Bengals have gone from arguably the best team in the
NFL to arguably the worst after three straight games without a win. After
winning their first three games by an average of 15 ppg, Cincinnati has now
lost two games by an average of 27 ppg, and gave up 37 in there tie to
Carolina, a game they should’ve won if not for Mike Nugent’s 37-yard miss with six
seconds remaining. The Ravens, on the other hand, have quietly become one of
the NFL’s best teams, which is hard to argue considering they rank in the
top-10 in passing (9th)
and rushing (7th) offense,
passing defense (7th), and
scoring offense (6th) and
defense (1st). Why are the
Ravens getting one point then, you ask? Because they’re on the road, and the
Bengals do still have most of the players that made them a once-feared team
some three weeks ago. Also, the Bengals force turnovers. However, this is a
game of two trending teams, and you can imagine which teams are trending which direction.
Philadelphia Eagles
5-1 (+2.5)
@ Arizona Cardinals 5-1 (48): Cardinals
24-23 Cardinals 24-20
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Sunny, mid-80s)
Reasons: One of the more
intriguing games of Week 8 is the battle between two 5-1 teams, the NFL’s 8th-ranked
scoring offense (PHI) and 5th-ranked
scoring defense (ARZ), which also
boast the league’s 7th-ranked passing attack (PHI) against its 2nd-ranked pass defense (ARZ). The Eagles are certainly one of
the most interesting teams in the NFL, as their usually winning game plans have
gone to the wayside in lue of defensive touchdowns and special teams scores; in
other words, the complete opposite of what we expected. The Cardinals have
weathered the injury storm to not only stay afloat, but also stay on top of the
challenging NFC West at 5-1 - so much for losing Darnell Dockett and Daryl
Washington. Someone has to lose this game, and the Sharps apparently think
it’ll be Arizona (-2.5 at home), but
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals caught the Eagles slipping on the road
in the desert heat. With Carson Palmer back behind center, Larry Fitzgerald
taking form, and the Eagles Jekyll and Hyde play, it’s not that hard to
believe.
Indianapolis Colts
5-2 (-3)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 4-3 (49): Colts
28-24 Steelers 51-34
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Sunny, low 60s)
Reasons: Believe it or
not, the Colts could be the best team in the NFL. Ten teams have to rank in the
top-10 in any statistical category, which may not impress some people. To say
you’re in the 30th percentile isn’t eye-popping, so I understand if
some scoff at top-10 rankings. How about top-5 rankings though? The Colts have
four of those, which obviously include the Colts’ top-ranked pass game and
second-ranked scoring offense. I bet you didn’t realize those same Colts have
the 4th-ranked pass defense, the 9th-ranked run defense,
and the NFL’s 4th-ranked scoring defense? Most people don’t, either.
The Colts’ Achilles Heal has turned out to be a surprising strength, helping
Indianapolis beat their opponents by an average score of 31-19. The same can’t
be said for the Steelers, which have a mediocre defense to compliment a potent
offense led by Le’Veon Bell and the dynamic Antonio Brown. The Steelers have
won close games, but have been blown out in losses, which I expect to occur
tomorrow against the suddenly deadly Colts, who are two early close losses away
from being undefeated.
Oakland Raiders 0-6 (+7) @
Cleveland Browns 3-3 (43.5): Browns
28-21 Browns 23-13
Sunday, 4:25 PM, FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny, high 50s)
Reasons: The Browns slip
up and lose to the lowly Jaguars, giving Jacksonville their first win, and
suddenly everyone’s darling from a week ago is back to being some perennial
loser. What’s even more ridiculous is the anointing of Brain Hoyer as the
Browns’ savior, only to be talking about Johnny Football replacing him already
in the case of a bad performance v.
the Raiders! The media can be so ridiculous, hence my blog, which I’m sure
nobody reads. I will agree that if the Browns drop two in a row to the two
worst teams in the NFL that the hype will have been for not, but let’s wait
until Sunday night for that assessment. In the meantime the Browns are a
statistically mediocre team with some emotional wins that can run the ball (ranked 6th), while the
Raiders are an awful team that can sometimes stop the pass (ranked 11th). The Raiders
aren’t careful with the ball (-4),
which is something I expect the Browns (+3)
to take advantage of. Browns get back on track.
Green Bay Packers 5-2
(+1.5)
@ New Orleans 2-4 (55.5): Packers
28-27 Saints 44-23
Sunday, 8:30 PM, SuperDome,
New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: It must be
embarrassing for the 5-2 Packers to be getting 1.5 points against the 2-4
Saints, who are certainly a shell of their former selves, even being on the
road. Then again, it must have been embarrassing for Aaron Rodgers to watch
Alex Smith get drafted before him and then sit behind Brett Favre for four
years, but he endured that, too. The days of me believing in the Saints solely
because they were home currently hold about as much water as that same feeling
for the Atlanta Falcons. In other words, I don’t buy the home field advantage
hype with New Orleans anymore, especially with their number one weapon still
hobbled. The Packers are for real, and Rodgers is just getting warmed up. Expect
a high-scoring affair as both teams have top-10 scoring offenses (GB – 4th; NO – 9th),
and Drew Brees still commands the league’s 2nd-ranked passing
attack, and will go throw-for-throw against the new(er) guy on the block. One
interesting statistic to this game: turnovers. Green Bay leads the NFL in
turnover ratio (+10), while the
Saints are near the bottom (-8). That
could be the name of the game, as it has been for both of these teams so far in
2014.
Washington Natives
2-5 (+9.5)
@ Dallas Cowboys 6-1 (50): Cowboys
30-21 Natives 20-17 (OT)
Monday, 8:30 PM, AT&T
Stadium, Dallas, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Saints may
rank near the bottom of the league in turnover ratio, but Washington is the worst team in the league (-9, tied with NYJ). The Cowboys don’t
take the ball away much, but if you give them extra chances they’ll kill you.
Dallas enters Monday Night Football as arguably the best team in the NFL, right
there along with the Colts, and just like the Colts, a surprising Dallas defense
has been a big reason for the Cowboys’ first half success. Sitting at 6-1, the
Cowboys have the NFL’s top-ranked running attack to compliment the league’s 5th-ranked
scoring offense. What’s surprising is the Cowboys’ 9th-ranked
scoring defense, which hasn’t squandered any leads, making Tony Romo’s life
much easier. The Natives 4th-ranked passing game is an elusion
perpetuated by Kirk Cousin’s early success; Cousin’s has since lost his job.
The only thing the Natives are good at is stopping the pass, and they’ll soon
be bad at that, too. The Cowboys won’t help their “best team in the NFL” case
this week, but that’s only because of their opponent.
Check back Thursday and again Sunday for Week 9: #NFL Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!
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