2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 11: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
SUNDAY EDITION
SUNDAY EDITION
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 10:
6-7 .462 (WINS); 6-6-1 .500 (ATS); 5-8 .385 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
96-50-1 .658 (WINS); 75-69-3 .521 (ATS); 81-63-3
.563 (O/U)
WEEK 10 TOP 5 GAMES:
4-1 (.800)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
31-17-2 (.646)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Some thought it was a joke, but the truth is Baker Mayfield is closer to selling shower rings than he isn't. (Image credit: AP)
Pittsburgh
Steelers
5-4
(+2.5)
@
Cleveland Browns 3-6
(41.5):
Steelers
23-20
Thursday,
8:20 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather:
Partly cloudy; low 30s)
Keys: Ahh,
that’s more like it. After a few weeks the Steelers had a losing
record, no Ben Roethlisberger and a defense with a few questions,
while the Browns were still riding high on the allusion their egos
alone would get them to Super Bowl LIV. Now we’re past the
mid-season point and the Steelers are 5-4 and own one of the best
defenses in the NFL after the once-questionable Minkah Fitagerald
trade, while the Browns are doing Browns things. At least the weekly
Baker Mayfield meltdowns have been worth it. As for the actual match
ups, the Browns don’t rely heavily enough upon the running game,
because they only rank 21st
in carries despite ranking 2nd
in ypa. What do you know, the Steelers rank 7th
in defensive rush ypa. If the Browns can get the ground game going, which won't be easy, it could open up doors for the Browns, because Pittsburgh's suffocating pass defense could be without Joe Haden. That’s assuming Mayfield can even get the ball off, because
it’s been a problem
all year and the Steelers rank 3rd
in the NFL with 33 sacks. The Browns rank 10th
in sacks themselves, but they’ll be without Olivier Vernon, who
is third on the team in sacks
(3.0),
meaning the Steelers can focus on blocking Myles Garrett, who not only leads
the Browns in sacks (10.0),
but is tied for 3rd
in the NFL. As long as Pittsburgh can keep Nick Chubb from busting
off multiple big runs the pass rush should get to Mayfield enough
that Cleveland will have trouble generating points. The Steelers
have allowed an average of 14.25 ppg over their four-game winning
streak, and the Browns have managed just 18.25 ppg in their four home
games (1-3). The Browns are coming off a mock win against the Buffalo Bills and
Cleveland is barely a road game for the Steelers (137 miles), so look for Pittsburgh
to win outright. Once again the O/U remains one of the toughest
calls of the week.
Dallas
Cowboys 5-4
(-7)
@ Detroit Lions 3-5-1
(48):
Cowboys
27-17
Sunday,
1:00
PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: Matthew
Stafford is out with a broken back so the only question is, how much
do the Cowboys win by? Ok, that’s a dangerous thing to suggest
considering the “any given Sunday” principle and the Cowboys are
banged up to say the least. The truth is the Cowboys are one of the
only teams in the NFL ranked in the top-10 in both scoring offense
and defense and
yards gained and
allowed, and
are
still loaded with talent on both sides of the ball regardless of
attrition. The Lions, on the other hand, are only good at one thing: Gaining chunks of yards...with
Stafford at QB.
Jacksonville
Jaguars 4-5 (+3)
@ Indianapolis Colts 5-4
(43.5):
Colts
24-20
Keys:
Nick
Foles returns just in time to play against Frank Reich, a guy who
knows Foles about as well as anyone in the NFL. Whose genius idea was
this? Have we given up on Minshew Mania already? The Jaguars come
into Indianapolis well-rested, while the Colts had eight players (4
O & D)
that didn’t practice all week. That likely explains the 3-point
spread because the Colts are getting 2-3 points just for being at
home. Or maybe it’s the fact that these teams are pretty similar,
at least in terms of record and point differential (Colts:
0.2 ppg; Jaguars: -1.4 ppg).
One key to the game is the Colts offensive line keeping Brissett
upright against Calais Campbell, who ranks 4th
in the league in sacks for DTs (5.5).
The Colts will have more luck, no pun intended, blocking for Brissett
than the Jaguars will blocking for Foles, especially from the right
side of the line. Therein lies the other key. The Colts have to keep
pace in the AFC South, so look for them to take advantage of a rusty
Foles and get the win and the cover.
