2017
NFL SEASON
Tuesday's Gone: WILD CARD ROUND
Week 18: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads &
analysis)
Wild Card Round: 2-2 wins; 3-1 v. spread
2017
regular season final wins record: 146-76 (.655): 66%
2017
regular season final spread record: 98-120-5 (.439): 44%
Note/Key: Statistical
analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF);
points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed
(YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN).
Tennessee Titans #5 (+8.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs #4 (44.5):
Chiefs 28-21 Titans 22-21
Saturday, 4:20 PM, Arrowhead
Stadium, Kansas City, KS (Weather: Sunny;
high 20s)
Reasons: Using the
statistics referred to in the note above the Titans come into the Wild Card
Round of the playoffs the weakest team of the eight. That’s not a hot take
considering the Titans are the 5th seed, but even the 6th-seeded
Buffalo Bills finished in the top-ten in twice as many of the aforementioned
statistics. Of those two metrics the only meaningful one may be the Titans
ability to get after the quarterback, where they ranked 5th with 43
sacks. Tucked away in Tennessee’s 13th-ranked total defense is a great
run defense (4th), which
will come in handy against a rookie running back who should not only win
Offensive Rookie of the Year, but could arguably be the league MVP in Kareem
Hunt (1327 rushing yards; 8 TDs). Tennessee
will need that pass rush against a Chiefs offense that ranks in the top-ten in
point differential (10th),
time of possession (9th),
points scored (6th), yards
gained (5th), time of
possession (2nd) and yards
per play (2nd), not to
mention a 4,000-yard passer in Alex Smith (26
TDs; 5 INTs) and that Hunt guy we were talking about. Tennessee will also
need a big day from their own running back Derrick Henry considering DeMarco
Murray is out for the game, which could be easy considering Kansas City is 25th
against the run. The Titans had an inconsistent season to say the least, and
the same could be said about the Chiefs, but Kansas City is home at Arrowhead
with more talent than the Titans, despite various injuries, and the Chiefs
season was bookended by 5- and 4-game winning streaks, the latter of course
being current.
Kansas City led 21-3 at the half. What’s worse is
the Chiefs had a 91.2% win probability at the beginning of the 4th quarter
when the Chiefs still led 21-10. 52 seconds into the 4th quarter the
Titans made it a five-point game and suddenly the Wild Card Round of the
playoffs for the Chiefs was beginning to look like a microcosm of their season.
The Titans scored 19-unanswered points in the final 24 minutes of the game to
erase an 18-point Chiefs lead, the third largest blown lead in Chiefs playoff history.
The second largest lead ever blown in Chiefs playoff history, 21 points to the
Indianapolis Colts, also came under Andy Reid, and suddenly the Chiefs find
themselves in the same position the Philadelphia Eagles annually found themselves
in: Always the bride’s maid, never the bride. Adding insult to injury was
Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, coming off his worst season as a pro,
catching his own pass to score the game-winning touchdown. Only the second such
occurrence in NFL history (Brad Johnson, Minnesota Vikings, 1997), Mariota
threw a pass intended for the end zone, but the pass was batted down by the
corpse of Darrell Revis right into the hands of a clearly shocked Mariota, who
very smartly dove for the pylon and scored the go-ahead touchdown. Give the
Titans all their due credit, and blame some of this game on the officiating (an
official actually retired after this game), but this game was Kansas City’s
season wrapped up in one disappointing playoff game. Once again it’s wait until
next year, but next year might be without Alex Smith, and maybe even Andy Reid.
Atlanta Falcons #6 (+6)
@ Los Angeles Rams #3 (48.5): Rams 27-23 Falcons 26-13
Saturday, 8:15 PM, LA Coliseum,
Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Cloudy; high
60s)
Reasons: The reigning NFC
champs barely made it to the playoffs, which is actually quite a feat
considering the amount of teams that historically miss the playoffs the year
following a Super Bowl appearance. The Falcons did in part to a 6-2 second-half
record and in part by becoming one of the better defenses in the NFL, ranking
in the top-ten in points against (8th)
and yards allowed (9th),
both much better than a Rams defense that gets far more media coverage, while
sacking the quarterback 39 times (13th).
