Week 2: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)

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Odell Beckham Jr. returns to action Monday night for the New York Giants versus the Cleveland Browns...we think. 

2017 NFL SEASON

Week 2: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)

Week 2 results: 10-6 wins (season: 20-11; .645); 8-8 v. spread (season: 13-18; .419)

Houston Texans 0-1 (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 0-1 (38): Bengals 21-16 Texans 13-9

Thursday, 8:25 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny; 80s)

Reasons: Both teams suffered embarrassing losses Sunday, but only one team had to replace their starting quarterback. Houston benched Tom Savage for rookie DeShaun Watson in the second half of their game versus Jacksonville, but the damage had already been done against a good Jaguars defense. The Bengals also have a good defense, similar to the Jacksonville, and it’s not as if Watson turned many heads in replacement of Savage. The more alarming thing for the Texans might have been the total absence of their supposedly dominant defense, and linebacker Brian Cushing is now out with a concussion (until he's out for much longer due to PEDs...again).  You could chalk Houston’s lose up to the lingering effects of Hurricane Harvey, and rightfully so, but it doesn’t get any easier on the road versus Cincinnati. The Bengals are dealing with their own concussion issues on defense (DE Michael Johnson), as well as the absence of guard Trey Hopkins to deal with. The Bengals were shut out against a great Ravens defense Week 1, and face another supposedly great defense at home Sunday, but Cincinnati’s supposedly great offense should do just enough to win against a hapless offense already dealing with their own injuries and led by a rookie quarterback. This is an otherwise-great-on-paper-but-probably-still-terrible Thursday Night Football game.

We returned to the boring Thursday Night Football games Thursday with a Texans 13-9 win over the offensively challenged Bengals. Cincinnati only gained 295 total yards and committed the game’s only turnover when John Ross fumbled his only carry and Jadeveon Clowney scooped it up like a walnut and ran it back 50 yards. The Texans didn’t end up firing their offensive coordinator like Cincinnati did, but weren’t any better statistically. Houston gained only 266 yards themselves, but because of the young legs of rookie quarterback DeShaun Watson (67 rushing yards; 1 TD), and the erratic play of Pac Man Jones (2 pass interference calls; 3 passes defended), the Texans were able to squeak by with the win that only seemed mildly entertaining because of a crushing JJ Watt tackle to end it.

Cleveland Browns 0-1 (+8) @ Baltimore Ravens 1-0 (39): Ravens 24-20 Ravens 24-10

Sunday, 1:00 PM, MT&T Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Mostly sunny; low 80s)

Reasons: There’s no rest for the weary as the Browns take on their second tough divisional opponent in as many weeks to start the season. Cleveland surprised many people Week 1, beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 18-14 after Pittsburgh returned a blocked punt early in the 1^st quarter. The Ravens didn’t surprise anyone, but that’s about as neutral a statement one could make, because that means the defense played well and the offense fell flat. Expect more of the same Sunday as rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer (222 passing yards; 1 TD; 1 INT) takes the Browns on the road for the first time against a Ravens defense that only allowed 77 rushing yards and zero points versus the Cincinnati Bengals Week 1. The Ravens are already hurting on defense, but that shouldn’t mean much against the rookie quarterback.

DeShone Kizer was brought back to Earth Sunday after a decent showing in his NFL debut against the Steelers Week 1. Kizer threw three INTs and lost a fumble before being lost to a migraine headache. Kevin Hogan threw a touchdown in replacement of Kizer, but it was already over. Joe Flacco threw for two TDs and Terrance West ran for another, but the Ravens offense was otherwise as underwhelming as you could imagine against the Browns defense. The Ravens defense dominated for the second straight week, forcing two fumbles, three sacks and four INTs, and remains the only reason Baltimore is 2-0.

Buffalo Bills 1-0 (+7) @ Carolina Panthers 1-0 (43): Panthers 27-21 Panthers 9-3

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Mostly sunny; 80s)

Reasons: This game could get hot in more ways than one as two of the grittier teams in the league take the field Sunday in a game that could reach the high-80s. Both of these teams have a run-first mentality and both teams have stout defenses that allow few rushing yards. The Bills allowed only 12 points and 38 rushing yards to the New York Jets Sunday; the Panthers held the San Francisco 49ers to three points and 57 yards rushing. This game will feature two highly athletic quarterbacks, two dynamic running backs (one being Carolina rookie Christian McCaffery) and teams with defenses built to stop both. All eyes will once again be on Carolina quarterback Cam Newton’s continued recovery from off-season shoulder surgery.

The Buffalo Bills sacked Cam Newton six times and held the Panthers to 2.8 yards per carry on 28 carries, but the three field goals they gave up were too much for Tyrod Taylor and the Bills hapless offense. The Carolina defense played a great game as well, sacking Taylor three times, twice by Julius Peppers, and forcing two fumbles, but the Bills were shut out through three quarters and only managed three points by games end. The real story was the loss of tight end Greg Olsen to a broken foot, a brief injury scare with Cam Newton, and rookie sensation Christian McCaffery gaining only 44 yards on 12 touches, including only 10 rushing yards on eight carries, although Cam Newton sailed a wide-open touchdown to him.

Arizona Cardinals 0-1 (-7) @ Indianapolis Colts 0-1 (44): Cardinals 28-20 Cardinals 16-13

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Luca Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons:   It’s not looking good for Indianapolis in the short- or long-term. Andrew Luck appears still weeks away at least, and in the meantime, the Colts are still dealing with backup Scott Tolzien and a cast of players that really only seem good when Luck is making it look that way. It gets a lot worse when you consider key pieces will be missing for the Colts defense Week 2 (S Vontea Davis; CB Darius Butler). Lucky for Indianapolis, the Cardinals star running back David Johnson is lost for the season, and Chris Johnson, recently signed off the street, is not the same Johnson. The quarterback play looks to be awful again Sunday for these two teams, so they’ll both roll out star running backs from the aughts in Johnson and Frank Gore. Look for the Arizona defense to feast in this game, and they’ll have to, because their offense is terrible.

