Week 12 results: 7-7 wins (50-31 season); 6-8 v. spread (28-53 season)
New Orleans Saints (-9) @ Atlanta Falcons (53): Saints 31-24 Saints 17-14
Monday, 8:25 PM, Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
As much as I wish the Saints would get crushed after not only stealing
the game from the 49ers Sunday on a horrendously bad call, but for Drew
Brees adding fuel to fire every chance he gets by claiming his smallish
mouth filled with blood after the legal hit. Alas, it's
not going to happen. It could; their really is no explicable way in
which we can answer why the Falcons have been this bad (they rank 3rd in overall passing), but they have been, and with the Saints' improved defense (ranked 3rd v. the pass), the chances of a Falcons upset seem even lower. I finally learned last week (Den v. KC) that even against stout defenses high-scoring offenses (2nd-ranked passing attack)
with HOF quarterbacks beast; so you can imagine what happens when those
offenses face one of the worst defenses in the league (22nd v. pass; 30th v. run). If Vegas has New Orleans as 9-point favorites on the road then I'm all in. The tired Saints (short week)
led by the bloodied Brees continue the trend they began Week 1
destroying Atlanta's once bright season in the weekly shit show that is
Thursday Night Football.
Thursday night games often disappoint.
The players are tired, the coaches have had a short week to prepare,
and even the fans haven't recovered from the previous weekends games. In all seriousness, any NFL player will tell you they don't even begin to recover physically until Tuesday, so most don't expect the best out of these guys on "TNF" (and the NFL brass wanted 18 games).
That said, the Falcons, despite managing only 14 points, gave one of
their best efforts of the season against their bitter divisional rivals,
holding the Saints to a measly 17 points (12 below their season average). Maybe not, but the Falcons held the ball longer (7 more minutes), gained more first downs, and gave up fewer penalties, but key sacks and a costly turnover spelled doom for the Falcons. The game was over in the first half.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) @ Cleveland Browns (40): Browns 23-20 Steelers 27-11
1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 50% snow, high 20s)
Reasons: As improved as the Steelers have been in the past few weeks (2-0 last two games, 4-2 last six games), the Browns have one of the best overall defenses in the league (in terms of yardage)
and are fighting for their divisional lives. The snowy conditions
should keep this tough divisional match up low-scoring; the Browns
escape at home.
The Steelers own the Browns, something I forgot Saturday. The Browns defense is at a level the Steelers defense used to be at,
and the Steelers offense was struggling to the point where a Browns
home pick seemed legit. Unfortunately four turnovers made that
impossible. Not much else to report. The Steelers didn't blow minds
offensively, but the defense showed improvement...against a horrific
Browns offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) @ Detriot Lions (49): Lions 31-20 Buccaneers 24-21
1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
The Buc's have won two straight games after losing their first eight,
and even scored a season-high 41 points last week v. the dreadful
Falcons. That hot streak ends this week as the Lions look to solidify
their playoff position. The league's 3rd-ranked passing attack will
shred the Buc's lame pass defense as Revis and Co. focus solely on
Megatron. Mike Glennon has revitalized this offense, and will hit
Jackson for one or two, but will it be enough? No, the Lions roll.
Just
when the Lions were poised to escape with the win against the suddenly
surging Buccaneers, the ball inexplicably bounced out of Megatron's
usually sturdy hands into Johnthan (no 'a') Bank's for the 5th interception of the game - and therein lies the key. Turnovers killed the Lions. Stafford forced the ball all day as the Buccaneers seem to be showing their support for Schiano, who seemed doomed just a few short weeks ago. The Lions destroyed the Buccaneers on nearly every level, but mistakes once again cost the Lions.
Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) @ Green Bay Packers (44): Packers 27-21 TIE 26-26
1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Clear, cold, 20s)
Reasons:
The Packers have been reeling in their three straight losses without
Rodgers, but have still managed to gain yards. They'll finally put up
points this week, too, sweeping the season series from the confused
Vikings. The cold weather will also get to this cozy dome team as one of
the league's highest-rated offenses goes to work.
Lame. Only the 4th tie in the last 13 years, this one was all Vikings through the 3rd Quarter, but a benching of Scott Tolzien for Matt Flynn
evidently sparked the Packer's comeback. After going up early, the
Packers scored 16 unanswered 4th Quarter points to TIE the game. The
Vikings run game went beast mode, but their one-dimensional offense and
mediocre defense was only a neutral match the Packer's disheveled offense and banged-up defense. This game at any other time in the season may have been epic.
