Week 19: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) DIVISIONAL ROUND

2017 NFL SEASON

D I V I S I O N A L   R O U N D

Week 19: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)

Wild Card Round: 2-2 wins; 3-1 v. spread

Note/Key: Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3^rd-down efficiency (3^rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN).

 That's right, Matt Ryan, you're the first road favorite against a top conference seed in NFL history, which means the NFL flavor-of-the-month could see a few flying batteries.

Atlanta Falcons #6 (-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles #1 (41): Falcons 21-20

Saturday, 4:35 PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Clearing; high 30s)

Reasons: The Falcons seem like the hottest team in the NFL right now, and the case could be made; Atlanta is 4-1 over their last five games and has only allowed an average of 16.8 ppg over that span. Conversely, the Eagles went from the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl with MVP-candidate quarterback Carson Wentz at the helm to losing Wentz for the season and going 3-2 over their last five games of the regular season with an average point differential of 0.2 ppg over that span, compared to having the best point differential in the NFL during the regular season (10.1 ppg). Neither team gets after the quarterback consistently, although the Falcons seemed to have found a new gear over their last several games, but the Eagles league-leading run defense should put the game squarely on Matt Ryan’s shoulders. That could go either way because although Ryan is inconsistent at best, the Eagles pass defense is mediocre at best and Mohammed Sanu has become a serious threat opposite Julio Jones. The Falcons have a slight advantage in the kicking game, but equalizing atmospheric pressure will create just enough wind to make kicking a challenge, so the game could come down to two extremely important, but often overlooked stats: time of possession and turnovers. If the Falcons (18^th) can secure the ball as well as the Eagles did all year (4^th) and keep the Eagles from hoarding the ball (1^st in time of possession) this game could come down to something as silly as a missed extra point. Having said that, the suddenly hot Falcons could realistically come in and destroy the rested-in-a-negative-way Eagles, lest we forget, no top seed has ever been an underdog in their opening playoff game.

 "I don't really give a shit, Tom, I can't have Guerrero telling my players that hydration cures sunburns. And your jealousy over Jimmy G screwed me."

Tennessee Titans #5 (+13.5) @ New England Patriots #1 (48): Patriots 27-20

Saturday, 8:15 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: 70% rain; high 40s)

Reasons: The Patriots come into the game banged up with a patchwork offensive line and key skill position guys either missing or questionable (O: Chris Hogan, Rex Burkhead, James White; D: Alan Branch, Marquis Flowers) and the Patriots are still going to manhandle the Titans. I could go on analytically for paragraphs why the Patriots match up well with Tennessee and will overwhelm the Titans in every aspect of the game Saturday, save perhaps the Titans 4^th-ranked run defense, which would only put more of the onus on Tom Brady to step up, which has never been a problem in the first place, but especially not when a young cocky defensive player from the opposition (Free safety Kevin Byard) opens his mouth during the week and provides bulletin material. Truth be told, the media provided all the bulletin material the Patriots needed to galvanize the team with the bombshell story that the Patriots had cracked from within and that ownership, Brady and Bill Belichick were at serious odds. Even if true, which it very well could be, to think the Patriots won’t use this excuse to circle the wagons would mean you haven’t been paying attention to New England since Bill Belichick took over. The Patriots only statistical weakness is yardage allowed, including the worst pass defense in the NFL despite a defensive backfield that boasts Devin McCourty, Stephon Gilmore, Malcolm Butler and Patrick Chung; much of that can be explained away by garbage yardage statistics perpetuated by teams desperately trying to come back on a team that beat their opponenets by an average of 10 ppg this season, best in the NFL. The Titans only chance of winning in Foxborough Saturday is if their 5^th-ranked pass rush (43 sacks) gets to Brady early and often and Derrick Henry carries the ball 40 times and burns 38 or more minutes of the clock. Neither is out of the realm of possibilities.

