2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 12: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
SUNDAY EDITION
SUNDAY EDITION
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 11:
11-3 .786 (WINS); 9-4-1 .692 (ATS); 9-5 .642 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
107-53-1 .670 (WINS); 84-73-4 .535 (ATS); 90-68-3
.570 (O/U)
WEEK 11 TOP 5 GAMES:
3-2 (.667)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
34-19-2 (.642)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro
Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5
and watch the money pile up all season!
Deshaun Watson has been light out during prime time games in his entire career and Thursday Night Football qualifies, believe it or not. (Image credit: Twitter)
Indianapolis
Colts 6-4
(+4)
@ Houston Texans 6-4
(45.5):
Texans
27-24
Thursday, 8:20 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: The
winner of this game will
lead
the AFC South, but the Colts already won the first head-to-head
match up, so if the Texans lose Thursday night they’ll be one game
back with only five games to go without any tiebreaker leverage. It
should also be noted the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6)
face the Tennessee Titans (5-5)
Sunday, meaning at worst the losing team will still only be three
games back; the winner will be tied with the loser of this game.
Houston and Indianapolis
don’t just have the same record, they match up well statistically
and
personal-wise. According to Pro Football Reference the two teams rank
11th
and 13th,
respectively, in SRS, meaning if they played on a neutral field it
would be a pick game. Well, the game is in Houston, where the Texans
are 3-1, and they literally can’t afford to lose. The Colts will be
without Marlon Mack, but Jonathan Williams rushed for 116 yards in
his absence Week 11. The
Texans also excel at run defense, ranking in the top-10 in attempts
(10th),
yards allowed (5th),
TDs (9th)
and ypa (3rd).
The
Colts come in with the better defense to face the Texans superior
offense, but neither teams is dominant in one phase over the other
team’s. Speaking
of defenses, both are banged up at key spots, so I would strongly
consider the over on the short week as the Texans get the close
divisional win at home.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: The
Falcons win a couple games in a row and suddenly they’re spread
darlings. Well, not really, because the Buccaneers can only go as far
as Jameis Winston can see without glasses, which isn’t very far.
Winston leads the NFL in INTs and is on pace to turn the ball over
more than any player in their first five years. All that means is you
can’t trust him, and therefore, you can’t trust Tampa Bay. The
Falcons throw the ball more than any team in the league, and pretty
well, but they’re
one-dimensional; Atlanta is also one of the four worst running teams in
the NFL. The Falcons defense is abysmal and doesn’t take the
ball away at all (31st).
So even if you account for the home field advantage, how are the
Falcons favored? Well, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are almost mirror
images of the Falcons, except for the
quarterback-leading-the-league-in-INTs thing, and because of that, turn the ball over more than any team in the league.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather:
Cloudy;
low 40s)
Keys:
This
should be about as boring as any game so far this season as
both
possess two of the best defenses in the NFL. I
suppose whether that means the game will be boring or not is
subjective. The Broncos can run the ball behind Phillip Lindsay (4.9
ypa)
and Royce Freeman (4.0
ypa),
but the Bills excel at the run, ranking in the top-10 in attempts (9th),
yards (8th),
TDs (9th)
and ypa (8th).
The funny thing is both teams play the run well, but play the pass
great. So look for both teams to become one-dimensional and watch the
time fly off the clock as the Bills narrowly keep pace with the New England Patriots in the AFC
East.
Maybe
the key to the game is kicking, so
those typical Buffalo late November winds should play well.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Cloudy;
low 40s)
Keys:
The
Giants throw the ball the 5th
most in the NFL and they have Saquon Barkley. Let
that sink in. The Giants will also be without TE Evan Engram. The
Bears rank 8th
in rush yards allowed and 4th
in ypa, which
will probably force the Giants to showcase their new toy, but the
Bears rank in the top-10 in passing yards allowed (10th),
TDs (3rd)
and ypa (9th).
The
Bears offensive ineptitude is only matched, or maybe even surpassed,
by the Giants defensive ineptitude, so the keys to the game is the
Bears shutting down rookie Daniel Jones, which if they can’t do,
they might as well pack it in now.
The moment you realize Tua got hurt and even if he recovers fully he might be injury prone and you just watched your team suck for 11 weeks on purpose for no reason.
Pittsburgh
Steelers 5-5
(-6.5)
v. Cincinnati Bengals 0-10
(39):
Steelers
17-13
Sunday,
1:00
PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather:
Partly Sunny;
low 50s)
Keys: Mason
Rudolph had to fend off apparent false accusations of racism as the
reason why Myles Garrett tried to kill last week, so how focused on
the lowly Bengals can he be? Much like the Arizona Cardinals, I’ve been
on the Bengals several times this year; they’re 2-4 ATS this season
in games where their opponents are favored by 10 or fewer points.
