The New England Patriots raise
banner number five at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA Thursday night as they
kick off the 2017 NFL season on Thursday Night Football versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
2017 NFL SEASON
Week 1: #NFL Game Predictions (w/
spreads & analysis)
(Week 1 results: 10-5 W/L; 5-10 v. spread)
(Week 1 results: 10-5 W/L; 5-10 v. spread)
Kansas
City Chiefs (+9)
@ New England Patriots (48.5): Patriots 30-20 Chiefs 42-20
Thursday, 8:30 PM, Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, MA (Weather: Clear, low 60s)
Reasons: The
Patriots started 2017 winning their 5th title by way of the greatest comeback in
Super Bowl history, and continued the year with arguably the
greatest off season any NFL team has
enjoyed, let alone a returning champion. The Kansas City Chiefs are no slouches
themselves, but losing Spencer Ware could hurt considerably, especially with a
(suddenly hyped) rookie Kareem Hunt in the wake.
The Patriots suffered their own devastating injury to leading receiver Julian
Edleman, but have enough to weapons returning and from their bountiful
off-season to weather any storms. The name of this game will be the same old
story - a still formidable Chiefs defense trying with all their might to rush
the ageless Tom Brady and fend off the perennially best offense in the NFL at
home on banner night.
The Patriots were a very bad defensive pass
interference call against Malcolm Butler and a broken coverage touchdown to Tyreek
Hill from… losing 28-27. New England entered the 3rd quarter leading
27-21 before letting the Chiefs run all over them in the 3rd quarter
for three rushing TDs, two by rookie Kareem Hunt, who coincidentally fumbled
his first carry ever in the NFL after never having fumbled once in four years at Toledo (800+
carries). Hunt stole the show, breaking the rookie record for total yards from
scrimmage (246). Danny Amendola’s concussion stifled the Patriots offense and linebacker
Dont’a Hightower’s injury put New England's defense in shambles, as evidenced by
the 3rd quarter. Tom Brady looked awful, losing the first game he had led at home going into the 4th quarter in over 100 such situations, and oft-injured Rob Gronkowski looked
old and slow. The only New England highlight was wide receiver Brandin Cooks,
who was mauled the entire night. The New England low-light was the awkward pregame ceremony, which was a disgrace, and likely fired up the Chiefs.
New
York Jets (+9.5)
@ Buffalo Bills (40):
Bills 20-13 Bills 21-12
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Field,
Buffalo, NY (Weather: Clear, low 60s)
Reasons: What
a terrible game. The Bills will start quarterback Tyrod Taylor after a
concussion scare, otherwise the Bills would've started rookie Nathan Peterson,
actually giving New York a chance. The Jets want no part of any wins this season.
Buffalo wins one of the ugliest games of the 2017 season Week 1 and will
be in first place in the AFC East for at least a week.
This game lived up to the hype as one of the worst
games of Week 1. The Jets offense was anemic and the Bills offense wasn’t as so anemic with
LeSean McCoy rushing for 110 yards on 22 carries and Tyrod Taylor throwing two
TDs on 28 passing attempts (Tolbert; Clay).
Atlanta
Falcons (-7)
@ Chicago Bears (49):
Falcons 30-17 Falcons 23-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field,
Chicago, IL (Weather: Clear, low 60s)
Reasons: The
Falcons are probably dying to get back on the field after the most embarrassing
Super Bowl defeat in history, and what better team to beat up on than the
hapless Bears. Chicago will gain some ground yards, but the Falcons should be
able to get to Mike Glennon, who doesn't have many weapons anyway. Matt Ryan
should be able to pick apart the Bears if he stays away from Quintin Demps. Expect the Falcons to roll on the road.
Mike Glennon was sacked four times and hit ten total times,
but Jordan Howard and Co. rushed for 119 yards on 22 carries (6.6 ypc), keeping
the Bears in the game. 2016 MVP Matt Ryan got off to a slow start but threw for
over 300 yards and a TD. The Bears had their chances late, which mean the
Falcons might have more of a Super Bowel LI hangover than they thought.
