Week 21: #NFL
Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
SUPER
BOWL XLIX EDITION
New England Patriots
14-4 (-1)
@ Seattle Seahawks 14-4 (48): Patriots
24-21
Sunday, 6:00 PM, Univ. of
Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather:
Clear, low 50s)
Reasons: The Super Bowl
most pro football experts around the country predicted before the season began
has come to fruition and it would be hard to argue against either of these two teams
facing off for the Super Bowl title. What drama, to boot: The Seattle Seahawks
are the first team to make it back to the Super Bowl in consecutive season in
10 years, since 2003-2004, when their Super Bowl XLIX opponent New England
Patriots not only made consecutive Super Bowls, but won back-to-back titles,
the first team to do so since the 1998-1999 Denver Broncos. What no experts could
have predicted, however, was the Conference Championship path each team would
take. The Seahawks came back from down 19-7 to the Green Bay Packers in the 4th
quarter, while nearly losing their two best defensive backs and Marshawn Lynch to
injury in the process; the Patriots demolished the Indianapolis Colts 45-7 only
to mired in “DeflateGate” ever since. Suffice it to say my feelings on the
subject are well documented in the ProFootballMedia.com Championship reviews: Tuesday’sGone: Championship Round Edition.
The
real story here is that other than a hobbled Brandon LaFell and a sickly Tom
Brady, the New England Patriots are 100% in a Super Bowl for the first in their
three tries since the Patriots’ last embarrassment, the so-called “SpyGate”
scandal. They’re going to need it, because if the Patriots thought the New York
Giants defenses of 2007 and 2011 were something, 2014 Seattle is something to
be marveled. No defense since the Ravens’ defenses of the early 2000s conjure
the fear the Seattle Seahawks do, and they’re no flash in the pan. After taking
the 2013 regular season by storm, allowing only 14.4 ppg with 39 takeaways, the
Seahawks eventually demolished the record-setting Denver Broncos 43-8,
solidifying their place in history. However, after starting the 2014 season 3-3,
and with their defense allowing 23.5 ppg, the 2013 championship year seemed
liked a distant memory and Seattle seemed destined to become yet another Super
Bowl winner to miss the playoffs the following year. Not so fast my friends –
the Seahawks went 9-1 to close out the season, and allowed fewer points (136) than they had in the first six
games (141), allowing only 13.6 ppg.
Sound more like it?
New
England suffered a similar path: after starting the season 2-2 there were
whispers of the demise of the great New England Bill Belichick-Tom Brady
dynasty; the dynamic Patriots’ offense was only averaging 20 ppg as tight end
Rob Gronkowski recovered from injury and slowly got back into the swing of
things. Then came the swing of things. With a healthy Rob Gronkowski, the
Patriots rattled off seven straight wins, winning won ten of their final twelve
games, with one of the two losses coming Week 17 at half strength against the
Buffalo Bills. During the Patriots meaningful eleven-game stretch (sans the Bills game), New England
averaged 34.5 ppg, and finished the season averaging 29.2. If the Patriots
played any starters besides Tom Brady in that final Buffalo game, New England
would have led the NFL in scoring. Truth is, the Patriots didn’t lead the NFL
in anything of importance other than individual game scoring differential (+9), which they tied with, guess who, the
Seahawks. The Seattle Seahawks led the NFL in many things: rushing yards, passing defense, total defense, and scoring
defense. They were second only to the Pittsburgh Steelers in defensive TOP by
23 seconds, and were the 3rd-ranked rush defense, held their
opponents to 37% on 3rd down, and finished the season ranked 4th
in turnover ration (+10). What about
the Seahawks offense, the supposed bane of their existence? In addition to
being the league’s top-ranked rushing attack, the Seahawks ranked 10th
in the NFL with 24.6 ppg, and 11th in 3rd down
conversions.
Before
we get caught up in the Seahawks’ glory, let’s consider their opponent, lest we
forget about the most recent, and still highly functioning NFL dynasty. The
2014 Patriots were an offensive juggernaut, ranking 4th in scoring
offense (29.2ppg), 4th in
first downs, 5th in Red Zone offensive TD percentage, 6th
in 3rd-down conversions, and 9th in passing offense,
while ranking second in the league in turnover ration (+12). Don’t let the offensive numbers fool you, the Patriots’
defense, led by All-Pro Darrell Revis, play great defense, too. Besides ranking
8th in the NFL in scoring defense, the Patriots were the 9th-ranked
rush defense, something that will come in handy against Lynch and the bruising
Seahawks.
The
numbers suggest a team with a great offense and a good defense is playing a
team with a great defense and a good offense. History suggests teams with great
defenses, sound running games, and timely special teams win Super Bowls. The
Seahawks are the best defense and the
best running game, and kicker Steven
Hauschka ranked 10th-ranked in scoring while the Seahawks’ punt coverage
team ranked 7th in punt return yards allowed. New England has a
respectable running game that improved as the season progressed, one of best
defenses in the NFL, and some of the best special teams in the league led by
kicker Stephen Gostkowski (ranked 4th
in the NFL in points), return man Julian Edleman, and special team guru Matthew
Slater. In other words, when you set aside the statistical accolades shared by
both teams, Super Bowl XLIX boils down to one of the best defenses of this
latest NFL generation and an emerging superstar in Russell Wilson led by
innovator Pete Carroll against arguably the greatest quarterback and head coach
in NFL history, both playing in their 6th Super Bowl in their 14
years together.
The
pressure to repeat combined with the Patriots’ burning desire to eliminate the haunting
memory of that nearly perfect 2007 season destroyed on the very field of
University of Phoenix Stadium will be too much for the banged-up Seahawks to
overcome, despite Brady’s flu and the fear it spreads to Gronkowski. The
Seattle Seahawks are one of the best teams we’ve seen in the past few years;
the New England Patriots are one of the best teams we’ve seen over the past fourteen years. Brady is far too hungry
and the Patriots far too angry over DeflateGate,
SpyGate, PlaceWordHereGate, and related nonsense, as well as their past
Super Bowl failures to let this one slide.
Check back following Super Bowl XLIX for the Week 21 #NFL Game Predictions
(w/ spreads & analysis) SUPER BOWL EDITION review at ProFootballMedia.com!
2014 Playoff results (through
Championship round): 7-3 wins (.700); 7-3 v. spread (.700)
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