 The Pittsburgh Steelers are inexplicably favored by a touchdown against the best defense in the NFL, which means we could be seeing a lot of this Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars #3 (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers #1 (41): Jaguars 24-23

Sunday, 1:05 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: 20% snow; low 20s)

Reasons: Star running back Le’Veon Bell was out of this game until the late hours of Friday night, meaning that even if he plays he’s not going to be 100%. Spare me the “No one is 100% at this point in the season” talk because no one is randomly listed as “OUT” if they only have a few scratches. Guess who else is questionable? Antonio Brown. That’s only the Steelers two best skill position players. Center Maurice Pouncey was listed as OUT Friday night as well, meaning the Steelers would have their work cut out for them against the Cleveland Browns, let alone the best defense in the NFL. The Jaguars come into Pittsburgh, a team they beat 30-9 while intercepting Ben Roethlisberger five times Week 5, ranked 2^nd in points allowed, yards allowed sacks, and interceptions, respectively, while boasting the league’s top pass defense. Offensively the Jaguars rank 6^th in yards gained (366 ypg), 5^th in points scored (26.1), 3^rd in point differential (9.2), and 2^nd in red zone efficiency. Using statistical analysis and taking the Steelers attrition at key positions into account, not to mention the shell of the former defense the Steelers ave been without Ryan Shazier, and I can’t come up a single reason why the Steelers would be giving seven points to the Jaguars. Even the argument that the Steelers match up with or surpass the Jaguars by the same metrics, and are playing at home, doesn’t explain seven points, especially when Pouncey, Bell and Brown could be less than 100% or even absent. Las Vegas is really leaning on Pittsburgh’s top-ranked pass rush and 5^th-ranked pass defense to beat up on poor old Blake Bortles. Even if true, I wouldn’t hang my hat on that against this Jaguars defense, and certainly not for seven or more points.

 Drew Brees has become arguably the greatest statistical quarterback in NFL history, which is what it'll take to beat one of the greatest single-season defenses in NFL history.

New Orleans Saints #4 (+5) @ Minnesota Vikings #2 (46.5): Saints 24-21

Sunday, 4:40 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: How lucky are the New Orleans Saints? Not only do they get the 4:40 Sunday afternoon slot again this week, but also get an away game in the comfy confines of a domed stadium, just like home. And before we go on and on about how great the Vikings defense is, and it most certainly is (allowing 11.4 ppg over their last five games), let’s not forget two things: The Minnesota Vikings are basically noobs at this playoff thing as of late, while the Sean Payton-Drew Brees combo is most certainly not new to this playoff thing, while Drew Brees is becoming the greatest statistical quarterback we’ve ever seen. Much of Brees’ career has been plagued by the presence of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but the truth is Brees holds the highest completion percentage of any quarterback in NFL history and is slowly creeping up on the greats in many other passing metrics, which isn’t surprising considering Brees has thrown for over 5,000 yards five times; no other quarterback comes close. Any time you have a transcendent player like Brees anything is possible, and this Saints defense is quietly becoming as interesting as the vaunted Vikings defense. Consider: The Vikings are ranked 2^nd in both total defense (276 ypg) and scoring defense (15.8 ppg), but aren’t really ball hawks and don’t really get after the quarterback; the Saints give up far more yards, but rank 10^th in points allowed (20.4 ppg) and are top-seven in the NFL in both sacks (42) and interceptions (20; 5^th). While we’re at it, though, we might as well praise a Vikings offense that surprisingly keeps pace with the Saints, much in the same way the Saints defense keeps pace with the Vikings defense. The Vikings are no barn burners, but they rank 11^th in yards (357 ypg), 10^th in points scored (23.9 ppg), 9^th in red zone efficiency (44%), 3^rd in third-down efficiency and were 15 seconds of ball possession per game from being the league leader. So while the Saints defense stacks up against the defense the media has raved about all season, the same could be said about the Vikings offense relative to the high-flying Saints. Expect an amazing game where the experience of Sean Payton and Drew Brees play out right on that beautiful domed dry turf grass.

Stay tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 19 #NFL Reviews DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION coming Wednesday.

ProFootballMedia.com

@ProFootballMed

Tuesday's Gone: Week 18 #NFL Game Predictions WILD CARD ROUND

2017 NFL SEASON

Tuesday's Gone: WILD CARD ROUND

Week 18: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)

Wild Card Round: 2-2 wins; 3-1 v. spread

2017 regular season final wins record: 146-76 (.655): 66%

2017 regular season final spread record: 98-120-5 (.439): 44%

Note/Key: Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3^rd-down efficiency (3^rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN).