San Diego Chargers (+5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (42): Chiefs 27-21 Chargers 41-38
1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Clear, cold, 30s)
Reasons: The
Chiefs were exposed last week on national television and could get
caught looking towards a rematch against Denver again next week, were it
not for the fact that Andy Reid is their head coach. The Chargers will
come into freezing weather and their only real strength (4th-ranked passing offense)
will be thwarted by the Chiefs 9th-ranked pass defense. The Chiefs run
game will be the difference in this one as they take the important
divisional match up.
The Chiefs had a few things going against them here. Not only did they just lose a close game to their bitter divisional rival Denver Broncos, and not only were they facing the same team again next week, but they lost their two arguably best defensive players to bookend the 2nd Quarter.
Alex Smith and the Chief's offense was stellar, but so was the
Charger's, taking full advantage of the injuries on the other side gaining nearly 500 yards. The Chargers also forced two turnovers, but it took a last second - and very Riveresque - bullet into the end zone as time expired to win, as a furious 2nd half ended in the Chief's losing their second straight after starting 9-0.
Chicago Bears (+1.5) @ St. Louis Rams (45.5): Rams 24-23 Rams 42-21
1:00 PM, Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, MO (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: This
game isn't much to look forward to, which means it'll probably end up
in some high-scoring shoot-out. The Bears defense is on IR, Cutler is
hurt, and the Rams are just fighting for an identity. But every time I
predict a low-scoring bore, the opposite happens. I look for the Bears
to take advantage of an injured Rams' secondary and that's about it.
Lots of FGs in this one.
The Bears defense is a shell of its former self, and we're talking a soft shell. They gave up rushing TDs to three different players, 424 yards on offense, and committed no turnovers; on offense they turned the ball over three times, including two fumbles, one of which was returned for a TD; as a team they committed 10 penalties. The once-impressive Bears look like they're on the downward slide as major injuries have piled up. The Rams defense continues to improve week-to-week,
even though the Bears managed an incredible 30 first downs, and their
offense gained over 400 yards. There's an opposite trend occurring in
St. Louis.
Carolina Panthers (-4.5) @ Miami Dolphins (41): Panthers 27-17 Panthers 20-16
1:00 PM, SunLife Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Warm, 50% rain)
Reasons: The Panthers are balling. Even with that bullsh*t
call at the end of the game v. the Patriots last week, the Panthers
deserved the win and have rattled off six straight. That will continue
as the Dolphins are not only only no match for the multifaceted
Panthers, they'll still dealing with the outside noise. The top-ranked
Panthers defense (5th v. the pass; 3rd v. the run) will give
Miami trouble all day as their mediocre offense struggles. Their only
hope is that Cam Newton lets the recent success get to his head and the
decent Miami defense wreaks havoc. Not likely.
This game was as boring as the score indicates. Both defenses had respectable games, as expected. The Dolphins jumped out to an early lead before the Panthers scored 14 unanswered second-half points to escape Miami with the win. You can't blame them for still celebrating their win at home v. New England the previous week midway through the Dolphins game.
New York Jets (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (39): Ravens 21-17 Ravens 19-3
1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Cold, 30s, windy)
Reasons: One
of the better defensive match ups of the week, the improving Ravens
defense will give Geno & The Jets trouble all day. The Jets only
chance will come on the ground, where they rank 8th. The Jets also stop
the run (1st), which means Ray Rice's resurgence will last
exactly one week. I look for the Ravens to go to the air often, unless
the wind poses a serious problem.
Look for more FGs in this one. Ravens take the close defensive battle
at home as the Jets end the roller coaster ride and lose two in a row.
Nothing to say here except that Bad Geno showed up and gave the Jets absolutely no chance. Actually, I think it's always Bad Geno, he just gets lucky and looks good once and a while. An expected defensive battle, the Jets managed only 220 yards on offensive and turned it over three times, including two Geno INTs. Flacco and Ray Rice didn't fare much better, as Flacco managed one TD and Rice managed 30 rushing yards, as many as his back up (Pierce). This ended up the FG-fest I predicted.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) @ Houston Texans (43.5): Texans 27-16 Jaguars 13-6
1:00 PM, Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
The Jaguars are simply the NFL's worst team. They average just under 13
ppg, and they rank last in the NFL in rushing yards and against the
run. Apparently Jacksonville had no concept of the running game. They
have lost nine of ten games and their first eight before winning two
weeks ago. The Texans aren't much better. Despite higher statistical
rankings, including the NFL's best pass defense, the Texans have lost
eight straight after winning their first two and have turned a Super
Bowl-or-bust season into a bust. Vegas has Houston crushing, so why not.
