Thursday, 8:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Clear, cold, low 30s)
Reasons: This game is destined to be a shoot-out as both teams rank in the top 4 for passing offense (DEN - 1st; SD - 4th) while ranking near the bottom in pass defense (DEN - 28th; SD - 27th). The only potential wrench in this expected high-scoring game would be the cold (freezing at game time) and the fact that Hurricane Bernard Pollard rolled through town last week and decimated one WR (Welker) and hobbled another (Decker), while yet two more stars nurse nagging injuries (the non-Brothers' Thomas); some of those nagging injuries were around last week, too, and didn't seem to make much of a difference. The Broncos improving run game could give the Chargers problems in the short yardage game, but the Chargers might have trouble running at all on the Broncos stout run defense (ranked 7th). All this points to a high-altitude air assault easily won by the rolling Broncos. The Chargers playoff hopes take a huge hit tonight. Bold prediction of the week? Nick Novak, career long of 53, kicks an NFL record 65-yard FG in the thin air tonight. Sorry Prater, but mark it dude.
Washington Natives (+6.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (50.5): Falcons 27-20
1:00 PM, Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: These two teams are terrible, both coming in at 3-10, but what's worse is many people had these two teams battling to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl come January - not happening. The Falcons still have a respectable air attack (ranked 6th), but fail in most other things, ranking towards the bottom of the league in both rush offense and defense. The Natives don't fare much better, especially considering they rank near the bottom in pass defense (27th), the one highlight Atlanta brings to this game. The RGIII benching (for health...ahem) and subsequent Shanahan bibble-babble will weigh on this team and ruffle the locker room to some degree, not that the Natives needed any help losing this season. Kirk Cousins just complicates things. Someone has to win this one.
Chicago Bears (-1) @ Cleveland Browns (44.5): Bears 24-21
1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 60% Snow, cold, 20s)
Reasons: The last time the forecast was for 60% snow it dumped 6" and handicapped the first half of the Eagles-Lions game, so I expect snow. The Browns have one of the best yardage defenses in the NFL, but they've given up 31.7 ppg over their last four games. The Bears aren't blowing people away, but they can score, with McCown, or Cutler, who's been inserted back into the starting lineup. If you take away Josh Gordon from this team the Browns compete for the NFL's worst offense, yet the usually stout Bears are currently one of the worst defenses in the league, at least v. the run (ranked last). The Bears will be right at home in the snow and stay alive.
Houston Texans (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (45.5): Texans 24-21
1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Texans, fast becoming the overall worst team in the NFL, fired long-tenured head coach Gary Kubiak - a few weeks after his stroke - after last week's loss, Houston's 11th straight. Despite the state of the Texans, the Colts just backed into the AFC South crown and could be rife for the let down, especially considering how poorly they've played of late. The one strength of the Texans (pass defense, ranked 2nd in the league) should give the depleted Colts WR core problems, even with the recent emergence of LaVon Brazill and Da'Rick Rogers (half joke). And let's not forget: the Texans have lost an NFL-record seven games this year by 7 points or less. I can see the Texans stealing one on the road for interim coach Wade Philips. I'm taking the upset. By the way, Da'Rick may have replaced Jaquizz as the most ridiculous and best name in the NFL.
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (51): Eagles 30-24
1:00 PM, Mall of America Field, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: If only this game had two stud QBs we'd be in for a classic shootout as these are two of the worst teams in the NFL v. the pass (PHI - 30th; MIN - 31st); at least Nick Foles should thrive. On the other hand these are two of the best rushing teams in the NFL (PHI - 1st; MIN - 7th), but both AP and Toby Gerhart are hobbled, which could spell trouble for the Vikings, who are trying to get above .500 at home despite being 3-9-1. That won't be easy as the Eagles offense is rolling and their defense improves by the week. They should keep rolling.
Seattle Seahawks (-7) @ New York Giants (41.5): Seahawks 31-21
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 30% rain, 40s, post-storm)
Reasons: Looks like Seattle weather. Too bad for the Giants, as home field advantage might have been their only prayer. The Seahawks might be coming all the way across the country, but they're coming in hot - as in mad - coming off a close loss to division rival San Francisco. I give the Giants literally no chance as Eli Manning has put on a horrific statistical season for the ages, throwing 20 INTs already, with three games left and these nasty Seahawks coming to town. I suppose the Giants improving defense could rattle Wilson, but I doubt it, especially with no JPP. This could get ugly, as if isn't ugly enough in East Rutherford already. So much for a NYG-NYJ hometown Super Bowl.
