And this isn’t your father’s NFL,
either. Or even your older brother’s for that matter.
A Little History
The NFL is changing. Once a
relatively straightforward game, the National Football League has developed
into quite a complex game. Not to say the bruising I-, Wishbone and Power
formations didn’t have their complexities, the evolution towards one back sets
or empty backfields, so that teams can maximize receivers and/or quarterback
mobility, has really opened things up. The record books attest to this.
Some teams have even adopted
historically college-style offenses, such as the Wildcat and Pistol formations,
or other option-type offenses, once thought blasphemous in the professional
league. A 4th and 1 situation five or more years ago would have
called for a fullback dive or maybe a
quarterback sneak. Today we wouldn’t be shocked to see a five-receiver set. If
you find the game hasn’t changed much, check out these numbers:
2013 wasn’t necessarily a
historically low year in terms of team rushing, but the 112.9 yards per game
average did rank 14th lowest since the NFL began keeping records in
1938. Conversely, 2013 broke the
record for team passing yards per game (235.6) for the fourth straight year. Yeah. The “Year of the
Quarterback” buzz phrase a few years back is turning into the “Decade of the
Quarterback”.
Ten of top-25 rushing totals in
the history of the league have come since 2000; 14 of the top-25 passing totals
have come in the past five seasons.
It’s even more ridiculous when you realize seven have come in the past two seasons.
Seven rushers have eclipsed the
magical 2,000 yard barrier in the history of the NFL, and three of those have
come since 2000 - Jamal Lewis (2003), Chris Johnson (2009) and Adrian Peterson
(2012). Peterson came within eight yards of breaking Eric Dickerson’s all-time
record rushing with 2,097 rushing yards two years ago.
How about the magical 5,000-yard
passing barrier, eclipsed only once in history (1984), by the great Dan Marino, until 2008? It’s been eclipsed seven times since 2008…seven.
Six since 2011. So the bar set by
Marino, thought unattainable for anyone other than the great gun-slinging Hall
of Fame Dolphins quarterback, has been eclipsed six times in the past three years, after standing for 25 years…and
never having happened before that.
Marino accomplished this feat at
a very young age (23 years), and in
only his second year in the NFL. Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford
eclipsed 5,000 yards at the same age, but in his third season (Note: Stafford also came within 33 yards of
doing it again the next season). Perhaps a young man’s feat? Hardly. Five
of those seven quarterbacks managed to throw 5,000+ yards after the age of 32. Peyton Manning, the current record holder at
5,477 yards, was 37 when he accomplished the feat last season. Some say the
38-year old could break his own record in 2014.
What’s the point to all this
rambling about quarterbacks and passing yardage? That the league has morphed
into a pass-happy sling fest. A quarterback who threw for 3,000 yards in a
season was an All-Pro when I was a kid 25 years ago; now the lowest rated
quarterbacks in the league manage that.
The game of football is a game of
adjustments, however, and defenses are quick to catch up. Remember Michael Vick
when he first came into the league? He was basically unstoppable. Vick was
going to revolutionize the game. Enter Julius Peppers and Vick is relatively
contained. Side note: Vick was twice the athlete Johnny Football was coming out
of college - no disrespect to Manziel - but there’s that. How about Manning and
those record-breaking Denver Broncos from 2013? They broke almost every
important offensive record in the league last year. They played the Seattle
Seahawks in the Super Bowl and lost 43-8.
The point is that defenses adjust
as quickly as offenses evolve, and in my opinion today’s defenses, filled with
lightning quick defensive backs the size of linebackers and defensive ends as
fast as safeties, are nearly as dangerous as these explosive offenses. Defenses
will be the difference in 2014, but I’m not talking about NFL defenses as a
whole – I’m about to argue for eight teams with very good to elite defenses that
could be playing for a Super Bowl title in 2014. It’s really more like four.
2014 NFL Preview
The Seattle Seahawks won the
Super Bowl last year for three major reasons (defense, rushing, ball security) and one minor one (timely special teams). The Seahawks were
the top-ranked defense, were 4th in rushing, and were +20 in
turnovers. The Seahawks offense was also 4th lowest in the NFL in
percentage of drives ending in a turnover (9.3%). The timely special teams came
from situations like Percy Harvin returning to the special teams just in time
for the Super Bowl, after being injured all season, and scoring a touchdown.
If you have a great defense, you can
run the ball, and you don’t turn the ball over, you have the recipe for winning
the Super Bowl. The record-breaking Denver Broncos certainly didn’t, despite
all of their weapons and securing the bionic man. A few other teams share these
attributes, and one or two have quarterbacks experts would argue are far better
equipped or experienced than Russell Wilson, namely the New England Patriots
and the Carolina Panthers.
Two playoff teams from 2013, the
New England Patriots lost the AFC Championship to the Broncos and the Carolina
Panthers tied a franchise record with 12 wins before losing in the Divisional
Round to the San Francisco 49ers.
The Patriots managed to get back
to the AFC title game with barely a receiving threat, save Wes Welker’s
replacement Julian Edelman, who comically ended the season with nearly
identical stats for a fraction of the money the departed Welker signed for.