That’s significant considering they’re win-less this season, yet
have managed to cover 33% of the games that weren’t expected to be
tv-turning blowouts. Well, not only is the Steelers QB distracted,
center Maurice Pouncey is suspended via the Garrett
incident, and RB James Connor and WR Ju Ju
Smith-Schuster didn’t practice all week. That’s not a great sign,
but keep in mind, the Bengals are all-time bad. Look for the Bengals
to cover at home in a low-scoring game.
Miami
Dolphins 2-8
(+10.5)
@
Cleveland Browns 4-6
(44):
Browns
24-21
Sunday,
1:00
PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather:
Partly cloudy; low 70s)
Keys: It
figures the following game review is the other team involved in the
Garrett incident. The Browns will be without Garrett for the year and
possibly beyond now after he lost his appeal based on the
unsubstantiated claim Rudolph used a racial slur. Without him the
Browns defense is bad, because they won’t get to the QB anymore,
which exposes everything. Luckily for Cleveland the Browns face the
Dolphins, who were brought back to Earth last week after two wins in a row. Now
that Tua is hurt the Dolphins don’t look like idiots for
squandering the 2019 season, and therefore, the top pick in the draft, but Brain Flores isn’t built like
that anyway. The Browns are banged up like they like to bang people up, so
in addition to the multiple suspensions, guys like OBJ and Jarvis
Landry were limited all week. Look for the Dolphins to cover this
ridiculous spread on the road against a team that will claim they’re
rallying, but they’re really just rattled.
Carolina
Panthers 5-5 (+9.5)
@ New Orleans Saints 8-2
(47):
Saints
27-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: It’s
hard to believe these two teams have statistically-equivalent
offenses; one just throws the ball (NO)
and one runs it (CAR).
The big difference here are the defenses and that’s even harder to
believe. The Saints have the superior defense, and by a long shot,
especially against the run. Go figure. The Panthers do excel in
takeaways, ranking 5th
in the NFL; the Saints rank 1st
in TOs. Oh well. There’s a reason the Saints are favored by more than 10
points, and it’s not just
because
Kyle Allen has been awful, but
the last time the Saints lost it was because the Atlanta Falcons
sacked Drew Brees six times; the Panthers enter Sunday leading the
NFL in sacks (39).
If
New Orleans fixed the protection problem it’s a route, but if they didn’t
the Panthers could win this game outright, let alone cover.
*Oakland
Raiders 6-4 (-3)
@ New York Jets 3-7
(46.5):
Raiders
27-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
80% rain;
high 40s)
Keys:
The
Jets are the top rushing defense in the NFL. That’s the only thing
you could say about the Jets in a positive light other than the
defense doesn’t bend, but it breaks. Huh? The Jets rank 13th
in yards allowed, but 24th
in points allowed (25.5
ppg).
The offense isn’t worth talking about other than to say the
acquisition of Le'Veon Bell has done nothing for the Jets besides help the defense
become the top rush defense. New York ranks 26th
in attempts, 31st
in yards, 24th
in TDs and 31st
in ypa after signing one of the league’s most dynamic free agent RB. The Raiders are better than the Jets in nearly every
facet of the game, which means the Jets only advantage is the
transcontinental flight for the 1 PM game, but for all I know the
Raiders spent the week practicing in northern
Pennsylvania
somewhere. The
Raiders getting 3.5 points is one of my Top-5 bets of the week,
because
even if it pours Oakland has Josh Jacobs.
* = OAK COVER
Wait a minute...is John Gruden a genius?
*Seattle
Seahawks 8-2
(+1.5)
@ Philadelphia Eagles 5-5
(48): Seahawks 27-24
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather:
60%
rain; high 40s)
Keys: This
game was reportedly flexed from the night game (!)
to the 1 PM slate. What disrespect! That must mean the BALvsLAR game
was flexed into that spot, which would be strange considering it’s
the lesser of two games, with identical implications. Why is the
JAXvsTEN in the late afternoon slate of games? That’s more
watchable that this game? I digress. The Eagles are coming off a
tough loss at home to the New England Patriots after another Nelson
Agholor drop in the end zone. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are
still riding the magic carpet known as Russell Wilson, while the
defense, although mediocre, is 4th
in the league in takeaways. Sometimes analytics wins the argument and
sometimes it’s just a gut feeling. I wouldn’t bet anything on the
Eagles right now and I wouldn’t dare bet against Wilson, so that
about sums it up. *
= SEA OUTRIGHT
Sunday,
1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather:
20%
rain; low
50s)
Keys: The
Pigskins were crushed by the lowly NY Jets last week 34-17,
while the Lions took the Dallas Cowboys to the brink with some dude
named Jeff Driskel. Suffice it to say the Lions are favored by 3.5 on
the road for a reason. The Lions are no world-beaters, but they were
a top-10 passing offense under Matthew Stafford and they clearly
didn’t fall off a
cliff
last week (Driskel
accounted for 3 TDs). The Pigskins are so bad their opponents are setting weekly attendance
records.
