NFL Week 11 predictions (w/ spreads and analysis)

New York Jets (+1) @ Buffalo Bills (41): Bills 20-17 

1:00 PM, Buffalo, NY (Weather: heavy rain, unseasonably warm)

Reasons: The Jets have not won - or lost for that matter - back to back games this season, an interesting trend I see continuing. On the other side, the Bills have lost three in a row, and will be looking for their first win in a month, at home where they historically play better. Both teams feature two of the league's best rushing attacks, which will come in handy during the heavy rain Sunday. Conversely, both teams feature two of the league's worst passing attacks; those statistics will not improve as the two rookie QBs will be throwing in the rain, if at all. The real test will be if the Bill's slightly banged up two-headed RB monster (Jackson/Spiller) can crack the league's top rush defense. I think they will just enough in the driving rain, complimented by a few heady plays from EJ Manuel and a few mistakes from Geno Smith, to take the sloppy win at home.

Baltimore Raven (+3) @ Chicago Bears (46): Bears 17-13

1:00 PM, Chicago, IL (Weather: severe thunderstorms, high winds, unseasonably warm)

Reasons: I can't imagine the O/U would still be 46 if the lines were set today considering the storm forecasted to roll through the Chicago area this afternoon. The weather combined with a banged-up (if playing) Jay Cutler spells doom for the NFL's 8th-ranked passing attack, so they'll hand it off to the run game as Forte takes on the league's 10th-ranked run defense, which is a little banged up. Flacco will have no shot in the air and will have to rely on Ray Rice and the league's 30th-ranked rushing attack, which may have a chance in this weather v. the 31st-ranked rush defense. The stars have aligned to make this one a sloppy game as well, hence the low score.

Cleveland Browns (+6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (42): Bengals 20-17

1:00 PM, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: sever thunderstorms, windy, unseasonably warm)

Reasons:  Two of the league's best complete defenses will square off in more bad weather and produce another low-scoring game. The Brown's struggling offense will have a hard time gaining traction in the mud or against this beastly Bengals defense, but the strength of the Bengals offense could be non-existent in bad weather v. an equally beastly defense. It'll be up to the Law Firm and the rookie Giovani Benard to carry the load unless the rains come late. That will dictate the game.

Washington Natives (+3.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (52.5): Natives 34-31

1:00 PM, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 20% rain, high 60's)

Reasons: Two of the league's best offenses square off against the two of the worst passing defenses and two of the most mediocre run defenses. This is the recipe for a high-scoring game as the Natives look to avenge the Week 1 loss in which Chip Kelly unleashed his new offense and took center stage  ruining RGIII's return.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (47.5): Lions 21-17

1:00 PM, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: 80% rain, high 60's)

Reasons: The theme this week is bad weather stifling high-octane passing offenses. This plagues this game too, as two of the league's top passing offenses will more than likely be slowed in heavy rain. Megatron will always manage some offense, but this one will again be left to the rushing attacks, in which Pittsburgh's backs will face the league's 8th-ranked run defense. Another low-scoring game.

Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (43.5): Falcons 21-20

1:00 PM, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: warm 20% rain)

Reasons: What an awful game. The Buc's are coming off their first win of the season, and the Falcons are a shell of their former selves, but with the Falcons getting healthier, and having no option but to pass against the league's 5th-ranked run defense, I see them squeaking out a victory v. the hapless Buccaneers. Schiano's days are numbered.

Arizona Cardinals (-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (41.5): Cardinals 20-13

1:00 PM, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: warm, 30% rain)

Reasons: The Jaguars also won their first game of the season last week, but that won't help them this week as they face one of the league's best run defenses. Wait, they can't rush the ball. They can't throw either, especially in the rain. They will slow the Cardinals mediocre passing attack, but should manage some yards on the ground v. the hapless Jaguars. The Cardinals offense won't be lighting up the scoreboard, but will manage enough point to beat these domesticated, London-bound Jaguars.

Oakland Raiders (+7) @ Houston Texans (42): Texans 24-17

1:00 PM, Houston , TX (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: I couldn't for the life of my figure out why the Texans were favored by 7 points, even with the recent injuries to the Raider's offense, until I realized that the Texans, despite being 2-7, are ranked in the top half of all four major statistical categories, including the #1 ranked pass defense. That is going to spell doom for the Raiders, who will not be able to get anything going against the Texans. Case Keenum has sparked the Texans of late, and I expect that trend to continue.

