Tuesday's Here: Week 14 #NFL Predictions Review

Week 14 results: 13-3 wins (75-38 season, .667); 8-8 v. the spread (41-72 season, .363)

Houston Texans (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (43): Texans 24-21 Jaguars 27-20

8:25 PM, Ever Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Mild, high 60s, cloudy/foggy)

Reasons: Imagine how hard the Texans would have laughed if you told them they'd have fewer wins than the Jacksonville Jaguars through 13 weeks of the season? It's not a laughing matter. The Texans, once proud owners of a "Super Bowl-or-bust" mentality, have resorted to accusing their opponents of cheating in an attempt to explain their 10-game losing streak. At 2-10 Houston is fast approaching the worst team in the NFL, a designation applied to their Week 14 opponent for a majority of the season. The Texans are coming of their most disappointing of many losses on the season, squandering a 17-6 halftime lead, only to lose to bitter conference rival New England 34-31. The loss even dethroned the Texans as the #1 pass defense in the league. The Jaguars, conversely, are winners of two straight (and three of four) and scored a season-high 32 points v. one of the best defenses in the NFL last week (Cleveland Browns). Statistically the Texans are still a mediocre team, even elite when it comes to pass defense (ranked 2nd), while the Jaguars remain one of the worst statistical teams in the league. Vegas has the Texans giving 3 on the road, which means even Vegas essentially considers them equals. This is the bottom line: It's a short week, these are two bad teams (a combined 5-19), and even the weather could be a problem. This has all the markings a bad game, so maybe we'll get the complete opposite. Doubtful - despite the two straight wins and home field "advantage" (do fans actually go to JAX games?) I have to imagine the Texans get on track, for whatever that's worth, v. what truly is the worst team in the NFL. It'll be  close, but the Texans prevail on the road.

It happened. The Texans morphed into the Jaguars before our eyes. It was like that mythical Mesoamerican legend, but far less inspiring and not at all honorable. The game was so bad it got Gary Kubiak fired. The Texans have now lost 11 straight games, a franchise record, and set another franchise record Thursday night for penalty yards (177 on 14 penalties). The Texans also set an NFL record with their 7th straight loss by 7 or fewer points, which could prompt one to claim they were poorly coached or in every game depending on perspective. The Texans held the ball for nearly 2/3 of the game and totaled 406 yards of offense, but penalties and two costly turnovers again doomed the Texans, who lost to the once-hapless Jaguars for the second time in three weeks. The Jaguars are suddenly the hottest team in the AFC, winners of three straight and four out of five since the bye. The Tebow supporters are not happy.

Cleveland Browns (+12) @ New England Patriots (45): Patriots 31-20 Patriots 27-26

1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Partly sunny, cold, mid-30s)

Reasons: After coming off two straight 4^th quarter/OT come-from-behind wins, the Patriots welcome the reeling Browns for a more straight forward game being favored by 12 at home, although they were favored by 10.5 v. the Texans last week, too. The Browns bring their 5^th ranked defense to New England, but those ranks are based on total yards and the Browns play in the AFC North, with the exception of the Bengals, not known for lighting up the scoreboard. The Patriots do, however, and with their major weapon getting healthy finally (Gronkowski) and a stable run game (ranked 12^th) they have begun to open things up. If the Browns had any run game to speak of I could see this turning into a game (the Pats run defense is ranked 31^st), but they don’t. The Patriots should roll big here.

This is getting ridiculous. Am I talking about the late-game heroics or the decimating injuries? You pick. The Patriots, for the third week in a row, have gone into halftime down and come back to win in dramatic fashion. No game may have been as dramatic as Sunday's win, as the Patriots prematurely lost their top offensive weapon for the third year in a row. The Browns played lights out, totaling nearly 500 yards of offense (Campbell threw for 391!), and held the Patriots to nothing through the first half. The only halftime adjustments needed this week from the Patriots was to simply play better v. an inferior Browns team. Brady turned it on late again, once again with no weapons to speak of, and willed the Patriots to win with the help of an beautifully placed onside kick and a questionable but justified pass interference call. If you're not a fan I refer you to the games v. NYJ and CAR. Enough said.

