Week 1 #NFL Projections (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 1 results: 11-5 (.688
wins); 6-10 (.375 v. spread)
Week 1 notes:
There’s a reason why gamblers avoid Week 1 in the NFL – anything can happen. Seven
NFL games were blowouts with wide margins at the half or even through the 3rd
quarter – two of those games were eventually won by the team down big at the
half (Eagles & Dolphins) and many of the others barely escaped with wins. It’s not easy projecting NFL games, but it’s a lot
easier making excuses for why I got the games wrong. Unfortunately, I spent five
hours doing so this morning, only to have my computer crash before saving the
new information. So you don’t get much in the way of excuses in Week 1, just the concise facts. Enjoy it, concise is something I seldom am when writing about anything, especially the NFL.
Green Bay Packers (+5) @ Seattle Seahawks (47): Seahawks 24-20 Seahawks
36-16
Thursday:
8:35 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather:
Clear, low 60s)
Reasons: Can
rookie Ha Ha Clinton-Dix single-handily turn around a Packers defense that was
27th in passing yards allowed in 2013? LOL. Just kidding, I hate that acronym,
but Clinton-Dix only helps a bad
situation, he doesn't solve it.
Unfortunately, the Packers will need much more help than a rookie safety if
this defense isn't to spoil another amazing offensive output in 2014. Perhaps a
healthy Clay Matthews helps. The Green Bay Packers were one of the most
prolific offenses in the NFL last season - despite
2011 MVP Aaron Rodgers missing seven games - averaging 26.1 ppg (6th in the NFL), while maintaining
top-level consistency in both the passing game (6th) and the run game (7th).
The defense was the problem - a big
problem - ranking near the bottom of the league in most important
statistics. The Seahawks are the opposite. Seattle was the best overall defense
in the NFL in 2013 and manhandled the record-breaking
Denver Broncos in embarrassing fashion on their way to the Super Bowl title.
The Seahawks can also run the ball (4th),
and were turnover machines, while hardly coughing it up (+20 turnovers). Many expect the Seahawks to do the same this year,
and why not? The defense may have improved if you can believe it, franchise
quarterback Russell Wilson has undoubtedly improved, and Marshawn Lynch
is...well, a beast. It might be hard to repeat in today's NFL, but the Seahawks
stand as good a chance as anyone. Their road to a repeat begins tonight and
it's a tough one. Aaron Rodgers gives the Seahawks their first real test in
Week 1, but stay nearly unstoppable at home (We see you, Arizona).
The Seahawks wasted no time getting back to their
2013 form, perhaps looking even better. The Seahawks held the high-flying
Packers and Aaron Rodgers to 255 yards, 189 of them passing yards, and had the
former MVP running for his life. The Seahawks offense rolled, racking up 398
yards, including 110 yards and two TDs from Beast Mode. The Seahawks are clearly
looking to repeat.
New Orleans Saints (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (52): Saints 30-21 Falcons 37-34
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: The
Saints had the 4th overall defense in the NFL last season, and that was before
adding safety Jairus Byrd. The Saints offense was 4th in yards and 10th in
points scored, and that was before adding rookie Brandin Cooks. In other words,
the Saints will be just as deadly in 2014 as they were in 2013 when they went
11-5. That's not good news for the team that just spent half the summer
embarrassing themselves in "Hard Knocks". The 4-12 Falcons will be
looking to rebound in 2014, but it won't be easy. The Falcons were a
middle-of-the-road offense at best in 2013 (14th in yards gained; 20th in
points scored), and their defense was one of the worst in the league, ranking
27th in both yards and points against. The Falcons have too many problems to
list, and you probably noticed them on HBO. Saints roll on the road.
The Falcons and QB Matt Ryan shocked the Saints,
and the rest of the NFL, when they not only beat the Saints, but racked up 568
yards in doing so versus the 4th ranked defense in the NFL in 2013.
I suppose 2014 is a different year and it showed.
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ St. Louis Rams (43):
Rams
24-20 Vikings 34-6
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, MO (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons:
The Rams - are you sitting? - lost quarterback Sam Bradford to a season-ending
knee injury. No I didn't repost a game preview from 2013, this is real. For the
second year in a row the Ram's franchise quarterback will miss considerable
time. Luckily for the Rams they're coached by Jeff Fisher, who believes in
back-up Shaun Hill, have one of the better young defenses in the NFL, and they
begin the season playing the woeful Vikings. The Vikings defense improved
dramatically, which isn't difficult when you rank at the bottom of the league,
with the additions of Captain Munnerlyn (CB)
and rookie linebacker Anthony Barr. The Vikings also drafted Teddy Bridgewater,
but Cassell gets the nod to start 2014. The Rams may have lost Bradford, but
they gained the best overall player in college football in OT/G Gregg Robinson
and another blue chipper in DT Aaron Donald. This could be a showcase of young,
unknown talent.
