Week 3: #NFL Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 3
results: 9-7 wins (29-19 .604); 6-10 v. spread (19-29 .396)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0-2 (+6.5)
@ Atlanta Falcons 1-1 (47): Falcons 24-20 Falcons 56-14
Thursday, 8:25 PM, Georgia
Dome, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Tampa Bay
Buccaneers have lost two close games to begin the season, 20-14 on the road v.
the Carolina Panthers, arguably the best defense in the NFL, and 19-17 v. the
Rams at home in bad weather by a FG with 38 seconds remaining. The Buccaneers
come in limping, with DE Michael Johnson, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, and
running back Doug Martin all questionable. The Atlanta Falcons put on an
offensive clinic Week 1 v. the New Orleans Saints, gaining 568 total yards, 448
of them Matt Ryan passing yards, on their way to a 37-34 overtime win. The
Falcons then ran into the most underrated buzz saw in the NFL in the Cincinnati
Bengals losing 24-10 while only gaining 309 total yards, a mere 212 of them
coming in the air; Ryan’s three INTs didn’t help. The Bengals defense is one of
the best in the NFL, but the Buccaneers are no joke, especially if Johnson and
McCoy can go. The Falcons should be able to pass the ball relatively easily if
those two are out, but Roddy White and Julio Jones are questionable for the
Falcons, too; the Buccaneers should be able to run the ball whether Martin
plays or not. The Falcons aren’t very good at anything but passing the ball, so
the health of the Buccaneers defensive line could be the biggest key. The
Falcons thrive at home, and the Buccaneers are banged up on short week. Falcons
win, Buccaneers cover.
Many
people thought the Falcons would win, hence the Buccaneers getting 6.5 points,
but this game was over halfway through the second quarter. OK, the game was
over in the first quarter. Matt Ryan threw two TDs and Kemal Ishmael returned
an interception 25 seconds after the second TD pass to make a 21-0 game with 2 ½
minutes left in the first quarter. The second quarter belonged to Devin Hester,
who caught a TD pass and returned a punt to make it a 35-0 game by the half.
Hester’s TD was his 20th special teams TD, breaking Deion Sanders' record. Hester was also flagged for replicating Sanders' dance into the end zone, in a
clear tribute to his idol, showing once again how tone deaf the NFL can be. It
was one of those games for the Buccaneers, let’s just leave it at that.
Oakland Raiders 0-2 (+6.5) @ New England Patriots 1-1 (46.5): New England 31-14 Patriots 16-9
Sunday, 1 PM, Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, MA (Weather: 40% rain;
mid-70s)
Reasons: The winless
Oakland Raiders are statistically one of the worst teams in the NFL and they’ll
be flying from the west coast to play a 1 PM game in Foxborough. It’s not
looking good. The Patriots rebounded from a horrendous second half against the
Dolphins, which cost them the game, and pummeled a Vikings team that was
without their All-Pro running back because of child abuse allegations last
Sunday to right the proverbial ship. It’s hard to imagine the Patriots losing
at home to a jetlagged team that simply just isn’t good. Stranger things have
happened, and I’d usually steer from a double-point spread, but these Raiders
could be historically bad.
The
Patriots’ offense has not looked good so far this season, and it showed against
the lowly Raiders. Although Oakland’s pass defense might be their one strong suit,
on display to some level Sunday, the Raiders are awful and the Patriots barely
beat them. In fact, the Raiders had a chance to win - so much for that 14-point spread. This game was bad – totaling
538 yards for both teams. Enough
said.
Pittsburgh Steelers 1-1 (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers 2-0 (41.5): Panthers 24-17 Steelers 37-19
Sunday, 8:30 PM, BoA Stadium,
Charlotte, NC (Weather: Cloudy; mid-70s)
Reasons: The Steelers,
for the first time since I can recall, are not a very good football team. The
Carolina Panthers are. The Steelers are good actually pretty good in the air,
on both sides of the ball, and is the reason the team is 1-1, but this Panthers
defense is not joke. Even without DE Greg Hardy, placed on the NFL Exempt List
this week, the Panthers possess one of the best front sevens in football, and
they will get after Ben Roethlisberger. As Cam Newton gets more reps this
offense will only improve, and we could see that happen during this game. The
Panthers running backs should have a big day, as could Newton if he lets loose.