Indianapolis Colts (+6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (44): Bengals 27-21 Bengals 42-28

1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Slight chance snow, low 30s)

Reasons: The Colts recent struggles have really caught the attention of the sharps, because these two teams are both 8-4 and couldn’t be more far apart, evidenced by the 6 point given by CIN. Andrew Luck might be the more celebrated young QB in this game, but it’s Andy Dalton who’s quietly made his case as the best young QB, as Dalton became only the second QB in NFL history to throw for 20 TDs and 3,000 yards in his first two seasons (Peyton Manning). The Colts haven’t won two straight in over a month, while the Bengals are two OT losses from winning eight straight games. Both teams are 8-4 and score 24 ppg, but the Bengals are clearly the better team, with a top-10 defense and an above-average offense. The Colts are not as good as their record and should get exposed by this Bengals team at home.

Andy Dalton is quietly climbing the ranks as one of the best QBs in the NFL, not that the Colts are a defensive stalwart, but another day at work produced another 3 TD performance. On the other side of the ball a rapidly declining Colts team backed into the AFC South crown after being shutout again in the first half. It doesn't look good for the Colts immediate future as they appear to be destined for a first round playoff loss. Don't be fooled by the Colts stats, they came late.

 

Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Green Bay Packers (45): Packers 24-21 Packers 22-21

1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: 100% snow, very cold, high 10s)

Reasons: WARNING: Barn burner. These two teams are awful; they’re 1-9-1 in their last combined 11 games and both teams will miss the playoffs after being predicted to content for the NFC. Green Bay is coming off 10 days rest after being blown out Thanksgiving, and the Packers suspiciously high-ranking offense should take care of one of the worst defenses in the league at home.

If the Packers had converted their 2-point conversion I would have nailed this score. I pretty much nailed the game though unfortunately, as this game was awful. The game basically came down to a crucial late turnover by the Falcons, a Matt Ryan sack-fumble, which was converted into the wining TD with almost 14:00 left in the 4th quarter. All this after the Falcons went ahead 21-10 in the 2nd quarter. I'd hate to be a Falcons fan.

Oakland Raiders (+3) @ New York Jets (40.5): Jets 20-17 Jets 37-27

1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Cloudy, cold, mid-30s)

Reasons: Another terrible game in the AFC. These two teams are two of the worst in the league when it come to the passing game, yet two of the best when it comes to the run game. That must speak to the evolution of the NFL because these are two of the worst teams in general in the entire league. In other words, who cares if you’re ranked 5^th running the ball (OAK) or 1^st v. the run (NYJ) if no one ever runs the ball in this league? Both teams are 1-4 in their last five and only the Jets have a long shot chance at the playoffs. This one will stink.

Let me get personal for a second: in a last minute tinker, which one is always strongly advised against, I dropped the TB Buccaneers defense for the NY Jets as I attempted to predict who would score more fantasy points than my regular defense, the Carolina Panthers. Now the Bucs ended up with 27, about as many points as a defense can score, but the Jets had ~20 through the 3rd quarter. I might not have chosen correctly, but I still chose wisely (CAR ended up with -2). Then the Raiders scored 24 second-half points and made my decision look much worse (they ended up with 10, respectable, but far fewer than 27). A pretty evenly matched game for the most part, the Jets went up 20-3 in the first half with the help of a defensive TD, but were outscored 24-17 in the second half as the Raiders run game settled in and wore the Jets down. 

Detroit Lions (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (54): Eagles 31-28 Eagles 34-20

1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 70% snow, cold, mid-30s)

Reasons: The Lions destroyed the Packers Thanksgiving and then had 10 days off. That spells doom for these undisciplined, young Lions. I doubt they go into Lincoln Financial Field, where the Eagles have won two straight at home (where they once dominated) and win v. one of the best offensive teams in the NFL. The Lions might stop the run (ranked 3^rd), but they won’t stop both, as both of these defenses will have trouble stopping either team. The Lions will get sloppy and give the game to the Eagles.

Another personal note: My two star fantasy players, Nick Foles and Megatron, both played in this game. Here comes the doom, ready or not. When I check the weather for these games, I rarely, if ever, check the morning of. The predictions 24-48 hours prior are usually on point enough not to warrant rechecking Sunday morning. Well this time the forecasters were wrong. Heavy, wet snow rolled through Philly and beat this game, and the football, to the ground, quite literally, as Detroit fumbled the ball five times in the 1st half. Reggie Bush injured himself in pregame warm ups, the Lions manages only 11 first downs, 6 inches of snow literally handicapped the game, and the kicking game was non-existent as there were no FGs and the teams elected for 2-point conversions on seven of eight TDs. The Eagles run game went off in the second half after the snow subsided, with Shady McCoy setting a franchise rushing record (217 yards) and they scored 28 4th quarter points.