I don’t think anyone knows what happened in this
game. Adrian Peterson didn’t even lead the Vikings in rushing Sunday. The Rams,
on their 3rd quarterback already, aren’t looking in very good shape.
The one thing to hang their hat on, their good young defense, just looked young
yielding 34 points to the supposedly lowly Vikings.
Cleveland Browns (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (41.5): Steelers 24-17 Steelers 30-27
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Heinz Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
Sunny, 75 degrees)
Reasons: Neither
team was over .500 in 2013 and the two teams combined for 12 wins. Yeah. 2014
isn't looking that much better. The
Browns went out and did something about it - drafting Johnny Manziel and Justin
Gilbert - but were dealt a huge blow with the (as of now) year-long suspension
for WR Josh Gordon. The Steelers did a little something themselves, picking up
safety Mike Mitchell, RB LaGarrett Blount, and drafting linebacker Ryan
Shazier. The Steelers defense is improved and their offense will be
serviceable. The Browns continue to stack up talent and watch it waste away.
The Steelers led this game 27-3 at the half and managed
nearly 500 yards of total offense, but it took a Suisham FG with 5 seconds left
to seal the win.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+10.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (52): Eagles 31-20 Eagles
34-17
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Mostly sunny, high 70s )
Reasons:
The Jaguars are awful. Ranked 5th in
overall defense and dead last in overall offense, they might be the most
irrelevant team in the NFL. Don't tell that that rookies Blake Bortles (QB) and Marquis Lee (WR). The Eagles, however, are flying so
high that some pundits have penciled them into the Super Bowl. They'll be using
that eraser, but the Eagles will be tough this year. Sporting one of the most
dynamic offenses in the NFL, the Eagles also bolstered the defense drafting
defensive end Michael Smith out of Louisville. There is almost no hope for Jax
tomorrow.
Talk about a tale of two halves. The Jaguars led
17-0 nothing at the half before the Eagles snapped into shape an hauled off 34
unanswered second-half points.
Oakland Raiders (+5.5) @ New York Jets (40.5): Jets 24-17 Jets 19-14
Sunday, 1:00
PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Mostly sunny, mid-70s)
Reasons: Some
might rather watch the Jacksonville Jaguars practice then sit through this
game. The Raiders and Jets ranked towards the bottom of the NFL in overall
offense last season, and both made attempts at improvement. The Jets signed WR
Erik Decker and RB Chris Johnson - a boom or bust move on both counts - and the
Raiders drafted QB Derek Carr, who'll become the first rookie quarterback to
ever start the first game of the season for the Raiders. As for the defenses,
the Jets ranked in the top-10 in 2013 in yards allowed, and only improved by
drafting Calvin Pryor. The Raiders have nothing on defense, sans two free agent
pick ups in CB Tarell Brown and DE Antonio Smith. This would be the game of the
week...if it were the AFL in the late 60s.
The Oakland Raiders only managed 158 yards TOTAL
offense, 150 by rookie quarterback Derek Carr. The Jets turned the ball over
twice, helping the Raiders keep the score close, but the Jets 402 total yards
kept them in it. Still, if you outgained the Raiders 402-158 and still barely
won by 5, would you be happy?
Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (43): Bengals 24-20 Bengals 23-16
Sunday, 1:00
PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather:
Sunny, high 70s)
Reasons: I
have no idea what the odds makers are thinking here. Home or not, the Ravens
are not a better team then the Bengals. I can't wait to here what Chad Millman
has to say about this game. The Ravens came off of their 2012 Super Bowl win
and did what most teams have done after winning the championship the previous
year - they laid an egg. Joe Flacco signed a ridiculous deal and then went into
hiding. WR Anquan Boldin left for the 49ers and Ray Lewis retired, and they
apparently took the heart of the team with them. The Ravens had one of the
worst offenses in the league in 2013, but maintained a respectable defense,
ranking 12th overall. The Bengals by the same metrics, were 3rd in yards
allowed, 6th in points allowed, 6th in points scored, and 10th in yards gained.
The Bengals have one of the best defenses in the league, one of the best WRs in
the league, and the most underrated QB in NFL history. That's a joke, but he's
seriously disrespected. Home teams usually get three points, which I guess
means the experts have Cincy winning by 1.5. The Bengals don't roll, but they
certainly win.