Buffalo
Bills 6-3
(+3)
@ Miami Dolphins 2-7
(40.5):
Bills
24-17
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Keys: The
Dolphins have won two games in a row and suddenly bettors are racing
to take the points. The thing is, until the Dolphins scored 24 points
in their first win against the New York Jets Week 9 their 21-point
explosion on the Bills during Week 7 was their largest output of the
2019 season. That’s saying a lot against the 3rd
ranked defense in the NFL (scoring
defense; yards allowed; pass yards; pass ypa),
a rank that hasn’t budged anymore than their defense has against
opposing teams. Ranks don’t tell the whole story, of course, and
they certainly don’t account
for trends over the course of half a season, but
a two-game winning streak can’t hide the fact the Dolphins are
statistically one of the worst teams in the NFL, if not the worst.
Von Miller remains one of the few bright spots on the Denver Broncos.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
(Weather: Indoors)
Keys: This
is a classic top offense (MIN:
9th
scoring; 8th
yards)
v. top defense (6th
scoring; 4th
yards allowed)
game, but the Vikings can actually defend, too, and the Broncos have
one of the worst offenses in the NFL. That
doesn’t even take into account the discrepancy in TOs (MIN:
7th;
DEN: 24th)
or the Broncos terrible 1-3 road record. The Vikings keep the record
clean at home, but winning by more than 10 points might be tough
against this stout Denver defense, especially with Adam Thielen out
again.
Keys: Drew
Brees came back after a long absence from
thumb surgery and
won handily against the Arizona Coverbusters two
weeks ago, so naturally they followed that up with the biggest upset
of the year last week, losing 26-9 to the Atlanta Falcons after being
favored by as much as 14.5 points. This a tough one. I don’t trust
Jameis Winston as far as he can see without glasses, but the Saints
can’t afford to travel anywhere...come to think of it they’d be
playing in mostly domes come the playoffs (DAL;
MIN).
OK, so they don’t want to end up in Seattle. The point is the
Bucs are 31st
in the league in TOs, despite being one of the best passing attacks
in the NFL, because Winston leads the league in INTs. Winston’s
lucky because Marshon Lattimore (1
INT)
might not play, but Winston will likely still throw it to the Saints,
who need to get back on track and keep pace in the NFC.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Mostly cloudy; high 40s)
Keys: Give
me a break this game sucks. The Pigskins trot out the unprepared
rookie Dwayne Haskins again with a depleted backfield to a Jets
defense that could’ve stopped the run anyway, so it was all on the
rookie to begin with. Yikes.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Mostly Sunny; high 50s)
Keys: The
Falcons are flying high after their stunning upset win against the
New Orleans Saints, but the Panthers are trying to stay in the
playoff hunt, where they remain tied with two teams (LAR;
PHI)
for the 7th
seed, but sit on the outside looking in due to tiebreakers. That
chalks up to a hunger the Falcons don’t have and we’re
all aware of the potential letdown following an emotional win. The
Falcons are actually great against the run (7th
ypa)
and the Panthers excel
against the pass (1st
sacks; 4th
ypa),
so believe
it not, this game will likely come down to TOs, where the Panthers
are 4th
in takeaways and the Falcons are 26th
in TOs. For the record the Falcons are also 32nd
in takeaways, so it’s not like Atlanta is returning the favor.
No JJ Watt, no problem...so far.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Mostly cloudy; low 40s)
Keys: Only
the NEvsPHI game could be argued as more compelling and that’s
simply not the case because these two teams have faced tougher
schedules and/or haven’t failed to live up to expectations through
mid-season. In other words, this is probably the game of the week.
Without a doubt the game features the two most dynamic QBs in the
league. These two teams mirror each other in that they both possess
elite offenses, hinged upon great running games, with mediocre
defenses; both teams are also
nearly
top-10 in both TOs and takeaways. The
difference in TOs for 9th-ranked Baltimore
and 12th-ranked Houston is only one. Food for thought: Bill
O’Brien is 4-1 following a bye in his five years a Texans head coach, and every game has
been on the road. * = HOU COVER & OVER
*Arizona
Cardinals 3-6-1 (+10)
@ San Francisco 49ers 8-1
(45): 49ers 27-20
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather:
Sunny; mid-70s)
Keys: I
just can’t stay away from these Cardinals. How can you? They’re
constantly double-digit underdogs and led by a dynamic ROY candidate. They're also 7-3 ATS. The key is Kyler Murray doesn’t turn the ball over
(1st
TOs).
That works against the 49ers all-time defense, and the 49ers offense
just happens to be struggling with attrition at key positions (i.e.
Greg Kittle; Matt Breida).
This
doesn’t mean you run out to the window to take the Cardinals money
line, but the cover is one of my locks of the week. *
= ARZ COVER
Cincinnati
Bengals 0-9
(+10.5)
@
Oakland Raiders 5-4
(48.5):
Raiders
27-17
Keys:
The
Raiders have a mediocre offense that doesn’t turn the ball over and
the Bengals are awful and run by a rookie coach and a rookie QB.