It took a flurry of 10 points in the 4^th quarter just to tie the game and an OT field goal for one of the best defenses in the NFL to beat one of the worst teams in the NFL Sunday, who was also starting Jacoby Brissett. The Colts led 13-3 11:42 into the 4^th quarter, even though they only gained 266 total yards on offense, before a 45-yard pass Carson Palmer to JJ Wilson brought the Cardinals within three, before eventually kicking a field goal with over three minutes left to tied the game. Brissett threw an interception in OT, setting up the Cardinals to kick the winning field goal. Chris Johnson looked OK in relief of David Johnson, but Carson Palmer has never looked worse throwing for 332 yards.

 Quarterback Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans will be looking to rebound after a tough outing versus the Oakland Raiders opening week.

Tennessee Titans 0-1 (-1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-0 (42.5): Titans 24-21 Titans 37-16

Sunday, 1:00 PM, EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Chance storms; low 80s)

Reasons:   The Jaguars beat up on a defeated city with serious quarterback issues Week 1, which ranged from “not serviceable” to “has never played in the NFL”. The Titans lost a tough battle to an Oakland Raiders team playing for a Super Bowl title this season. It doesn’t get much easier for Tennessee Sunday because Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette looks to be for real, and the Titans are already running thin on defense, with three defensive backs out or questionable. The same could be said about Jacksonville’s offense, but their attrition comes in the air and Blake Bortles can’t throw anyway. As long as the Jaguars have their star rookie running back and a beat up Titans defense to face they should be OK; they won’t be.

The Titans put on a clinic in the second half of this game, scoring 31 of their 37 points in the 3^rd and 4^th quarters, and scored 30 unanswered points after the Jaguars went up 3-0 early. Jacksonville’s offense struggled mightily again, turning the ball over three times, two coming on interceptions from embattled Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles, despite Tennessee’s secondary attrition issues. Top draft pick Leonard Fournette, who claimed the NFL was “easy, gained only 40 yards on 14 carries, while Tennessee’s second year running back Derrick Henry, who also had 14 carries, went for 92 yards. Both scored touchdowns. Tennessee was clearly the more physical team, as evidenced by Tennessee’s 179 rushing yards to Jacksonville’s 99, but it was turnovers and Blake Bortles play that did the Jaguars in again.

Philadelphia Eagles 1-0 (+5.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 1-0 (47): Chiefs 27-24 Chiefs 27-20

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, KS (Weather: Chance storms; low 80s)

Reasons: Las Vegas and bettors alike have piled on to the Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 4^th quarter success over the New England Patriots, because why else would they be nearly 6-point favorites over Philadelphia after the Eagles dismantled Washington this past Sunday? Both quarterbacks put on a clinic Week 1, but Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz won’t be facing the Washington defense this week. The Chiefs are undoubtedly one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they’re going to miss safety Eric Berry immensely. Kansas City could also be without other key members on defense (Parker, Pierre-Lewis, Ragland), meaning the Eagles should be able to move the ball on Kansas City, but probably not enough to keep up with the skilled Chiefs. Look for Tyreek Hill and rookie Kareem Hunt (rookie record for yards from scrimmage Week 1) to continue to help Alex Smith fend off rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes Week 2.

Rookie sensation Kareem Hunt stole the show again Sunday after again getting off to another slow start. Hunt had nine yards on six carries before breaking out a 53-yards run for a touchdown late in the 3^rd quarter to take a 13-10 lead back from Philadelphia. Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz played well (333 passing yards; 2 TDs; 1 INT) but Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith came back to Earth with his efficient, underwhelming self (21-28 for 251 passing yards; 1 TD) in one of the better games on the Sunday afternoon slate. Kansas City won handily, however, as they led 27-13 late in the 4^th quarter on Hunt’s second touchdown before Philadelphia made it a 27-20 game as the 4^th quarter expired. The Eagles outgained the Chiefs 406 to 344 and had 11 more first downs (27 to 16), but two Eagles turnovers and the Chiefs running game, from Hunt to Travis Kelce, decided the game.

New England Patriots 0-1 (-6.5) @ New Orleans Saints 0-1 (56): Patriots 31-27 Patriots 36-20

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The Patriots looked as if to be on their way to demoralizing the Kansas City Chiefs to open the 2017 NFL season last Thursday, but then the 4^th quarter happened and New England was facing 0-1 with many questions heading into this matchup against the Saints. The Saints are facing their own issues, as they were embarrassed in Minneapolis Monday, both on the field, and off of it with Adrian Peterson making a “private” spat about his displeasure over playing time public. These teams combined to give up 1,028 yards of offense Week 1, 553 of those yards by New England, which was a New England record under Bill Belichick. The offenses also combined for 742 yards, so we should expect another barn burner especially as the Patriots are already dealing with several issues on their defense and the Saints defense is just awful. New Orleans is missing two of the offensive tackles, however, so the playing field remains relatively even. Both teams are well coached with great starting quarterbacks, but New England just doesn’t lose two games in a row in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era.

