Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-1 (-3) @ Chicago Bears 3-1 (44.5): Buccaneers 24-20
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Clear; high 50s)
Keys: Both teams enter Thursday night 3-1, but they aren’t exactly equal. The obvious difference between the two teams is the Buccaneers sort-of-explosive offense (30.0 ppg) relative to the stagnating situation in Chicago. The Bears have barely beaten bad teams, had to come back against worse teams and could’ve lost to arguably the worst team in the NFL, while Tampa Bay has only been getting better since their Week 1 lose at New Orleans. What gives? Attrition. The Buccaneers are coming in hobbled on a short week, which explains the O/U, and Las Vegas is probably counting on another pick-six from Tom Brady, hence the three-point spread. The Bears also defend the pass really well (6.5 ypa), although they might not get to Brady much; Nick Floes, on the other hand, could be running for his life as Tampa Bay ranks 3rd in the NFL with 14 sacks. Consider this hobbled Buccaneers team like Brady’s old New England Patriots teams, so they’ll win, cover and who the hell knows about the O/U, my TNF record is awful.
Arizona Cardinals 2-2 (-7) @ New York Jets 0-4 (47): Cardinals 31-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The Jets are statistically one of the worst teams in the league, but one could argue the Cardinals might have been the most overrated coming into the season. Seven points might seem steep for a 2-2 team traveling across the country, but is it? Kyler Murray needs to get back on track and the weather will be unseasonably similar to Arizona, and despite yielding nearly the same yards per game, the Jets give up nearly 10 ppg more than the Cardinals. Please leave Kyler Murray alone, Turf Monster.
Cincinnati Bengals 1-2-1 (+13) @ Baltimore Ravens 3-1 (51): Ravens 33-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 50% rain; low 70s)
Keys: The Bengals aren’t actually bad, they’re mediocre. Literally. They score and allow exactly the same amount of points (24.8 ppg) and they gain and yield within 20 yards (391.0:409.3 total O:D yards). The Ravens couldn’t be further from mediocre, with a whooping 12.2 ppg point differential, although their yards gained:yielded is shocking. Not only do they give up almost 30 more ypg than they gain, they give up nearly 390 ypg. What’s my point? 13 points is too high for an opponent that scores 25 ppg and gives up the same amount of yards on defense.
Philadelphia Eagles 1-2-1 (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 3-0 (44.5): Steelers 27-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: 40% rain; low 70s)
Keys: Carson Wentz could be in trouble. The Steelers are rested after their covid-forced Week 4 bye, and the Eagles, despite breaking their three-game losing streak, haven’t made it look that easy. I told you last week to take the points because the 49ers were hobbled. Such is not the case here in the rain against a Steelers defense ranked third in sacks (15). What do you know, looks who’s tied for first?
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-3 *(+6) @ Houston Texans 0-4 (54): Texans 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Does Las Vegas really expect the Texans to rally around Romeo Crennel to the tune of nearly a touchdown? Give me a break. This is an awful game, and the one thing the Jaguars do right (10th passing) the Texans defend well (5th-ranked pass defense), hence the Texans giving six at home, which I wouldn’t bank on. Romeo, oh Romeo, where art thou first win?
Las Vegas Raiders 2-2 (+12.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 4-0 (55): Chiefs 38-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: Two very good offenses, one terrible defense and one of the few teams with an actual home field advantage at this point is a lock for the win, and based on a Raiders team with a -4 TO ration (25th) and a defense ranked in the bottom 25% of the league in most metrics, the cover could be a lock, too. The divisional games can be tricky, Kansas City has stumbled of late, and the Chiefs will be starting a CB who hasn’t played a snap in 2020, but this game has sour Derek Carr face written all over it.
Los Angeles Rams 3-1 (-7) @ Washington Football Team (45): Rams 27-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: 40% rain; low 70s)
Keys: The Rams have a pretty special offense and Washington, well, doesn’t. The Football Team plays the pass well (4th), but that’s about it. The days of transcontinental travel for early games being a thing is now a thing of the past, so with a back up QB at the helm for Washington, look for the Rams to win and cover, but the weather makes the O/U a tough call.
Carolina Panthers 2-2 *(+2) @ Atlanta Falcons 0-4 (54.5): Panthers 28-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Suffice it to say the Panthers can throw and score on the Falcons enough to warrant taking the points.
Miami Dolphins 1-3 (+9) @ San Francisco 49ers 2-2 (49.5): 49ers 24-20
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)
Keys: Miami is awful, but they’re still ranked 12th in points allowed and don’t turn the ball over much (0 TO ration), and the 49ers are still licking their wounds. This is like the Eagles situation last week: Take the points.