The Panthers should roll at home.
This game
was 23-13 with 13:28 left in the fourth quarter. All the vaunted Carolina defense
had to do was force a stop on their home turf and give the Panthers offense a
chance to make it a three-point game. Then things went horribly wrong and the
Steelers ran away with the game – literally. Pittsburgh rushed for 264 yards
and embarrassed the Panthers on several occasions. The locker rooms must have
looked like triage – several players were injured, including Panthers
quarterback Cam Newton, who was replaced by Derek Anderson in the fourth
quarter when it was 37-13 after making several vicious hits. It was the
Steelers defense that shined Sunday night, and without a dominant defense, the
Panthers look lost.
San Diego Chargers 1-1 (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills 2-0 (45.5): Bills 24-20 Chargers
22-10
Sunday, 1 PM, Ralph Wilson
Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 90% rain;
mid-60s)
Reasons: The Buffalo
Bills are statistically one of the seven best teams in the NFL after two weeks.
The San Diego Chargers, coming in hot off their 30-21 beating of the Super Bowl
Champion Seahawks, have a chance to bring the Bills back down to Earth.
Unfortunately for the Chargers, they’ll be the second team this week making a
transcontinental flight for a 1 PM game. Even more unfortunate for the
sun-kissed Chargers is the fact they fly into a rainstorm, which should stifle
their 8th-ranked passing game. The Bills run the ball well and they
stop teams from running the ball, so the Chargers could be in for a long game
if they can’t get anything going in the air in the rain. The Bills continue to
impress, with a little help from Mother Nature.
I guess
the Chargers are for real. A transcontinental flight for a 1 PM game against
one of the better defenses in the NFL had many thinking the Chargers were
doomed, but the Bills team everyone expected didn’t show, at least offensively,
and the Chargers squeaked out the 22-10 win in one of the more boring games of
the weekend. The Bills were flagged 11 times for 110 yards and gave up a fourth
quarter safety to end an ugly game in which they only averaged 4.5 ypp. The
16-0 dream is over in Buffalo.
Dallas Cowboys 1-1 (-1) @ St. Louis Rams 1-1 (44.5): Cowboys 27-21 Cowboys
34-31
Sunday, 1 PM, Edward Jones Dome,
St. Louis, MO (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: I don’t quite
understand the Cowboys getting only one point v. the Rams Sunday, even if the
game is in St. Louis. The one thing the Rams excel at so far in 2014 is pass
defense, but the Cowboys have the 2nd-ranked rushing attack in the
NFL. That could be trouble for the Rams, who are the third-worst rush defense
in the league. The Cowboys defense is surprisingly middle-of-the-road after two
games, so even if the Rams can get something going in the air with 3rd-string
Austin Davis, which is possible with Anthony Spencer out, it might not be
enough to stay with the scoring from DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant. The Cowboys
should roll, which means they’ll probably lose.
The
Cowboys were down 21-0 before rattling off 20 unanswered points to make it a
21-20 game heading into the fourth quarter. The Rams turned the ball over three
times and were penalized eight times for 119 yards to help the Cowboys get back
in the game and eventually win, so the game was almost as much about the Rams
losing the game as the Cowboys winning it. Austin Davis out shined Tony Romo,
who had a respectable game himself, but once again the game may have belonged
to DeMarco Murray, who again ran for 100 yards and a TD on 24 carries.
