Week 12: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) THANKSGIVING EDITION

2017 NFL SEASON

Week 12: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)

Week 11 results: 8-5 wins (season: 81-52; .609); 4-9 v. spread (season: 64-69; .481)

THANKSGIVING EDITION

 Thanksgiving food for thought: OJ will be watching Thanksgiving Day football from home this year. 

Minnesota Vikings 8-2 (-3) @ Detroit Lions 6-4 (44.5): Vikings 28-24

Thursday, 12:30 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The Minnesota Vikings might be the best team in the NFL, especially after undressing the league’s best offense in the Rams 24-7 Sunday, but for some reason this feels like a trap game in the sense that the Lions suddenly love their annual Thanksgiving Day home game (4-0 since 2013), and as good as the Vikings have been on both sides of ball, one expects something to go wrong, at least offensively, any week. The truth is, however, nothing seems to be going wrong for this Vikings team, save perhaps and early injury to rookie sensation Dalvin Cook and the awkward fumbling of the current quarterback situation. The only thing the Lions do really well is hold on to the ball (7^th in turnover ratio) and score (5^th in points per game, 27.1), but the Vikings just happen to be 2^nd in the NFL in points allowed (17.2 ppg). The Lions winning streak on Turkey Day could be coming to an end.

Los Angeles Chargers 4-6 (-1)  @ Dallas Cowboys 5-5 (48): Chargers 23-21

Thursday, 4:30 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: These two teams are relatively evenly matched, although in vastly different areas. For example, the Cowboys are the 9^th-ranked scoring offense (24.2 ppg) while the Chargers are the 8^th-ranked scoring defense (19.6 ppg); the Cowboys are a mediocre team in turnover ratio, yards per play and time of possession, but they ranked 7^th in 3^rd-down efficiency, while the Chargers are one of the worst teams in the NFL at two of those things (TOP: 27^th; 3^rd-down efficiency: 25^th) and one of the best teams in the NFL at two of those things (Turnover ratio: 5^th; Yards per play: 9^th). The one clear separation between these two teams in point differential, where the Cowboys rank 3^rd (7.2 ppg) and the Chargers rank 21^st (-0.8 ppg), but all that really tells us is that the Chargers have played a lot of close games, which we already knew, and the Cowboys are inconsistent, which we already knew. The Cowboys are reeling without Ezekiel Elliot and with left tackle Tyron Smith still questionable on a short week, I don’t expect much of a rally from Dallas. Expect another close game with the Chargers prevailing.

 Things haven't gone well in Dallas in the absence of Ezekiel Elliot and the Cowboys better figure things out quick if they want to salvage their season.

New York Giants 2-8 (+7) @ Washington Football Team 4-6 (44.5): Washington 24-21

Thursday, 8:30 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Clear; High 30s)

Reasons: The Giants may be 2-3 after starting the season 0-5 (although 3 of those losses were by 5 or fewer points), but they remain one of the worst teams in the NFL. All is essentially lost for the Giants in 2017, some of which has been out of their control, but the Washington Football Team has something to play for considering the floor may be falling out from underneath the Cowboys season. The Washington Football Team is also respectable, ranking in the top-12 in the NFL in points (12^th: 23.8 ppg), time of possession (12^th), yards gained (9^th) and yards per play (7^th). The Washington Football Team also just lost to the hottest team in the NFL in the New Orleans Saints in OT by only three points; however, two of Washington’s four wins have also come by three points, and that three-point lose to New Orleans came after holding a 15-point lead with only a few minutes remaining in the game. The point is Washington is exactly who we thought they were, and have key injuries on offense to deal with, but the New York Giants are absolutely terrible.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-6 (+9.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 6-4 (48.5): Falcons 28-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes-Benz Dome, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The Falcons are winners of two straight, against the Seahawks and Cowboys, which may or may not impress you. The Buccaneers are also winners of two straight, but somehow it doesn’t seem top carry the same weight. Atlanta isn’t even that great at home this season (2-2), but Tampa Bay is terrible on the road (1-4). The Falcons just seem hotter right now.

Cleveland Browns 0-10 (+8) @ Cincinnati Bengals 4-6 (38): Bengals 21-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)

Reasons: This game is an abomination. The Browns rank 27^th or worse in time of possession, yards gained, points against and yards per play, and are dead last in 3^rd-down efficiency turnover ratio, points and point differential. Hysterically, Cleveland ranks 9^th in yards allowed. Things aren’t much better to the south; in fact, they’re nearly identical. Cincinnati ranks 27^th or worse in the same statistical categories, except time of possession and yards gained, in which they rank last. Just like the Browns, the Bengals also keep the big plays down (12^th in yards allowed), but unlike the Browns (25.9 ppg allowed), the Bengals are 10^th in point allowed (19.9). Must-see television, but I’m sure it’s the kneeling.

 Pretend this is Deshone Kizer. It doesn't really matter.

Tennessee Titans 6-4 (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts 3-7 (45.5): Titans 24-20 
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The Titans were on quite a little hot streak until they ran into the Steelers, which could be the best teams in the NFL, while the Colts threw in the proverbial towel when the announced Andrew Luck would be placed on IR. Truth be told, Jacoby Brissett has filled in nicely, and this team lost to the same Steelers team, but by 20 fewer points. That might be enough to give Colts fans hope, but not this guy.