The Bengals kicked 5 straight FGs to make it a
15-0 game at the half, but the Ravens scored 16 unanswered second-half points
to take control of the game. Unfortunately for the Ravens, 48 seconds after the
Ravens go ahead score AJ Green caught a pass from Andy Dalton, bobbled the
ball, and then made two defenders look foolish on his way to the game-winning
TD.
Buffalo Bills (+7) @ Chicago Bears (47.5): Bears 28-20 Bills 23-20
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather:
Sunny, mid-70s)
Reasons:
The Buffalo Bills had a "break-but-don't bend" defense in 2013,
ranking 10th in yards allowed, but 20th in points against (24.2 ppg). The Bills offense wasn't much better, ranking 19th and
22nd in yards gained and points scored, respectively. The Bills made many
off-season improvements to the offense, drafting WR Sammy Watkins and OT Cyrus
Kouandijo and signing free agent guard Chris Williams. The defense did not
improve, losing safety Jairus Byrd to the New Orleans Saints. The Bears have
their own issues on defense. After decades of being one of the toughest
defenses in the NFL, the Bears finishing 30th in yards allowed and 31st in
points allowed in 2013 - second to the last-place Minnesota Vikings by 0.1 ppg.
Offensively the Bears were much better, carrying the team. The Bears ranked 8th
in yards gained and 2nd in points scored, tied with the New England Patriots
with 27.8 ppg. Their isn't much room for rejoice - if the high-flying Bears
offense had played their own defense every week in 2013 they would have lost
every game 29.9 - 27.8. The low seems too low here. Bears should roll in Week
1.
The Bills front four was too much for the shaky
Bears line, and the high-flying Bears, despite gaining the third most yards in
Week 1 (427), lost on the road in OT.
Washington Natives (+3) @ Houston Texans (44.5): Texans 27-23 Texans 17-6
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: All
the off-season additions in the world won't fix RGIII's hair, I mean, quarterback
issues. After taking the league by storm in his 2012 rookie regular season,
RGIII was hurt badly in those playoffs and has never recovered. Blame in on
rehab, the Shanahan's, or RGIII himself, this is not the same dude. Then again,
I was never really blown away by him anyway. His success was as much surprise
on the league as it was pure talent. Look into any young fire-baller who comes
up from the minors and posts ridiculous late-season numbers; now look at his
sophomore campaign and tell me he did once everyone figured him out. Same
scenario. The Natives gained yards in 2013, but that's about it. They ranked
23rd in points scored, and their defense was appalling, ranking 2nd in the
league giving up 29.9 ppg (like the
Bears, 0.1 ppg from ranking last). Free agent pick-ups DeSean Jackson will
help the offense, while DE Jason Hatcher and CB Terry Porter will try and help
the defense. The Texans? Please. This team was penciled to go to the Super Bowl
in 2013 and ended up with DeJaveon Clowney and my favorite coach not named Bill
Belichick in Bill O'Brien.
#1 overall pick Ja’Deveon Clowney injured a knee
and is out 4-6 weeks. No matter, they have JJ Watt, who absolutely took over
this game when it mattered most. The Texans didn’t do anything overly
impressive, but stifled the Natives offense and RGIII, who was held to 269
total yards. The Texans didn’t show much on offense either, as Arian Foster led
all rushers with 103 yards…on 27 carries.
Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (43.5): Chiefs 27-23 Titans 26-10
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather:
Sunny, mid-70s)
Reasons: The
Titans upgraded their offense slightly by signing free agent everything Dexter
MacCluster and by drafting OT Taylor Lewan, but unfortunately it's still Jake
Locker at QB with very few weapons to throw the ball to. Defensively the Titans
are middle-of-the-road, despite the ability to get after it, but it might not
be enough to stop the high-flying Chiefs. Kansas City comes in with one of the
best defenses in the league - 5th in
points allowed - and also one of most prolific offenses in football (3rd in points). The problem with the
Chiefs is they don't gain many yards and they allow a ton of yardage on
defense. So KC is an efficient offense with a bend-but-don't-break defense.
That's not necessarily the recipe for a great team, but Week 1 should be an
easy one.
The Chiefs may have been a top-5 team in points
scored and points against in 2013, but they ranked in the lower half in yardage
in both categories. It showed Sunday. The Chiefs were outgained 405-245 and
turned the ball over three times in only 22 minutes of possesion on their way
to a drubbing at their home stadium.