Washington Natives 1-1 (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 2-0 (50.5): Eagles 27-23 Eagles 37-34
Sunday, 1 PM, Lincoln Financial
Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny,
mid-70s)
Reasons: Their might be
drama surrounding the Natives once again with another RGIII injury taking
center stage, but the drama should be about the team – they’re pretty good. In
terms of yardage and scoring rankings, the Natives worst rankings are 10th
(passing yards) and 12th (scoring offense); otherwise the Natives
are top-four team. The Sharps must not believe in Kirk Cousins too much,
because the Natives are giving the Eagles almost a TD. The Eagles excel where
the Natives do not (2nd-ranked
passing game; 2nd-ranked scoring offense), and the Natives lone
with come v. the Jaguars. But one of the Eagles wins came v. the Jaguars, too,
and the Eagles had to come back down from 17-0 in the second half to do so.
Washington’s defense could be exposed v. these high-flying Eagles, which may be
the reason for the large spread. This won’t be the blowout Vegas predicts, but
Eagles should bring those surprising Washington rankings back to a place that
will reflect their 1-2 record.
The
Natives gained 511 total yards, 427 on the arm of Kirk Cousins, gained nearly 6
yards per play, held the ball for over 35 minutes, and still lost. Roy Helu
made it a 37-34 game with 4:16 to go, but couldn’t pull off the comeback win on
the road against the high-flying Eagles, which were actually leading at the
half for the first time all season. The Eagles improved to 3-0 on the season,
but were held to only 54 rushing yards. Shady McCoy gained only 22 yards on 19
carries, fumbling the ball once. The Eagles might be 3-0, but they could be the
shakiest of the three undefeated teams in the NFL.
Houston Texans 2-0 (-2) @ New York Giants 0-2 (41.5): Texans 24-17 Giants 30-17
Sunday, 1 PM, MetLife Stadium,
East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 30% rain;
high 70s)
Reasons: I can say the
names of two players and you will know the outcome of this game immediately: JJ
Watt and Eli Manning. The Texans are not as good as everyone thinks they are,
and their passing game (ranked 30th
-172.5 ypg) is atrocious, but their running game isn’t (ranked 8th – 151.1 ypg). The
funny thing is, the only thing the Giants are good at is stopping the run,
although they’ll be without LB Jon Beason. That fact may explain the Texans
only giving two points, because the Giants are awful. The Giants have lost to two pretty good teams, and
the Texans haven’t really beaten
anyone, so maybe the Giants get back on track. But then there’s JJ Watt and Eli
Manning…and that -6 turnover ratio.
The
Giants won the trap game many Sharps saw the Texans losing. No one had them
blowing the Texans away. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three INTs to and was sacked
twice by one of the worst defensive units in the NFL, but the game belonged to
Rashard Jennings, who carried the ball a whopping 34 times for 176 yards (5.2 ypg) and a TD, with an 18-yard run
being his longest of the day.
Minnesota Vikings 1-1 (+10.5) @ New Orleans Saints 0-2 (49.5): Saints 30-21 Saints 20-9
Sunday, 1 PM, Mercedes-Benz
Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: Statistically
these two teams are poised for a battle. The Vikings offense sputters,
especially without RB Adrian Peterson, placed on the NFL Exempt List pending
his child abuse case, but so does the Saints defense, projected to only
improved on their 4th-overall ranking in 2013. On the other hand,
the Saints offense is one of the best in the NFL, and the Vikings have one of
the better defenses in the league. The Saints will be home, however, and the
Vikings are reeling after being humiliated at home in the wake of their best
player leaving the team. All of this explains the otherwise excessive spread.
No one
gave the Vikings much a chance on the road v. the Saints, but the game was far
closer than anyone thought. The issue is that the Saints simply aren’t one of
the best teams in the NFL as much as everyone wants to crown them (much like the 2014 NE Patriots). Just as
I pointed out before the game, statistically these two teams battles it out,
and despite the Saints besting the Vikings in every statistical category, it
was a 13-9 game with 12 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Simple reason:
the Saints aren’t as good as fans think; the Vikings aren’t as bad.