Buffalo Bills 5-5 (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs 6-4 (46.5): Chiefs 27-21 
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)

Reasons: It’s hard to believe that not very long ago these two teams had two of the best defenses in the NFL; now they don’t. The Chiefs also had the league’s best offense for several weeks, but that has stalled as well. Kansas City also started the season 5-0, but have lost four wins of their last five games, and are now grateful they’re in the AFC West (18 total division wins, 2^nd fewest in the NFL) rather than the division being a serious obstacle to the playoffs. The Bills are reeling, too after keeping pace in the AFC East for half the season. They’ve lost three straight games by a combined score of 135-55 (45-18 game average) and are 1-4 on the road for the season. That’s not going to play well for a confused team that thought Nate Pederson was the answer against a team desperate to salvage a fast start.

Miami Dolphins 4-6 (+16.5) @ New England Patriots 8-2 (47.5): Patriots 28-17 
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)

Reasons: The Patriots and Dolphins have a strange history in that even in down years Miami always seem to pose late-season problems, especially when it’s a lopsided match. Does a nearly 17-point spread count as lopsided? Wow. Not here, however, as the Patriots are home, which hasn’t been a solid bet in 2017, but that was early in the season and now New England seems to have figured it out. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are 1-4 in their last five games and are ranked 30^th in points scored and yards gained, which would mitigate the one weakness the Patriots possess: allowing the most yards in the NFL (401), which we all know is skewed by the amount of yards gained in garbage time as teams to try desperately to keep pace with the Patriots 3^rd-ranked offense (29 ppg).

 He's baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack...

Carolina Panthers 7-3 (-5.5) @ New York Jets 4-6 (40): Panthers 21-17 
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)

Reasons: The Jets have had a nice run in 2017, if the goal was to try hard and then end up with a mid-round draft pick, and not the top-3 pick most of us expected. The Panthers seem to have hit their stride, mainly on the legs and arm of a seemingly healthy Cam Newton and a dominant defense (2nd yards allowed; 5^th points allowed). The trouble is the Panthers seem like they’re an injury away from disaster on every play, and they’re playing in a division that’s suddenly jammed at the top with the one team many expected to win the division (Tampa Bay) at the bottom. That means despite Carolina’s success, there’s not much room for error. Lucky for them the Jets are 1-4 in their last five games, and the Panthers are 4-1 on the road this season.

Chicago Bears 3-7 (+14) @ Philadelphia Eagles 9-1 (44): Eagles 30-14 
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)

Reasons: The Eagles haven’t lost at home in 2017 and are the league’s top-ranked offense, while the Bears are 1-3 on the road and losers of three straight games. Some would say this seems like the type of game that could shock people, but it won’t. Being favored by two touchdowns seems like a stretch, but the Eagles have been favored by big numbers all season and are 8-2 against the spread in 2017.

Seattle Seahawks 6-4 (-6.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 1-9 (45.5): Seahawks 24-20 
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levis Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: 70% rain; low 60s)

Reasons: The Seahawks should be right at home in the rain against the 49ers, which are statistically one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Coach, I imagine he's getting sensitive.

Denver Broncos 3-7 (+5) @ Oakland Raiders 4-6 (43): Raiders 24-21 
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: 70% rain; low 60s)

Reasons: This matchup was circled on our calendars as a premier late-season matchup and now features two of the biggest disappointments in the NFL in 2017. No one expected the Broncos offense to blow anyone’s hair back, but the defense, once best in the NFL this season, is now ranked 28^th. Oakland’s once dynamic offense is now ranked 20^th in points scored and 21^st in yards gained. Yet, because of Kansas City’s five-game meltdown stretch, the Raiders remain two games behind in the AFC West, which means Oakland has something to play for.

New Orleans Saints 8-2 (+2.5) @ Los Angeles Rams 7-3 (53.5): Saints 27-24 
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Stub Hub Center, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)

Reasons: No one expected this from either team, but there’s a difference between being ahead of schedule and completely shocking people. Then again, I suppose no one should ever count out the combination of Drew Brees and Sean Payton, much like few doubt the team of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, no matter how grim things may appear at any point. The real difference here is the Saints defense, which has been historically bad, currently ranks 9^th in points allowed and 13^th in yards allowed. The last time the Saints defense was ranked this high New Orleans won the Super Bowl.

Jacksonville Jaguars 7-3 (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 4-6 (38): Jaguars 24-17 
Sunday, 4:25 PM, University of Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: Everyone keeps worrying about Blake Bortles, but the Jaguars offense, a concern coming into the season, ranks 8^th in yards gained (362 ypg) and 9^th in points scored (24.5 ppg). The defense, the one strong points coming into the season, has more than met expectations as the league’s top defense (1^st in points allowed; 1^st yards allowed). The Cardinals are just looking to salvage 2017 after being ravaged by major injuries throughout the season. 

 Remember how funny this was? I imagine the Steelers doing this to the poor Green Bay Packers Sunday night.

Green Bay Packers 5-5 (+14) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 8-2 (43.5): Steelers 27-14
Sunday, 8:30 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)

Reasons: The poor Green Bay Packers. This should be a lesson in why a team should never put all of their eggs into one basket, even if that basket holds the second coming of the messiah in the form of Aaron Rodgers.

Houston Texans 4-6 (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens 5-5 (38): Ravens 24-21 
Monday, 8:30 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)

Reasons: The Texans were on their way to becoming the most dynamic offense in the NFL until rookie sensation Deshaun Watson blew his knee out in practice, while the Ravens are on their way to staying the most inconsistent team in the NFL. Baltimore’s defense is vicious (3^rd in points allowed: 17.1 ppg; 6^th in yards allowed: 306 ypg), and they don’t turn the ball over (5^th turnover ratio), while the Texans are one of the worst teams in the league in turnover ratio (24^th). Whatever.

Stay tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 12 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday.

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