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (41): 49ers 27-20
1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 50% rain, 70s)
Reasons: This is San Francisco weather, too, as both west coast teams making cross-continental flights are playing in weather they're accustomed to at home. Besides that the 49ers are coming off a close battle with Seattle, won at home on a last-second FG, while the once-laughable Bucs have won four of five. This game should be won on the ground in some way, as both teams are two of the worst in the air (SF - last; TB - 31st), but they're also two of the best defending the run (SF - 9th; TB - 8th). Either way the 49ers 6th-ranked run game should get the job done, while Glennon should struggle v. the 49ers pass defense (ranked 4th).
New England (-1) @ Miami Dolphins (45.5): Patriots 27-24
1:00 PM, Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 40% rain, low 80s)
Reasons: The Patriots have gone to Miami favored v. weaker teams in the past and lost, and this one isn't anything like some of those past games. The Patriots have backed into their last three wins in the most dramatic fashion, and lost Gronkowski for the season along the way. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are one of the better defenses in the NFL (ranked 13th v. the pass & 9th scoring) and are capable of scoring in bunches, although that seems to happen more on the road. You might think the Patriots would be destined for a let down considering these two team's pasts and the way in which the Patriots have played the last month, but with the Broncos loss Thursday night the Patriots are back to controlling their own playoff destiny - that's a big deal in New England and isn't taken lightly. It'll be a close game, but the Patriots continue to control their destiny.
Buffalo Bills (-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (43.5): Bills 20-17
1:00 PM, Ever Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 60% rain, 60s)
Reasons: A battle of two 4-9 teams, wow. The Jaguars still remain the worst team in the NFL in my eyes, and most statistical categories agree as they rank near the bottom in everything, but they're actually one of the hottest teams in the league winning four of their last five. The Bills, on the other hand, have lost five of their last six. The Bills respectable rush attack (ranked 5th) should control the game, while their also respectable pass defense (ranked 6th) should shut down any semblance of a JAX passing game. I'd say the Bills should roll, but you never know with these two teams.
Kansas City Chiefs (-5) @ Oakland Raiders (41.5): Chiefs 27-21
4:05 PM, Oakland County Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny, 60s)
Reasons: It's Matt McGloin v. the #4 scoring defense in the NFL. I don't give the Raiders much of a shot here as the Chiefs have been handed a gift from SD, able to tie Denver for the division lead with a victory. McCluster is out, which seriously hurts the special teams game, and the run game to some degree, especially considering the Raiders 12th-ranked rush defense, but the Chiefs passing game should thrive either way. The Chiefs win big on the road and tie up the division.
New York Jets (+11) @ Carolina Panthers (40.5): Panthers 27-13
4:05 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny, 40s)
Reasons: The Panthers are pissed. Embarrassed last week by the Saints on the road, they'll be looking to rebound at home v. the offensively-challenged Jets. Seeing as the Panthers have the 5th ranked pass defense, the #1 run defense, and are the league's top scoring defense, the Jets literally stand no chance. The Jets 2nd-ranked run defense could slow the Panthers a bit, so the game could hinge on Cam Newton's shoulders, which shouldn't be a problem v. the Jets porous pass defense (ranked 24th). Carolina all day, sending the Jets air bound for the season.
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans (42): Cardinals 24-21
4:25 PM, LP Field, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny, cold, 30s)
Reasons: A tale of two teams trending in opposite directions, the Cardinals have won five of six, while the fading Titans have lost their last four of five. The Cardinals are quietly one of the best defenses int he NFL (ranked 12th v. the pass; 3rd v. the run; 7th scoring) and should bottle up this mediocre offense, although they did lose potential ROY defensive back Tyrann Mathieu to a season-ending knee injury. The Titans respectable pass defense could give Carson Palmer a little trouble, but Arizona should take care of this game as they try to remain relevant in the playoff picture.
New Orleans Saints (-6) @ Saint Louis Rams (47.5): Saints 28-21
4:25 PM, Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, MO (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: All three of the Saints losses have come on the road, but that's been outside, where the poor Saints can't hang. This game is in a dome, so the Saints will be right at home flinging the 72 degree football all over the place v. this mediocre defense, although they are the 13th in scoring. The Saints defense on the the other hand is pretty stout (5th scoring defense & ranked 3rd v. the pass), and should give the Rams fits. Coach Fisher begins to look ahead to next year as the Saints cruise in another balmy climate. I can't wait until they play Seattle again in Seattle.