Those same “weapons” remain, as does a shaky line that just traded away
Pro-Bowl guard Logan Mankins, but Tom Brady still runs the show. With another
year experience between Brady and his receivers and a great running attack to
compliment the most dangerous tight end in the NFL - if Rob Gronkowski can stay healthy - the Patriots offense should be
just fine. After all, the same offense was 2nd in points scored and
7th in yards gained last year. What questions? Well, Gronk is
already questionable for Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins. Still, the Patriots
get Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo back, and team them with All-World cornerback
Darrell Revis and emerging pass rusher Chandler Jones, making the already
top-10 defense (points allowed) one
of the best in the game. New England will be tough.
The young Carolina Panthers were
on their way to becoming NFC title contenders this season before their Pro-Bowl
left tackle retired, the team lost their secondary, and three of their four
leading receivers from 2013, including the team’s all-time leading receiver
Steve Smith. To compound matters, quarterback Cam Newton had off-season surgery
to repair an ankle injury, and only managed 1+ quarters of action in the
preseason before breaking a rib against the New England Patriots during the
third preseason game. No matter, this is a defense for the ages. The best front
seven in the NFL, anchored by defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy,
who helped the Panthers lead the NFL with 60 sacks last season, and linebackers
Thomas Davis and 2013 Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly, will help a
vicious running attack and one of the league’s best young quarterbacks continue
towards that title.
The team that stopped the
Panthers last year, the San Francisco 49ers, isn’t planning on going anywhere
in 2014. In fact, they just built a brand new house and they would to show it
off again for this year’s NFC title game (not
to mention the 2016 Super Bowl). Home field advantage - that’s the name of
the game these days. The 49ers made a good move this off-season by drafting the
best running back coming out of college last year in Ohio State’s Carlos Hyde,
and he’ll make for a nice compliment to Frank Gore, especially as the season –
and Gore - wears on. The defense took major hits – one literally to linebacker
Navorro Bowman’s knee, suffering the horrible injury in the NFC Championship, one
by way of defensive end Aldon Smith’s suspension, and a few by way of free
agency. Sadly, defensive end Ray McDonald was also arrested on domestic assault
charges within days of the league’s new policy regarding the issue. Regardless,
this defense is nasty enough to tread water until Bowman’s return and
quarterback Colin Kaepernick should only get better with time…we think. The
49ers look to return to the NFC Championship.
The Arizona Cardinals had one of
the best defenses in the NFL in 2013, ranking 6th in points allowed
and 7th in yards allowed. That stellar defense was complimented by a
quarterback who threw for nearly 4,300 yards (Carson Palmer) and one of the
league’s best veteran wide receivers (Larry Fitzgerald); unfortunately, that
defense lost defensive tackle Darnell Dockett for the season, severely
hampering their title chances.
The New Orleans Saints defense
ranked a surprising 4th overall in 2013, in both points and yards
allowed, after years of defensive futility. These Saints are also run by
All-Pro Drew Brees, have had their head coach Sean Payton back for the entire
off-season, and just drafted one of the best receivers in college football this
past May in Brandin Cooks. They’ll need Cooks after losing Darren Sproles. I
doubt the Saints repeat their top-four defensive performance, but safety Jairus
Byrd is an upgrade from the departed Roman Harper, so it remains to be seen.
The Saints will battle division rival Carolina all year.
In the AFC, the Kansas City
Chiefs turned things around last year, going 11-5 after landing head coach and
Kool-Aid Man look-alike Andy Reid. The Chiefs offense was 6th in the
NFL scoring 26.9 ppg, yet they only ranked 21st in yards per game.
Talk about efficiency. That efficiency will be a lot harder to come by with the
departure of running back Dexter MacCluster to the Tennessee Titans, and the
suspension of wide receiver Dwanye Bowe through the first four games. The same
can be said about the defense, but in reverse. The “bend-but-don’t break”
defense was 5th in the league last year only giving up 19.1 ppg, yet
ranked 24th in the league in yards against. If Kansas City plans on
beating either the Broncos or Patriots to get to the Super Bowl, they’re going
to have to tighten all of that up.
The Cincinnati Bengals were identical
to the Chiefs in that they both ranked 5th in the league in both
points scored per game (26.9) and points allowed (19.1), but they couldn’t be
more different in terms of yardage. The Bengals remain at the top of the league
in both yards allowed (3rd, 305.5 yards) and yards gained (10th, 368.2 yards). With
quarterback Andy Dalton – statistical analysis destroys anyone’s “Dalton sucks” argument – and wide
receiver AJ Green leading a potent offense, a great running game, and the
backing of one of the best defensive units, there is no reason the Bengals shouldn’t
challenge Denver or New England - but they probably won’t.
The AFC
Playoffs teams:
West: Denver (1st seed; Bye); East: New England (Bye); North: Cincinnati; South: Indianapolis
Wild Cards: Kansas City, Baltimore.
