2017 NFL SEASON
Week
12: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads
& analysis)
Week
11 results: 8-5 wins (season: 81-52; .609); 4-9 v. spread (season: 64-69; .481)
THANKSGIVING
EDITION
Thanksgiving food for thought: OJ will be watching Thanksgiving Day football from home this year.
Thursday, 12:30 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
The Minnesota Vikings might be the best team in the NFL, especially after
undressing the league’s best offense in the Rams 24-7 Sunday, but for some reason this
feels like a trap game in the sense that the Lions suddenly love their annual Thanksgiving
Day home game (4-0 since 2013), and
as good as the Vikings have been on both sides of ball, one expects something to
go wrong, at least offensively, any week. The truth is, however, nothing seems
to be going wrong for this Vikings team, save perhaps and early injury to rookie sensation Dalvin Cook and the awkward fumbling of
the current quarterback situation. The only thing the Lions do really well is hold
on to the ball (7th in
turnover ratio) and score (5th
in points per game, 27.1), but the Vikings just happen to be 2nd
in the NFL in points allowed (17.2 ppg).
The Lions winning streak on Turkey Day could be coming to an end.
Los Angeles Chargers 4-6 (-1) @ Dallas Cowboys 5-5 (48):
Chargers 23-21
Thursday, 4:30 PM, AT&T
Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: These two teams
are relatively evenly matched, although in vastly different areas. For example,
the Cowboys are the 9th-ranked scoring offense (24.2 ppg) while the Chargers are the 8th-ranked scoring
defense (19.6 ppg); the Cowboys are a
mediocre team in turnover ratio, yards per play and time of possession, but
they ranked 7th in 3rd-down efficiency, while the Chargers
are one of the worst teams in the NFL at two of those things (TOP: 27th; 3rd-down
efficiency: 25th) and one of the best teams in the NFL at two of
those things (Turnover ratio: 5th;
Yards per play: 9th). The one clear separation between these two
teams in point differential, where the Cowboys rank 3rd (7.2 ppg) and the Chargers rank 21st
(-0.8 ppg), but all that really tells
us is that the Chargers have played a lot of close games, which we already
knew, and the Cowboys are inconsistent, which we already knew. The Cowboys are reeling without Ezekiel Elliot and with left tackle Tyron
Smith still questionable on a short week, I don’t expect much of a rally from
Dallas. Expect another close game with the Chargers prevailing.
Things haven't gone well in Dallas in the absence of Ezekiel Elliot and the Cowboys better figure things out quick if they want to salvage their season.
New York Giants 2-8 (+7) @ Washington Football Team
4-6 (44.5):
Washington 24-21
Thursday, 8:30 PM, FedEx
Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Clear; High
30s)
Reasons: The Giants may
be 2-3 after starting the season 0-5 (although
3 of those losses were by 5 or fewer points),
but they remain one of the worst teams in the NFL. All is essentially lost for
the Giants in 2017, some of which has been out of their control, but the
Washington Football Team has something to play for considering the floor may be
falling out from underneath the Cowboys season. The Washington Football Team is
also respectable, ranking in the top-12 in the NFL in points (12th: 23.8 ppg), time of possession (12th), yards gained (9th) and yards per play (7th). The Washington Football
Team also just lost to the hottest team in the NFL in the New Orleans Saints in
OT by only three points; however, two of Washington’s four wins have also come
by three points, and that three-point lose to New Orleans came after holding a 15-point
lead with only a few minutes remaining in the game. The point is Washington is
exactly who we thought they were, and have key injuries on offense to deal with,
but the New York Giants are absolutely terrible.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-6 (+9.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 6-4 (48.5): Falcons 28-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes-Benz Dome, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes-Benz Dome, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Falcons are
winners of two straight, against the Seahawks and Cowboys, which may or may not
impress you. The Buccaneers are also winners of two straight, but somehow it
doesn’t seem top carry the same weight. Atlanta isn’t even that great at home this
season (2-2), but Tampa Bay
is terrible on the road (1-4). The Falcons
just seem hotter right now.
Cleveland Browns 0-10 (+8) @ Cincinnati Bengals 4-6
(38):
Bengals 21-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Reasons: This game is an
abomination. The Browns rank 27th or worse in time of possession,
yards gained, points against and yards per play, and are dead last in 3rd-down
efficiency turnover ratio, points and point differential. Hysterically,
Cleveland ranks 9th in yards allowed. Things aren’t much better to
the south; in fact, they’re nearly identical. Cincinnati ranks 27th or
worse in the same statistical categories, except time of possession and yards
gained, in which they rank last. Just like the Browns, the Bengals also keep
the big plays down (12th in
yards allowed), but unlike the Browns (25.9
ppg allowed), the Bengals are 10th in point allowed (19.9). Must-see television, but I’m sure
it’s the kneeling.
Pretend this is Deshone Kizer. It doesn't really matter.
Tennessee Titans 6-4 (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts 3-7 (45.5): Titans 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
The Titans were on quite a little hot streak until they ran into the Steelers, which
could be the best teams in the NFL, while the Colts threw in the proverbial towel when
the announced Andrew Luck would be placed on IR. Truth be told, Jacoby
Brissett has filled in nicely, and this team lost to the same Steelers team,
but by 20 fewer points. That might be enough to give Colts fans hope, but not
this guy.
Buffalo Bills 5-5 (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs 6-4 (46.5): Chiefs 27-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Reasons:
It’s hard to believe that not very long ago these two teams had two of
the best defenses in the NFL; now they don’t. The Chiefs also had the
league’s best offense for several weeks, but that has stalled as well. Kansas
City also started the season 5-0, but have lost four wins of their last five
games, and are now grateful they’re in the AFC West (18 total division wins, 2nd fewest in the NFL) rather
than the division being a serious obstacle to the playoffs. The Bills are
reeling, too after keeping pace in the AFC East for half the season. They’ve
lost three straight games by a combined score of 135-55 (45-18 game average) and are 1-4 on the road for the season. That’s
not going to play well for a confused team that thought Nate Pederson was the
answer against a team desperate to salvage a fast start.