Tennessee Titans #5 (+8.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs #4 (44.5): Chiefs 28-21 Titans 22-21

Saturday, 4:20 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, KS (Weather: Sunny; high 20s)

Reasons: Using the statistics referred to in the note above the Titans come into the Wild Card Round of the playoffs the weakest team of the eight. That’s not a hot take considering the Titans are the 5^th seed, but even the 6^th-seeded Buffalo Bills finished in the top-ten in twice as many of the aforementioned statistics. Of those two metrics the only meaningful one may be the Titans ability to get after the quarterback, where they ranked 5^th with 43 sacks. Tucked away in Tennessee’s 13^th-ranked total defense is a great run defense (4^th), which will come in handy against a rookie running back who should not only win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but could arguably be the league MVP in Kareem Hunt (1327 rushing yards; 8 TDs). Tennessee will need that pass rush against a Chiefs offense that ranks in the top-ten in point differential (10^th), time of possession (9^th), points scored (6^th), yards gained (5^th), time of possession (2^nd) and yards per play (2^nd), not to mention a 4,000-yard passer in Alex Smith (26 TDs; 5 INTs) and that Hunt guy we were talking about. Tennessee will also need a big day from their own running back Derrick Henry considering DeMarco Murray is out for the game, which could be easy considering Kansas City is 25^th against the run. The Titans had an inconsistent season to say the least, and the same could be said about the Chiefs, but Kansas City is home at Arrowhead with more talent than the Titans, despite various injuries, and the Chiefs season was bookended by 5- and 4-game winning streaks, the latter of course being current.

Kansas City led 21-3 at the half. What’s worse is the Chiefs had a 91.2% win probability at the beginning of the 4^th quarter when the Chiefs still led 21-10. 52 seconds into the 4^th quarter the Titans made it a five-point game and suddenly the Wild Card Round of the playoffs for the Chiefs was beginning to look like a microcosm of their season. The Titans scored 19-unanswered points in the final 24 minutes of the game to erase an 18-point Chiefs lead, the third largest blown lead in Chiefs playoff history. The second largest lead ever blown in Chiefs playoff history, 21 points to the Indianapolis Colts, also came under Andy Reid, and suddenly the Chiefs find themselves in the same position the Philadelphia Eagles annually found themselves in: Always the bride’s maid, never the bride. Adding insult to injury was Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, coming off his worst season as a pro, catching his own pass to score the game-winning touchdown. Only the second such occurrence in NFL history (Brad Johnson, Minnesota Vikings, 1997), Mariota threw a pass intended for the end zone, but the pass was batted down by the corpse of Darrell Revis right into the hands of a clearly shocked Mariota, who very smartly dove for the pylon and scored the go-ahead touchdown. Give the Titans all their due credit, and blame some of this game on the officiating (an official actually retired after this game), but this game was Kansas City’s season wrapped up in one disappointing playoff game. Once again it’s wait until next year, but next year might be without Alex Smith, and maybe even Andy Reid.

Atlanta Falcons #6 (+6) @ Los Angeles Rams #3 (48.5): Rams 27-23 Falcons 26-13

Saturday, 8:15 PM, LA Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Cloudy; high 60s)

Reasons: The reigning NFC champs barely made it to the playoffs, which is actually quite a feat considering the amount of teams that historically miss the playoffs the year following a Super Bowl appearance. The Falcons did in part to a 6-2 second-half record and in part by becoming one of the better defenses in the NFL, ranking in the top-ten in points against (8^th) and yards allowed (9^th), both much better than a Rams defense that gets far more media coverage, while sacking the quarterback 39 times (13^th). That’s not really surprising as the Falcons are coached by Dan Quinn, and actually may even raise questions of “Why not sooner?” considering Quinn was the mastermind behind many of those great recent Seattle Seahawks defenses. The Falcons offense is a shell of it’s record-breaking 2016 self, but still remains one of the most explosive offenses in the league (3^rd yards per play; 8^th yards gained) as well as one of the league’s most efficient (1^st 3^rd-down efficiency). The Rams are simply one of the best teams in the NFL, period. Los Angeles dominates both sides of the ball, anchored by players like MVP-candidate Todd Gurley (1305 rushing yards; 13 TDs) on offense and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Aaron Donald (11 sacks; 5 forced fumbles; 1 TD) on defense. Combine a Rams team that is close to or surpasses the Falcons in nearly every meaningful metric to the fact the Rams owned Dan Quinn when he was a Seahawks coach and about the only thing left is the Falcons playoff experience over the young Rams team that has exactly none. The Falcons will get after Jared Goff, but that pass rush will likely only set up Gurley, and the Rams are just too talented on both sides of the ball.