Baltimore
Ravens (+3)
@ Cincinnati Bengals (48.5): Bengals 24-21 Ravens 20-0
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium,
Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Clear, 60s)
Reasons: The
Bengals begin 2017 with their star linebacker Vontaze Burfict suspended for
being a dirty player and their most promising player on offense a rookie known
best for his issues punching women in college. 2017 promises to be like every other
year for the Bengals. That means they win a bunch of games, but have the
character of a rabid dog, so no one expects anything of substance from them.
Fortunately for Cincinnati the Ravens roll into town with a hobbled Joe Flacco
and no real weapons at wide out for the first time in several years. This is
one of the few games worth watching in the early afternoon, and could turn into a defensive battle.
Baltimore returned to
their 2016 form to begin 2017 by forcing five turnovers, including four INTs by Andy
Dalton, shutting out the Bengals 20-0. The Ravens offense
didn’t look much better, with Joe Flacco only completing 7 of 19 passes, including a
TD and an INT. Terrance West provided the other touchdown and lone offensive bright spot
for Baltimore, rushing for 80 yards on 19 carries. The Ravens will rely on
their defense a lot this season just as they did Sunday.
The Cleveland Browns still suck.
Pittsburgh
Steelers (+8.5)
@ Cleveland Browns (47): Steelers 28-17 Steelers
21-18
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium,
Cleveland, OH (Weather: Clear, 60s)
Reasons: The
Steelers barely have to travel far to make short work of the worst team in the
NFL Week 1, as their improving defense takes on rookie DeShone Kizer,
Cleveland's 26th starting quarterback since the Browns became a football team
again in 1999. Consider: 26 quarterbacks in 18 years. By comparison, Pittsburgh
has had six starting quarterbacks in the same time frame, and that's if you
count Charlie Batch as a starter throughout Roethlisberger's myriad injuries. Three
of those quarterbacks also started during the Age of Kordell Stewart Denial. I
could keep picking, but I digress.
The Steelers began the game blocking a punt and
taking it to the house fewer then three minutes into the game, but things got
hairy from the there. The Browns outscored the Steelers 18-14 the last 57 minutes
of the game. DeShone Kizer
looked great in his rookie debut, including the touchdown pass late in the 4th
quarter to bring Cleveland within three points, but in the end, the Browns
Browned and the blocked punt ended up being the difference in the game.
Arizona
Cardinals (-1.5)
@ Detroit Lions (48):
Cardinals 24-21 Lions 35-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit,
MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
One of the few great games of the early afternoon on paper, the Cardinals make
the dreaded "cross-country" trip for the early game, and Detroit is
just talented enough for that to make some difference. Fortunately for the
Cardinals it's only Week 1. The
Cardinals will be on the road with limited weapons and an aging quarterback
against a solid defense, while the Lions are facing one of the best defenses in
the league, especially against the pass, Detroit's one advantage otherwise. This game could turn into a defensive battle.
Matthew Stafford signed a $135 million contract
extension late in the off-season and then immediately threw a pick-six in his first series of the 2017
season. Stafford more than made up for the early mistake by throwing four TDs. The
Cardinals looked absolutely awful on offense, from Carson Palmer being sacked
five times and throwing three INTs to David Johnson’s 23 yards on 11 carries
capped off by a serious wrist injury. Early reports suggest Johnson could miss
up to 6-8 weeks. Arizona came into the game and the season with the more highly
touted defense, but it was the Lions defense that made noise Sunday. Arizona’s
problems at quarterback could mount quickly.
Jacksonville
Jaguars (+5)
@ Houston Texans (40): Texans 21-17 Jaguars 29-7
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NGR Stadium, Houston,
TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: It's
the moment we've all been waiting for: Leonard Fournette's debut. Let's see how
easy the game really is for the
former LSU star once he faces a dominant Texans defense, anchored by a healthy
JJ Watt and the backing of the spirit of millions of Houstonians. Texans fans
have been through hell, but are inching back towards normal, in part due to the
$30+ million raised by Watt. What better way to start the NFL season then at
home against the Jaguars! Jacksonville isn't a total joke, but their
quarterback is, and the Texans front seven isn't. It's possible the stress of
Hurricane Harvey lingers, but even if that's the case it's probably not enough
to lose to Blake Bortles. Leonard Fournette will learn a valuable lesson Week
1, even if just in the context of difficulty.