New England Patriots (-4) @ Miami Dolphins (46.5): New England 28-21 Dolphins 33-20
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Dolphin Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather:
50% thunderstorms)
Reasons: The
New England Patriots enter 2014 as my AFC favorites and it's because of a few
simple things: Signing CB Darrel Revis makes a (healthy) Patriots defense one of the best in the NFL and the
Patriots had one of the best offenses in the NFL in 2013 (2nd points scored; 7th in yards gained) without any weapons. None. The Patriots
offensive line stepped back a bit in 2014 trading Logan Mankins, and the WR
corps still makes NE fans anxious, but in Tom Brady they trust. The Dolphins
are a middle-of-the-road team defensively, with talent on both sides of the
ball, but not enough. Their offense is...well, offensive. Regardless, any AFC
East game is a tough one, despite the quality of the team, and Miami is always
toughest at home. The Patriots only giving four points does not surprise me,
but the Patriots should roll anyway.
Many football experts and Miami fans saw this game
coming. Tom Brady was 6-7 in his career entering Dolphins games played in Miami,
and now he’s 6-8. The first half Patriots looked Super Bowl bound, especially
on defense, but the second half was dominated by the Dolphins front five
(switched from a 3-4 because of two linebacker injuries) and Knowshon Moreno,
who ran for over 220 yards against the Patriots last season as a member of the
Broncos. This was one of Tom Brady’s worst performances in his 14-year career and
it showed.
Carolina Panthers (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (38): Panthers 20-17 Panthers 20-14
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay,
FL (Weather: Hot, humid, high-80s)
Reasons: Two
major things come to mind here: TB is much
better than their 2013 record would suggest, and Carolina has major questions
entering 2014, despite loads of talent, especially on the defensive end of the
ball. In fact, the Panthers may have the best overall defense in the NFL, save
Seattle's top-level secondary. Carolina's front seven probably is the best in
the NFL, and I wouldn't sleep on Roman Harper, Thomas DeCoud, Charles Godfrey
and Melvin White. The problem with Carolina is the offense. The offensive line
is a patchwork of rookies, 2013 reserves and Ryan Kalil. Cam Newton is coming
off ankle surgery and broke a rib v. NE in the third preseason game; Newton is
questionable for today's game. That's good news for a decent and improving
defense. Unfortunately the Buccaneers had one of the worst offenses in the NFL
in 2013 (last in yards gained; 30th in
points scored), and despite some talent, will not fare well against these
Panthers.
The Panthers dominated the first 53 minutes of
this game, and with back-up quarterback Derek Anderson, who played in place of
Cam Newton, still nursing broken ribs. The Panthers defense held the Buccaneers
to 264 total yards and forced three turnovers and totally dominated Tampa Bay
until late in the third quarter when the Panthers defense started to get tired.
Rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin shined in his debut, hauling in six catches for 92
yards and his first NFL TD.
San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (51): 49ers 27-24 49ers 28-17
Sunday, 4:25
PM, Cowboys Stadium, Dallas, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: There's
been a lot of talk of bad defenses today, and the Cowboys might take the cake.
Giving up a ton of points is bad, and the Cowboys were 26th in that category,
but Dallas gave up a ridiculous 415+ yards a
game. That's unacceptable. That means that the Cowboy's opponents just had
some trouble getting in the end zone after running down the entire team. The
Dallas offense is far better, ranking 5th in points scored, but that will be
difficult against a 49ers defense that might not be as strong as it was in 2013
(3rd in points against; 5th in yards
allowed), but is still dangerous. Offensively the 49ers are about on the
same level as 2013 (11th in points
scored; 24th yards gained), but they did improve a little by drafting Ohio
State's Carlos Hyde to relieve Frank Gore. Even with a mediocre offense and a
formerly elite defense facing questions, the fact SF faces the Cowboys on
opening day on a big stage means the Cowboys screw something up.
The good news for Dallas fans? The defense didn’t
look like the worst in the league. The bad news? Tony Romo looked like the
worst quarterback. Romo threw three INTs and the Cowboys turned it over four
total times on their way to being thrashed at home on Opening Sunday. The 49ers
led 28-3 at the half before the Cowboys finally clamped down to avoid total
embarrassment. Rookie Carlos Hyde scored his first NFL TD.
Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) @ Denver Broncos (55): Broncos 37-24 Broncos 31-24
Sunday, 8:30
PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather:
Low 80s, 10% storms)
Reasons: This
is a rematch that everyone has been waiting for. A living legend shares the
stage with an emerging one again as Manning v. Luck II takes center stage
Sunday night in the late game. The Broncos exploits are well documented, and
they'll be coming into 2014 chomping at the bit to erase the memories of Super
Bowl XLVIII. I'm not entirely sure they will. Not only will there be mounting
pressure to erase those memories, the Broncos are also the hands-down favorite
to represent the AFC again this year in the Super Bowl.In other words, some
serious pressure exists on these Broncos and Peyton Manning, even in Week 1.