Green Bay Packers (+6.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (48.5): Cowboys 31-24
4:25 PM, Cowboys Stadium, Dallas, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: This is a match up of two of the worst defenses in the NFL, Dallas literally being worst at stopping the run, something the Packers do well (10th ranked rush offense). This one has the potential for a shoot-out, but that takes two to tango, and I'm not sure Matt Flynn is up for dancing. The Packers season is all but done, while the Cowboys are still fighting for their playoff lives, as well as their dignity, because how long can you be touted as "America's Team" mired in mediocrity the way Dallas is? Romo is having another great season under center, but producing little hope for the ultimate goal, something remiss in Dallas for a long time. This game will be a microcosm of that: Romo will have a big day and beat an inferior opponent, which will amount to nothing.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (41): Bengals 27-24
8:30 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Cloudy, cold, teens)
Reasons: The Steelers are coming off a bad loss at home in the snow v. the sun baked Dolphins, and it doesn't get any easier facing the 9-4 division-leading Bengals. Cincinnati seems to be clicking at the right time, winning three straight games sporting one of the best defense in the NFL (ranked 7th v. the pass; 5th v. the run; 6th scoring). That could be trouble for the Steelers as they have one of the worst running games in the league, leaving the game to Roethlisberger and the Steelers 7th-ranked passing game, as they try to take advantage of Terrence Newman's absence and pick on Dre Kirkpatrick in his first start at CB. You might give that edge to the Steelers stout WR crew, but Sanders isn't 100% and Kirkpatrick is no slouch. The Bengals are trying to take over the division and there's no time like the present.
Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) @ Detroit Lions (48.5): Ravens 24-23
Monday, 8:30 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The defending Super Bowl champs are surging, winners of four of their last five, their only loss coming in OT to the surprisingly decent Bears. The Lions, conversely, have lost three of their last four and seemed determined to miss the playoffs, as only a low-character team led by cocky coaches squandering such immense talent could do. The Ravens offense struggles, especially at RB (ranked 29th in rushing), and their high-ranked defense (8th scoring defense; 7th v. the run) is banged up, but the Lions are the Lions, and considering this is crunch time, I expect them to fail. The Lions throw the ball well (ranked 3rd) and defend the pass well (ranked 6th), but they make a ton of mistakes and just can't seem to find the winning formula when it matters most. Oh yeah, and their secondary is banged up. They squander yet another playoff opportunity Monday night in front of the home crowd, while the Ravens stay alive.
Good luck and thanks for reading!
Phaulkner
Washington Natives (+6.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (50.5): Falcons 27-20
1:00 PM, Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: These two teams are terrible, both coming in at 3-10, but what's worse is many people had these two teams battling to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl come January - not happening. The Falcons still have a respectable air attack (ranked 6th), but fail in most other things, ranking towards the bottom of the league in both rush offense and defense. The Natives don't fare much better, especially considering they rank near the bottom in pass defense (27th), the one highlight Atlanta brings to this game. The RGIII benching (for health...ahem) and subsequent Shanahan bibble-babble will weigh on this team and ruffle the locker room to some degree, not that the Natives needed any help losing this season. Kirk Cousins just complicates things. Someone has to win this one.
Chicago Bears (-1) @ Cleveland Browns (44.5): Bears 24-21
1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 60% Snow, cold, 20s)
Reasons: The last time the forecast was for 60% snow it dumped 6" and handicapped the first half of the Eagles-Lions game, so I expect snow. The Browns have one of the best yardage defenses in the NFL, but they've given up 31.7 ppg over their last four games. The Bears aren't blowing people away, but they can score, with McCown, or Cutler, who's been inserted back into the starting lineup. If you take away Josh Gordon from this team the Browns compete for the NFL's worst offense, yet the usually stout Bears are currently one of the worst defenses in the league, at least v. the run (ranked last). The Bears will be right at home in the snow and stay alive.