The lights were too bright for the young Rams, MVP-candidate Todd Gurley didn’t reach that magical 20 touches needed for a Rams win, and the suddenly stout Falcons defense continues to morph into the speedy Seahawks defense Dan Quinn used to coach. Those were three keys to a game in which all three young Rams stars – Aaron Donald, Todd Gurley and Jared Goff – played well, while the Falcons stars were mediocre, save the typical All-Pro performance from Julio Jones (9 receptions for 94 receiving yard; 1 TD). The biggest key to the game, however, was time of possession, where the Falcons held a 15+ minute advantage. Generally unheard of in the NFL, teams that hold the ball for 15 or more minutes than their opponents are 19-1 this season. The reason is obvious enough, as a Rams team that led the NFL with 30 ppg managed to score only 13 points. The Rams still managed 64 plays, however, only eight fewer plays than Atlanta, which again points to a suddenly stout Falcons defense, responsible for forcing the only two turnovers of the game, both Falcons fumbles. No one wants to play the Atlanta Falcons right now except for maybe their division rival Saints. How the hell did the NFC South send three good teams to the playoffs?

Buffalo Bills #6 (+8.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars #3 (39.5): Jaguars 27-17 Jaguars 10-3

Sunday, 1:00 PM, EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Windy; mid-50s)

Reasons: The Buffalo Bills do the “little” things right. They don’t commit a lot of penalties (9^th), they hold on to the ball (7^th in turnover ratio) and they are very efficient on 3^rd down (6^th). The Bills also ball hawk, ranking 6^th in the league in INTs (18). Buffalo also backed into the playoffs in the most miraculous fashion imaginable, which, after a 17-year playoff drought, might seem like the kind of miracle that has destiny written all over it. I’m not so sure Destiny picked this route. The Jacksonville Jaguars, for years the laughingstock of the AFC, and perhaps the entire NFL, are suddenly ranked in the top-ten (top-six, technically) in ten of the 13 statistics mentioned in the opening note in addition to ranking 11^th in the league yards per play (0.1 ypp separates 11^th from 9^th). The Jaguars are one clearly one of the best teams in the NFL, but the defense really separates them from the rest of the league. In addition to being the No. 2 defense in total defense and points allowed, the Jaguars rank 2^nd in both sacks (55) and INTs (21). In other words, they’ll smother Tyrod Taylor and put all the pressure on LeSean McCoy, which probably won’t go so well. Interestingly the Jaguars rank 4^th in the NFL in sacks allowed, which should allow Blake Bortles (3,687 passing yards; 21 Ts; 13 INTs), largely considered to the Jaguars Achilles Heal until this season, to operate freely while the Jaguars defense dominates an overwhelmed Bills offense.

Holy shit this game was boring, but it did tell us two things: One, the end of the Bills 17-year playoff drought really did just come in the form of a placeholder for the AFC’s 6^th seed, and second, that Nathan Peterman really is terrible. The game told us absolutely nothing about the Jaguars because A) Blake Bortles ran for more yards than he threw for, meaning we’re still confused about Bortles as a quarterback, and B) the Bills put up absolutely no fight on offense, gaining only 263 total yards in over 32 minutes. The Jaguars could be an all-time great defense, but it’s hard to measure them against history when their competition was the AFC South or the Bills in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs; even the Jaguars two interception weren’t impressive considering one came against Nate Peterman in the final minutes of the game. Now the Jaguars head into Pittsburgh to face the Steelers in the Divisional Round; last time Jacksonville played the Steelers this season they picked off Ben Roethlisberger a career-high five times.

Carolina Panthers #5 (+7) @ New Orleans Saints #4 (48): Saints 27-24 Saints 31-26

