2018 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 14: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 13 results: 10-6 (wins); 8-7-1 (v. spread); 7-9 (O/U)
Season totals: 125-65-2 .658 (wins); 90-95-7 .487 (v. sp); 102-87-3
.540 (O/U)
Note/Key
(when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS).
The Tennessee Titans season has been as inconsistent as they could've hoped to avoid in part due to the inconsistent health of quarterback Marcus Mariota.
Jacksonville
Jaguars 4-8 (+4.5) @ Tennessee Titans 6-6 (37.5): Titans 20-19
Thursday, 8:20 PM,
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Cloudy; high 30s)
Reasons: What better way to kick off Week 14 than with
two of the worst offenses in the league playing in the cold for two teams that
have played in fewer cold-weather games than almost any team in the league that
doesn’t play in a dome. In rare cases teams that are bottom dwellers on one
side of the ball excel on the other side and such is the case here; the Titans
and Jaguars are two of the best defenses in the league to compliment being
offensively inept, but only in terms of allowing points and yards, because
neither team sacks the quarterback, ball-hawks or even takes the ball away for
that matter. What we have here then is a warm-weather team playing in cold
weather to salvage a lost season against a home division rival that still has a
chance to salvage their season or even win the division (which will not
happen).
New
England Patriots 9-3 (-8) @ Miami Dolphins 6-6 (47): Patriots 27-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium,
Miami, FL (Weather: Chance rain; low 80s)
Reasons: The
Patriots have always struggled in Miami, probably in general, but specifically
in Tom Brady’s and Bill Belichick’s career. New England is 7-9 in the regular
season since 2001 in Miami with Tom Brady starting (1-1 without Brady
starting, including 2000 as Drew Bledsoe’s back-up and 2008 due to injury),
which is astounding considering Bill Belichick has won nearly 75% of his games
as the Patriots coach. Think about that: 13% of Belichick’s losses as the
Patriots head coach have come against the Dolphins in Miami (10 of 77 total
losses). To make matters worse the Patriots are 1-4 in Miami since 2013 and
in most of those years the Dolphins and Patriots were in the same relative
position they are in 2018: The Patriots being playoff bound and the Dolphins
fighting for their playoff lives, which is about as good as its been in Miami
of late. I wouldn’t count on a New England cover, especially considering the
Dolphins are 5-1 at home this season.
New York Jets 3-9 (+3.5) @
Buffalo Bills 4-8 (38.5): Bills 23-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY
(Weather: Sunny; mid-30s)
Reasons: By my calculations this game is one of only three games in
Week 14 with zero playoff implications, at least for the teams directly
involved, and honestly, it’s the only game in which the teams are
“mathematically eliminated” by the fact they share a division with the New
England Patriots, so the hope of winning the division is non-existent, whereas
the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions have a slim shot at catching the
Chicago Bears. In other words, meh.
Don't look now, but the NFC East is a sh*t show again and the hapless New York Giants could win the division as easily as they could go 4-12.
New York Giants 4-8 (+1.5)
@ Washington Footballs 6-6 (42.5): Giants 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Wintry mix; high 30s)
Reasons: The Giants
are 3-1 since November started and seem poised to go on one of their patented
late-season runs where they turn an abysmal season into an 8-8 campaign and
make the playoffs, even potentially getting to a Super Bowl. Of course that’s
highly unlikely considering the NFC competition, but the NFC East is up for
grabs and mainly because teams like Washington have gone 1-4 since the start of
November. These two teams are basically even on paper, save for Washington’s
superior defense, but trending in the opposite directions in reality, especially
considering Washington’s quarterback attrition issues.
New
Orleans Saints 10-2 (-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-7 (57): Saints 30-24
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Rain; low 70s)
Reasons: I can’t remember the last time the Bucs
weren’t involved in a game with an O/U of at least 50 points, but such is life
when you give up 29.6 ppg (30th). The Saints are just the
wrong type of team for this terrible Bucs defense to face, but it could rain, which,
well, could slow the Saints a little. Tampa Bay is coming off two straight
wins, but the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers are no Saints, while
New Orleans is coming off their first loss since Week 1, snapping a 10-game
winning streak, meaning the Saints will be seeking to get back on track and
keep pace with the Los Angeles Rams.