It’s hard to imagine the AFC West
sending three teams to the playoffs again, but it could happen. I see the
Ravens rebounding instead, especially disgraced running back Ray Rice. Other
than that it’s 2013 déjà vu all over again.
AFC Championship
New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos.
Notice Denver has home field
advantage, except Bill Belichick won’t lose to the Broncos twice in a row in
the AFC Championship.
The NFC
Playoff teams:
West: Seattle (1st seed, Bye); South:
Carolina (Bye); East:
Philadelphia; North: Detroit
Wild Cards: San Francisco,
New Orleans.
It’s almost as easy to replace
the Detroit Lions with the Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, or Arizona
Cardinals, but four things come to mind: Green Bay’s defense is the reason they
were 8-7-1 and almost missed the playoffs in 2013, the Cardinals won’t recover
from losing defensive leader Dockett, the Cowboys are the Cowboys, and the Lions
simply have too much talent, and finally the right coach to steer them in the
right direction. Maybe.
NFC Championship
Seattle Seahawks v. Carolina Panthers
Unfortunately for the Panthers,
they’ll be too young and the Seahawks stadium too tough to win on the road in under
the pressure of getting to their second Super Bowl. In a rare feat, the
Seahawks get back to the Super Bowl and try for two in a row.
Super Bowl XLIX
New England Patriots v. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks might be the
designated “home” team in Super Bowl XLIX, being an odd-numbered Super Bowl,
but unfortunately for them the game will be played at the University of Phoenix
Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. That could be unfortunate for the Patriots, too,
as it’s the site of the then-undefeated Patriot’s improbable Super Bowl XLII
loss to the New York Giants in 2008. Everyone remembers the David Tyree catch.
How could one not, it’s widely considered the greatest Super Bowl play in the
game’s storied history. New England fans call it the luckiest, and also the
worst. Agreed. Guess where I’m from?
Super Bowl XVIX Champion
New England Patriots
This is no homer pick. The title
finally returns to New England, the site of the league’s best coach, best
quarterback, and one of the league’s best defenses and rushing attacks. The
Patriots were ridiculed in 2013 for losing their dynasty edge, having a
questionable offense, a sub-par performance from Brady, and an under-performing
defense that had lost too many of its starters. Well, that same Patriots team finished
3rd in points scored, 7th in yards gained, and 10th
in points allowed on their way to 12 wins and another AFC Championship appearance.
As for Brady? He threw 4,343 yards and 25 touchdowns. I’ll take that “down”
season any year. Just like the Patriots, Brady is just fine. If the “Gronk”
manages to stay healthy, and Revis Island again becomes deserted, the Patriots
could have another season for the ages.
MVP
Aaron Rodgers (QB), Green Bay Packers
Rodgers missed seven games in
2013 because of injury, but still managed to throw for over 2,500 yards and 17
touchdowns for a QB Rating of 104.9. The year before Rodgers threw for 4,295
yards and 38 touchdowns to only eight interceptions for a QB Rating of 108. In
2011 Rodgers threw for 4,643 yards and a mind-boggling 45 touchdowns to only six interceptions with a QB Rating of 122.5 -
that year he also won the NFL MVP. Some might see 2011-2013 as two years of
regression capped by an injury, which would be ridiculous. I see the league’s
best quarterback reloaded with health and weapons. With Eddie Lacy taking some
of the pressure off of Rodgers. The quarterback will have a field day with Jordy
Nelson and Randall Cobb. Rodgers could return back to his 2011 form in 2014,
which would make him the most valuable player in the NFL again.
AP Offensive Player of the Year
Matthew Stafford (QB), Detroit Lions
Stafford has put up huge numbers
for years with the NFL’s best wide receiver, Calvin Johnson, but not much else.
With Golden Tate coming on and taking some of the pressure off Johnson, running
backs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell keeping defenders honest, and stars on
defense, Stafford could be breaking records in 2014.
Honorable mention: Andy Dalton
(QB), Cincinnati Bengals
The same thing can be said for
Dalton. Big Red might have too many weapons and skills on a great defensive
team to be overlooked for the fourth season in a row, but unfortunately for
Dalton there are some great quarterbacks putting up big numbers these days.
AP Defensive Player of the Year
Thomas Davis (ILB), Carolina Panthers
Thomas Davis might be the best
linebacker on the Carolina Panthers and he plays alongside Luke Kuechly, the
2013 Defensive Player of the Year. That should be enough said right there, but
the Panther’s defensive line begs mentioning. Perhaps the best in the NFL,
Davis’ job seems like a dream. He’s about to have a dream season.
Honorable mention: Darrell Revis (CB), New England Patriots.
Darrell Revis returns to
defensive stability under one of the greatest defensive minds in football in
Bill Belichick. Belichick will utilize Revis’ skill set as no one yet has, and
a (healthy) dominant front seven will
only make Revis’ job easier. Once Brandon Browner returns from suspension it
could be lights out.
The 2014 NFL season begins
tomorrow September 4th when the Green Bay Packers travel to
Seattle to take on the Seahawks in “Fail Mary II: This Time They’re Official”.
Enjoy the season fans!
ProFootballMedia
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