If you had the Jaguars congratulations, because Vegas is usually the best measuring stick, and they had the Texans favored by 10 (if we're just going by layperson terms). A guy named Dennis Johnson led the Texans in rushing (74 yards) and a guy named Ryan Griffin led them in receiving (37 yards). It has not been a good year for the Texans, and the former high-flying offense gained the fewest yards of any team in the league Sunday (218 yards) as they continued their abysmal slide. The Jaguars, meanwhile, somehow managed to take advantage on a rare decent game from the miniature bowling ball for a RB.
Tennessee Titans (-1) @ Oakland Raiders (41.5): Titans 24-21 Titans 23-19
4:05 PM, O. Co. Stadium, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny, warm)
Reasons: Two teams going nowhere, one due to injuries and young coaching, one due to injuries, underachieving, and good coaching.
Maybe the latter isn't so good if a team is underachieving, or perhaps
we were all just wrong about Chris Johnson. Either way this looks to be
boring game as they only potential lightning (Johnson) should be
bottled up all day by the Raiders 6th-ranked rush defense, the only
feather in their proverbial cap. Titans prevail with better coaching.
When
I was analyzing this game I looked to both teams season scoring
averages and thought it actually looked like a pretty good play, if not
for being such a weird score: 23-19. It's one of those hindsight moments
when you imagine yourself calling the exact score in Vegas and cashing
in...and then "present sight" sets in. Despite committing 10 penalties, the Titans dominated the clock and took advantage of two Raider turnovers. Fitzpatrick lit up the 4th Quarter as the hapless Raiders helped keep the Titans alive.
Indianapolis Colts (+2) @ Arizona Cardinals (45): Colts 24-21 Cardinals 40-11
4:05 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, AZ (Weather: 60s, 10% rain)
Reasons:
Vegas has the Cardinals pass rush getting to Luck as well as stopping
the run. The Colts WR aren't what they were the first half of the
season, but I like the Colts improved ground game. The Cardinals
2nd-ranked rush defense will stop the colts from running all over the
field, but not scoring. Although the Colts offensive line might struggle
some v. the Cardinals, I can't see Carson Palmer continuing this
winning streak v. an opportunistic Colts defense, which is surprisingly
good v. the pass, despite only being ranked 16th. This will be a battle
of the pass rushes. Colts win a close one on the road.
When I looked at what Vegas had to say about this game, I understood them to say that these were basically evenly-matched teams and gave the customary 3 points to the home team. I disagreed seeing Indianapolis
as slightly better, not taking into consideration the Colts recent
first-half troubles, and the inevitable catching up that would ensue. Turns out we were both wrong as the Cardinals destroyed the suddenly struggling Colts, who have been outscored 93-12 in their last four first-halves. They only managed 239 yards on offense and turned
the ball over in 23 measly minutes of possession. The Cardinals had
another great day in the air and the defense dominated again with Karlos Dansby bringing an INT to the house. These two teams are on opposite trends as well.
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) @ New York Giants: Giants 27-24 Cowboys 24-21
4:25 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Cold, 30s, windy)
Reasons: The Giants are on the rise. Their annual winning streak is in full effect and
this high-flying passing attack should decimate the Cowboys pass
defense, which is ranked last in the NFL. The Cowboys aren't much better
at stopping the run, either (ranked 29th), but that shouldn't be a problem v. the league's 29th-ranked rushing offense.
Romo's offense will try to get it going in the air, but that will be
trouble in the cold and wind going against this revamped Giants pass
rush. The Giants avenge the Week 1 loss and the Cowboys continue to bask
in mediocrity.
The Giants were
in the stretch of their annual late-season winning streak when the
Cowboys came in and played just better enough, despite the weather, to
steal the win late on another Romo 4th Quarter drive. The game was evenly matched, even down to the penalties, but the rushing edge the Giants held all game (202 yards) didn't win out as the Cowboys returned a key pick-six and stayed alive continuing their winning ways in November. The Giants are most likely finished after another late-season winning streak came to an end.
Denver Broncos (-2.5) @ New England Patriots (54): Patriots 27-24 Patriots 34-31
8:25, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Very cold, high 10s, windy)
Reasons: The
Patriots haven't been home underdogs since 2006, probably v. Manning
and the Colts. Not that the Patriots need any bulletin board material,
but that underdog status at home, combined with the robbery that took
place last week in Carolina will have the Patriots ready to go. Oh yeah,
then there's the weather, Manning's kryptonite. Game time temps will be
freezing and wind chill temps will have Manning's face red and worried
as the cold weather has stalled Manning's perfectly oiled machine many
times in the past. The Bronco's top-ranked passing game is a little
banged up, but so is the Patriots 12th-ranked pass defense. The Patriots
might have trouble on the ground (ranked 9th) v. the Broncos 4th-ranked run defense, so they'll most likely put it up in the air against a bad pass defense (28th) as the weather never effects the hardened Patriots. We take full advantage of the weather in this one.
