Tuesday's Here: Week 15 #NFL Predictions Review

Week 15 results: 9-7 wins (84-45 .651); 8-8 v. spread (49-80 .380)

 San Diego Chargers (+10.5) @ Denver Broncos (56.5): Broncos 37-24 Chargers 27-20

Thursday, 8:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Clear, cold, low 30s)

Reasons: This game is destined to be a shoot-out as both teams rank in the top 4 for passing offense (DEN - 1st; SD - 4th) while ranking near the bottom in pass defense (DEN - 28th; SD - 27th). The only potential wrench in this expected high-scoring game would be the cold (freezing at game time) and the fact that Hurricane Bernard Pollard rolled through town last week and decimated one WR (Welker) and hobbled another (Decker), while yet two more stars nurse nagging injuries (the non-Brothers' Thomas); some of those nagging injuries were around last week, too, and didn't seem to make much of a difference. The Broncos improving run game could give the Chargers problems in the short yardage game, but the Chargers might have trouble running at all on the Broncos stout run defense (ranked 7th). All this points to a high-altitude air assault easily won by the rolling Broncos. The Chargers playoff hopes take a huge hit tonight. Bold prediction of the week? Nick Novak, career long of 53, kicks an NFL record 65-yard FG in the thin air tonight. Sorry Prater, but mark it dude.

The Chargers got the Manning in this one, flushing him out of the pocket and forcing him to scramble on several occasions, while keeping him off the field (21 minutes of offense), the blueprint to beating him. Philip Rivers, on the other hand, only had to throw for 166 yards as the Chargers rushing attack did just that; apparently the Broncos run defense isn't that great. Welker seemed to be missed at home causing the Broncos to muddy up the playoff picture.

Washington Natives (+6.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (50.5): Falcons 27-20 Falcons 27-26

1:00 PM, Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: These two teams are terrible, both coming in at 3-10, but what's worse is many people had these two teams battling to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl come January - not happening. The Falcons still have a respectable air attack (ranked 6th), but fail in most other things, ranking towards the bottom of the league in both rush offense and defense. The Natives don't fare much better, especially considering they rank near the bottom in pass defense (27th), the one highlight Atlanta brings to this game. The RGIII benching (for health...ahem) and subsequent Shanahan bibble-babble will weigh on this team and ruffle the locker room to some degree, not that the Natives needed any help losing this season. Kirk Cousins just complicates things. Someone has to win this one. 

Shanahan got exactly what he hoped for - another loss, but an "I told you so" performance from back up Kirk Cousins (381 yards, 2 TDs), something I knew would happen. The Natives scored late and had a chance to send the game to overtime, but Shanahan elected for the rare "do-or-die" 2-point conversion for the win and failed. Such a weird situation in Washington, but I suppose they're used to that on all levels.

Chicago Bears (-1) @ Cleveland Browns (44.5): Bears 24-21 Bears 38-31

1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 60% Snow, cold, 20s)

Reasons: The last time the forecast was for 60% snow it dumped 6" and handicapped the first half of the Eagles-Lions game, so I expect snow. The Browns have one of the best yardage defenses in the NFL, but they've given up 31.7 ppg over their last four games. The Bears aren't blowing people away, but they can score, with McCown, or Cutler, who's been inserted back into the starting lineup. If you take away Josh Gordon from this team the Browns compete for the NFL's worst offense, yet the usually stout Bears are currently one of the worst defenses in the league, at least v. the run (ranked last). The Bears will be right at home in the snow and stay alive.

It didn't snow. Go figure. Cutler had Chicago second-guessing their move to bench McCown early on, throwing a first half pick-six, but two fourth quarter TDs in a furious 21-unanswered-point 4th quarter comeback squashed that notion. The Browns top notch defense gave up a lot of yards and the 21-point comeback, but kept the Browns in this one in the first place, returning an INT and a fumble for a TD.

