The St. Louis Rams are the hottest team in the NFL...if we're going on the past two weeks.
Week 15: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 15 results (season): 12-4 wins (149-73-1
.668); 8-8 v. spread (105-117-1 .470)
Week 15 Notes: As the regular season begins to wind down predicting the
outcome of any given game is more common sense than statistical analysis. Some
teams are already in the playoffs and are simply waiting to see where they fall;
several teams are in the hunt, including six 7-6 teams, and have crucial
matchups this week. The AFC North could have three teams with winning records shut
out of the playoffs, while the NFC South will crown a team with a losing
record. Such is the NFL, the league of parity. Speaking of the AFC North, the
Bengals v. Browns game features the only two teams that have “tied” their games
so far this season (CIN: 22-22; CLE: 21-21).
Game(s) of the Week: PHI v. DAL; DEN
v. SD; SF v. SEA
Dud(s) of the Week: NYJ v. TEN; WAS
v. NYG
Arizona Cardinals 10-3
(+5.5)
@ St. Louis Rams 6-7 (40.5): Rams
24-20 Cardinals 12-6
Thursday, 8:25 PM, Edward
Jones Dome, St. Louis, MO (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: The St. Louis Rams have won straight,
by way of shutout no less, while the Arizona Cardinals were in danger of losing
their third straight last week v. the
Kansas City Chiefs. One could almost argue these are two teams trending in
opposite directions, but the Cardinals remain 10-3, tied for the best record in
the NFL. Neither team scores many points, but neither gives up many points.
Both defenses are also very efficient, ranking near or within the top-10 in 3rd-down
percentage and first downs allowed. All of these statistics on display on a
Thursday Night game should conspire to produce a low-scoring game, but I’m not
sure if one of these Thursday Night games has gone to plan yet. The Rams are on
a serious roll on defense, the offense is running smoother with Shaun Hill at
quarterback, and the Rams are at home, the latter being the biggest difference this
week.
The clash of two great defenses on the National
stage was too much for Tre Mason and the Rams, as a costly fumble stifled any
Rams’ momentum. They never got it back. The Rams’ two-game shut out of their
previous (inferior) opponents came to end and allowed the Cardinals to stay
ahead in the NFC West.
Miami Dolphins 7-6 (+7.5) @ New England Patriots 10-3 (48): Patriots 28-20 Patriots
41-13
Sunday, 1 PM, Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny, low 40s)
Reasons: The Patriots
have won 38 straight games at home v.
AFC opponents, and the Dolphins stole a win from New England Week 1, so Miami
better bring its A+ game if it stands any chance of beating the team with the
best record, highest point differential, that ranks in the top-10 in both
offense and scoring defense, and a +10 turnover ratio. With a banged up
defense, Miami is going to have their work cut out for them. If New England
wins it’ll be their 77th straight AFC East title.
Mike Wallace pulled in an incredible TD catch
as the first half came to a close, making a 14-6 game 14-13 at the half. For a
few minutes the Miami Dolphins were in the game. Then the second half came…27-0.
The New England Patriots won the AFC East with the win…again.
Pittsburgh Steelers 8-5 (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 5-8 (55.5): Steelers 28-27 Steelers 27-20
Sunday, 1 PM, Georgia Dome,
Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Despite having
opposite records, both teams are fighting for division titles heading into Week
15. The problem here is Atlanta has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, and
more accurately simply one of the worst defenses period, and the Steelers are as hot a team offensively as anyone.
The Falcons are no good at home this year either, which would have been their
saving grace in years’ past.
This game turned out exactly the way I thought
it would, making a quagmire out of the AFC North with only two weeks left.
Washington Natives 3-10 (+6.5) @ New York Giants 4-9 (47): Giants 24-21 Giants 24-13
Sunday, 1 PM, MetLife Stadium,
East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny, low
40s)
Reasons: Both of these NFC
East teams turn the ball over a ton, have negative point differentials, and
combine for seven wins through 15 weeks. That means both teams combine for less than a half win per
week - perhaps a silly statistic, but worth mentioning so that you won’t waste
any of your time watching it.
In the battle to see who will finish last in
the NFC East, the Natives prevailed, but not before Santana Moss was ejected
for pretending to care about RGIII and arguing the right call on the field.
Oakland Raiders 2-11 (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs 7-6 (41.5): Chiefs 24-17 Chiefs
31-13
Sunday, 1 PM, Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, MO (Weather: 20% rain; high
50s)
Reasons: These two teams
are trending in opposite directions, but it only makes a difference for one of
these teams, losers of three straight games after seemingly being in control of
the AFC West one month ago at 7-3. The Raiders may have won two in a row, but
let’s get real. The Chiefs are desperate and still have far more talent to let
this game slip away at home.
Vegas had this one right, as the Raiders were suddenly
high on themselves after winning two straight and the Chiefs were desperate to
win and keep pace with the AFC Wild Card after leading he AFC West only a few
weeks ago.