Last Thursday night Tom Brady broke a personal record. For the first time in 109 games Brady lost a game at home going into the 4^th quarter with a lead. The media had Brady finished. The Hall Of Fame was already constructing his bust. Brady’s haters were pouring champagne. Brady broke another personal record Sunday when he threw for three TDs in the first quarter. Brady finished with 447 yards and three TDs on 77% passing and silenced the critics for another week. The Saints, although usually dangerous at home, were coming off a short week and still have a historically bad defense, which showed. Drew Brees was his normal stellar self (27-45 passing for 356 yards and two TDs), and Mark Ingram gained 56 yards on only eight carries, although half came on a late meaningless carry, but the rest of the Saints were JAGs, including the quickly fading Adrian Peterson. The Patriots won big, but it didn’t come without losses. New England suffered injuries to Rex Burkhead, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett and Rob Gronkowsi, who was just beginning to look like the Gronk people are used to. Reports of Brady and Gronkowski’s demise may have been premature, but all eyes will be on the Patriots attrition, especially at wide receiver, going forward.

Minnesota Vikings 1-0 (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1-0 (44.5): Steelers 24-21 Steelers 26-9

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Mostly sunny; low 80s)

Reasons: The Vikings looked great Monday night. The Steelers, on the other hand, looked awful. Loaded with talent on offense, the Steelers managed only 14 points against the hapless Browns Week 1, and super star running back Le’Veon Bell looked terrible. The Steelers vaunted offense gained only 19 more yards (298) then their defense gave up (279). The Vikings probably couldn’t have looked better with quarterback Sam Bradford throwing for 346 yards and three TDs on 27-32 passing and rookie running back Dalvin Cook rushing for 127 yards, a Vikings record for debut rushing yards (with Adrian Peterson watching). Both teams are dealing with nagging injuries already, but the Vikings seem to have the most concerning ones with Bradford, linebacker Anthony Barr and safety Xavier Rhodes all questionable for Sunday’s game.

The Steelers got a break, we assume, by the pre-game yanking of Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford, who is now facing knee issues. I think we may have forgotten how injury-prone this guy is, which is unfortunate considering he’s finally living up to his Heisman Trophy hype. The offense looked lost without him with backup Case Keenum managing only 167 passing yards. The lone bright spot may have been Dalvin Cook’s impressive running (64 yards on 12 carries), but he needs the ball more to have serious impact. The Steelers didn’t light it up either, but they played well enough to win. Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell were pedestrian, but the Pittsburgh defense continues to improve and get back to their Steel Curtain persona with two sacks, 5.5 tackles for loss, six passes defended and seven quarterback hits, although, again, it was a team led by Case Keenum.

 

  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and quarterback Jameis Winston play for the first time in 2017 after losing Week 1 to Hurricane Irma.

Chicago Bears 0-1 (+7) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-0 (43): Buccaneers 21-20 Buccaneers 26-9

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Chance storms; low 80s)

Reasons: The Buccaneers will be opening their 2017 season at home versus the Bears Sunday after having their season delayed by Hurricane Irma, which was forecasted to wipe Tampa Bay off the map, so this game is a symbol of a lot of things, some greater than football. The Bears fought their own storm Sunday in the form of a bitter Super Bowl loser, and they almost came out with a win. The Bears are poised to be bad this season, but they almost beat the defending NFC-champion Atlanta Falcons Week 1, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off the most turbulent, no pun intended, few weeks most of them have probably experienced in their lifetimes (see Houston, Week 1). The Buccaneers should win their first game of 2017, but it won’t be by seven or more points.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers came out firing Sunday in their first game of the 2017 season, having scored enough points by the end of the first quarter to win the game. Quarterback Jameis Winston looked good, although he didn’t pad the stat sheet (18-30 passing for 204 yards; 1 touchdown), as did Jacquizz Rodgers in replacement of the suspended Doug Martin (67 yards on 19 carries; 1 touchdown). The story for the game was the Buccaneers defense, which held the Bears to 310 totals yards, including only 20 yards rushing on 16 carries (1.3 ypc), and returned a Mike Glennon pass for a touchdown late in the second quarter. Mike Glennon actually played well (31-45 passing for 301 yards; 1 touchdown), but his two INTs were key. The rest of the Chicago Bears didn’t play any better.

Miami Dolphins 0-0 (+3.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers 0-1 (45.5): Chargers 21-17 Dolphins 19-17

Sunday, 4:05 PM, StubHub Center, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)

Reasons: The poor Miami Dolphins began their trek around the world Sunday, their first stop being in beautiful Carson, CA to play the Chargers. Los Angeles looked dead Week 1 against the Broncos until 8:10 in the 4^th quarter, when the defense and Phillip Rivers combined to bring the Chargers within an iced, and subsequently blocked field goal off the foot of rookie kicker Younhoe Koo’s foot. The Dolphins…have not played yet because of Hurricane Irma. It probably won’t be pretty for Miami, whose terrible 2017 season began when they lost franchise quarterback Ryan Tannehill over the summer. All of this makes me wonder how the Chargers are really technically only half-point favorites at home, but Los Angeles’ first three quarters against Denver could provide clues.

This game sounded like it was being played in Miami, Florida, but that was just Dolphins fans out-cheering Chargers fans at a soccer stadium in Carson, CA two hours away from their real home in San Diego. This game featured 704 yards on offense and 561 of those yards came in the air from the two quarterbacks. Phillip Rivers went 31-39 for 331 passing yards and a touchdown, but got no help from anyone else besides Keenan Allen (9 receptions; 100 receiving yards), save one rushing touchdown from Melvin Gordon (9 carries for 13 yards). The Dolphins offense looked great in their opening game, with replacement quarterback Jay Cutler throwing for 230 yards and a touchdown and running back Jay Ajayi rushing for 122 yards on 28 carries. Ultimately the game belonged to the two defenses, which played exceptionally well, with both teams combining for 18.5 tackles for loss (12 by LAC). The game once again came down to kicker Younhoe Koo’s rookie foot, and for the second straight week the rookie “failed”.  Perhaps the highlight of the game was Phillip Rivers being picked up by the on-field microphoness trying to trick the Dolphins defense with a sneak that never materialized.