That’s not really surprising as the Falcons are coached by Dan Quinn, and actually
may even raise questions of “Why not sooner?” considering Quinn was the
mastermind behind many of those great recent Seattle Seahawks defenses. The
Falcons offense is a shell of it’s record-breaking 2016 self, but still remains
one of the most explosive offenses in the league (3rd yards per play; 8th yards gained) as well
as one of the league’s most efficient (1st
3rd-down efficiency). The Rams are simply one of the best teams
in the NFL, period. Los Angeles dominates both sides of the ball, anchored by
players like MVP-candidate Todd Gurley (1305
rushing yards; 13 TDs) on offense and Defensive Player of the Year
candidate Aaron Donald (11 sacks; 5
forced fumbles; 1 TD) on defense. Combine a Rams team that is close to or
surpasses the Falcons in nearly every meaningful metric to the fact the Rams
owned Dan Quinn when he was a Seahawks coach and about the only thing left is
the Falcons playoff experience over the young Rams team that has exactly none.
The Falcons will get after Jared Goff, but that pass rush will likely only set
up Gurley, and the Rams are just too talented on both sides of the ball.
The lights were too bright for the young Rams,
MVP-candidate Todd Gurley didn’t reach that magical 20 touches needed for a
Rams win, and the suddenly stout Falcons defense continues to morph into the speedy
Seahawks defense Dan Quinn used to coach. Those were three keys to a game in
which all three young Rams stars – Aaron Donald, Todd Gurley and Jared Goff – played
well, while the Falcons stars were mediocre, save the typical All-Pro
performance from Julio Jones (9 receptions for 94 receiving yard; 1 TD). The
biggest key to the game, however, was time of possession, where the Falcons
held a 15+ minute advantage. Generally unheard of in the NFL, teams that hold
the ball for 15 or more minutes than their opponents are 19-1 this season. The
reason is obvious enough, as a Rams team that led the NFL with 30 ppg managed to
score only 13 points. The Rams still managed 64 plays, however, only eight
fewer plays than Atlanta, which again points to a suddenly stout Falcons
defense, responsible for forcing the only two turnovers of the game, both
Falcons fumbles. No one wants to play the Atlanta Falcons right now except for
maybe their division rival Saints. How the hell did the NFC South send three
good teams to the playoffs?
Buffalo Bills #6 (+8.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars #3 (39.5):
Jaguars 27-17 Jaguars 10-3
Sunday, 1:00 PM, EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Windy; mid-50s)
Reasons: The Buffalo
Bills do the “little” things right. They don’t commit a lot of penalties (9th), they hold on to the
ball (7th in turnover ratio)
and they are very efficient on 3rd down (6th). The Bills also ball hawk, ranking 6th
in the league in INTs (18). Buffalo
also backed into the playoffs in the most miraculous fashion imaginable, which,
after a 17-year playoff drought, might seem like the kind of miracle that has
destiny written all over it. I’m not so sure Destiny picked this route. The
Jacksonville Jaguars, for years the laughingstock of the AFC, and perhaps the
entire NFL, are suddenly ranked in the top-ten (top-six, technically) in ten of the 13 statistics mentioned in the
opening note in addition to ranking 11th in the league yards per
play (0.1 ypp separates 11th
from 9th). The Jaguars are one clearly one of the best teams in
the NFL, but the defense really separates them from the rest of the league. In
addition to being the No. 2 defense in total defense and points allowed, the
Jaguars rank 2nd in both sacks (55)
and INTs (21). In other words,
they’ll smother Tyrod Taylor and put all the pressure on LeSean McCoy, which
probably won’t go so well. Interestingly the Jaguars rank 4th in the
NFL in sacks allowed, which should allow Blake Bortles (3,687 passing yards; 21 Ts; 13 INTs), largely considered to the
Jaguars Achilles Heal until this season, to operate freely while the Jaguars
defense dominates an overwhelmed Bills offense.