Houston Texans (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (45.5): Texans 24-21 Colts 25-3

1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The Texans, fast becoming the overall worst team in the NFL, fired long-tenured head coach Gary Kubiak - a few weeks after his stroke - after last week's loss, Houston's 11th straight. Despite the state of the Texans, the Colts just backed into the AFC South crown and could be rife for the let down, especially considering how poorly they've played of late. The one strength of the Texans (pass defense, ranked 2nd in the league) should give the depleted Colts WR core problems, even with the recent emergence of LaVon Brazill and Da'Rick Rogers (half joke). And let's not forget: the Texans have lost an NFL-record seven games this year by 7 points or less. I can see the Texans stealing one on the road for interim coach Wade Philips. I'm taking the upset. By the way, Da'Rick may have replaced Jaquizz as the most ridiculous and best name in the NFL.

So maybe these young WRs on the Colts aren't jokes at all; at least TY Hilton isn't. The Colts defensive line aren't either, sacking Keenum four times and causing the Texans offense fits all afternoon. The Colts improved their game on both sides of the ball, beating down the hapless Texans as they prepare for a playoff run.

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (51): Eagles 30-24 Vikings 48-30

1:00 PM, Mall of America Field, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: If only this game had two stud QBs we'd be in for a classic shootout as these are two of the worst teams in the NFL v. the pass (PHI - 30th; MIN - 31st); at least Nick Foles should thrive. On the other hand these are two of the best rushing teams in the NFL (PHI - 1st; MIN - 7th), but both AP and Toby Gerhart are hobbled, which could spell trouble for the Vikings, who are trying to get above .500 at home despite being 3-9-1. That won't be easy as the Eagles offense is rolling and their defense improves by the week.  They should keep rolling. 

"If only this game had two stud QBs we'd be in for a classic shootout...at least Nick Foles should thrive." - the first line in my preview of the game. Foles threw for 428 yards and ran for another 44, while a no-name RB from the Vikings said "AP who?" and ran for 3 TDs. This one was wild as both teams combined for 930 yards and 78 points, with the Eagles squandering a perfect opportunity to take full control of the laughable NFC East.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) @ New York Giants (41.5): Seahawks 31-21 Seahawks 23-0

1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 30% rain, 40s, post-storm)

Reasons: Looks like Seattle weather. Too bad for the Giants, as home field advantage might have been their only prayer. The Seahawks might be coming all the way across the country, but they're coming in hot - as in mad - coming off a close loss to division rival San Francisco. I give the Giants literally no chance as Eli Manning has put on a horrific statistical season for the ages, throwing 20 INTs already, with three games left and these nasty Seahawks coming to town. I suppose the Giants improving defense could rattle Wilson, but I doubt it, especially with no JPP. This could get ugly, as if isn't ugly enough in East Rutherford already. So much for a NYG-NYJ hometown Super Bowl.

Remember a few years ago when Eli claimed he was one of the "elite QBs in the NFL", with the likes of his brother Peyton, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees, annual contenders for the Super Bowl? Well two Super Bowl titles does not an elite QB make, and I'm not just talking from bias. Being a Patriots fan, I consider his two Super Bowls v. NE flukes, not just because they won, but because of the way in which they won, and the way in which they got there, but how many people attribute those wins to Eli? None, they attribute them to David Tyree and the Giants defensive line, respectively. No question Eli powered the Giants to many wins, and many playoff wins, but those two Super Bowls? Please. The evidence for his exclusion from the elite club mounts by the week as Manning creeps towards 30 INT territory (25), a rare feat of infamy, after throwing 5 INTs Sunday. The Giants are awful and are in for major changes. The Seahawks? Another day at the office, led by manager Dick Sherman.

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (41): 49ers 27-20 49ers 33-14

1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 50% rain, 70s)

Reasons: This is San Francisco weather, too, as both west coast teams making cross-continental flights are playing in weather they're accustomed to at home. Besides that the 49ers are coming off a close battle with Seattle, won at home on a last-second FG, while the once-laughable Bucs have won four of five. This game should be won on the ground in some way, as both teams are two of the worst in the air (SF - last; TB - 31st), but they're also two of the best defending the run (SF - 9th; TB - 8th). Either way the 49ers 6th-ranked run game should get the job done, while Glennon should struggle v. the 49ers pass defense (ranked 4th).