New York Jets 0-1 (+14) @ Oakland Raiders 1-0 (43.5): Raiders 30-17 Raiders 45-20

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)

Reasons: I almost refuse to acknowledge the New York Jets, which isn’t difficult considering they practically don’t acknowledge themselves. In a way I can’t blame New York having seen Sam Darnold play football at USC, but then I can blame them because counting on a sophomore from USC having the time of his life to leave school early to join one of the worst teams in NFL history is exactly the kind of thinking that creates one of the worst franchises in the NFL. The Raiders are trending in the opposite direction, with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, a star quarterback, exceptional skill players, a solid veteran running back and a defensive stud (Khalil Mack) that is just skilled enough to take on the entire Jets offense by himself.

As expected this game was all Oakland. The Raiders ran for three TDs, from three different running backs, or from the running back position anyway, and gained 180 yards on 6.7 yards per carry. Derek Carr was 23-28 passing and threw three TDs to Michael Crabtree. The Raiders defense held New York to 271 total yards, forced two fumbles, sacked Josh McCown four times and had 7.5 tackles for loss in what became a total domination of the Jets. Josh McCown did throw two TD passes, both to Jermaine Kearse, but that was the extent of New York’s success. The Raiders are as loose as Marshawn Lynch was dancing on the sidelines Sunday and should be a dangerous opponent for anyone going forward.

Dallas Cowboys 1-0 (-2.5) @ Denver Broncos 1-0 (43): Cowboys 28-27 Broncos 42-17

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Mostly sunny; high 70s)

Reasons: The Broncos had to ice a rookie kicker and then block his second attempt to fend off a charging Los Angeles Chargers team they had dominated for three and a half quarters. The Cowboys, on the other hand, dominated the short-handed Giants from start to finish. The paths to the same outcome were vastly different for the two teams, which is interesting considering both teams gained about the same amount of yards (DAL: 397; DEN: 359) while giving up the same amount of yards (DAL: 255; DEN: 256). Both teams are dealing with significant injuries on defense, but only the Cowboys could be missing a key piece on offense (WR Terrance Williams). The Cowboys grind out a win on the road in the high altitude in one of the better Week 2 games.

I never fail to account for the weather or fundamental anomalies in a playing environment, like the noise at Kansas City or the altitude at Denver. The problem I often make is not accounting enough for one or both. Weather wasn’t supposed to be an issue, but these storms come off the Rocky Mountains and can be largely unpredictable. The altitude never changes and it has a serious effect on players, especially those coming from 600 feet elevation. The weather delay and altitude conspired to defeat the Dallas Cowboys Sunday night in what was otherwise supposed to be the showdown of the afternoon. It was more of a shutdown of the Cowboys offensive line by the Broncos defensive front four, which stagnated the running game and put the game squarely upon the shoulders of Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant, which failed because Denver’s secondary might be the best in the NFL Aqib Talib was too much Dez Bryant and his 16 targets. Trevor Siemian looked good, throwing four TDs passes (Emmaneul Sanders 2, CJ Anderson, Virgil Green), and CJ Anderson looked great, rushing for 118 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. Don’t be fooled though, this game belonged to the Broncos defense.

 The Dallas Cowboys and their two star second-year players will be looking to continue their early season success on the road against the Denver Broncos.

Washington Football Team 0-1 (+2.5) @ Los Angeles Rams 1-0 (45.5): Rams 27-24 Washington 27-20

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)

Reasons: The Rams are not nearly as good as their 46-9 Week 1 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, but even if you take away the two pick-sixes, the Rams still scored a respectable 32 points, good enough to lead the NFL in 2016. We must take this win and these points with a grain of salt, however, as the Colts looked like the league’s worst team Sunday. Washington is exactly what we assumed they’d be - mediocre with flashes of Kirk Cousins brilliance mixed in with head-scratching moments. Los Angeles should continue their success Sunday, but because Washington is as awful as their owner's sensitivities, not because I believe in any early-season hype. This just happens to be another game in which this young, relatively inexperienced Rams team plays an equally terrible opponent, as evidenced by Washington getting less than three points on the road.

Washington led 13-0 early before the two teams starting trading ground game punches. Todd Gurley looked great, although he did fumble, accounting for 136 total yards and two TDs. This game was more about the Washington ground game, which coincidentally lost its top guy in Rob Kelley to injury, but gained 229 yards on a bruising 39 carries (6.5 ypc) over 36 minutes. Neither quarterback had a serious impact on the game besides Jared Goff throwing a late INT to seal the game for Washington.

San Francisco 49ers 0-1 (+14)@ Seattle Seahawks 0-1 (41.5): Seahawks 24-13 Seahawks 12-9

Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Chance rain; low 70s)

Reasons: I give the 49ers no chance to win this game, but I have a hard time giving any team a chance giving 14 points. The 49ers will also be with out their best player, arguably, in rookie linebacker Rueben Foster. The Seahawks looked pedestrian on offense last week against the Green Bay Packers, but their defense looked great, despite giving up 395 yards. If not for terrible officiating, Seattle might’ve won the game on the road in Green Bay. The 49ers only defensive bright spot is out for the game and their offense has no chance against this Seattle defense.

This game looked like the NFC Championship battles of the Colin Kaepernick days, when the 49ers and Seahawks not only had the two best defenses in the NFL at the time, but arguably of all time. Seattle still possesses such a defense, on display Sunday, but San Francisco, despite missing their best young player on defense (Rueben Foster), held their own. Before we get too excited it should be noted that the 49ers might end up with one of the worst offenses in the league by years end, but the Seahawks aren’t much better, despite the optical illusions known as Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham. Seattle looked awful Sunday and the league’s worst offensive line had Wilson running for his life. The 49ers held a 9-6 lead with under four minutes to go in the game, based largely on Carlos Hyde’s 124 rushing yards before Wilson – running for his life – evaded multiple sacks to find Paul Richardson for the go-ahead touchdown with seven minutes remaining. The Seahawks missed the extra point, which meant the 49ers only need a field goal to tie the game, but the Seahawks defense shut them down to seal the victory.