Houston Texans (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (45.5): Texans 24-21
1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Texans, fast becoming the overall worst team in the NFL, fired long-tenured head coach Gary Kubiak - a few weeks after his stroke - after last week's loss, Houston's 11th straight. Despite the state of the Texans, the Colts just backed into the AFC South crown and could be rife for the let down, especially considering how poorly they've played of late. The one strength of the Texans (pass defense, ranked 2nd in the league) should give the depleted Colts WR core problems, even with the recent emergence of LaVon Brazill and Da'Rick Rogers (half joke). And let's not forget: the Texans have lost an NFL-record seven games this year by 7 points or less. I can see the Texans stealing one on the road for interim coach Wade Philips. I'm taking the upset. By the way, Da'Rick may have replaced Jaquizz as the most ridiculous and best name in the NFL.
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (51): Eagles 30-24
1:00 PM, Mall of America Field, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: If only this game had two stud QBs we'd be in for a classic shootout as these are two of the worst teams in the NFL v. the pass (PHI - 30th; MIN - 31st); at least Nick Foles should thrive. On the other hand these are two of the best rushing teams in the NFL (PHI - 1st; MIN - 7th), but both AP and Toby Gerhart are hobbled, which could spell trouble for the Vikings, who are trying to get above .500 at home despite being 3-9-1. That won't be easy as the Eagles offense is rolling and their defense improves by the week. They should keep rolling.
Seattle Seahawks (-7) @ New York Giants (41.5): Seahawks 31-21
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 30% rain, 40s, post-storm)
Reasons: Looks like Seattle weather. Too bad for the Giants, as home field advantage might have been their only prayer. The Seahawks might be coming all the way across the country, but they're coming in hot - as in mad - coming off a close loss to division rival San Francisco. I give the Giants literally no chance as Eli Manning has put on a horrific statistical season for the ages, throwing 20 INTs already, with three games left and these nasty Seahawks coming to town. I suppose the Giants improving defense could rattle Wilson, but I doubt it, especially with no JPP. This could get ugly, as if isn't ugly enough in East Rutherford already. So much for a NYG-NYJ hometown Super Bowl.
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (41): 49ers 27-20
1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 50% rain, 70s)
Reasons: This is San Francisco weather, too, as both west coast teams making cross-continental flights are playing in weather they're accustomed to at home. Besides that the 49ers are coming off a close battle with Seattle, won at home on a last-second FG, while the once-laughable Bucs have won four of five. This game should be won on the ground in some way, as both teams are two of the worst in the air (SF - last; TB - 31st), but they're also two of the best defending the run (SF - 9th; TB - 8th). Either way the 49ers 6th-ranked run game should get the job done, while Glennon should struggle v. the 49ers pass defense (ranked 4th).
New England (-1) @ Miami Dolphins (45.5): Patriots 27-24
1:00 PM, Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 40% rain, low 80s)
Reasons: The Patriots have gone to Miami favored v. weaker teams in the past and lost, and this one isn't anything like some of those past games. The Patriots have backed into their last three wins in the most dramatic fashion, and lost Gronkowski for the season along the way. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are one of the better defenses in the NFL (ranked 13th v. the pass & 9th scoring) and are capable of scoring in bunches, although that seems to happen more on the road. You might think the Patriots would be destined for a let down considering these two team's pasts and the way in which the Patriots have played the last month, but with the Broncos loss Thursday night the Patriots are back to controlling their own playoff destiny - that's a big deal in New England and isn't taken lightly. It'll be a close game, but the Patriots continue to control their destiny.
Buffalo Bills (-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (43.5): Bills 20-17
1:00 PM, Ever Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 60% rain, 60s)
Reasons: A battle of two 4-9 teams, wow. The Jaguars still remain the worst team in the NFL in my eyes, and most statistical categories agree as they rank near the bottom in everything, but they're actually one of the hottest teams in the league winning four of their last five. The Bills, on the other hand, have lost five of their last six. The Bills respectable rush attack (ranked 5th) should control the game, while their also respectable pass defense (ranked 6th) should shut down any semblance of a JAX passing game. I'd say the Bills should roll, but you never know with these two teams.
Kansas City Chiefs (-5) @ Oakland Raiders (41.5): Chiefs 27-21
4:05 PM, Oakland County Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny, 60s)
Reasons: It's Matt McGloin v. the #4 scoring defense in the NFL. I don't give the Raiders much of a shot here as the Chiefs have been handed a gift from SD, able to tie Denver for the division lead with a victory. McCluster is out, which seriously hurts the special teams game, and the run game to some degree, especially considering the Raiders 12th-ranked rush defense, but the Chiefs passing game should thrive either way. The Chiefs win big on the road and tie up the division.