Holy shit this game was boring, but it did tell
us two things: One, the end of the Bills 17-year playoff drought really did just
come in the form of a placeholder for the AFC’s 6th seed, and
second, that Nathan Peterman really is terrible. The game told us absolutely nothing
about the Jaguars because A) Blake Bortles ran for more yards than he threw
for, meaning we’re still confused about Bortles as a quarterback, and B) the
Bills put up absolutely no fight on offense, gaining only 263 total yards in
over 32 minutes. The Jaguars could be an all-time great defense, but it’s hard
to measure them against history when their competition was the AFC South or the
Bills in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs; even the Jaguars two interception
weren’t impressive considering one came against Nate Peterman in the final
minutes of the game. Now the Jaguars head into Pittsburgh to face the Steelers
in the Divisional Round; last time Jacksonville played the Steelers this season
they picked off Ben Roethlisberger a career-high five times.
Carolina Panthers #5 (+7) @ New Orleans Saints #4 (48): Saints 27-24 Saints 31-26
Sunday, 4:40 PM, Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Conventional
wisdom says the Panthers won’t lose to their division rival three times in one
season, but the simple fact is the Saints are at home, making that task a
little non-conventional for Carolina. The Saints also won those two regular
season games 34-13 (Week 3) and 31-21
(Week 13), by an average margin of
15.5 points, and during bookend parts of the season in which both teams were
well established. In other words, it’s hard to point to many, if any,
significant reasons why the Saints would have dominated both games besides the
fact they’re the better team. If you want to point to Cam Newton still
recovering from his off-season surgery when the Saints beat Carolina Week 3 one
could counter that the Saints were 0-2 when they decidedly beat the Panthers
that week. Most people familiar with these two teams will immediately assume a
classic defense v. offense football game, in which the Drew Brees-led Saints
try to air it out against the vicious front seven of the vaunted Carolina
defense. That still rings true to some degree, but most fans would be shocked
to see the Saints defense tied the Panthers in points allowed (20.4 ppg; 11th). The Saints
also get after the quarterback, ranking 7th in the NFL with 42
sacks; by comparison the Panthers rank 3rd in the NFL with 50 sacks,
but Carolina doesn’t protect against the against the pass rush as well as the
Saints do, who ranked 2nd in the league in sacks allowed (20), which means Drew Brees could be
upright most of the day. Cam Newton might not be upright all day, but he’ll
come into New Orleans fired up, where he is 3-4 all-time in the Superdome with
out any playoff games. I imagine the Saints will be a lot more fired up, and
let’s be honest; the Saints are a much better team at home (7-1 in 2017), and probably in general.
I’m not sure we’ve ever seen three teams from the NFC South make the playoffs,
especially considering the NFC South is usually trash, so it’ll be tough to
have to watch one of these teams go home after the Wild Card Round, because
both are capable of making their own long playoff runs.
The third time turned out to not be a charm as
the Panthers dropped a rare three games to the Saints this season, twice via
regular season divisional matchup and one via cruel playoff scheduling fate. The
Panthers held probable Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara to only 23 yards
on 10 carries and Cam Newton (349 passing yards; 2 TDs) had one of those games
where he outshined Drew Brees (376 passing yards; 2 TDs; 1 INT), arguably the
greatest thrower of the football in NFL history, yet it wasn’t enough for the
Panthers to overcome the Saints, who went from a team no one even considered at
the start of the season into a bona fide Super Bowl contender, if not for that devastating
injury to left guard Andrus Peat. The Saints offense could suffer without Peat,
especially the ground game, which had been one of the best in the NFL, but Peat’s
absence won’t effect the Saints defense much, which sacked Cam Newton four
times and defended seven of his passes. Although New Orleans gave up 413 total
yards, they only allowed 4.1 yards per rush and 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Cam
Newton showed tremendous growth both on the field late in the game and after
the game, although he did throw his teammates under the bus by claiming they
were satisfied with merely being in the playoffs. You know what, nothing is
ever going to change in Carolina, especially if P Diddy buys the team.
Stay
tuned for Week 19 #NFL Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION coming Saturday morning.