Green Bay Packers 1-0 (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons 1-0 (56): Packers 30-28 Falcons 34-23

Sunday, 8:25 PM, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: A rematch of the 2016 NFC Championship game, the results should be much different this time around, as well as in 14 weeks when the Packers are playing the game in Seattle and the Falcons are at home watching. I’m getting ahead of myself. The Packers should’ve lost last week to the Seattle Seahawks (See Tuesday’s Gone: Week 1 #NFL Game Prediction Reviews) and the Falcons almost did lose to the Chicago Bears. Green Bay played well on defense versus the Seahawks (287 yards against), but the Falcons are no Seahawks, in Nature or the NFL. The Falcons are also no good at stopping people, and the Packers are the closest thing offensively to Atlanta in the league, which is a far cry from the Chicago Bears. Expect a shoot-out in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but expect the Packers to be on the winning side of it.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback, and 2016 MVP, Matt Ryan, maybe the most overlooked player in the NFL, threw for 252 yards (19-28 passing; 1 touchdown) and continued his streak of consecutive games with at least 200 yards passing (56). Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who had a much better night on paper (33-50 passing for 354 yards; 2 TDs; 1 INT), was under duress most of the night; his only two turnovers (fumble and interception) led to 14 points and was the difference in the game. The Falcons were balanced on offense and their defense played great, hitting Rodgers seven times, sacking him three times and forcing the two key turnovers. The Falcons are another team at home on their turf and it showed Sunday night against the Packers.

Detroit Lions 1-0 (+3) @ New York Giants 0-1 (42.5): Giants 23-21 Lions 24-10

Monday, 8:30 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Mostly sunny; high 70s)

Reasons: The Giants were absolutely lost on offense without Odell Beckham Jr. and if he isn’t back to at least 75% on Monday night the Giants will be lost again versus the Lions. New York’s defense gave up 397 yards Sunday, but to a multi-dimensional offense, not one mostly predicated on their passing game, which could be without one of their key offensive pieces themselves (Golden Tate). If Odell Beckham Jr. is healthy enough to play Detroit will be facing a similar team in the Giants as they saw in Arizona, except this game is on the road and there is no equal to Odell Beckham Jr., even at 75%. The Giants inch back towards form Monday night, as do the Lions.

The Giants struggled from the start Monday night, most notably the offensive line, which might have become the leagues worst (Seattle) after Monday’s display. The game starts in the trenches, so talk of Eli Manning or Odell Beckham Jr.’s play is meanlingless if the line can’t protect their quarterback. Neither Manning nor Beckham were factors in the game, and Eli was under so much duress he even went down on a phantom tackle, a la Brett Favre for Mike Straham (which gave Strahan a contested season sacks record). The other quarterback, Matt Stafford, didn’t light it up, throwing for only 122 passing yards, but he threw two TDs (Marvin Jones Jr.; Eric Ebron) and showed glimpses of Aaron Rodgers, scrambling for several large gains throughout the game (23 rushing yards). The Lions defense played well (5 sacks; 8 tackles for loss), but how well do you to play to beat the Giants right now? New York only gave up 17 points (Detroit blocked and returned a punt for a touchdown), and sacked Stafford three times, but it won’t matter how well New York plays going forward it the Giants can’t score points. Monday night was the eighth straight game New York has scored fewer than 20 points; the Giants record is 1978-79 17 games without scoring at least 20 points. Ben MacAdoo also became the first coach in Giants history to start a season 0-2 losing by 14+ points each game. All is not well in Gotham.

Stay tuned for Week 3: #NFL Games and Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday and Sunday! 

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Tuesday's Gone: Week 1 Game Prediction Reviews

 

The New England Patriots raise banner number five at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA Thursday night as they kick off the 2017 NFL season on Thursday Night Football versus the Kansas City Chiefs.

2017 NFL SEASON

Week 1: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
(Week 1 results: 10-5 W/L; 5-10 v. spread)

Kansas City Chiefs (+9) @ New England Patriots (48.5): Patriots 30-20 Chiefs 42-20

Thursday, 8:30 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Clear, low 60s)

Reasons:  The Patriots started 2017 winning their 5th title by way of the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history, and continued the year with arguably the greatest off season any NFL team has enjoyed, let alone a returning champion. The Kansas City Chiefs are no slouches themselves, but losing Spencer Ware could hurt considerably, especially with a (suddenly hyped) rookie Kareem Hunt in the wake. The Patriots suffered their own devastating injury to leading receiver Julian Edleman, but have enough to weapons returning and from their bountiful off-season to weather any storms. The name of this game will be the same old story - a still formidable Chiefs defense trying with all their might to rush the ageless Tom Brady and fend off the perennially best offense in the NFL at home on banner night. 

The Patriots were a very bad defensive pass interference call against Malcolm Butler and a broken coverage touchdown to Tyreek Hill from… losing 28-27. New England entered the 3^rd quarter leading 27-21 before letting the Chiefs run all over them in the 3^rd quarter for three rushing TDs, two by rookie Kareem Hunt, who coincidentally fumbled his first carry ever in the NFL after never having fumbled once in four years at Toledo (800+ carries). Hunt stole the show, breaking the rookie record for total yards from scrimmage (246). Danny Amendola’s concussion stifled the Patriots offense and linebacker Dont’a Hightower’s injury put New England's defense in shambles, as evidenced by the 3^rd quarter. Tom Brady looked awful, losing the first game he had led at home going into the 4th quarter in over 100 such situations, and oft-injured Rob Gronkowski looked old and slow. The only New England highlight was wide receiver Brandin Cooks, who was mauled the entire night. The New England low-light was the awkward pregame ceremony, which was a disgrace, and likely fired up the Chiefs.