New York Jets (+11) @ Carolina Panthers (40.5): Panthers 27-13
4:05 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny, 40s)
Reasons: The Panthers are pissed. Embarrassed last week by the Saints on the road, they'll be looking to rebound at home v. the offensively-challenged Jets. Seeing as the Panthers have the 5th ranked pass defense, the #1 run defense, and are the league's top scoring defense, the Jets literally stand no chance. The Jets 2nd-ranked run defense could slow the Panthers a bit, so the game could hinge on Cam Newton's shoulders, which shouldn't be a problem v. the Jets porous pass defense (ranked 24th). Carolina all day, sending the Jets air bound for the season.
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans (42): Cardinals 24-21
4:25 PM, LP Field, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny, cold, 30s)
Reasons: A tale of two teams trending in opposite directions, the Cardinals have won five of six, while the fading Titans have lost their last four of five. The Cardinals are quietly one of the best defenses int he NFL (ranked 12th v. the pass; 3rd v. the run; 7th scoring) and should bottle up this mediocre offense, although they did lose potential ROY defensive back Tyrann Mathieu to a season-ending knee injury. The Titans respectable pass defense could give Carson Palmer a little trouble, but Arizona should take care of this game as they try to remain relevant in the playoff picture.
New Orleans Saints (-6) @ Saint Louis Rams (47.5): Saints 28-21
4:25 PM, Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, MO (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: All three of the Saints losses have come on the road, but that's been outside, where the poor Saints can't hang. This game is in a dome, so the Saints will be right at home flinging the 72 degree football all over the place v. this mediocre defense, although they are the 13th in scoring. The Saints defense on the the other hand is pretty stout (5th scoring defense & ranked 3rd v. the pass), and should give the Rams fits. Coach Fisher begins to look ahead to next year as the Saints cruise in another balmy climate. I can't wait until they play Seattle again in Seattle.
Green Bay Packers (+6.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (48.5): Cowboys 31-24
4:25 PM, Cowboys Stadium, Dallas, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: This is a match up of two of the worst defenses in the NFL, Dallas literally being worst at stopping the run, something the Packers do well (10th ranked rush offense). This one has the potential for a shoot-out, but that takes two to tango, and I'm not sure Matt Flynn is up for dancing. The Packers season is all but done, while the Cowboys are still fighting for their playoff lives, as well as their dignity, because how long can you be touted as "America's Team" mired in mediocrity the way Dallas is? Romo is having another great season under center, but producing little hope for the ultimate goal, something remiss in Dallas for a long time. This game will be a microcosm of that: Romo will have a big day and beat an inferior opponent, which will amount to nothing.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (41): Bengals 27-24
8:30 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Cloudy, cold, teens)
Reasons: The Steelers are coming off a bad loss at home in the snow v. the sun baked Dolphins, and it doesn't get any easier facing the 9-4 division-leading Bengals. Cincinnati seems to be clicking at the right time, winning three straight games sporting one of the best defense in the NFL (ranked 7th v. the pass; 5th v. the run; 6th scoring). That could be trouble for the Steelers as they have one of the worst running games in the league, leaving the game to Roethlisberger and the Steelers 7th-ranked passing game, as they try to take advantage of Terrence Newman's absence and pick on Dre Kirkpatrick in his first start at CB. You might give that edge to the Steelers stout WR crew, but Sanders isn't 100% and Kirkpatrick is no slouch. The Bengals are trying to take over the division and there's no time like the present.
Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) @ Detroit Lions (48.5): Ravens 24-23
Monday, 8:30 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The defending Super Bowl champs are surging, winners of four of their last five, their only loss coming in OT to the surprisingly decent Bears. The Lions, conversely, have lost three of their last four and seemed determined to miss the playoffs, as only a low-character team led by cocky coaches squandering such immense talent could do. The Ravens offense struggles, especially at RB (ranked 29th in rushing), and their high-ranked defense (8th scoring defense; 7th v. the run) is banged up, but the Lions are the Lions, and considering this is crunch time, I expect them to fail. The Lions throw the ball well (ranked 3rd) and defend the pass well (ranked 6th), but they make a ton of mistakes and just can't seem to find the winning formula when it matters most. Oh yeah, and their secondary is banged up. They squander yet another playoff opportunity Monday night in front of the home crowd, while the Ravens stay alive.
Good luck and thanks for reading!
Phaulkner
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