Miami Dolphins 4-6 (+16.5) @ New England Patriots 8-2 (47.5):
Patriots 28-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Reasons:
The Patriots and Dolphins have a strange history in that even in down years Miami
always seem to pose late-season problems, especially when it’s a lopsided match.
Does a nearly 17-point spread count as lopsided? Wow. Not here, however, as the Patriots are home, which hasn’t been
a solid bet in 2017, but that was early in the season and now New England seems
to have figured it out. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are 1-4 in their last
five games and are ranked 30th in points scored and yards gained,
which would mitigate the one weakness the Patriots possess: allowing the most
yards in the NFL (401), which we all
know is skewed by the amount of yards gained in garbage time as teams to try
desperately to keep pace with the Patriots 3rd-ranked offense (29 ppg).
He's baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack...
Carolina Panthers 7-3 (-5.5) @ New York Jets 4-6 (40): Panthers 21-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Reasons:
The Jets have had a nice run in 2017, if the goal was to try hard and then end
up with a mid-round draft pick, and not the top-3 pick most of us expected. The
Panthers seem to have hit their stride, mainly on the legs and arm of a
seemingly healthy Cam Newton and a dominant defense (2nd yards allowed; 5th points allowed). The
trouble is the Panthers seem like they’re an injury away from disaster on every
play, and they’re playing in a division that’s suddenly jammed at the
top with the one team many expected to win the division (Tampa Bay) at the bottom. That means despite Carolina’s success,
there’s not much room for error. Lucky for them the Jets are 1-4 in their last
five games, and the Panthers are 4-1 on the road this season.
Chicago Bears 3-7 (+14) @ Philadelphia Eagles 9-1 (44):
Eagles 30-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Reasons:
The Eagles haven’t lost at home in 2017 and are the league’s top-ranked offense,
while the Bears are 1-3 on the road and losers of three straight games. Some
would say this seems like the type of game that could shock people, but it won’t.
Being
favored by two touchdowns seems like a stretch, but the Eagles have been
favored by big numbers all season and are 8-2 against the spread in 2017.
Seattle Seahawks 6-4 (-6.5)
@ San Francisco 49ers 1-9 (45.5): Seahawks 24-20
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levis Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: 70% rain; low 60s)
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levis Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: 70% rain; low 60s)
Reasons:
The Seahawks
should be right at home in the rain against the 49ers, which are
statistically one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Coach, I imagine he's getting sensitive.
Denver Broncos 3-7 (+5) @ Oakland Raiders 4-6 (43): Raiders 24-21
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: 70% rain; low 60s)
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: 70% rain; low 60s)
Reasons:
This matchup was circled on our calendars as a premier late-season matchup and now features
two of the biggest disappointments in the NFL in 2017. No one expected
the Broncos offense to blow anyone’s hair back, but the defense, once best in
the NFL this season, is now ranked 28th. Oakland’s once dynamic offense
is now ranked 20th in points scored and 21st in yards
gained. Yet, because of Kansas City’s five-game meltdown stretch, the Raiders remain
two games behind in the AFC West, which means Oakland has something to play
for.
New Orleans Saints 8-2 (+2.5) @ Los Angeles Rams 7-3 (53.5): Saints 27-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Stub Hub Center, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Stub Hub Center, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)
Reasons:
No one expected this from either team, but there’s a difference between being
ahead of schedule and completely shocking people. Then again, I suppose no
one should ever count out the combination of Drew Brees and Sean Payton,
much like few doubt the team of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, no matter how grim
things may appear at any point. The real difference here is the Saints defense,
which has been historically bad, currently ranks 9th in points
allowed and 13th in yards allowed. The last time the Saints defense
was ranked this high New Orleans won the Super Bowl.
Jacksonville Jaguars 7-3 (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 4-6
(38):
Jaguars 24-17
Sunday, 4:25 PM, University of Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Sunday, 4:25 PM, University of Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
Everyone keeps worrying about Blake Bortles, but the Jaguars offense, a concern
coming into the season, ranks 8th in yards gained (362 ypg) and 9th
in points scored (24.5 ppg). The defense, the one strong points coming
into the season, has more than met expectations as the league’s top defense (1st in points allowed; 1st
yards allowed). The Cardinals are just looking to salvage 2017 after being
ravaged by major injuries throughout the season.
Remember how funny this was? I imagine the Steelers doing this to the poor Green Bay Packers Sunday night.
Green Bay Packers 5-5 (+14) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 8-2 (43.5): Steelers 27-14
Sunday, 8:30 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Sunday, 8:30 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Reasons:
The poor Green Bay Packers. This should be a lesson in why a team should never put all
of their eggs into one basket, even if that basket holds the second
coming of the messiah in the form of Aaron Rodgers.
Houston Texans 4-6 (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens 5-5 (38): Ravens 24-21
Monday, 8:30 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Monday, 8:30 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Reasons: The Texans were
on their way to becoming the most dynamic offense in the NFL until rookie
sensation Deshaun Watson blew his knee out in practice, while the
Ravens are on their way to staying the most inconsistent team in the NFL.
Baltimore’s defense is vicious (3rd
in points allowed: 17.1 ppg; 6th in yards allowed: 306 ypg), and
they don’t turn the ball over (5th
turnover ratio), while the Texans are one of the worst teams in the league
in turnover ratio (24th).
Whatever.
Stay tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 12 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday.
