2021 NFL SEASON
Good luck at the window this season!
Kansas City Chiefs 9-4 (-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers 8-5 (52): Chiefs 28-23
Thursday, 8:15 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Chiefs defense has been lights out for a few months now, as I’ve been pointing out long before the pundits hopped all over the narrative, and my proof is laying a good chunk on Kansas City to win the Super Bowl at +1400 back in October. Justin Herbert is 2-1 v. KC, however, and the Chargers have their own surging to do if they want to make the playoffs, let alone make any noise in them. The covid bug has hit the Chiefs like many other teams Week 15 (prepare for beyond), but the key absences on the front seven shouldn’t hurt too much v. a mediocre Chargers run game (21st), but it will keep Herbert upright. The Chiefs are on a serious roll and playing indoors only giving three points to a slower Chargers team. Take the Chiefs and the points with confidence, but the overs in Chiefs games are no longer locks.
New England Patriots 9-4 (+2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 7-6 (45.5): Patriots 26-24
Saturday, 8:20 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: The Colts are fighting to stay alive after their 2021 resurgence while the AFC-leading (as of Thursday afternoon) Patriots are back to form after only one year off and are doing it with a rookie QB and a stellar defense led by the greatest coach in NFL history. The only difference between this and 20 years ago was Bill Belichick was only the greatest coordinator to ever coach in the NFL at that point. The Patriots were getting 2.5 points much of the week, which is cause to drive your car through the casino to get to the window as fast as you can before the public bets it down to its proper level, which should be Patriots -2. The Colts may have found life with their 2nd-ranked run game producing the 3rd most ppg in the league (28.5), while Jonathan Taylor (1684 total yards; 5.6 ypc; 18 total TDs) and Carson Wentz (23 total TDs; 5 INTs) cannabilize each other's MVP votes, but the Patriots have the top-3 defense (top scoring defense) by several metrics to compliment a top-10 offense that most people aren’t even aware exists (NE 9th rushing; 10th scoring offense). These two teams TO differentials are also nearly identical (IND: 1ST +13; NE: 3RD +10). This will be the third of four consecutive tests for New England (TEN/BUF/IND/BUF), and if they don’t answer the bell, the Colts still won’t cover it, which means we’re likely in for a very good, close game.
Carolina Panthers 5-8 (+10.5) @ Buffalo Bills 7-6 (43.5): Bills 30-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 30% snow; low 30s)
Keys: There’s no room for error at New Era Stadium Sunday, and the Panthers could be playing in snow, which they’re not accustomed to in the least, playing right into a reeling Bills hands. The Panthers no longer have any firepower and a decent defense has to contend with a serious offense on the road, although Josh Allen is questionable, but toughness is one of Allen’s best qualities and the Bills need every win they can get from here on out.
Arizona Cardinals 10-3 (-13) @ Detroit Lions 1-11-1 (47.5): Cardinals 31-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Cardinals are indoors playing the worst team in the NFL trying to secure a playoff bid. The only knock is the Cardinals lost Deandre Hopkins for the season, but the Lions lost TJ Hockenson for the season, too, so take the Cardinals with confidence, but watch the O/U because the Cardinals could win 30-17, the assumed score the public has bet the game to with some help from Las Vegas, and you’d still get burned on the over.
New York Jets 3-10 (+8.5) @ Miami Dolphins 6-7 (42): Dolphins 24-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 50% rain; low 80s)
Keys: Ummm, has anyone noticed the Dolphins have won five straight games by an average score of 23-11, albeit against terrible competition, save the Baltimore Ravens? That’s impressive no matter the SoS, especially for a Dolphins team not particularly known for anything besides blitzing the QB and possible making the wrong decision by drafting injury-prone Tua Tagovailoa. The Jets have made plenty of their own terrible decisions and don’t seemed destined for change any time soon, but with Jaylen Waddle out I’m not sure the Dolphins score enough to cover 8.5 points in the rain.
Dallas Cowboys 9-4 (-10.5) @ New York Giants 4-9 (44.5): Cowboys 27-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Keys: If the Cowboys were playing Arizona next week and not Washington this would feel like a trap game, because the Cowboys are one game from being the top teams in the NFC, a title that just so happens to be partially owned by that Cardinals team the Cowboys face in two weeks (t-Green Bay Packers), and it’s a long-running joke how the Cowboys handle success. The head of the Giants body (Saquon Barkley; Daniel Jones) is once again questionable for the game, and let’s be honest, the duo hasn’t produced much when they were healthy, so once again it’s up to the Giants defense, which is the only reason the Giants have four wins. The Cowboys are still banged up at key spots and are under a lot of pressure to beat the inferior division rival Giants on the road, so let’s say the Cowboys win, but 10.5 points is a lot to cover under the circumstances, especially the way Ezekiel Elliot has been playing.
Tennessee Titans 9-4 (-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 6-6-1 (41.5): Steelers 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Keys: In the past five games the Titans beat a good Rams team and a terrible Jaguars team, lost to a great Patriots team, a mediocre Saints team and an awful Texans team. This is not the level of play we expect from the team only losing the top AFC seed via tie-breaker to the New England Patriots, although the Kansas City Chiefs could have a 0.5-game lead in the AFC after TNF. The Steelers are that scrappy overachieving team fighting for their playoff lives led by a veteran in Ben Roethlisberger (Q), who’s been in these battles for decades, and a coach in Mike Tomlin who’s been at it almost as long. The Steelers also have a young dominant defensive player in TJ Watt, another thing Pittsburgh is used to, so I wouldn’t count the Steelers out quite yet, especially at home against the wall.