Back to Earth the Buccaneers have fallen, as the 49ers held Glennon and Bobby "Who Stopped The" Rainey to 183 yards total offense in 20 minutes and forced two turnovers. The 49ers committed eight penalties, but got Crabtree involved and returned a fumble for a TD, tuning up on an inferior opponent as they try and round into shape for the playoffs.

New England (-1) @ Miami Dolphins (45.5): Patriots 27-24 Dolphins 24-20

1:00 PM, Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 40% rain, low 80s)

Reasons: The Patriots have gone to Miami favored v. weaker teams in the past and lost, and this one isn't anything like some of those past games. The Patriots have backed into their last three wins in the most dramatic fashion, and lost Gronkowski for the season along the way. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are one of the better defenses in the NFL (ranked 13th v. the pass & 9th scoring) and are capable of scoring in bunches, although that seems to happen more on the road. You might think the Patriots would be destined for a let down considering these two team's pasts and the way in which the Patriots have played the last month, but with the Broncos loss Thursday night the Patriots are back to controlling their own playoff destiny - that's a big deal in New England and isn't taken lightly. It'll be a close game, but the Patriots continue to control their destiny.

I'll start off being a good sport by congratulating the Dolphins on a hard fought game, a focused season, and the chance to stay alive in the AFC playoff race. The actually deserve it, to some degree (the players and some of the coaches anyway). Now that the bullsh*t is out of the way, the Patriots were literally robbed again Sunday, by another pass interference non-call in the end zone at a crucial point in the game. Three losses have now been directly impacted by the officials, and even if you consider the PI call v. the Browns last week a gift for the Patriots (which I don't, PI is PI and the Patriots have been victims countless times) it leaves two suspect games in a tight conference race. Bottom line is the Dolphins are much better than most people realize and the Patriots are so banged up even Bill Belichick can't keep up. It showed Sunday.

Buffalo Bills (-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (43.5): Bills 20-17 Bills 27-20

1:00 PM, Ever Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 60% rain, 60s)

Reasons: A battle of two 4-9 teams, wow. The Jaguars still remain the worst team in the NFL in my eyes, and most statistical categories agree as they rank near the bottom in everything, but they're actually one of the hottest teams in the league winning four of their last five. The Bills, on the other hand, have lost five of their last six. The Bills respectable rush attack (ranked 5th) should control the game, while their also respectable pass defense (ranked 6th) should shut down any semblance of a JAX passing game. I'd say the Bills should roll, but you never know with these two teams.

The one thing we knew for sure with this game was that one team was going to come away with four wins and one team was going to come away with nine losses ; think about it. Four Jaguars turnovers and steady play from EJ Manuel was the story to this game.

Kansas City Chiefs (-5) @ Oakland Raiders (41.5): Chiefs 27-21 Chiefs 56-31

4:05 PM, Oakland County Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny, 60s)

Reasons: It's Matt McGloin v. the #4 scoring defense in the NFL. I don't give the Raiders much of a shot here as the Chiefs have been handed a gift from SD, able to tie Denver for the division lead with a victory. McCluster is out, which seriously hurts the special teams game, and the run game to some degree, especially considering the Raiders 12th-ranked rush defense, but the Chiefs passing game should thrive either way. The Chiefs win big on the road and tie up the division.

An AFL classic. Raise your hand if you took the over. Now raise the other hand if it was because you had a feeling these teams were combining for 87 points. This game was straight out of the 60s, and so was Jamal Charles, as in Jim Brown or Gale Sayers, scoring 5 TDs (4 receiving) on 215 yards from scrimmage. The Chiefs also forced an incredible seven turnovers (five INTs), scoring on one of them. The Chiefs have now scored 157 points in their last four games (39.25 ppg) and seeemd poised for a long run in the playoffs, officially making it with the win.