Sunday, 4:40 PM, Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: Conventional wisdom says the Panthers won’t lose to their division rival three times in one season, but the simple fact is the Saints are at home, making that task a little non-conventional for Carolina. The Saints also won those two regular season games 34-13 (Week 3) and 31-21 (Week 13), by an average margin of 15.5 points, and during bookend parts of the season in which both teams were well established. In other words, it’s hard to point to many, if any, significant reasons why the Saints would have dominated both games besides the fact they’re the better team. If you want to point to Cam Newton still recovering from his off-season surgery when the Saints beat Carolina Week 3 one could counter that the Saints were 0-2 when they decidedly beat the Panthers that week. Most people familiar with these two teams will immediately assume a classic defense v. offense football game, in which the Drew Brees-led Saints try to air it out against the vicious front seven of the vaunted Carolina defense. That still rings true to some degree, but most fans would be shocked to see the Saints defense tied the Panthers in points allowed (20.4 ppg; 11^th). The Saints also get after the quarterback, ranking 7^th in the NFL with 42 sacks; by comparison the Panthers rank 3^rd in the NFL with 50 sacks, but Carolina doesn’t protect against the against the pass rush as well as the Saints do, who ranked 2^nd in the league in sacks allowed (20), which means Drew Brees could be upright most of the day. Cam Newton might not be upright all day, but he’ll come into New Orleans fired up, where he is 3-4 all-time in the Superdome with out any playoff games. I imagine the Saints will be a lot more fired up, and let’s be honest; the Saints are a much better team at home (7-1 in 2017), and probably in general. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen three teams from the NFC South make the playoffs, especially considering the NFC South is usually trash, so it’ll be tough to have to watch one of these teams go home after the Wild Card Round, because both are capable of making their own long playoff runs.

The third time turned out to not be a charm as the Panthers dropped a rare three games to the Saints this season, twice via regular season divisional matchup and one via cruel playoff scheduling fate. The Panthers held probable Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara to only 23 yards on 10 carries and Cam Newton (349 passing yards; 2 TDs) had one of those games where he outshined Drew Brees (376 passing yards; 2 TDs; 1 INT), arguably the greatest thrower of the football in NFL history, yet it wasn’t enough for the Panthers to overcome the Saints, who went from a team no one even considered at the start of the season into a bona fide Super Bowl contender, if not for that devastating injury to left guard Andrus Peat. The Saints offense could suffer without Peat, especially the ground game, which had been one of the best in the NFL, but Peat’s absence won’t effect the Saints defense much, which sacked Cam Newton four times and defended seven of his passes. Although New Orleans gave up 413 total yards, they only allowed 4.1 yards per rush and 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Cam Newton showed tremendous growth both on the field late in the game and after the game, although he did throw his teammates under the bus by claiming they were satisfied with merely being in the playoffs. You know what, nothing is ever going to change in Carolina, especially if P Diddy buys the team.

Stay tuned for Week 19 #NFL Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION coming Saturday morning.

ProFootballMedia.com

@ProFootballMed

Week 18: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) WILD CARD ROUND

2017 NFL SEASON

W I L D   C A R D   R O U N D

Week 18: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)

2017 regular season final wins record: 146-76 (.655): 66%

2017 regular season final spread record: 98-120-5 (.439): 44%

Note/Key: Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3^rd-down efficiency (3^rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN).

The Kool Aide Man could have a one-way ticket to New England, where they’ve been waiting for 18 weeks to exact revenge. The Titans should be no problem, right?

Tennessee Titans #5 (+8.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs #4 (44.5): Chiefs 28-21

Saturday, 4:20 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, KS (Weather: Sunny; high 20s)

Reasons: Using the statistics referred to in the note above the Titans come into the Wild Card Round of the playoffs the weakest team of the eight. That’s not a hot take considering the Titans are the 5^th seed, but even the 6^th-seeded Buffalo Bills finished in the top-ten in twice as many of the aforementioned statistics. Of those two metrics the only meaningful one may be the Titans ability to get after the quarterback, where they ranked 5^th with 43 sacks. Tucked away in Tennessee’s 13^th-ranked total defense is a great run defense (4^th), which will come in handy against a rookie running back who should not only win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but could arguably be the league MVP in Kareem Hunt (1327 rushing yards; 8 TDs). Tennessee will need that pass rush against a Chiefs offense that ranks in the top-ten in point differential (10^th), time of possession (9^th), points scored (6^th), yards gained (5^th), time of possession (2^nd) and yards per play (2^nd), not to mention a 4,000-yard passer in Alex Smith (26 TDs; 5 INTs) and that Hunt guy we were talking about. Tennessee will also need a big day from their own running back Derrick Henry considering DeMarco Murray is out for the game, which could be easy considering Kansas City is 25^th against the run. The Titans had an inconsistent season to say the least, and the same could be said about the Chiefs, but Kansas City is home at Arrowhead with more talent than the Titans, despite various injuries, and the Chiefs season was bookended by 5- and 4-game winning streaks, the latter of course being current.

 The potential NFL MVP Todd Gurley and the Rams offense could have his work cut out for him against an Atlanta Falcons defense that is almost as quick as he is.