Baltimore
Ravens 7-5 (+7.5) @ Kansas City
Chiefs 10-2 (53): Chiefs 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny;
mid-30s)
Reasons: The
Ravens have won three straight game since putting Lamar Jackson at starting
quarterback, but head to the toughest place to play in the NFL at Arrowhead
Stadium and against a record-breaking offense scoring 37 ppg that also just
happens to be second in the NFL in sacks with a healthy Justin Houston. That
could play into the hands of the Ravens, who will obviously be rushing the ball
a lot, and the Chiefs defense remains one of the worst teams in the NFL against
the run (22nd). The truth is all the running in the world
won’t stop the Chiefs from scoring 30+ points on several drives of 12-180
seconds, so clock management is a moot point against the fastest team in the
league. Ok, maybe the Chiefs don’t score over 30 this week against the top
overall defense in the league.
Indianapolis
Colts 6-6 (+4.5) @ Houston Texans 9-3 (49): Colts 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium,
Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The
Texans are now the “hottest” team in the NFL after the New Orleans Saints loss
to the Dallas Cowboys last week, winners of nine straight games after starting
the season 0-3. The battle of the dome teams should be a good one as the Colts
were one of the hottest teams in the league themselves before losing 6-0 last
week at Jacksonville, but up until that point Andrew Luck (32 passing TDs;
12 INTs) had been on a torrent pace and the Colts looked poised to make a
playoff run. The season is not lost, but if the Colts want to make the playoffs
(“The playoffs???”) they need to start with ending Houston’s 9-game win
streak, which coincidentally started against these Colts.
It's both a blessing and a curse to be led by Cam Newton, who can single-handily win games for you as quickly as he can lose them for you.
Carolina Panthers 6-6 (-1)
@ Cleveland Browns 4-7-1 (47): Panthers 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid-30s)
Reasons: The
Panthers are a team loaded with talent but nothing to show for it, sitting at
6-6 with a -0.2-point differential. Cam Newton (28 TOT TDs; 11 INTs) went from an MVP candidate to throwing seven
INTs in the past four weeks, including four last week against the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers, while the Panthers defense has allowed 31.5 ppg over that four-week
stretch. The Browns aren’t doing much better and Baker Mayfield (18 TDs; 10 INTs) threw three INTs of his
own in a bad loss to the Houston Texans last week, so this game likely comes
down to how many mistakes the Panthers make and if the Browns can capitalize on
any should they arise (3rd
INTs; 4th TO ratio).
Atlanta
Falcons 4-8 (+6) @ Green Bay Packers 4-7-1 (48.5): Packers 27-23
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Sunny; low 30s)
Reasons: Name a game between two more disappointing
team in 2018. Exactly, such a game doesn’t exist. Atlanta had high hopes
entering the season, perhaps even foolish Super Bowl aspirations in their own
stadium, while the Packers are led by the most arrogant guy in the NFL, which
is really saying something, so everyone in the NFL Universe knows the Packers
had higher expectations, which didn’t include firing Mike McCarthy mid-season.
I’m sure there’s an incredible quote about expectations I won’t bother
researching, but suffice to say, it seems like the NFC Championship between
these two teams in January of 2017 was a decade ago.
Denver
Broncos 6-6 (-6) @ San Francisco
49ers 2-10 (43.5): Broncos 24-20
Sunday, 4:05
PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Reasons: Losing Emmanuel Sanders to IR is a major blow
to the Broncos offense, but lucky for them they face the 49ers, a team terrible
enough to award a visiting team six points despite that opponent losing one of
their best weapons on offense. San Francisco has gone from a team people felt
bad for, to a team people talked about only needing a few more pieces, to a
team that still couldn’t win despite a stretch of one-win opponents to a team
that no one talks about anymore, and for good reason. Maybe the cover is a good
idea, but the Broncos have life and the 49ers, well, don’t. At least the Santa
Clara area is nice once you get over the other side of Highway 17.
Cincinnati
Bengals 5-7 (+14) @
Los Angeles Chargers 9-3 (47.5): 30-20
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson City, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons: The
Bengals season is over and the Chargers are a go-ahead FG as time expired
1-point loss to the Denver Broncos away from being tied for the top seed in the
AFC, so despite the game being played on neutral ground a Chargers win seems
like a no-brainer, but here we are again faced with an absurd point spread, no
matter which way the NFL is trending. I hate taking 14 points, but the Bengals
have lost their last two games by an average of 14.5 ppg and the Cleveland
Browns and Denver Broncos are no Chargers team. Still…
The Philadelphia Eagles have flapped their gums as much as their wings this season and neither has gotten them anywhere.