New York Jets (+11) @ Carolina Panthers (40.5): Panthers 27-13 Panthers 30-20

4:05 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny, 40s)

Reasons: The Panthers are pissed. Embarrassed last week by the Saints on the road, they'll be looking to rebound at home v. the offensively-challenged Jets. Seeing as the Panthers have the 5th ranked pass defense, the #1 run defense, and are the league's top scoring defense, the Jets literally stand no chance. The Jets 2nd-ranked run defense could slow the Panthers a bit, so the game could hinge on Cam Newton's shoulders, which shouldn't be a problem v. the Jets porous pass defense (ranked 24th). Carolina all day, sending the Jets air bound for the season.

Pretty uneventful game, as the offensively useless Jets did manage 20 points, but also managed to help the Panthers, throwing an INT for a TD to go along with four sacks. DeAngelo Williams continued to shoulder the load with 169 total yards and Cam Newton looked solid v. one of the better defense in the league. The Jets playoff hopes took an expected hit, while the Panthers kept pace in the NFC.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans (42): Cardinals 24-21 Cardinals 37-34

4:25 PM, LP Field, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny, cold, 30s)

Reasons: A tale of two teams trending in opposite directions, the Cardinals have won five of six, while the fading Titans have lost their last four of five. The Cardinals are quietly one of the best defenses int he NFL (ranked 12th v. the pass; 3rd v. the run; 7th scoring) and should bottle up this mediocre offense, although they did lose potential ROY defensive back Tyrann Mathieu to a season-ending knee injury. The Titans respectable pass defense could give Carson Palmer a little trouble, but Arizona should take care of this game as they try to remain relevant in the playoff picture.

I knew this game would be close, but not in shoot out fashion. This game went from a snooze fest to a thriller as the two teams combined for nearly as many points in the 4th/OT as they did in the first three quarters. Ryan Fitzpatrick led a furious comeback, ending the game with 402 yards passing and 4 TDs, many of those going to Kendall Wright (12 receptions, 150 yards). Three Titans turnovers were costly, and an Antoine Cason pick-six early in the fourth quarter nearly doomed the them, until they went on that furious 17-unanswered-point comeback to tie the game with 10 seconds left. A Fitzpatrick INT in OT sealed the game for Arizona. 

New Orleans Saints (-6) @ Saint Louis Rams (47.5): Saints 28-21 Rams 27-16

4:25 PM, Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, MO (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: All three of the Saints losses have come on the road, but that's been outside, where the poor Saints can't hang. This game is in a dome, so the Saints will be right at home flinging the 72 degree football all over the place v. this mediocre defense, although they are the 13th in scoring. The Saints defense on the the other hand is pretty stout (5th scoring defense & ranked 3rd v. the pass), and should give the Rams fits. Coach Fisher begins to look ahead to next year as the Saints cruise in another balmy climate. I can't wait until they play Seattle again in Seattle.

I still can't believe I took the Saints to cover. They are a different team on the road, dome or not. Despite out gaining the Rams, nearly doubling their first downs, and holding the ball nearly five minutes longer, the Saints also averaged less yards per play, were sacked four times, were penalized eight times, and turned the ball over three times, including two Brees' picks, something he seems to do often in St. Louis. This Saints team stands no chance in the playoffs as they average 20 ppg less on the road than at home, and they won't be home in the playoffs long, if at all. The Rams might be done, but showed why they have reasons to be excited for the future as this clearly stout defense anchors this young team going forward.

Green Bay Packers (+6.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (48.5): Cowboys 31-24 Packers 37-36

4:25 PM, Cowboys Stadium, Dallas, TX (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons:  This is a match up of two of the worst defenses in the NFL, Dallas literally being worst at stopping the run, something the Packers do well (10th ranked rush offense). This one has the potential for a shoot-out, but that takes two to tango, and I'm not sure Matt Flynn is up for dancing.  The Packers season is all but done, while the Cowboys are still fighting for their playoff lives, as well as their dignity, because how long can you be touted as "America's Team" mired in mediocrity the way Dallas is? Romo is having another great season under center, but producing little hope for the ultimate goal, something remiss in Dallas for a long time. This game will be a microcosm of that: Romo will have a big day and beat an inferior opponent, which will amount to nothing. 