People might be surprised to know the Bengals are 3-6 ATS, which is a
product of large spreads against mediocre competition. The
Bengals allow 14.25 ppg on the road and the Raiders score 23 ppg at
home; they’ve also scored 24 points in four of nine games. Those
averages would be within the 10.5-point spread even if you used the
one Ryan Finley outlier game last week in which they scored 13
points. The point here is that this spread sits right around the
result of several quick calculations one might use to decipher a
score, meaning you might want to stay away, unless you want to take a
flier
on the Bengals covering. After all, the Raiders are 1-3 ATS in games
where they’re favored by six or more points.
New
England Patriots 8-1
(-3.5)
@ Philadelphia Eagles 5-4
(44.5):
Patriots
24-21
Sunday,
4:25
PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 20% rain; high 40s)
Keys: The
Patriots suffered their worst defeat of the season, 37-20 at
Baltimore Week 9 before their bye week. Yet, the Patriots regained
their crown in Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System,
surpassing the San Francisco 49ers, the team that was behind New
England the first nine weeks of the season. In
other words, you don’t want to play them on a neutral field and
certainly not in New England. Well, this game is in Philadelphia. The
Eagles have no deep threat anymore and have to rely on the recently
discovered ground game (6th
attempts; 11th
yards; 9th
TDs)
and
their elite TEs, which could work against this
Patriots defense, which,
although statistically elite, has faced weak
competition besides Buffalo and Baltimore and is more
elite against the pass than the run (26th
ypa).
Like
most games, this one comes down to TOs, and the Patriots take the
ball away more than anyone in the league,
while
ranking 9th
in TOs. In other words, the Eagles have to hold on to the ball to have a
good chance. Both teams are coming off the bye and the Patriots are
coming off a loss, two Bill Belichick staples for a subsequent win.
This is one of the tougher games to call in Week 11, but it’s hard
to bet against Belichick coming off the bye and a loss.
This hasn't been Tom Brady's best work, but he has the most help on defense he's had since his early years.
Sunday,
8:20
PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather:
Sunny; mid-80s)
Keys: This
is the Hope & Dreams Bowl. Think about this: Two months ago
pundits had these two teams penciled in for the NFC Championship with
several people declaring the Bears Super Bowl LIV favorites and even
Mitch Trubisky a pre-season MVP candidate. Well, let’s just say
it's gotten so bad some sports books have even refunded those Trubisky MVP bets. Too bad the
Bears can’t refund Trubisky and draft Deshaun Watson or Patrick
Mahomes, but hindsight is 20/20. The bottom line is the Bears can’t
score consistently, if at all at times, and they’ve suffered too
many injuries on the defensive side of the ball to be considered
elite going forward. Both
teams get after the QB so it should be fun watching Trubisky run out
of the pocket and throw it seven rows into the stands and then watch
Jared Goff crumble like a cheap tent the second any pressure gets to
him and float a duck that has equal chances of being caught or
intercepted. I don’t care what anyone says, both of these teams
have QB remorse, but only the Rams were stupid enough to pay theirs
$100M.
*Kansas
City Chiefs (-3.5)
@ Los Angeles Chargers 4-6 *(52):
Chiefs
30-24
Monday,
8:15
PM, Estadio Azteca,
Mexico City, Mexico (Weather: Clear; low 70s)
Keys:
The
Chargers win a couple games and they’re “back”. Give me a
break. Have you seen Philip Rivers this season? Good god. The Raiders
brought the Chargers back down to Earth Week 10, although they played
Oakland tough, while the Chiefs suffered the worst beat in recent
memory. Suffice it to say, hopefully the defense learned their lesson
after taking the day off once their savior Patrick Mahomes returned,
and a recently improved defense in his absence became the old porous
defense that relied on Mahomes to rescue them, hence surrendering 35
points to the offensively-challenged Titans, something only the even
lowlier Cleveland Browns have managed. The altitude shouldn’t
bother the AFC West foes, who visit Denver once a year minimum, so if
anything, Mahomes becomes even more of a threat in the thin air. The
dynamic Chiefs take on one of the best defenses in the league on
paper, although the competition has been less than stellar and
Mahomes has proved he can avoid pressure, even with a bum ankle. * = KC COVER & OVER
Week 11 Byes: Green Bay Packers; New York Giants; Seattle Seahawks; Tennessee Titans
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 11 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
ProFootballMedia.com
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