Atlanta Falcons #6 (+6) @ Los Angeles Rams #3 (48.5): Rams 27-23

Saturday, 8:15 PM, LA Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Cloudy; high 60s)

Reasons: The reigning NFC champs barely made it to the playoffs, which is actually quite a feat considering the amount of teams that historically miss the playoffs the year following a Super Bowl appearance. The Falcons did in part to a 6-2 second-half record and in part by becoming one of the better defenses in the NFL, ranking in the top-ten in points against (8^th) and yards allowed (9^th), both much better than a Rams defense that gets far more media coverage, while sacking the quarterback 39 times (13^th). That’s not really surprising as the Falcons are coached by Dan Quinn, and actually may even raise questions of “Why not sooner?” considering Quinn was the mastermind behind many of those great recent Seattle Seahawks defenses. The Falcons offense is a shell of it’s record-breaking 2016 self, but still remains one of the most explosive offenses in the league (3^rd yards per play; 8^th yards gained) as well as one of the league’s most efficient (1^st 3^rd-down efficiency). The Rams are simply one of the best teams in the NFL, period. Los Angeles dominates both sides of the ball, anchored by players like MVP-candidate Todd Gurley (1305 rushing yards; 13 TDs) on offense and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Aaron Donald (11 sacks; 5 forced fumbles; 1 TD) on defense. Combine a Rams team that is close to or surpasses the Falcons in nearly every meaningful metric to the fact the Rams owned Dan Quinn when he was a Seahawks coach and about the only thing left is the Falcons playoff experience over the young Rams team that has exactly none. The Falcons will get after Jared Goff, but that pass rush will likely only set up Gurley, and the Rams are just too talented on both sides of the ball. 

 The Buffalo Bills need a healthy LeSean McCoy if they stand a chance against the Jacksonville Jaguars and their vaunted defense and McCoy is questionable.

Buffalo Bills #6 (+8.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars #3 (39.5): Jaguars 27-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Windy; mid-50s)

Reasons: The Buffalo Bills do the “little” things right. They don’t commit a lot of penalties (9^th), they hold on to the ball (7^th in turnover ratio) and they are very efficient on 3^rd down (6^th). The Bills also ball hawk, ranking 6^th in the league in INTs (18). Buffalo also backed into the playoffs in the most miraculous fashion imaginable, which, after a 17-year playoff drought, might seem like the kind of miracle that has destiny written all over it. I’m not so sure Destiny picked this route. The Jacksonville Jaguars, for years the laughingstock of the AFC, and perhaps the entire NFL, are suddenly ranked in the top-ten (top-six, technically) in ten of the 13 statistics mentioned in the opening note in addition to ranking 11^th in the league yards per play (0.1 ypp separates 11^th from 9^th). The Jaguars are one clearly one of the best teams in the NFL, but the defense really separates them from the rest of the league. In addition to being the No. 2 defense in total defense and points allowed, the Jaguars rank 2^nd in both sacks (55) and INTs (21). In other words, they’ll smother Tyrod Taylor and put all the pressure on LeSean McCoy, which probably won’t go so well. Interestingly the Jaguars rank 4^th in the NFL in sacks allowed, which should allow Blake Bortles (3,687 passing yards; 21 Ts; 13 INTs), largely considered to the Jaguars Achilles Heal until this season, to operate freely while the Jaguars defense dominates an overwhelmed Bills offense. 

 Cam Newton has carried the Carolina Panthers for much of his career on the offensive side of the ball and it'll take another Herculean effort from Newton to beat the Saints on the road Sunday.