Houston Texans 7-6 (+6.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 9-4 (49): Colts 28-24 Colts
17-10
Sunday, 1 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium,
Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: A great AFC
South battle between a rising Texans team and the probably division winner,
this matchup also features the best defensive player in the league (JJ Watt) and the future of the NFL (Andrew Luck). A back and forth series
over the past few years, the Texans will be looking to avenge their 33-28 Week
6 loss as Watt tries to steal the show, and the ball, for Luck and the pesky TY
Hilton, who’s crushed the Texans.
The Texans were down to their 3rd-string
QB, and it seemed more like their emergency QB, but they brought the right effort
and nearly beat the Colts on their home field. Instead, the Colts squeaked by and
won yet another AFC South title, easily the worst division in the AFC.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-11 (+13.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 8-5 (45): Ravens 27-17 Ravens
20-12
Sunday, 1 PM, M&T Bank
Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny, mid-40s)
Reasons: The Jaguars
stand no chance against the top-10 Ravens (Scoring:
offense – 6th; defense – 7th), who are looking to
keep pace in a stacked AFC North, as the Jaguars are not only one of the worst NFL
teams statistically, they also fail the eye test miserably.
Suddenly the Jaguars are testing people, and
right on time. The Ravens barely beat one of the four laughingstocks of the
NFL, but managed to keep pace in the clogged AFC North.
Green Bay Packers 10-3 (-4.5) @ Buffalo Bills 7-6 (50.5): Packers 24-20 Bills 21-13
Sunday, 1 PM, Ralph Wilson
Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Drizzle;
high 30s)
Reasons: What an
incredible game on paper. The Packers are possibly the hottest team in the NFL,
winners of five straight, including a close win over the New England Patriots,
while the Bills could be the most underrated team in the league. The Packers
come into Buffalo the top-ranked offense, but the Bills are no joke
defensively, ranking in the top-10 in most defensive categories. Normally I’d
give the nod to Aaron Rodgers against any stout defense, especially one without
an offense, but the Packers are not the same team away from Lambeau Field, and
the Bills are…well, 3-3 at home (4-3
technically, but one game occurred in Detroit). The Bills test Rodgers, but
not quite enough.
I wanted to pick the Bills in this game so bad,
and I’m ashamed I didn’t. The Packers are like Jekyll-and-Hyde home and away,
and playing the Bills in Buffalo is no joke, especially in December. The Bills
had a few chances to give it away, but held Aaron Rodgers to one of his worst
career games, and stayed alive in the AFC Wild Card race.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-11 (+3) @ Carolina Panthers 4-8-1 (41.5): Panthers 27-21 Panthers
19-17
Sunday, 1 PM, B of A Stadium,
Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny, low 60s)
Reasons: Now’s the time
for the Carolina Panthers to take control of their season, and the NFC South,
by beating the hapless Bucs at home. No Cam Newton you say? No problem, as not
only does Derek Anderson slide into this offense seamlessly, he started Week 1
and had a 21-0 lead halfway through the fourth quarter – against these Buccaneers. The Panthers have not
given their fans any reason to hope so far, but if there were a time it would
be now. Following a 41-10 drumming of the New Orleans Saints at home to keep
pace in the NFC South, how terrible would it be to drop this game at home…
Derek Anderson is now 2-0 this season backing
up embattled Cam Newton, and although both wins came against the hapless
Buccaneers, the win puts Carolina in a unique position to win their division
with a losing record.
Cincinnati Bengals 8-4-1 (+1`) @ Cleveland Browns 7-6 (44): Browns 21-20 Bengals 30-0
Sunday, 1 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Foggy, low 40s)
Reasons: As I mentioned
in the opening notes these two teams “tie” their respective games, the only two
teams in the NFL that do so. The Browns won 24-3 Week 10, and that was at Cincinnati, which begs the question:
What the hell is Jeremy Hill talking about? Hill provided plenty of bulletin
material for the Browns defense, but the Browns’ offense will be the question,
as Johnny Football makes his first NFL start. I know I wouldn’t want my first
NFL start to come against a division rival with a good defense.
The only person looking worse than me after my
21-20 Browns’ win call was Johnny Football, who had one of the worst 1st
start performances in NFL history, as well as one of the worst 1st starts
by a Heisman-winning QB. The Bengals, on the other hand, backed up the trash
talk and took charge of the AFC North…by a slim margin.
New York Jets 2-11 (-3) @ Tennessee
Titans 2-11 (42):
Jets 24-21 Jets
16-11
Sunday, 4:05 PM, LP Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Drizzle; mid-50s)
Reasons: It’s been called
the Marcus Mariota Bowl. One of these teams will end up with the
Heisman-winning Oregon quarterback. I call it The Bowel Bowl. That is because these
two teams are absolutely awful. A few statistics: The highest rank any of these
two teams achieve for yardage or scoring is 27th. Both teams average
17 ppg and are fighting for 30th place in the league. The best point
differential of the two teams (per game)
is -10. The best turnover ratio of either team is -8. Notice I never said which
team boasts such lofty metrics? It’s because it doesn’t even matter. The best
part of this game could be the weather, and it’s supposed to rain.