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (40.5): Steelers 24-21 Dolphins 34-28

1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: 50% snow, cold, mid-30s) 

Reasons: The Steelers are coming off 10 days rest from a tough loss on the road v. division rival Baltimore Ravens, which could have been their fourth straight win. Neither team will probably make the playoffs, but don’t tell them that before Sunday as this looks to be a decent battle. The Dolphins defense can be tough v. the pass (ranked 9^th), but Roethlisberger can be tough v. anyone. The Steelers utilize the 10 days rest and use the Tomlin embarrassment as motivation and get a good road win.

The 6-6 Miami Dolphins beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh in the snow. You read that correctly. The Dolphins scored 10 unanswered points late in the 4th quarter to steal the game away from the wilting Steelers, who seem a shell of their former selves. I was a bit surprised Mike Tomlin didn't run on the field and tackle Chuck Clay himself on that last Miami TD drive. You could blame this one on the weather if a team from the balmiest place in the country hadn't won. Or you could blame it on Antonio Brown, but that would be foul.

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (43): Bucs 23-20 Bucs 27-6

1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny, low 80s) 

Reasons: The Bills are losers of four of their last five while the Bucs were the hottest team in the NFL until the Panthers blew them out. This game is not worth analyzing.  

This game was over at the opening drive. The Bucs led 24-3 at the half and EJ Manuel threw four INTs. Mike Glennon had one of his worst games of the season, but did manage one TD to Vincent Jackson, and Bobby "Makin' It" Rainey launched the game off with an 80-yard TD run, ending up with 127 yards on 22 carries. That was basically the entire game as both teams combined for 460 total yards of offense, averaged less than 4 yards per play, and combined for 23 first downs.
 

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ Washington Natives (45): Chiefs 27-24 Chiefs 45-10

1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Washington, DC (Weather: 100% wintry mix, cold, low 30s) 

Reasons: These two teams have lost seven straight combined games, one due to injuries and great opponents, one due to being over hyped in the first place. The Chiefs are getting exposed with their defensive injuries and the Natives offense is beginning to click as RGIII finally gets on track, yet I still don’t like this dysfunctional team. The Native’s defense is awful and KC’s offense is much better than people think. The weather could be a factor, in which case Washington’s top-ranked run game might come into use, but I like the Chiefs otherwise.

Exactly when is Washington going to learn that the curse of the Redskin has come full swing in these modern times. Sure, the "Redskins" once dominated the NFL, but that was a time of higher tolerance for racism. Now that the PC Age has rung in karma has finally caught up to this once storied franchise, landing them the worst owner in sports not named Donald Sterling. The Six Flags owner has systematically destroyed the "Redskins". Not a very likable guy to begin with, Snyder has facilitated horrible decision after horrible decision landed the "Redskins" terrible signing after terrible signing - lots of low character guys with questionable skills and even more questionable attitudes. That all seemed a thing of the past when the "Redskins" drafted heady, well-spoken, supposedly humble Heisman-winning Baylor QB RGIII. That man passed for 164 yards, threw an INT, and was benched for backup Kirk Cousins yesterday as his team fell to 3-10 after having Super Bowl aspirations. So much for his "All In For Game 1" tee shirt. The Chiefs rebounded from three straight losses to win big on the road in terrible weather. Jamal Charles became even more of cold-weather RB, rushing for 151 yards on 19 carries. I'd give the Chiefs defense some much-needed credit, but this was the "Redskins". Keep the name guys, it's working.
 

Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (43): Ravens 27-24 Ravens 29-26

1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 100% wintry mix, cold, low 30s)

Reasons: The Ravens are coming off 10 days rest, a win v. a tough divisional opponent, and some reassurance that they might still make the playoffs a year after winning it all. The Vikings are 0-5-1 on the road and have a QB making his 3^rd start of the season. The Vikings also rely on the run game (ranked 6^th), which is one of the Raven’s strongest aspects (ranked 6^th), meaning the Vikings might not get much done v. this stingy defense that improves by the week. Ravens roll. 

Bad injuries for a few teams yesterday, arguably most notably Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, who suffered a game-ending ankle injury. This game was a record setter, as both teams combined for six lead changes in the 4th quarter as the teams combined for 44 points in the quarter after scoring only 13 through the first three. Flacco overcame three INTs to throw the winning TD to Marlon Brown with 4 seconds left in the game. The Ravens stay alive in their pursuit of a repeat championship...I wrote that without laughing.
 