New York Jets (+9.5) @ Buffalo Bills (40): Bills 20-13 Bills 21-12

Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Field, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Clear, low 60s)

Reasons: What a terrible game. The Bills will start quarterback Tyrod Taylor after a concussion scare, otherwise the Bills would've started rookie Nathan Peterson, actually giving New York a chance. The Jets want no part of any wins this season. Buffalo wins one of the ugliest games of the 2017 season Week 1 and will be in first place in the AFC East for at least a week.

This game lived up to the hype as one of the worst games of Week 1. The Jets offense was anemic and the Bills offense wasn’t as so anemic with LeSean McCoy rushing for 110 yards on 22 carries and Tyrod Taylor throwing two TDs on 28 passing attempts (Tolbert; Clay).

Atlanta Falcons (-7) @ Chicago Bears (49): Falcons 30-17 Falcons 23-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Clear, low 60s)

Reasons: The Falcons are probably dying to get back on the field after the most embarrassing Super Bowl defeat in history, and what better team to beat up on than the hapless Bears. Chicago will gain some ground yards, but the Falcons should be able to get to Mike Glennon, who doesn't have many weapons anyway. Matt Ryan should be able to pick apart the Bears if he stays away from Quintin Demps. Expect the Falcons to roll on the road.

Mike Glennon was sacked four times and hit ten total times, but Jordan Howard and Co. rushed for 119 yards on 22 carries (6.6 ypc), keeping the Bears in the game. 2016 MVP Matt Ryan got off to a slow start but threw for over 300 yards and a TD. The Bears had their chances late, which mean the Falcons might have more of a Super Bowel LI hangover than they thought.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (48.5): Bengals 24-21 Ravens 20-0

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Clear, 60s)

Reasons: The Bengals begin 2017 with their star linebacker Vontaze Burfict suspended for being a dirty player and their most promising player on offense a rookie known best for his issues punching women in college. 2017 promises to be like every other year for the Bengals. That means they win a bunch of games, but have the character of a rabid dog, so no one expects anything of substance from them. Fortunately for Cincinnati the Ravens roll into town with a hobbled Joe Flacco and no real weapons at wide out for the first time in several years. This is one of the few games worth watching in the early afternoon, and could turn into a defensive battle.

Baltimore returned to their 2016 form to begin 2017 by forcing five turnovers, including four INTs by Andy Dalton, shutting out the Bengals 20-0. The Ravens offense didn’t look much better, with Joe Flacco only completing 7 of 19 passes, including a TD and an INT. Terrance West provided the other touchdown and lone offensive bright spot for Baltimore, rushing for 80 yards on 19 carries. The Ravens will rely on their defense a lot this season just as they did Sunday.

The Cleveland Browns still suck.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+8.5) @ Cleveland Browns (47): Steelers 28-17 Steelers 21-18

Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Clear, 60s)

Reasons: The Steelers barely have to travel far to make short work of the worst team in the NFL Week 1, as their improving defense takes on rookie DeShone Kizer, Cleveland's 26th starting quarterback since the Browns became a football team again in 1999. Consider: 26 quarterbacks in 18 years. By comparison, Pittsburgh has had six starting quarterbacks in the same time frame, and that's if you count Charlie Batch as a starter throughout Roethlisberger's myriad injuries. Three of those quarterbacks also started during the Age of Kordell Stewart Denial. I could keep picking, but I digress.

The Steelers began the game blocking a punt and taking it to the house fewer then three minutes into the game, but things got hairy from the there. The Browns outscored the Steelers 18-14 the last 57 minutes of the game. DeShone Kizer looked great in his rookie debut, including the touchdown pass late in the 4^th quarter to bring Cleveland within three points, but in the end, the Browns Browned and the blocked punt ended up being the difference in the game.

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) @ Detroit Lions (48): Cardinals 24-21 Lions 35-23

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: One of the few great games of the early afternoon on paper, the Cardinals make the dreaded "cross-country" trip for the early game, and Detroit is just talented enough for that to make some difference. Fortunately for the Cardinals it's only Week 1. The Cardinals will be on the road with limited weapons and an aging quarterback against a solid defense, while the Lions are facing one of the best defenses in the league, especially against the pass, Detroit's one advantage otherwise. This game could turn into a defensive battle.

Matthew Stafford signed a $135 million contract extension late in the off-season and then immediately threw a pick-six in his first series of the 2017 season. Stafford more than made up for the early mistake by throwing four TDs. The Cardinals looked absolutely awful on offense, from Carson Palmer being sacked five times and throwing three INTs to David Johnson’s 23 yards on 11 carries capped off by a serious wrist injury. Early reports suggest Johnson could miss up to 6-8 weeks. Arizona came into the game and the season with the more highly touted defense, but it was the Lions defense that made noise Sunday. Arizona’s problems at quarterback could mount quickly.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+5) @ Houston Texans (40): Texans 21-17 Jaguars 29-7

Sunday, 1:00 PM, NGR Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: It's the moment we've all been waiting for: Leonard Fournette's debut. Let's see how easy the game really is for the former LSU star once he faces a dominant Texans defense, anchored by a healthy JJ Watt and the backing of the spirit of millions of Houstonians. Texans fans have been through hell, but are inching back towards normal, in part due to the $30+ million raised by Watt. What better way to start the NFL season then at home against the Jaguars! Jacksonville isn't a total joke, but their quarterback is, and the Texans front seven isn't. It's possible the stress of Hurricane Harvey lingers, but even if that's the case it's probably not enough to lose to Blake Bortles. Leonard Fournette will learn a valuable lesson Week 1, even if just in the context of difficulty.