Tennessee Titans 1-1 (+7) @ Cincinnati Bengals 2-0 (43): Bengals 24-17 Bengals 33-7
Sunday, 1 PM, Paul Brown Stadium,
Cincinnati, OH (Weather: 50% storms;
mid-70s)
Reasons: The Titans are
the best team in the NFL against the pass, where the Bengals excel (3rd), and the Titans are the
8th-ranked scoring defense. The Bengals are the 3rd-ranked
scoring defense, and also boast the 12th-ranked scoring offense as
well. The Bengals are slowly gaining the respect they rightfully deserve, and
will be a tough game for the visiting Titans. After an impressive Week 1 win,
the Cowboys came into Nashville and turned off the music - in other words, the
Week 1 hype may have been just that. The Bengals are a legit championship team
if AJ Green can stay healthy, and should have no problem Sunday.
Not that
the Titans are any sort of measuring stick, but people are finally starting to
realize the Bengals are a great football team. The Bengals rattled off 33
unanswered points before the Titans finally scored with 6 minutes remaining.
Despite not blowing up the stat sheet in any particular area, the Bengals scored
with their defense, running game, and some trickery. So despite being out gained
by the Titans the Bengals destroyed them. 11 penalties and two Jake Locker INTs
certainly helped the Bengals cause, but good teams find a way to win no matter
what. Great teams make statistically close games look like blowouts.
Baltimore Ravens 1-1 (-1.5) @ Cleveland Browns 1-1 (41.5): Browns 24-21 Ravens 23-21
Sunday, 1 PM, First Energy
Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 80%
storms; low-70s)
Reasons: The Browns can
score points (6th), and
they can run the ball (6th),
but the Ravens don’t allow points (5th)
and they stop the run (8th).
It should be a great divisional battle between the old Browns and the new
Browns, especially with both teams coming off big wins, one emotional (Ravens) and one surprising (Browns). People still have faith in the
Ravens, but I’m not one of those people. I do have faith in the Browns,
however, although they need to be more consistent through four quarters to beat
teams like the Saints on a consistent basis. Perhaps it starts Sunday.
This
divisional battle was back and fourth until the Ravens kicked two unanswered
FGs in the 4th quarter to take back the lead and then seal the win.
The Browns had a TD nullified on a penalty, then had the FG that would’ve put
them up 24-17 with ~8 minutes to go blocked. The Ravens took full advantage of
the Browns late mental errors and kicked the late FGs for the win.
Green Bay Packers 1-1 (+2.5) @ Detroit Lions 1-1 (53): Lions 27-24 Lions
19-7
Sunday, 1 PM, Ford Field,
Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Another great
divisional battle, the Lions are coming off tough loss to the Panthers after
crushing the hapless Giants Week 1. The Packers were bullied by the Seahawks on
Opening Night, but scraped and clawed out a win v. the Jets, although if not
for Marty Mornhinweg the Packers could be 0-2. The Lions are a far better team statistically,
especially on the defensive side of the ball, and they have the 4th-ranked
passing game in the NFL, but the Packers have Aaron Rodgers. Then again, the
Lions have Calvin Johnson. If you’re not a fan of either team you’ll bask in
the glory of two of the best players in the NFL. If you’re a fan of either
team, you’ll be biting your nails. The Lions have too much talent to drop this
game at home, especially if they’re trying to take the next step.
The Lions
beat the Packers in every single statistical category Sunday, even committing more
penalties and turning the ball over more. The Lions turned the ball over three
times, but it was a Packers fumble by RB Eddie Lacy that was the most important
– it was run back for a TD by safety Don Carey. The Packers can't run, they can't play defense, and they can't protect Aaron Rodgers. Just relax, Packers fans.
Indianapolis Colts 0-2 (-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 0-2 (45.5): Colts 28-20 Colts 44-17
Sunday, 1 PM, Even Bank Field,
Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny, mid-80s)
Reasons: The New York
Giants, the Oakland Raiders, and the Jacksonville Jaguars all go into a bad.