Tennessee Titans (+12) @ Denver Broncos (49.5): Broncos 31-20 Broncos 51-28

4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: 40% snow, cold, low 10s)

Reasons: Some people have the Titans winning this game. Don’t be foolish. Just because the Broncos score the most TDs and the Titans yield the fewest doesn’t mean anything. When the Broncos played the Chiefs in that first match up it was #1 offense v. #1 defense…that game ended 27-17, meaning both teams didn’t live up to either billing (DEN scored 13 points less than their average; KC gave up 15 points more than their season average). I expect the same from this game – the Broncos top-ranked passing game won’t blast off, but the Titans 7^th-ranked pass defense will be giving up a few TDs, be sure of it.

The Titans actually led this game 21-10 at one point, but Peyton Manning was so butt-hurt over the claims he was a terrible cold-weather QB that he took things personally and went off, coming within five TDs of Tom Brady's 2007 season record of 50 TDs with three games still left. The Titans did manage three rushing TDs v. the Broncos stout run defense and Wes Welker left the game with yet another concussion, about the only negatives to come out of the game for the Broncos, who won easy after a month's worth of hard-fought battles. 

St. Louis Rams (+6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (41.5): Cardinals 27-24 Cardinals 30-10

4:25, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, AZ (Weather: Sunny, low 50s)

Reasons: The Rams are one of the few teams with losing records that appear to be much better than their record would indicate; coincidentally the Cardinals are one of the few teams with a winning record that not too many people seem to take seriously. Blame that one on Carson Palmer. The Cardinals are pretty good, but then again, the Rams aren’t that bad, which means this game should be closer than the 6.5-point spread. This game will be left in the air for the most part (ARZ has the 4^th-ranked run defense), where Arizona has the advantage.

I said this game would be won in the air. The leading rusher was Tavon Austin at 54 yards - on one carry. The Cardinals did enough to win and the Rams did plenty to lose - including a Clemens fumble return for TD and 11 committed penalties. Both teams were efficient offensively averaging over 5 yards per play, but the Cardinals capitalized on their opportunities while the Rams squandered theirs.

New York Giants (+3) @ San Diego Chargers (47.5): Chargers 24-20 Chargers 37-14

4:25 PM, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA (Weather: Mostly sunny, mid-50s)

Reasons: A tale of two 5-7 teams, both with higher expectations, highlights this late game as the up-and-down Giants try to keep pace in the embarrassing NFC East by stealing one on the road v. an inconsistent Chargers team. The Chargers are the 4^th-ranked pass offense in the NFL, which will be the name of the game as the Chargers won’t get much going v. the Giants run defense (ranked 9^th).  Both of these teams will try to salvage their seasons, which should make for an interesting contest. The Chargers get to .500 at home.

It's getting harder and harder to see how Eli Manning won one Super Bowl, let alone two, especially against my Patriots, a team known for taking full advantage of inept QBs. Manning leads the NFL with 20 INTs through 13 games (tied with Geno Smith...hello NYC) and was top-10 last season with 15 INTs. 35 INTs in his last 29 game. You can't spell elite without Eli and he surely is an elite INT thrower, but that's about it. Please don't talk about a lack of weapons - not only are Manning's WRs perfectly healthy, the Giants even have Antonio Brown, the supposed early season issue. On top of all this the Giants were improving drastically defensively. The Giants are just bad. This game was more about the Chargers and Phillip Rivers (3 TDs), who rebounded from a bad home loss last week to win big v. the hapless Giants, who seem poised for their first losing season since Tom Coughlin's first. 

Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (41): 49ers 27-24 49ers 19-17

4:25 PM, Candlestick Park, San Francisco, CA (Weather: Sunny, mid-50s)

Reasons: It doesn’t get more evenly matched then these two teams. Whether it’s the run game (SEA – ranked 3^rd; SF – ranked 7^th), pass defense (SEA – ranked 1^st; SF – ranked 3^rd), run defense (SEA – ranked 11^th; SF – ranked 11^th), or points per game (SEA – 29 ppg; SF – 27 ppg) these two teams are meant for each other. If I weren’t such a diehard Patriots fan I might wish these two teams were in different conferences so they could meet in the Super Bowl. These two teams only weakness comes in the passing game, and their QBs are Russell Wilson, potential league MVP, and Colin Kaepernick, the guy who would’ve won the Super Bowl MVP if they had won last year. So yeah, these two teams don’t really have weaknesses. The Seahawks have owned SF lately, which seems to point to a 49er win at home as they try and take back some divisional momentum. Not sure if I see that happening, but the Seahawks will certainly miss their secondary guys more v. Boldin and Davis. It’ll be a battle, but SF squeaks out a win at home.