San Diego Chargers (-1.5) @ Miami Dolphins (45.5): Chargers 24-20

4:05 PM, Miami, FL (Weather: warm and clear)

Reasons: The Dolphins are reeling, and despite the quieting storm, the clouds still linger. Add that to a Chargers team that can turn it on (and off) in any game and I think the Chargers take advantage of an emotionally injured team that is getting worse by the week. The 4th-ranked passing attack of the Chargers v. the 14th-ranked pass defense of the Dolphins may be the only intriguing match up of the game. At least the weather will be nice.

San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ New Orleans Saints (47.5): 49ers 30-27

4:25 PM, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: Possibly the best match up of the day, we have an early glimpse of the potential NFC Championship game with two of the best teams in the NFC (and the NFL) squaring off. Despite SF's passing problems, they bring the house with the running game, something NO has a hard time stopping. Conversely, the Saints have one of the best passing attacks in the league, but no running game, which will hurt the one-dimensional Saints v. one of the best overall defenses in the NFL. 49ers stun the Saints at home in a close one.

Green Bay Packers (+5) @ New York Giants (42): Giants 24-20

4:25 PM, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 30% rain, unseasonably warm)

Reasons: The Giants could play the Houston Texans in the Super "High Statistical Rankings Yet Horrible Records" Bowl. Both teams are ranked high enough to warrant leading records, not just winning records, yet mistakes by both teams have plagued them all season, costing them many wins. The Giants' defense is improving, just in time, and the offense should take advantage of an injured Packers defense that was mediocre anyway. The Packers are dealing with major injuries and are hoping just to stay afloat as they weather said injuries. The Giants will win their fourth game in a row, a feat they have accomplished every year Manning has been at the helm.

Minnesota Vikings (+12.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (45.5): Seahawks 30-20

4:25 PM, Seattle, WA (Weather: 50% rain, mid-40s)

Reasons: The Seahawks beast...on EVERY level. Even their 24th-ranked pass offense would have you fooled. On the other side, however, is a Vikings team that, despite injuries and poor statistical rankings and record, seem to give teams trouble now and again, including an unexpected win v. the Natives last week. That will not happen this week. Despite AP getting his, Ponder and the Vikings will be shut down. The Seahawks' run wild on this poor rush defense, and even manage a few in the air.

Kansas City (+8) @ Denver Broncos (49.5): Chiefs 28-27

8:30 PM, Denver, CO (Weather: Freezing, clear)

Reasons: Best scoring offense (41.2 points/game) v. best scoring defense (12.8 points). Something has to give. Manning is hobbled. That can't be good v. this KC front seven. The Broncos improving rushing attack might gain some traction v. the Chief's 24th-ranked run defense, but I wouldn't count on it. The name of the game will actually be Denver's defense, as their 4th-ranked run defense will give the Chiefs respectable run game trouble all night, leaving much of the game to Alex Smith. That could go either way as the Broncos have one of the league's worst pass defenses. This is a tough game to call, and I can't believe Vegas has the Broncos as 8-point favorites. With key players hobbled and KC trying to make its first true statement, I like the Chiefs. Barely. Hey, I called the Bronco's only other loss.

New England (+2.5) @ Carolina Panthers (46): Panthers 27-24

Monday, 8:30 PM, Charlotte, NC

Reasons: This one hurts. The one kryptonite for the Patriots when they're healthy and firing on all cylinders (which they finally seem to be)? A beastly pass rush. Ugh. Our strength has been the run; they're ranked 2nd v. the run. Ugh. Bill Belichick will no doubt give Cam Newton headaches all day, but the Patriots rank 30th v. the run, a strength of Carolina's game. We're talking about a future HOF QB and a future HOF coach v. a third-year headcase and a coach that could be fired if things don't continue to improve. Still, this Carolina team is on the rise, and despite the Patriots offense trending the same way, recent key injuries on defense will have the Patriots playing catch up against one of the best overall defenses in the NFL, one with the recipe to beat New England.