Jacksonville
Jaguars 4-6 (+3)
@ Tennessee Titans 5-5
(41.5):
Titans
24-17
Sunday,
4:05
PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather:
Sunny;
low 50s)
Keys: The
closest division in football found its leader Thursday night, but
every team in the division is still relevant, which means I have to
review this game. It’s
Derrick Henry time. Not just in the context of the time of year, but
this mediocre Jaguars defense is pretty good against the pass (8th
yards allowed),
but really bad against the run (29th
yards allowed).
The opposite can be said for the Jaguars and Leonard Fournette, who
face a Titans defense that ranks 9th
in ypa. The Jaguars also rank last in the league in rushing TDs; the
Titans happen to rank 2nd
in rushing TDs allowed. Considering neither team does well in the
air, although there have been drastic improvements in Tennessee since
Ryan Tannehill took over, the game should become one-dimensional
rather quickly and the Titans and Henry should win out in a close,
low-scoring divisional game that
will ultimately decide 3rd
place in the AFC South.
*Dallas
Cowboys 6-4
(+6.5)
@
New England Patriots 9-1
(46):
Patriots
24-20
Keys:
Most
analysts want to point to the Patriots one weakness on defense, their
run defense (24th
ypa),
but
those bad numbers have only produced two rushing TDs. Granted, the porous run
defense leads to scoring regardless, but only to the tune of 10.3 ppg
(1st).
No, I’m concentrating on the weather, which besides Tom Brady, Bill
Belichick and the AFC East, has been New England’s greatest weapon.
Oh, so you play in a dome half the season, Peyton Manning? Come to
Foxborough in January in a Nor’easter and let’s see how many
passing yaahds you get. The point is, some of the best teams in the
NFL struggle in ideal weather conditions in New England, let alone
dome teams in terrible winter weather who have been underachieving all season to
say the least. If
Ezekiel Elliot could
get going in the bad weather, the Patriots could be in trouble,
because every time they get another “weapon” they lose them to
injury (Mohamed
Sanu)
or worse (Antonio
Brown).
That likely won’t happen, because Elliot hasn’t been himself
lately, which is largely a function of attrition along the offensive
line, and if you think we’re aware of the Patriots run-stopping
woes you can rest assured Bill Belichick has already devised a
scheme. I always sound like a homer picking the Patriots, but are you
betting against the Patriots at home in winter weather against a dome team? I didn’t think
so, but 6.5 points is way too much for these Patriots against these
Cowboys, unless that weather really shuts Dallas down. * = DAL COVER
We could be seeing a lot of this come Sunday night because the 49ers lead the NFL with 39 sacks, which is nearly four per game.
*Green
Bay Packers 8-2 (+3)
@ San Francisco 49ers 9-1
(46.5):
Packers
24-23
Sunday,
8:20
PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather:
Clear;
mid-40s)
Keys: I
don’t necessarily like the Packers to win, but I do like Aaron
Rodgers getting three points against a 49ers offense that could be
without George Kittle and Matt Breida again, not
to mention tackle Joe Staley.
The
defensive side is a lot healthier, however, save for Dee Ford, and
that could be a problem for Rodgers considering the 49ers lead the
NFL in sacks (39),
and tackle Bryan Bulaga was
limited all week while Cole Madison is out.
The
only thing the 49ers don’t do well is stop the run, so there’s
hope if Aaron Jones can get going early and set up play-action for Green Bay’s hobbled WR/TE corps the Packers could win. The 49ers will fall at some point
in the mighty NFC before the playoffs shape out, and it could very
well be against these Packers at home with key guys out. * = GB OUTRIGHT
Monday,
8:15
PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather:
Clear;
mid-50s)
Keys:
This
has been a weird week for spreads, but this one takes the cake. How
in the world are
the Ravens not 3-4-point favorites minimum?
I suppose the Rams are better than we think. The defense is top-10 in
points (10th)
and yards allowed (10th),
rushing yards (5th),
rushing TDs (10th),
rush ypa (2nd),
pass ypa (5th)
and takeaways (8th).
The
offense is hovering around the top-10 in points scored (11th)
and yards (13th),
but it’s deceiving; the only thing the Rams do well is gain empty passing
yards in bunches and score rushing TDs. The 6-4 record and
questionable wins among the six are all the evidence one needs. The
Ravens are balling, now 5/1 odds to win the Super Bowl, which of
course is a public overreaction to their recent success, but is it?
The masses aren’t always
asses, and people are in love with Lamar Jackson, and for good
reason. The Ravens might become the first team in NFL history to
average 200 yards passing and
rushing per game for an entire season, and Jackson will likely lead
the team in both unless Mark Ingram (667
rushing yards)
surpasses him. The Ravens are just plain good, leading the NFL in scoring
and in every rushing metric while not turning the ball over (4th)
to compliment a 6th-ranked
scoring defense that takes the ball away (6th).
Put your house on the Ravens and your kid’s college fund on the
over. * = BAL OUTRIGHT
Week 12 Byes: Arizona Cardinals; Kansas City Chiefs; Los Angeles Chargers; Minnesota Vikings
Stay tuned for the remaining Week 12: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Saturday!
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