I had a feeling the Texans would lay an egg
two short weeks removed from the worst natural disaster in Houston’s history. Even
local hero JJ Watt couldn’t have expected to snap right back into the football
frame of mind after just having helped raise over $30 million up to, through,
and beyond the game. Blake Bortles played terrible as expected and rookie
Leonard Fournette merely lived up to some of the hype rushing for 100 yards and
a touchdown on 26 carries. This means the Jaguars defense actually lived up to
the small amount of hype they’ve received from local fans and a few football
pundits, sacking the Texans quarterbacks ten times, four by off-season acquisition Calais Campbell, forced
and recovered three fumbles and intercepted Tom Savage once. Notice I said “quarterbacks”?
That’s because the Jaguars chased Tom Savage right out of the game.
The league's most insufferable
defensive superstar has become a national hero after raising more than $25
million for the Houston area after Hurricane Harvey
Oakland
Raiders (+2.5)
@ Tennessee Titans (50.5): Titans 27-24 Raider 26-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium,
Nashville, TN (Weather: Clear, low 60s)
Reasons: Two
future faces of the NFL play each other Week 1 Sunday as Derek Carr faces
Marcus Mariota, but for me it's more about a guy whose face we haven't seen in
a year, Marshawn Lynch. Beast Mode returns to the gridiron after a year of
retirement, but before you ask the most misunderstood man in the league why,
just appreciate his presence. He'll be needed Sunday because the Titans
secondary will keep Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree grounded, especially
after signing John Cyprien and drafting Adoree Jackson. This Titans squad
runs with plenty of clout themselves, so expect a physical game and a tough
first test for both teams.
The Titans clearly have some ground to gain if
they’re going to compete with the elite teams of the AFC, as evidenced Sunday
v. the Raiders. A relatively clean game, neither turned the ball over and both
team committed only five penalties for exactly 49 yards.
Marshawn Lynch picked up right where he left off, looking lean and mean, rushing
for 76 yards on 18 carries; Derek Carr returned to pre-injury form, throwing for 262 yards and two TDs.
Philadelphia
Eagles (-1)
@ Washington Football Team (47.5): Eagles 24-21 Eagles 30-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover,
MD (Weather: Clear, low 60s)
Reasons: It's
funny, the WFC runs a three wide receiver set yet they barely have two threats
at wide receiver. Washington signed Terrelle Pryor to a one-year contract, but
after letting Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson go, the WTC will rely heavily
upon him and a hobbled Jamison Crowder to overcome a weak running game.
Speaking of hobbled, the WTC will need Jordan Reed's availability to match his
ability if they're going to beat the Eagles Week 1. Philadelphia and second-year quarterback
Carson Wentz have a few new toys on offensive (LeGarrette Blount; Alshon Jeffery) and the Eagles defense is stout
enough to snatch the chip off Kirk Cousins shoulder and eat it.
If the NFL weren’t loaded with laughable quarterbacks
from the first week Kirk Cousins could have been the Monday morning joke, even if he did lead
Washington in rushing. (That was a joke). That’s how bad it got for the WFC, but
it’s not as if the Eagles soared. A late fumble by Cousins and returned by
Fletcher Cox made an otherwise 22-17 game with the WFC driving down the field into
a 30-17 Eagles victory. Still, the Eagles defense looked good, sacking Cousins
four times while forcing three fumbles and an interception, but also suffered a
serious blow losing cornerback Ronald Darby to an ugly ankle injury.
Indianapolis
Colts (+3.5)
@ Los Angeles Rams (41.5): Rams 20-17 Rams 46-9
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Los Angeles Memorial
Coliseum (Weather: Stormy, 70s)
Reasons: If
it weren't for the Bills/Jets game this would be the worst game of Week 1. The
Rams are a talented young team without much experience and the Colts are like a
ship without its captain. Hopefully a
bunch of celebrities show up to the game and the broadcasters divide their time
equally between pointing them out and speculating on Andrew Luck's return.
The Rams returned two of Scott Tolzien’s passes
for TDs, dropped him for a safety, and sacked him four times as the Colts
learned just how terrible they are without Andrew Luck. The Rams offense didn’t
really inspire much against the Colts, either, but their defense sure did.