There are also individual battles, despite what anyone tells you. Being at
home, coming off an epic Super Bowl loss, high expectations, and playing a
Colts team led by Andrew Luck spells...well, probably an easy win. The Broncos
offense hasn't skipped a beat, although Wes Welker is dancing to some somewhere
with the aide of a Molly, and the
defense is better than people think - it's easy to give up some yards and
points when you're climbing back from a 55-10 deficit. The Colts defense is OK
(9th points against; 20th in yards
allowed), which could be trouble, and the offense is middle-of-the-road,
which means they might not be able to hang with these Broncos. Did I mention
the Broncos signed DE DeMarcus Ware and CB Aqib Talib. He'll play TY Hilton,
which might make the Colts disappear. Broncos should roll.
Another game that seemed over at the half, the
Broncos led 24-7 at the half, mostly on Peyton manning’s three TDs to tight end
Julius Thomas, who looked like a match up nightmare for anyone covering him.
The Colts did their typical thing and staged a considerable comeback, long
after the Broncos offense became bored and the Broncos defense took their foot of
the pedal late in the game. Andrew Luck threw for 370 yards and mounted quite a
comeback, and the Colts outgained the Broncos, but it wasn’t enough to overcome
two turnovers and the mighty Broncos offense at home
New York Giants (+6.5) @ Detroit Lions (47): Lions 27-21 Lions 35-14
Monday, 7:10
PM, MetLife Stadium, New York, NY (Weather:
Mostly clear, low 60s)
Reasons:
Raise your hand if you're sick of the Detroit Lions having an Pro-Bowl team
with a sub-.500 record. Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush, Golden
Tate, Joique Bell, Ndamukong Sun, Nick Fairley (pretend it's Auburn)...with a list of players like that you'd think
the Lions would be feared. Not so much. Regardless, the Lions have a new coach
and finally have a worthy receiver to take some of the attention off of
Megatron. The Giants on the other hand, are not a team full of Pro-Bowlers. Eli
Manning is coming off possibly his worst season ever, although metrics show the
blame fell squarely on the shoulders of his WRs, Victor Cruz is coming off an
injury, Rashard Jennings is the starting RB, and the Giants defense is one of
the worst in the NFL. The only real upgrade the Ginats made was at CB, signing
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, which will not work against Calvin Johnson. It
might not even work against Golden Tate. Prepare for boom or bust with both of
these teams in 2014.
The Lions and Calvin Johnson showed the world
exactly what we had assumed: that the Lions are capable of scoring tons of
points and that the NY Giants are awful. Eli Manning managed only 163 passing
yards, threw two interceptions and was sacked twice in a performance that
looked eerily similar to many of the sub-par performances from 2013. This is a tale
of two trending teams in opposite directions.
San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals (46.5): Cardinals 28-27 Cardinals 18-17
Monday, 10:20
PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, AZ (Weather:
40% storms, low 80s)
Reasons: The
Arizona Cardinals were a sleeper pick to make some noise in the NFC again this
year after going 10-6 and just barely missing the playoffs in 2013 before
losing defensive team leader DT Darnell Dockett for the season. With Tyrann
Mathiea coming off an injury and Daryl Washington gone, this isn't the same
defense from 2013 (7th in points allowed).
Regardless the Cardinals will still be tough defensively with Patrick Peterson
picking up the leadership role, and the Cardinals offense is good enough. The
Chargers are also an AFC sleeper pick for many pundits. SD had a decent defense
in 2013 (11th in points against), but
gave up too many yards; offensively the Chargers were one of the better teams
in the NFL, finishing 5th in yards gained and 12th in scoring (only 1.3 points separates 8th and 12th).
Both of these teams could surprise many people this season...either way.
These two teams were 5th (ARZ) and 11th
(SD) in points allowed, so it’s not totally surprising these two teams combined
for 35 total points. The Chargers led 17-6 through the 3rd quarter
before the Cardinals rattled off 12 unanswered points to steal another game
from a Chargers team that is used to blowing big leads late. The Chargers
offense only managed 290 total yards and the Cardinals defense, despite being
without Darnell Docket (IR) and Daryl Washington (free agency) looked solid.
Stay tuned Thursday for Week 2: #NFL Weekly Predictions (w/
spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!
Personal Twitter: @phaulkner