I’ll spare you the joke, but the punch line has something to do with being the
laughing stock of the NFL. This week it’s the Jaguars, who rank in the bottom
four of five of the six major yardage and scoring categories in the league. The
sixth category they rank 26th, which is passing defense, just what
the Colts excel at (7th).
In other words, the Jaguars could be near the bottom in everything by Sunday
evening. The Colts are not a 0-2 team, at least they shouldn’t be, and if they
have any chance at becoming one of the few teams to make the playoffs after
starting 0-2, they have to beat the Jaguars on the road.
The good
news for the Jaguars is that they were OK offensively Sunday, and after Chad
Henne was sacked three times – now 13
times in 5 quarters – the team put in 2014 first round draft pick Blake
Bortles. The bad news is the Colts defense is awful and Bortles threw two INTs.
I continue to claim the Jaguars are trying to bomb so they’re move to London
will be far more acceptable to the good people of Jacksonville, because the
move is inevitable. Andrew Luck was on another level Sunday throwing for 370
yards and four TDs on 31-39 passing.
San Francisco 49ers 1-1 (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals 2-0 (42): 49ers 24-20 Cardinals
23-14
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Univ. of Phoenix
Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Sunny,
high 90s)
Reasons: Yet another
great divisional game, this NFC West match-up could be the best of any of them
Sunday. The 49ers blew a late lead against the Bears last week, partially due
to QB Colin Kaepernick’s breakdown in the 4th quarter; otherwise
this game would be for sole possession of first place. It’ll be tough sledding
in this game, as both teams rank 7th (SF) and 3rd (ARZ)
against the run. Both teams should be able to move the ball in the air,
although Carson Palmer is questionable. The Cardinals are undefeated, but they
came back late and just barely beat the Chargers, and then they beat the lowly
Giants. The 49ers should be 2-0, too, if not for a late meltdown against a good
Bears team. That probably explains the line.
The 49ers
are in trouble. Whether it’s the injuries, the Ray McDonald distraction, the
head coach being brought up for every major NCAA football job available, or
Colin Kaepernick mentally destructing before our eyes, the 49ers are a shell of
their 2013 selves. The 49ers led 14-6 at the half, but were outscored 17-0 in
the second half to fall to 1-2 on the season, with the Cardinals improving to
3-0. No one shined in this largely defensive battle, but the Cardinals showed
they’re a team on the rise, despite the absence of Carson Palmer, while the
49ers have some serious soul searching to do if they want to hang in this
division.
Denver Broncos 2-0 (+5) @
Seattle Seahawks 1-1 (48.5): Seahawks 28-27 Seahawks 26-20
OT
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Century Link Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Sunny, low 80s)
Reasons: Again? I can’t
even think about reviewing this game to the length I did in my Super Bowl
XLVIII preview, but I could. Both of these teams may have improved on last year
if you can believe it. The Super Bowl loser bolstered the defense by signing DeMarcus
Ware, Aqib Talib, and TJ Ward. They also signed WR Emmanuel Sanders having
gotten early word Wes Welker would be suspended for PED use at some point. No
matter, Welker is back after a renewed CBA drug policy, and just in time. The
Super Bowl Champion Seahawks are angry, coming off their first loss since
losing to the Cardinals at home Week 16, and this time the Seahawks have a
healthy Percy Harvin, Oh wait, they did last year v. the Broncos, too. The
Seahawks are elite, but the film on them is out, and if you have a big
offensive line, a great quarterback, and can contain The Beast, you have a
chance. The Broncos have all of these things, and Marshawn Lynch’s health isn’t
exactly 100%. The 12th Man will make Peyton Manning’s life miserable
tomorrow, but I cannot imagine
Manning getting beat by the same team twice on such a big stage in less than
eight months. Then again, I lived through all of those epic Colts v. Patriots
match-ups over the years, so I’ve seen it with my own eyes.