Actually, maybe not, considering how terrible the Colts are. This was a great confidence
booster for the young Rams, and it just may continue with games versus
Washington and San Francisco the next two weeks before they quickly return to
Earth to face the Cowboys and Seahawks to begin October.
The city that cared marginally about the one
team it had off-and-on for years now has two other NFL teams to not care at all
about.
Seattle
Seahawks (+3)
@ Green Bay Packers (51): Packers 24-23 Packers 17-9
Sunday, 4:20 PM, Lambeau Field, Green
Bay, WI (Weather: Clear, high 50s)
Reasons: We're
getting a potential preview of the NFC Championship game in Week 1 as the
league's best quarterback takes on the league's best defense. Jordy Nelson is
healthy and Davante Adams seems to have figured it out, meaning Aaron Rodgers
will have all three of his wide outs (Randall
Cobb) healthy and primed, with recently signed tight end Marcellus Bennett
waiting in the flat. The problem is, Bennett's twin brother Michael is on the
other side of the ball, hunting down one Aaron Rodgers, and he just got some
more help in Sheldon Richardson. Huh?!
As if this Seahawks unit needed more help on a defensive unit stacked with
All-Pros! With Russell Wilson healthy the sky is the limit, although they get
one of their toughest tests of the season right out of the gate.
According to the box score Packers fans have much
to be excited about, but if you watched the game you know three things: Cliff Avril did not block Aaron Rodgers in the back, which nullified a Seahawks
pick-six, Bobby Lane did not throw a punch, which led to Lane’s ejection, and
Jimmy Graham was interfered with, which took another four points off of the
Seahawks board. In other words, the Packers really won 17-13 if you don’t count
the Wagner nonsense, but do count the Graham nonsense, or the Packers tied the
Seahawks 17-17 if you count both examples of nonsense. I’ll take it one
further: If Aaron Rodgers doesn’t pull a Peyton Manning and catch the Seahawks
with 12 men on the field as the scrambled to get their defense set and throw a
surprise TD to Jordy Nelson, the Packers really won 10-9, and that’s without considering
any of the aforementioned nonsense. In other words, the Packers didn’t even
really win the game. Add that to the fact the Seahawks defense was on the field
for 40 minutes and still held the Packers to 17 bush league points.
Carolina
Panthers (-5.5)
@ San Francisco 49ers (48): Panthers 27-17 Panthers 23-3
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Levis Stadium, Santa
Clara, CA (Weather: Clear low 70s)
Reasons: The
Panthers are traveling across the entire country and they're still nearly
6-point favorites. That
should tell you how terrible the 49ers are. Carolina's defense
isn't what it was a few years ago, but it will still manage to stifle this weak
49ers offense. The real intrigue will be health of Cam Newton's surgically
repaired shoulder.
The Panthers defense sacked Brian Hoyer four times
and forced him to fumble and throw an interception in this dominant win over
the 49ers. Carolina’s offense didn’t blow anyone away, and hyped rookie running
back Christian McCaffery fumbled away one of his 13 debut carries, but the
Panthers scored enough to set the stage for their defense to thrive. Carolina
won’t play the 49ers every week, but Cam Newton’s shoulder should improve, and
with it perhaps some accuracy.
New
York Giants (+4)
@ Dallas Cowboys (48): Cowboys 31-28 Cowboys 19-3
Sunday, 8:30 PM, AT&T Stadium,
Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Only
the fireworks off the field could match the fireworks on the field during the Sunday
Night Game of Week. The Ezekiel Elliot situation has everyone anxious and
confused (spare me the legal
justifications) and the Giants most electric player, for better and worse,
is doubtful to even play. Whether Odell Beckham Jr. plays or not the game will
be plenty entertaining, highlighted by the Dez Bryant/Janoris Jenkins match up.
Will Dak Prescott hit the sophomore slump? Will the off-the-field-distractions
overwhelm Dallas? Will OBJ create major distractions without even stepping foot
onto the field? Will Jerry Jones announce his lawsuit against the NFL at
halftime via descending midfield microphone as if he's announcing a boxing
match? This game has it all.