Carolina Panthers #5 (+7) @ New Orleans Saints #4 (48): Saints 27-24

Sunday, 4:40 PM, Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: Conventional wisdom says the Panthers won’t lose to their division rival three times in one season, but the simple fact is the Saints are at home, making that task a little non-conventional for Carolina. The Saints also won those two regular season games 34-13 (Week 3) and 31-21 (Week 13), by an average margin of 15.5 points, and during bookend parts of the season in which both teams were well established. In other words, it’s hard to point to many, if any, significant reasons why the Saints would have dominated both games besides the fact they’re the better team. If you want to point to Cam Newton still recovering from his off-season surgery when the Saints beat Carolina Week 3 one could counter that the Saints were 0-2 when they decidedly beat the Panthers that week. Most people familiar with these two teams will immediately assume a classic defense v. offense football game, in which the Drew Brees-led Saints try to air it out against the vicious front seven of the vaunted Carolina defense. That still rings true to some degree, but most fans would be shocked to see the Saints defense tied the Panthers in points allowed (20.4 ppg; 11^th). The Saints also get after the quarterback, ranking 7^th in the NFL with 42 sacks; by comparison the Panthers rank 3^rd in the NFL with 50 sacks, but Carolina doesn’t protect against the against the pass rush as well as the Saints do, who ranked 2^nd in the league in sacks allowed (20), which means Drew Brees could be upright most of the day. Cam Newton might not be upright all day, but he’ll come into New Orleans fired up, where he is 3-4 all-time in the Superdome with out any playoff games. I imagine the Saints will be a lot more fired up, and let’s be honest; the Saints are a much better team at home (7-1 in 2017), and probably in general. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen three teams from the NFC South make the playoffs, especially considering the NFC South is usually trash, so it’ll be tough to have to watch one of these teams go home after the Wild Card Round, because both are capable of making their own long playoff runs.

Stay tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 18 #NFL Reviews WILD CARD ROUND EDITION coming Wednesday.

ProFootballMedia.com

@ProFootballMed

Tuesday's Gone: Week 17 #NFL Game Reviews FINAL WEEK EDITION

2017 NFL SEASON

Tuesday's Gone: Week 17 #NFL Game Reviews

Week 17: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)

Week 17 results: 6-4 wins (season*: 146-76; .655); 3-7 v. spread (season*: 98-120-5; .439)

2017 regular season final wins record: 146-76 (.655): 66%

2017 regular season final spread record: 98-120-5 (.439): 44%

ProFootballMedia had their worst season calling games in three years.

 

Note: The following previews are for games with playoff implications only, some of which are merely seed positioning. Week 17 is an exciting week considering they’re all divisional match ups, many of which are lopsided, giving the underdog division rival a chance to play spoiler. 

Tuesday's Gone note: I apologize for forgetting to post the BALTIMORE RAVENS vs. CINCINNATI BENGALS game, which had playoff implications. Baltimore ultimately lost the game and missed the playoffs.

Chicago Bears 5-10 (+12) @ Minnesota Vikings 12-3 (39.5): Vikings 27-17 Vikings 23-10

Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Frigid)

Reasons: The Vikings need a win over the hapless Bears at home to secure the #2 seed in the NFC or they need help from the Saints (win), the Rams (win) or the Panthers (loss).

Minnesota took care of business and will now likely take advantage of Philadelphia's late-season misfortune, as the Eagles have lost their MVP-candidate quarterback in Carson Wentz for the season and backup Nick Foles has not looked consistent.

New York Jets 5-10 (+15.5) @ New England Patriots 12-3 (43): Patriots 28-21 Patriots 26-6

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny; teens)

Reasons: The Patriots need to win to secure the #1 seed in the AFC; if they lose they’ll need the Pittsburgh Steelers to lose as well, otherwise they’ll be the #2 seed.

The Patriots secured the top AFC seed yet again and will get all the rest and home field advantage they need to make another Super Bowl run, which would be their 8th in 17 years. For perspective the Buffalo Bills made the playoffs this season for the first time in 17 years.

Cleveland Browns 0-15 (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 12-3 (37): Steelers 27-20 Steelers 28-24

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Chance snow; teens)

Reasons: The Steelers need to win and the New England Patriots to lose for Pittsburgh to secure the #1 seed in the AFC, otherwise Pittsburgh secures the #2 seed in the AFC.

Pittsburgh benched Ben Roethlisberger while beating the Browns handily while the New England Patriots were locked in a close game with the New York Jets. Ultimately the Patriots won easily, while the Steelers struggled, which makes Mike Tomlin seem like he knows what he's doing, but Pittsburgh isn't in a great spot mentally heading into the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers 11-4 (+3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 9-6 (45): Falcons 24-23 Falcons 22-10

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mercedes-Benz Dome, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: If the Falcons win they’re in the playoffs, otherwise my preseason prediction was correct and I can feel like I know something. The Panthers are in no matter what happens, but Carolina has the largest variance of any playoff-bound team, as their seed could land anywhere from #2-#5 in the NFC. The #2 seed would require a win and a Minnesota Vikings loss; the #5 seed would be the result of a loss and a New Orleans Saints win.

The man who fancies himself as Superman couldn't even lead his team to a victory over the inconsistent Falcons, although the game was in Atlanta, where the Falcons are usually better. Guess who's also better at home? New Orleans. Exponentially. Let's see what Superman does now that they squandered the 4th seed and now have to travel to New Orleans. Whoops.