I had a feeling the Texans would lay an egg two short weeks removed from the worst natural disaster in Houston’s history. Even local hero JJ Watt couldn’t have expected to snap right back into the football frame of mind after just having helped raise over $30 million up to, through, and beyond the game. Blake Bortles played terrible as expected and rookie Leonard Fournette merely lived up to some of the hype rushing for 100 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries. This means the Jaguars defense actually lived up to the small amount of hype they’ve received from local fans and a few football pundits, sacking the Texans quarterbacks ten times, four by off-season acquisition Calais Campbell, forced and recovered three fumbles and intercepted Tom Savage once. Notice I said “quarterbacks”? That’s because the Jaguars chased Tom Savage right out of the game.

The league's most insufferable defensive superstar has become a national hero after raising more than $25 million for the Houston area after Hurricane Harvey 

Oakland Raiders (+2.5) @ Tennessee Titans (50.5): Titans 27-24 Raider 26-16

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Clear, low 60s)

Reasons: Two future faces of the NFL play each other Week 1 Sunday as Derek Carr faces Marcus Mariota, but for me it's more about a guy whose face we haven't seen in a year, Marshawn Lynch. Beast Mode returns to the gridiron after a year of retirement, but before you ask the most misunderstood man in the league why, just appreciate his presence. He'll be needed Sunday because the Titans secondary will keep Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree grounded, especially after signing John Cyprien and drafting Adoree Jackson. This Titans squad runs with plenty of clout themselves, so expect a physical game and a tough first test for both teams.

The Titans clearly have some ground to gain if they’re going to compete with the elite teams of the AFC, as evidenced Sunday v. the Raiders. A relatively clean game, neither turned the ball over and both team committed only five penalties for exactly 49 yards. Marshawn Lynch picked up right where he left off, looking lean and mean, rushing for 76 yards on 18 carries; Derek Carr returned to pre-injury form, throwing for 262 yards and two TDs.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1) @ Washington Football Team (47.5): Eagles 24-21 Eagles 30-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Clear, low 60s)

Reasons: It's funny, the WFC runs a three wide receiver set yet they barely have two threats at wide receiver. Washington signed Terrelle Pryor to a one-year contract, but after letting Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson go, the WTC will rely heavily upon him and a hobbled Jamison Crowder to overcome a weak running game. Speaking of hobbled, the WTC will need Jordan Reed's availability to match his ability if they're going to beat the Eagles Week 1. Philadelphia and second-year quarterback Carson Wentz have a few new toys on offensive (LeGarrette Blount; Alshon Jeffery) and the Eagles defense is stout enough to snatch the chip off Kirk Cousins shoulder and eat it.

If the NFL weren’t loaded with laughable quarterbacks from the first week Kirk Cousins could have been the Monday morning joke, even if he did lead Washington in rushing. (That was a joke). That’s how bad it got for the WFC, but it’s not as if the Eagles soared. A late fumble by Cousins and returned by Fletcher Cox made an otherwise 22-17 game with the WFC driving down the field into a 30-17 Eagles victory. Still, the Eagles defense looked good, sacking Cousins four times while forcing three fumbles and an interception, but also suffered a serious blow losing cornerback Ronald Darby to an ugly ankle injury.

Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (41.5): Rams 20-17 Rams 46-9

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Weather: Stormy, 70s)

Reasons: If it weren't for the Bills/Jets game this would be the worst game of Week 1. The Rams are a talented young team without much experience and the Colts are like a ship without its captain. Hopefully a bunch of celebrities show up to the game and the broadcasters divide their time equally between pointing them out and speculating on Andrew Luck's return.

The Rams returned two of Scott Tolzien’s passes for TDs, dropped him for a safety, and sacked him four times as the Colts learned just how terrible they are without Andrew Luck. The Rams offense didn’t really inspire much against the Colts, either, but their defense sure did. Actually, maybe not, considering how terrible the Colts are. This was a great confidence booster for the young Rams, and it just may continue with games versus Washington and San Francisco the next two weeks before they quickly return to Earth to face the Cowboys and Seahawks to begin October. 

 The city that cared marginally about the one team it had off-and-on for years now has two other NFL teams to not care at all about.

Seattle Seahawks (+3) @ Green Bay Packers (51): Packers 24-23 Packers 17-9

Sunday, 4:20 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Clear, high 50s)

Reasons: We're getting a potential preview of the NFC Championship game in Week 1 as the league's best quarterback takes on the league's best defense. Jordy Nelson is healthy and Davante Adams seems to have figured it out, meaning Aaron Rodgers will have all three of his wide outs (Randall Cobb) healthy and primed, with recently signed tight end Marcellus Bennett waiting in the flat. The problem is, Bennett's twin brother Michael is on the other side of the ball, hunting down one Aaron Rodgers, and he just got some more help in Sheldon Richardson. Huh?! As if this Seahawks unit needed more help on a defensive unit stacked with All-Pros! With Russell Wilson healthy the sky is the limit, although they get one of their toughest tests of the season right out of the gate.

According to the box score Packers fans have much to be excited about, but if you watched the game you know three things: Cliff Avril did not block Aaron Rodgers in the back, which nullified a Seahawks pick-six, Bobby Lane did not throw a punch, which led to Lane’s ejection, and Jimmy Graham was interfered with, which took another four points off of the Seahawks board. In other words, the Packers really won 17-13 if you don’t count the Wagner nonsense, but do count the Graham nonsense, or the Packers tied the Seahawks 17-17 if you count both examples of nonsense. I’ll take it one further: If Aaron Rodgers doesn’t pull a Peyton Manning and catch the Seahawks with 12 men on the field as the scrambled to get their defense set and throw a surprise TD to Jordy Nelson, the Packers really won 10-9, and that’s without considering any of the aforementioned nonsense. In other words, the Packers didn’t even really win the game. Add that to the fact the Seahawks defense was on the field for 40 minutes and still held the Packers to 17 bush league points.