Who knew the Giants offense relied on Odell
Beckham Jr. this much? Apparently not the Giants as coach Bob MacAdoo
emphatically stated that New York’s offense would be just fine without him.
Maybe he was serious and “fine” to him meant one INT from the most overrated quarterback
in NFL history or 16 rushing yards on seven carries from Paul Perkins. The
Giants looked so bad Sunday Beckham could literally hold New York contract
hostages and the Giants would have to meet every demand, up to and including
footing the bill for the kicking net’s dress. The Cowboys, on the other hand,
looked great against this stout New York defense, which only managed to knock
Dak Prescott down three times. It must’ve infuriated Giants fans that Odell
Beckham Jr. sat on the bench injured via cheap preseason hit while the Cowboys
running back, who was supposed to be suspended, danced and smashed for over 100
rushing yards. The Cowboys defense looked great, too, albeit against the
hapless Giants offense, sacking Manning three times and forcing an
interception. Dallas may have ended up with the steal of the 2017 draft, too,
as second year linebacker Jaylon Smith (7 total tackles) brought young energy
to the team after returning from a gruesome knee injury two years ago.
For the second consecutive season
the NFL botched an investigation resulting in the lengthy suspension of a
superstar to start the season...or maybe not.
New
Orleans Saints (+3.5)
@ Minnesota Vikings (48): Vikings 24-21 Vikings 29-19
Monday,
7:10 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather:
Cloudy, low 60s)
Reasons: Adrian
Peterson steps onto the field at US Bank Field in Minneapolis as a Saint. That
might sound normal to a Vikings fan without a TV or the internet, but to those
of us who know Peterson was traded to the
New Orleans Saints, the situation is
weird...and awesome. You can't make
this stuff up. Peterson will be looking to show the Vikings they made a huge
mistake, but the second Adrian sees Dalvin Cook blow by him on the sidelines
he'll understand. The days of Drew Brees breaking records are waning, but
there's still enough gas in the tank to score plenty of points. That won't be
easy against this Vikings defense, however, as Minnesota gave up the 6th fewest
in 2016. In fact, I'd be surprised if Brees accomplishes much on Sunday.
Adrian Peterson argued with his new head coach
about football philosophies while rookie running back Dalvin Cook rushed for 127
yards on 22 carries to break Peterson’s Vikings rookie rushing record in
Minneapolis. It wasn’t a great homecoming for Ol’ Switch. Sam Bradford silenced
critics with an amazing 27-32 (84%) passing performance for 346 yards and three
TDs. Drew Brees was efficient himself, but even New Orleans 10-point 4th quarter
was matched by Minnesota, and wasn’t enough to even compete with the Vikings at
home. The post-Adrian Peterson era has arrived in Minnesota and it looks like
Dalvin Cook.
Los
Angeles Chargers (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos (43.5): Broncos 24-21 Broncos 24-21
Monday,
10:20 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather:
Possible storms, 60s)
Reasons: The
Chargers are one talented team, but relatively young. That poses a big problem
against such a formidable veteran defense, and is really the only reason Denver
stands a chance. Still, youth could overcome altitude, and when Denver has
resorted to resigning Brock Osweiler you know the quarterback situation in
Denver is shaky at best. It takes a quarterback to win in this league, but
having stellar defense doesn't hurt.
The Broncos held the Chargers to fewer than 140
total yards through the first three quarters and led 24-7 midway into the 4th. Then the Chargers defense took over. Adrian Phillips picked off Trevor
Siemian and 2:27 minutes later Phillip Rivers hit Keenan Allen in the end zone
to make it a 21-14 game. The very next series Jamal Charles fumbled, the Chargers recovered, and 22
seconds later we had a 24-21 game by way of another Rivers touchdown. Denver continued to unravel, missing a 50-yard
field goal, setting up Chargers rookie kicker Younghoe Koo to attempt to tie the game in
his NFL debut. His initial kick attempt went right down the middle, but was iced by the Broncos head coach. Koo's next
attempt was blocked and my week ended on a perfect call.
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphin: Good
luck, Tampa Bay and Miami.
POSTPONED
(Weather: Hurricane)
Stay tuned for Week 2: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday/Sunday!
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