New Orleans Saints 11-4 (-7) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-11 (50.5): Saints 30-21 Buccaneers 31-24

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)

Reasons: The Saints should enter the playoffs as the #4 seed in the NFC, but could climb as high as #3 with help from the Los Angeles Rams (loss).

The Saints lost an opportunity to climb higher in the seeding, but it doesn't really matter because they'll host the Carolina Panthers anyway (2-0 in the regular season), which might be a better match up for them than the Atlanta Falcons (1-1 in the regular season).

Arizona Cardinals 7-8 (+9.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 9-6 (38.5): Seahawks 27-20 Cardinals 26-24

Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)

Reasons: The Seahawks need to win and the Atlanta Falcons need to lose for the Seahawks to make the playoffs as the #6 seed in the NFC.

What a hugely disappointing season for the Seattle Seahawks, and for my prediction for them to reach the Super Bowl (my alternate was Green Bay - kill me), and my thinks things will only get worse from here considering the franchise favors Russell Wilsopn far too much and the initial coddling of defensive superstars has backfired in Herculean ways. We're about to see just how good a coach Pete Carroll really is. 

San Francisco 49ers 5-10 (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Rams 11-4 (43.5): 49ers 24-21 49ers 34-13

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Los Angeles Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)

Reasons: The Rams secure the #3 seed with a win, but that might difficult against the hot hand of Jimmy Garoppolo, especially with the Rams planning to sit many of their key starters.

Everyone knew this would happen. 

Buffalo Bills 8-7(-2.5) @ Miami Dolphins 6-9 (42.5): Dolphins 23-21 Bills 22-16

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)

Reasons: Buffalo needs to win and they need the Tennessee Titans to lose in order to start crunching the numbers to see if they actually make the playoffs. It’s a long shot for Buffalo, but Bills fans are just happy to be in the position to make the playoffs for the first time in 17 years. 

Everyone is shocked this happened. Not beating Miami, but making the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars 10-5 (+3) @ Tennessee Titans 8-7 (42): Jaguars 24-20 Titans 15-10

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; low 20s)

Reasons: The Titans need to win to secure the #6 seed in the AFC and they just happen to be playing the team that owned their division and much of the NFL, defensively. The Jaguars already won the division and don’t have anything to play for so it’ll be interesting to see if they want the Titans season to end Sunday or next week.

For Jacksonville fan's sake I will go ahead and assume the Jaguars shared my philosophy heading into this game and figured the playoffs would be much better off with Marcus Mariota rather than Phillip Rivers and that Chargers defense.

Oakland Raiders 6-9 (+8) @ Los Angeles Chargers 8-7 (42): Chargers 24-17 Chargers 30-10

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Stub Hub Center, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)

Reasons: The game many thought would have huge playoff implications for the AFC and the AFC West alike actually panned out to be a semblance of that. The Chargers need to win and have the Tennessee Titans lose to get into the playoffs as the #6 seed in the AFC, but something tells me the Jacksonville Jaguars would rather have the Titans in the playoffs than the Chargers, so we’ll see how that goes.

The Disappointment Bowl ended as expected, but the Chargers didn't get the help they needed for their miracle run to the playoffs after starting the season 0-4, which means I still think no team to ever start 0-4 has ever made the playoffs in the NFL history (check that for me and then apply as a research intern). The Chargers are left optimistic, but with the NFL underachiever award, which they barely beat out the Oakland Raiders to win it. 
 

2017 NFL Playoff Standings:

AFC:

1. NEW ENGLAND
2. PITTSBURGH
3. JACKSONVILLE
4. KANSAS CITY
5. TENNESSEE
6. BUFFALO

 Bill Belichick tells Tom Brady to get his corny trainer out of the Patriots locker room so they can prepare for yet another Super Bowl run that goes through New England.

NFC:

1. PHILADELPHIA
2. MINNESOTA
3. LA RAMS
4. NEW ORLEANS
5. CAROLINA
6. ATLANTA   

The Philadelphia Eagles are the NFC's top seed, but all is not good in Philadelphia as they lost MVP-candidate Carson Wentz for the season and backup Nick Foles has been mediocre.

 

Stay tuned for Week 18: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) WILD CARD ROUND EDITION coming Saturday morning.

*Minus two weeks due to technical difficulties

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