Aside
from the ridiculous offensive outpouring, this game looked a lot like Super
Bowl XLVIII in the sense that it was totally dominated by the Seahawks defense
until there was about 13 minutes left in the 4th quarter. The
Seahawks were leading 17-3 when Marshawn Lynch was somehow tackled in the end zone
for a safety at 13:09 in the 4th quarter. Less than four minutes
later Peyton Manning threw a 3-yard pass to TE Julius Thomas to make it a 17-12
game with 9:20 left. After exchanging a few series the Seahawks kicked a 28-yard
FG with 59 seconds left to take a 20-12 lead and seal the win…not so fast. In
typical Manning fashion, Peyton drove the Broncos 80 yards down the field in
less than 40 seconds to make it a 20-18 game before connecting with Demaryius Thomas
on the 2-point conversion to tie the game 20-20 with 18 seconds left. The
Seahawks downed the ball, collected their thoughts, deferred the ball, stopped
the Broncos, and handled their overtime business like the champion bosses they
are. Still, the game proved the Broncos are tougher than they were in 2013…or
that the Super Bowl might have been different if the Broncos were healthy.
Enough defending Peyton Manning…
Kansas City Chiefs 0-2
(+4)
@ Miami Dolphins 1-1 (42): Dolphins 21-20 Chiefs 34-15
Sunday, 4:25 PM, SunLife Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 50% storms; mid-80s)
Reasons: The winless
Chiefs come into Miami having seriously underachieved thus far, although they
played the Broncos tough last week, and almost tied the game late if it weren’t
for the giant mitts of one Terrance Knighton. With Pro-Bowl RB Jamal Charles
still questionable, this offense will continue to have a hard time getting to
it’s 2013 level of 26+ ppg, and the defense is nowhere near where it was in
2013. The arrow is on its way back down and it doesn’t get any easier v. the
Dolphins. The Dolphins aren’t a juggernaut by any stretch, but that front four
should give Alex Smith fits. Expect some stormy weather and some low-scoring
action in Miami tomorrow.
A
relatively close game heading into the 4th quarter (21-15), the Chiefs scored 13 unanswered
fourth quarter points to make a once close game a blowout. The Dolphins have
looked foolish since their second half decimation of the New England Patriots,
culminating in a bad loss to a KC team many had questioned themselves.
Chicago Bears 1-1 (+3) @
New York Jets 1-1 (45.5): Bears 24-21 Bears 27-19
Monday, 8:30 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Clear; mid-50s)
Reasons: I’m not sure if
the Sharps see something I don’t, or if they think the Jets front seven unit is
deadly enough to keep Jay Cutler on the run, something the Bears are apparently
horrible at (30th). The
Bears aren’t terrible in the air (9th),
but Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jefferies are both questionable. The Jets are
also banged up, with Chris Johnson and Eric Decker both questionable. The Bears
won’t try to run on the Jets stout run defense (1st), but the Jets will certainly run on the Bears,
especially if their top-ranked rushing attack includes Chris Johnson. These
teams are pretty evenly matched, except for polar opposite offensive
approaches, and apparently Vegas sees it the same way considering they’re
giving the Jets three points at home. The Jets defense is good, but if the
Bears get off to an early big lead, it could be over quick.
32
seconds into this game the J-E-T-S were down 7-0 on a Ryan Mundy pick-6. The
Bears never looked back. Despite only gaining 257 total yards to the Jets 414,
it seemed the Jets were never in this game. Perhaps it was the three TOs. Geno
Smith threw two INTs and Jalen Saunders lost a fumble to make the game a lot
easier for the Bears, who had to deal with the Jets tough defensive line all
night (4 sacks). The Jets are
certainly playing better than their record would indicate, but with the
mistakes at quarterback and with the coaching staff, this great Jets defense
will go to waste again in 2014.
Check back Thursday & Sunday
for Week
4 #NFL Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!
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