New York Giants 0-4 (+8.5) @ Dallas Cowboys 1-3 (54): Cowboys 33-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Giants gave the Los Angeles Rams a scare last week, and the Cardiac Cowboys keep you guessing at all times, but if Dallas is going to get right in 2020 it has to start at home against the hapless Giants. The interesting thing here is no team gives up more points than the Cowboys, yet no team scores fewer points than the Giants. Unless the Giants get to Dak Prescott, it could be back to Earth for the Giants.
Indianapolis Colts 3-1 (-3) @ *Cleveland Browns 3-1 (46)*: Browns 27-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 70s)
Keys: This is the second week in a row I’ve not only hitched my wagon to the Cleveland Browns, but I’ve doubled down by taking the Browns points and the over for two of my five Top five picks of the week. Isn’t it obvious? For the second week in a row the Browns are at least three-point underdogs to a relatively equal team, and over the Browns three-game winning streak they’ve averaged nearly 40 ppg while keeping OBJ happy. The Colts can stop the run (4th), the one thing the Browns have dominated, and the loss of Nick Chubb is devastating, but Kareem Hunt was signed for this very reason. The truth is neither of these teams have beaten anyone to earn their 3-1 record, and as good as the Colts defense can be, it’s their offense that should be stunning people, and it’s inconsistent at best because, well, Philip Rivers. Jonathan Taylor has been everything the Colts had hoped, but Cleveland can stop the run, too (5th). The bottom line is Cleveland isn’t losing by three points or more at home and there’s no way this game ends around 24-21.
Minnesota Vikings 1-3 (+7) @ Seattle Seahawks 4-0 (57): Seahawks 31-23
Sunday, 8:20 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 50% rain; mid-50s)
Keys: Bad weather. Bad team. Two awful defenses (both teams combine to yield over 900 ypg). One QB has a 1:1 TD:INT ration while the other has an 8:1 TD:INT ration and has just over twice as many incompletions so far this year as TDs (34:16). There’s your recipe for a seven-point spread and such a high O/U. The weather could keep that total down, but Russell Wilson will undoubtedly upstage Kirk Cousins at home whether there’s a 12th person there to see it or not. Even if the Vikings get loose with Dalvin Cook, the Seahawks still have elite LBs.
Denver Broncos 1-3 (+8) @ New England Patriots 2-2 (48.5): Patriots 21-17
Monday, 5:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: 60% rain; mid-50s)
Keys: Again with this team and covid-19. Yet another star player (Stephon Gilmore) tested positive and forced a second postponement in as many weeks, this time to dinner on Monday night. If not for the hapless Broncos I might argue this would be starting to wear thin on the tightly run ship from Foxborough, but alas the Broncos are terrible. But wait, the Patriots are without Gilmore and Cam Newton again, and we watched them struggling to score at all against the Chiefs last week, despite the Chiefs porous run defense. The Broncos are no Chiefs, but that’s a pretty good indication eight points is too high, as the Broncos aren’t the only team in this match up trotting out a back up QB.
Los Angeles Chargers 1-3 (+7.5) @ New Orleans Saints 2-2 (51): Saints 28-24
Monday, 8:20 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: A Monday Night match up between two teams no one in the world can figure out. The Chargers could easily be 4-0 or 0-4, and have lost their three games by an average of 5 ppg, including an OT loss and a game in which they led heading into the 4th quarter. The Saints are lost without Michael Thomas, which has exposed the 41-year old Drew Brees. Thomas could be back Monday night and Joey Bosa might not, which would be a deadly combination for the Chargers or a wash. These two teams also have winning records ATS despite not having winning records in reality, which tells me the Chargers cover because 7.5 points is a bunch and the Saints can’t stop anyone from scoring (30.8 ppg).
Buffalo Bills 4-0 *(-4) @ Tennessee Titans 3-0 (49): Bills 28-23
Tuesday, 7:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Mostly clear; low 70s)
Keys: Are you ready for some...Tuesday Night Football? What the hell? Nothing says 2020 like Tuesday Night Football. The Titans have been spinning in circles since their covid-19 diagnoses and a surprise early bye week, while the Bills have been re-branding as a high-powered offense at nearly 31 ppg (30.8 ppg, 5th) in the meantime. The Bills can also still stop the run (8th), which means the rusty Derrick Henry might have some trouble getting going, which means the Titans will have trouble getting going. Lock it up.
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Tuesday's Gone: Week 5 #NFL Game Reviews S-M-T EDITION coming Wednesday by the morning commute!