Carolina Panthers (-5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (48): Panthers 27-17 Panthers 23-3

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Levis Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Clear low 70s)

Reasons: The Panthers are traveling across the entire country and they're still nearly 6-point favorites. That should tell you how terrible the 49ers are. Carolina's defense isn't what it was a few years ago, but it will still manage to stifle this weak 49ers offense. The real intrigue will be health of Cam Newton's surgically repaired shoulder.

The Panthers defense sacked Brian Hoyer four times and forced him to fumble and throw an interception in this dominant win over the 49ers. Carolina’s offense didn’t blow anyone away, and hyped rookie running back Christian McCaffery fumbled away one of his 13 debut carries, but the Panthers scored enough to set the stage for their defense to thrive. Carolina won’t play the 49ers every week, but Cam Newton’s shoulder should improve, and with it perhaps some accuracy.  

New York Giants (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys (48): Cowboys 31-28 Cowboys 19-3

Sunday, 8:30 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: Only the fireworks off the field could match the fireworks on the field during the Sunday Night Game of Week. The Ezekiel Elliot situation has everyone anxious and confused (spare me the legal justifications) and the Giants most electric player, for better and worse, is doubtful to even play. Whether Odell Beckham Jr. plays or not the game will be plenty entertaining, highlighted by the Dez Bryant/Janoris Jenkins match up. Will Dak Prescott hit the sophomore slump? Will the off-the-field-distractions overwhelm Dallas? Will OBJ create major distractions without even stepping foot onto the field? Will Jerry Jones announce his lawsuit against the NFL at halftime via descending midfield microphone as if he's announcing a boxing match? This game has it all.

Who knew the Giants offense relied on Odell Beckham Jr. this much? Apparently not the Giants as coach Bob MacAdoo emphatically stated that New York’s offense would be just fine without him. Maybe he was serious and “fine” to him meant one INT from the most overrated quarterback in NFL history or 16 rushing yards on seven carries from Paul Perkins. The Giants looked so bad Sunday Beckham could literally hold New York contract hostages and the Giants would have to meet every demand, up to and including footing the bill for the kicking net’s dress. The Cowboys, on the other hand, looked great against this stout New York defense, which only managed to knock Dak Prescott down three times. It must’ve infuriated Giants fans that Odell Beckham Jr. sat on the bench injured via cheap preseason hit while the Cowboys running back, who was supposed to be suspended, danced and smashed for over 100 rushing yards. The Cowboys defense looked great, too, albeit against the hapless Giants offense, sacking Manning three times and forcing an interception. Dallas may have ended up with the steal of the 2017 draft, too, as second year linebacker Jaylon Smith (7 total tackles) brought young energy to the team after returning from a gruesome knee injury two years ago.

For the second consecutive season the NFL botched an investigation resulting in the lengthy suspension of a superstar to start the season...or maybe not.

New Orleans Saints (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (48): Vikings 24-21 Vikings 29-19

Monday, 7:10 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Cloudy, low 60s)

Reasons: Adrian Peterson steps onto the field at US Bank Field in Minneapolis as a Saint. That might sound normal to a Vikings fan without a TV or the internet, but to those of us who know Peterson was traded to the New Orleans Saints, the situation is weird...and awesome. You can't make this stuff up. Peterson will be looking to show the Vikings they made a huge mistake, but the second Adrian sees Dalvin Cook blow by him on the sidelines he'll understand. The days of Drew Brees breaking records are waning, but there's still enough gas in the tank to score plenty of points. That won't be easy against this Vikings defense, however, as Minnesota gave up the 6th fewest in 2016. In fact, I'd be surprised if Brees accomplishes much on Sunday.

Adrian Peterson argued with his new head coach about football philosophies while rookie running back Dalvin Cook rushed for 127 yards on 22 carries to break Peterson’s Vikings rookie rushing record in Minneapolis. It wasn’t a great homecoming for Ol’ Switch. Sam Bradford silenced critics with an amazing 27-32 (84%) passing performance for 346 yards and three TDs. Drew Brees was efficient himself, but even New Orleans 10-point 4^th quarter was matched by Minnesota, and wasn’t enough to even compete with the Vikings at home. The post-Adrian Peterson era has arrived in Minnesota and it looks like Dalvin Cook.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos (43.5): Broncos 24-21 Broncos 24-21

Monday, 10:20 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Possible storms, 60s)

Reasons: The Chargers are one talented team, but relatively young. That poses a big problem against such a formidable veteran defense, and is really the only reason Denver stands a chance. Still, youth could overcome altitude, and when Denver has resorted to resigning Brock Osweiler you know the quarterback situation in Denver is shaky at best. It takes a quarterback to win in this league, but having stellar defense doesn't hurt.

The Broncos held the Chargers to fewer than 140 total yards through the first three quarters and led 24-7 midway into the 4^th. Then the Chargers defense took over. Adrian Phillips picked off Trevor Siemian and 2:27 minutes later Phillip Rivers hit Keenan Allen in the end zone to make it a 21-14 game. The very next series Jamal Charles fumbled, the Chargers recovered, and 22 seconds later we had a 24-21 game by way of another Rivers touchdown. Denver continued to unravel, missing a 50-yard field goal, setting up Chargers rookie kicker Younghoe Koo to attempt to tie the game in his NFL debut. His initial kick attempt went right down the middle, but was iced by the Broncos head coach. Koo's next attempt was blocked and my week ended on a perfect call.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphin: Good luck, Tampa Bay and Miami. 

POSTPONED (Weather: Hurricane)

Stay tuned for Week 2: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday/Sunday! 

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