The defensive battle most people expected, the 49ers kept the division title away from the Seahawks at least one more week as a hobbled Frank Gore put the team on his back when they needed him and scampered down the field setting up the game-ending FG with 26 seconds left in the game. Both Kaepernick and Wilson played down and threw INTs, while the RBs Lynch and Gore battled tough, doing just enough to keep their teams in it. This one belonged to Phil Dawson, who kicked three other FGs in addition to the 22-yard game winner. If the game taught us anything it was that the 49ers needed home field advantage just to squeak out the win. The Seahawks are mauling anyone going to Seattle.

Carolina Panthers (+3) @ New Orleans Saints (46): Saints 27-24 Saints 31-13

8:30 PM, Super Dome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons:  This game comes down to one thing: The Saints are 10-0 in their last ten home prime time games and they’re coming off a tough loss on the road in need of some seeding help. If they lose to the Panthers at home, they could essentially kiss any home field advantage goodbye, which we all know would spell doom for any New Orleans Super Bowl chances as well. On the other side of the ball the Panthers are relevant for the first time in a while, have won eight straight games, and own one of the best defenses in the league (ranked 6^th v. the pass; 2^nd v. the run). Something has to give in the passing game as both teams can stop the run (Saints ranked 4^th v. the run), so the advantage has to go to NO and MVP Drew Brees. This is the perfect opportunity for NO to remind Carolina who’s boss and they will. 

Drew Brees and the Saints offense did exactly what the entire world thought they would do. What surprised most people was the Saints clamping down on Cam Newton and the Panthers, essentially shutting them down. After going up 6-0 in the first quarter the Saints settled down and unsettled Newton, sacking him five times, rattling him throughout the game. The Panthers run game (128 yards) didn't do much for Carolina, but New Orleans pass game did plenty for them, torching Carolina for 373 yards and 4 TDs (minus the sack yardage). The Saints head to Carolina in two weeks for a rematch and it'll be interesting to see the Panther's adjustments. It'll also be interesting to see how Newton reacts, having only thrown for 111 yards on 34 attempts, a sad 3.26 yards per attempt. One week ago people had the Panthers possibly coming out of the NFC; it's amazing what can happen in a week.
 

Dallas Cowboys (+1) @ Chicago Bears (49.5): Cowboys 28-27 Bears 45-28

Monday 8:30 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Clear, very cold, low 10s)

Reasons: I said the Cowboys wouldn’t hack the cold a few weeks ago v. the Giants and I was wrong, so I’m throwing the weather factor out (although it will be 12 degrees). It’s also interesting to note that the Bears passing game (ranked 6^th) haven’t skipped a beat since losing Jay Cutler. That offense will thrive v. the Cowboys 31^st ranked pass defense, as should the Cowboys run game v. the Bears last ranked run defense. This will be another close game and the frigid air could actually affect the passing game, which would put the run games front and center. The Bears only lose home games to high-powered offenses…uh oh. I like the Cowboys to squeak this one out on the road. 

Had I known the Bears were celebrating Mike Ditka at halftime I might not have bet against the Bears, especially in 10 degree weather, but I truly thought the 6-6 Cowboys were up to something, while the 6-6 Bears where playing beyond their capabilities. The Bears exploited the Cowboys horrendous defense for 490 yards of total offense and five TDs, while Tony Romo, under the gun for poor December performances, threw for a measly 104 yards (although those yards miraculously accounted for 3 TDs). Two late scores by the Cowboys makes this box score look a lot closer than the game ever was, despite Dallas going up quickly 7-0 on a Dez Bryant TD catch. Despite the loss the Chicago, Dallas still holds the playoff tie-breaker over them due to a better win % in conference games (as opposed to a simple head-to-head win), but I'd say Chicago has a better chance of taking down the Lions for a divisional crown than the Cowboys do with the Eagles. And it's December.

Stay tuned Thursday/Sunday for "Week 15 #NFL Predictions (w/spreads & analysis).

Thanks for reading! 

Phaulkner