The Cowboys can't be serious. There is so much to say about this game that I'm actually not going to say much, except for one thing: When Jordy Nelson scored on a Matt Flynn pass to make the score 26-10 early in the 3rd quarter, he handed the ball to the official and ran straight to the bench, barely accepting the many congratulations offered by his teammates. He walked right passed the many high-fiving sideliners, and even barely acknowledged the many coached who came to him on the bench offering praise. I saw the "We're supposed to be Champions and we're getting embarrassed, so don't high-five me for making it 26-10" look. At that immediate moment I thought "the Packers could actually pull this one off" - I'm not kidding. And they did, in the most dramatic fashion. Tony Romo clearly has connections in Vegas working this December thing to a tee.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (41): Bengals 27-24 Steelers 30-20

8:30 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Cloudy, cold, teens)

Reasons: The Steelers are coming off a bad loss at home in the snow v. the sun baked Dolphins, and it doesn't get any easier facing the 9-4 division-leading Bengals. Cincinnati seems to be clicking at the right time, winning three straight games sporting one of the best defense in the NFL (ranked 7th v. the pass; 5th v. the run; 6th scoring). That could be trouble for the Steelers as they have one of the worst running games in the league, leaving the game to Roethlisberger and the Steelers 7th-ranked passing game, as they try to take advantage of Terrence Newman's absence and pick on Dre Kirkpatrick in his first start at CB. You might give that edge to the Steelers stout WR crew, but Sanders isn't 100% and Kirkpatrick is no slouch. The Bengals are trying to take over the division and there's no time like the present.

Strange game: Ben Roethlisberger plays poorly, yet the Steelers win. This year it's been mostly Ben Roethlisberger playing great and three Steelers bombing. This may have been more a case of the Bengals, fresh off hearing the Patriots lost, dropping the proverbial ball at the chance to solidify the second seed. After going up 24-0 early, the Bengals were facing 30-7 into the 4th quarter before finally breaking through scoring two late TDs to make the score look much closer than the game ever was. Just when you though the Bengals were a strong team going into the playoffs...

Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) @ Detroit Lions (48.5): Ravens 24-23 Ravens 18-16

Monday, 8:30 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The defending Super Bowl champs are surging, winners of four of their last five, their only loss coming in OT to the surprisingly decent Bears. The Lions, conversely, have lost three of their last four and seemed determined to miss the playoffs, as only a low-character team led by cocky coaches squandering such immense talent could do. The Ravens offense struggles, especially at RB (ranked 29th in rushing), and their high-ranked defense (8th scoring defense; 7th v. the run) is banged up, but the Lions are the Lions, and considering this is crunch time, I expect them to fail. The Lions throw the ball well (ranked 3rd) and defend the pass well (ranked 6th), but they make a ton of mistakes and just can't seem to find the winning formula when it matters most. Oh yeah, and their secondary is banged up. They squander yet another playoff opportunity Monday night in front of the home crowd, while the Ravens stay alive.

Speaking of teams people have associated with "strong" or "playoffs", these Lions are neither, squandering the most talent of any teams besides, well, maybe the Cowboys. But no team has more talent on both sides of the ball and does less with it than the Detroit Lions. Word on the street is that Jim Schwartz loses his job this season if the Lions don't make the playoffs, and last night's loss did nothing to help that situation. No firing would be more deserved, maybe sans Matt Millen's firing from the same team several years ago. Gun-slinging Matt Stafford was all over the place last night, putting the Lions in bad spots all night. The Ravens, on the other side, are suddenly making a push toward the playoffs, no thanks to Ray Rice or the Ravens offense, and look as strong as they have all season, especially Justin Tucker, who kicked 6 FGs, including a 61-yarder to win the game. The kick put Matt Prater's 64-yard record FG to shame.

Stay tuned Thursday & Sunday for Week 16 #NFL Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis).

Thanks for reading!

Phaulkner