Houston Texans 2-11 (+3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 2-11 (39.5): Jaguars 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 40% rain; high 70s)
Keys: Do the Jaguars rally around Urban Meyer getting fired this week or do they implode? I guess there’s nothing left to implode and the Texans might be the only team in the NFL worse than they are so I suppose the time for excuses is over in Jacksonville.
Cincinnati Bengals 7-6 (+1.5) @ Denver Broncos 7-6 (43.5): Broncos 24-20
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 50s)
Keys: Denver is only 3-2 as a home favorite ATS this year, which is surprising because it seems like every time they play at home they’re crushing teams, but that’s why eye witness accounts are unreliable in the legal world, and apparently, in the football analysis world, too. Covid has taken a bite of the Bengals, too, which combined with the altitude and the Bengals -4 TO differential likely spells doom for Cincinnati.
Atlanta Falcons 6-7 (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 7-6 (46): 49ers 28-21
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Chance rain; mid-50s)
Keys: It’s amazing one W/L separates two teams that couldn’t be more different metrically, which can simply be summed up via point differential (SF: +2.1 ppg; ATL: -8.4 ppg), which combined (10.5 points) is almost the spread. How interesting. The Falcons have won two of the past three games. That has to be worth something.
Green Bay Packers 10-3 (-4.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 8-5 (43.5): Packers 27-17
Sunday, 4:25 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 70% rain; low 60s)
Keys: Lamar Jackson is questionable, and it’s more like doubtful based on their roster moves, so it’s safe to say the Packers will likely roll given the circumstances and what’s at stake for both teams (Top conference seed v. making playoffs). This line has moved, too, but I’m can’t keep up with it. Normally this would be a potential Super Bowl preview, but the Ravens have struggled with consistency all season, even with Jackson at the helm, and one of the answers lies in TO differential. The Packers (+12) rank 2nd in the league while the Ravens (-9) rank 29th, which doesn’t bode well for the Ravens in the rain.
New Orleans Saints 6-7 (+10.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-3 (46.5): Buccaneers 27-20
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 30% storms; low 80s)
Keys: The last time these two teams met Devon White knocked Jameis Winston out for the season with a dirty hit and things haven’t been the same for the Saints since. You’d think maybe Sean Payton would have some revenge of his sleeve, but the Saints are on the road in the rain against the robot TB12 and a Buccaneers team on a mission to keep pace in the NFC, especially with the Arizona Cardinals losing last week. Maybe the Saints cover, who knows, Alvin Kamara is back, although some of his tackles aren’t, and Tampa Bay still possesses the 3rd-best run defense in the league. Still, 10.5 points is a lot to cover in the rain facing one of your divisional rivals with one of the best RBs in the NFL. Just saying...
Minnesota Vikings 6-7 (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears 4-9 (44): Vikings 27-23
Monday, 8:15 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 70s)
Keys: The Vikings are within 0.4 ppg of being in the top-10 for both points scored and points allowed, which is a feat only accomplished by one other team in the NFL, the Los Angeles Chargers, who also shares their inconsistency. No matter, despite an increase in ppg in four consecutive weeks, the Bears struggle to score in the first place, let alone keep pace with the 4th-ranked total offense in the NFL desperately clinging to playoff hopes, especially with Chicago’s 24th-ranked run defense against Dalvin Cook (978 rushing yards; 4.9 ypc; 2 lost FUM in 198 carries).
Las Vegas Raiders 6-7 (-1) @ Cleveland Browns 7-6 (40): Raiders 24-21
Monday, 5:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 60% rain; low 40s)
Keys: Talk about covid issues, this game went from CLE -6 to CLE +1.5 almost overnight after the news that the entire Browns team is on the covid protocol. A full TD swing in less than 48 hours doesn’t happen much in the NFL unless the star QB drives off a cliff after a drunken ppy Saturday night. In all seriousness, several starters from the defense are out, Jarvis Landry and Baker Mayfield could be out and head coach Kevin Stefanski is already out (total of 17 players out as of Friday), which means the Browns have been hit at the worst possible time after re-entering the playoff conversation. Ask Mayfield what he thinks about that. The Raiders are 1-4 in their last five, the one win coming in OT v. the Dallas Cowboys, but if Darren Waller is a go for Las Vegas the depleted Browns defense could have trouble stopping the Raiders, even in the rain. In other news, I have Nick Chubb on my fantasy roster for week one of the fantasy playoffs. (Note: This game was postponed until Monday)
Seattle Seahawks 5-8 (+5) @ Los Angeles Rams 9-4 (45.5): Rams 27-23
Tuesday, 7:00 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: This game was such a shit show the NFL moved it to Tuesday night. Originally I had the Seahawks covering against a depleted Rams team, but then Tyler Lockett went on the covid protocol as well as the back up back up RBs. All is not well in the NFL, which makes calling this game about as tough as predicting the future. I suppose if all affected parties are still assumed out Tuesday we can expect more of the Matthew Stafford & Cooper Kupp show, but they could all be back depending on vaccination status, so your guess is as good as mine. (Note: This game was postponed until Tuesday)
Washington Football Team 6-7 (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 6-7 (44.5): Eagles 27-15
Tuesday, 7:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Keys: This is another game that dropped drastically from WAS +2.5 to as much as +12 at some books (MGM; Wynn) with 18 players and counting (as of Friday) landing on the covid protocol list. It’s also only the third time in PFM history I’ve changed the spread pre-post and two have been this week because of covid. The Eagles are flying high after their bye following a strong performance from Minshew Mania (242 yards & 2 TDs on 83% passing), who could start Sunday against the WFT. There’s little doubt the Eagles win, a good chance they cover and the game probably goes under because the WFT won’t be able to field a team, let alone score any points. (Note: This game was postponed until Tuesday)
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 15 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