Wow. The Patriots looked done at home in their own weather at halftime, down 24-0. The Patriots fumbled the ball three times in the first quarter, two
forced and recovered by Raver Von Miller, one returned for a TD.
Another fumble occurred at the Patriot's 23, giving Knowshon Moreno an
easy TD. Two of those fumbles were forced by illegal helmet-to-helmet hits, but of course the officials never saw any of those hits. The Broncos, more specifically Peyton Manning, sat back and handed the game off to Moreno, who ran all over the Patriots spotty run defense. Manning basically did nothing,
saved the ankle, and "weathered" the storm as Moreno ran all over us.
Just as the Broncos wrote it up. Maybe just as Bill Belichick (BB) wrote it up, too, because the Broncos got so comfortable running the ball that by the time Manning needed to win the game in the air, he struggled, save a late 4th Quarter TD that tied the game, sending it to overtime. Manning was a shell of himself, as he usually is v. the Patriots in Foxborough (there is a 'ugh' there, which most opponents experience upon arriving) in
cold weather. This game was a tale of two halves as the Broncos turned
it over several times in the second half and Brady went beast-mode,
having the Patriots on top 28-24 by the 4th Quarter. Manning was held to 157 yards passing, but his late incredible TD tied the game and sent it to overtime, where BB again defied odds by giving the ball to Manning to start OT. The gamble paid off as Manning was ineffective and the Broncos were forced to punt. Wes Welker, returning to New England for the first time since bailing for Denver, and who had dropped a crucial 3rd and 8 pass in the 4th (sound familiar?), was late in calling off his blockers, one of them being Tony Carter, of whom the ball bounced and twirled right into. The Patriots accepted this muff gift from the departed Welker and kicked the FG from the 13 yard line.
San Francisco 49ers (-6) @ Washington Natives (47): 49ers 31-24 49ers 27-6
Monday, 8:25 PM, FedEx Field, Washington DC (Weather: Cold, clear, mid 30s)
Reasons: The Natives can't seem to get out of their own way, and most of it has to do with attitude. This team has too many mental issues to take on such a physical, mentally tough team as in the 49ers, coming off a stinging loss to the Saints in which they were robbed of a win due to a ridiculous roughing the passer penalty. I would not want to be RGIII going against this defense after last week. SF's run game (ranked 5th) will be in full effect as RGIII continues to struggle but put up late stats. The 49ers get on track big time this week, sending the Natives into "next season" mode.
There is nothing to talk about here other than 49ers domination. The 49ers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and their LBs could start and star as that team's primary defender on any team in the NFL. The same might be said about their three down linemen, and one of the league's best front-seven units shined again v. a Natives team in serious trouble. Kaepernick shined again with three TDs, once again to Boldin and Davis, the only WRs to catch TDs for the 49ers this season. RGIII struggled again, perhaps with his worst game of the season, throwing for only 127 yards and an INT. Whether he's hurt or not, this is not he same RGIII as defenses have figured him out sending the Natives into scramble mode - and not the pistol kind.
Stay tuned Wednesday for an early edition of 'Week 13 NFL Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)' for the games on Thanksgiving.
Phaulkner
Monday, 8:25 PM, FedEx Field, Washington DC (Weather: Cold, clear, mid 30s)
Reasons: The Natives can't seem to get out of their own way, and most of it has to do with attitude. This team has too many mental issues to take on such a physical, mentally tough team as in the 49ers, coming off a stinging loss to the Saints in which they were robbed of a win due to a ridiculous roughing the passer penalty. I would not want to be RGIII going against this defense after last week. SF's run game (ranked 5th) will be in full effect as RGIII continues to struggle but put up late stats. The 49ers get on track big time this week, sending the Natives into "next season" mode.
There is nothing to talk about here other than 49ers domination. The 49ers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and their LBs could start and star as that team's primary defender on any team in the NFL. The same might be said about their three down linemen, and one of the league's best front-seven units shined again v. a Natives team in serious trouble. Kaepernick shined again with three TDs, once again to Boldin and Davis, the only WRs to catch TDs for the 49ers this season. RGIII struggled again, perhaps with his worst game of the season, throwing for only 127 yards and an INT. Whether he's hurt or not, this is not he same RGIII as defenses have figured him out sending the Natives into scramble mode - and not the pistol kind.
Stay tuned Wednesday for an early edition of 'Week 13 NFL Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)' for the games on Thanksgiving.
Phaulkner