Philadelphia
Eagles 6-6 (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys 7-5 (43): Cowboys
24-23
Sunday, 4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: The
Cowboys are riding high on a four-game win streak that started with these
Eagles Week 10, including snapping the New Orleans Saints 10-game winning
streak last Thursday night. Philadelphia’s struggles are well-documented, but
the NFC East remains a carousel from week-to-week, so anything is possible. The
Cowboys possess one of the best defenses in the league and are 5-1 at AT&T
Stadium, so they’ll try to stifle that new relationship between Carson Wentz
and Golden Tate and let a red-hot Ezekiel Elliot (1149 rushing yards; 6 TDs)
control the clock, tempo and ultimately the game.
Detroit
Lions 4-8 (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 3-9 (40.5): Lions 23-21
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix
Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: This is one of those games I was talking about earlier as being one of
the few that didn’t really have playoff implications, but it mathematically
does, even though that math involves the Lions winning out and the Chicago
Bears losing out, which is not only unlikely, but not the only math involved.
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-4-1 (-11)
@ Oakland
Raiders 2-10 (51.5): Steelers 27-20
Sunday, 4:25PM, Oakland
Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Possible rain; low
60s)
Reasons: The
Steelers continue to be the most inconsistent great team in the NFL, from their
inconsistent play to their inconsistent locker room to their inconsistent head
case quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, who would be in the MVP conversation if
he hadn’t lost as many games with his failed heroics as he’s won with
successful heroics. It should also be noted that the bulk of Roethlisberger’s
13 INTs have come while targeting Antonio Brown, which begs the question: Are
most of his TD passes forced to Brown as well? That notion sort of takes the
mystique out of the ballooned stats if you consider 20+ feast or famine balls are
just chucked up to Brown with the highest hopes. Regardless of any of this,
Pittsburgh plays the laughingstock of the NFL in the Raiders Sunday. Oakland
owns the worst point differential in the NFL (-12.3 ppg) and by a full
point over the next worst team (Arizona), and that’s taking into account
Oakland’s three games (25%) decided by three or fewer points. Pittsburgh
is also 4-1-1 on the road this season, so a win seems inevitable, but by 11
points? The Steelers only won those four road games by an average of 5.3 ppg,
which is less than half the predicted spread.
Los Angeles Rams 11-1 (-3) @ Chicago Bears 8-4 (42): Bears 28-27
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Clear; low 30s)
Reasons:
Unstoppable force meets immovable object Sunday night in Chicago as the league’s
top team and one of the most dynamic offenses in NFL history (2nd
34.9 ppg) takes on the 4th-ranked overall defense in the league,
that just happens to be 5th in the league in points scored (28.7
ppg). The capabilities of these two offenses are predicated upon the
coaching skills of these two teams young, hyper-talented head coaches in Sean
McVay (Rams) and Matt Nagy (Bears), who have breathed new dynamic
life into their NFL offenses, sending opposing coaches scrambling to keep up.
Both teams are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, both teams play
well on the road and at home (Both teams are 5-1 in their respective context),
respectively, neither team turns the ball over and both teams are in control of
their divisions but with teams knocking in the distance, meaning both teams
know now is not the time to take the foot of the gas. Perhaps the one advantage
in the game could be the cold weather, which the Rams are not accustomed to,
but the game really comes down to the availability of Mitch Trubisky.
The Legion Of Boom is long gone for Seattle, but the Seahawks are still in the playoff hunt unless they lose to the Vikings Sunday. The same could be said for Minnesota.
Minnesota
Vikings 6-5-1 (+3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 7-5 (45): Seahawks 24-23
Monday, 8:15 PM,
CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Chance
rain; low 40s)
Reasons: Monday
Night Football is no dud this week as the Vikings travel to Seattle to face the
Seahawks in a battle to stay alive in the NFC. Both teams would have to win out
and need their current division leaders to lose out the rest of the way to have
any chance at their respective divisions, but both teams remain alive in the
Wild Card race. Both teams possess good defenses, the Seahawks ranked 9th
in scoring defense (21.6 ppg) while the Vikings are just out of the
top-10 at 22.5 ppg, but only the Seahawks possess a top-10 scoring offense (26.6
ppg) despite the myriad weapons the Vikings have on the offensive side of the
ball. Neither team has any decided advantage or disadvantage playing at home or
on the road, and both teams secure the ball, which means turnovers shouldn’t
play a large role in the outcome, so I’d expect two well-rested buttoned-up
teams in which one is trying to overachieve their way to the playoffs (Seattle),
while the other is desperately trying to salvage what they thought was a Super
Bowl-bound season. Desperation is a dangerous place to live.
Stay tuned for the remaining Tuesday’s Gone: Week 14 #NFL Game Reviews
coming Wednesday!