The Jets actually almost lost this game on some
final-seconds antics by the Titans (and ruined by Delanie Walker), alas they
didn’t, and avoided the awkward preseason camp moment when Geno Smith realizes
he’s losing his franchise QB position to another supposed franchise QB
(Winston) just a few years after he was drafted for it, after replacing another
supposed franchise QB (Sanchez). I’m glad I’m not jets fan.
Denver Broncos 10-3 (-4.5) @ San
Diego Chargers 8-5 (51): Broncos
27-24 Broncos 22-10
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Reasons: The Broncos will
be looking to avenge their Week 8 loss to the Chargers at Denver by traveling to San Diego. In most other cases that
would be bad news for Denver, if San Diego weren’t on their 5th center
this season, and if two of Denver’s three losses were to Seattle and New England…on the road. The
Chargers have the talent, and it’s tough to bet against Phillip Rivers, but
Denver is too talented and they’re on a mission to get home field over New
England.
The Broncos won, but didn’t really inspire fans
into thinking they’re in Championship mode. Peyton manning looked pedestrian
(again), which could be part saving for playoffs, part old, and was blasted on
a block attempt, sending him to the training room. The Broncos’ run game is
vastly improved, which could play out in the long run, but they won’t beat New
England on the road with this style. The Chargers fought hard, but ultimately are
too banged up to keep pace, and probably punched their ticket home at the end
of the season.
Minnesota Vikings 6-7
(+7.5)
@ Detroit Lions 9-4 (42): Lions
24-20 Lions 16-14
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: This is one of
those games the Lions shouldn’t lose, which means they probably will because
they need to win given their race
with the Green bay Packers in the NFC North and the Vikings one saving grace is
their defense. Despite my cynicism, one has to think the Lions beat the Vikings
if they’re trying to convince anyone they belong in any playoff conversation.
Holy crap, the Lions almost lost this game. There is no way
this Lions’ team makes a playoff run the way they’re playing…if they even make
the playoffs.
San Francisco 49ers
7-6 (+9.5)
@ Seattle Seahawks 9-4 (38): Seahawks
24-20 Seahawks 17-7
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Century Link Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Sunny, low 40s)
Reasons: Ten points??? I
don’t care where the game is, how well the Seahawks are playing, and how badly the 49ers offense is playing, a
ten-point spread for this NFC West matchup against the two teams that played
the real Super Bowl 11 months ago is
an insult. Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers have never been more than seven-point
underdogs, which tells you just how good the Seahawks defense is playing right
now, and how badly the 49ers and
Colin Kaepernick are playing. Here’s what people are forgetting: the Seahawks
offense is mediocre at best and the
49ers defense balls. Yes the Seahawks win, but not by 10 points…more like four.
A terrible roughing the passer penalty on
Russell Wilson extended a drive that allowed the Seahawks to score a TD instead
of a FG, which destroyed any chance of the 49ers making a comeback. The win
makes Seattle the favorites to win the NFC again, and the loss send the 49ers
in reeling mode, as they could be a completely different team come next season.
Dallas Cowboys 9-4 (+3.5) @ Philadelphia
Eagles 9-4 (55):
Eagles 28-24 Cowboys
38-27
Sunday, 8:30 PM, Lincoln Financial Fld., Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Cloudy, low 30s)
Reasons: What a great
rematch of the recent game between these two teams on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys
were embarrassed in that game 33-10, which led most to believe it was the
beginning of the Cowboys’ annual December swoon, but it was more a case of
being at home, where the Cowboys are mysteriously terrible. The Cowboys are
great on the road though, but you’re crazy if you think the Cowboys would go
8-0 on the road, which would be the case if they beat the Eagles. Oh sorry,
they’d have to beat the Natives, too, Week 17 (cough). This game is everything a football fan could hope for, and
falls right in line with the epic end-of-the-year NFC East battles we’ve grown
accustomed to over the years. Unfortunately for Cowboys fans the Eagles are too
good, and Chip Kelly too good a coach to let The Accident Waiting To Happen prevail.
The Cowboys went up 21-0 before squandering the
lead to the Eagles, ultimately winning the game and taking one step closer to
winning the NFC East. The Eagles are in trouble, as they could become only the
third team in NFL history to miss the playoffs at 11-5.
New Orleans Saints
5-8 (-3)
@ Chicago Bears 5-8 (54): Saints
27-24 Saints 31-15
Monday, 8:30 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: 80% rain; low 40s)
Reasons: A rather strange
game to call, the Saints would usually be doomed on the road in the pouring
rain, but these new look Bears can’t play defense and have no home field
advantage these days, unless you consider hearing boos an advantage. The Saints
have only played three games outside this year, but they’re surprisingly 2-1,
and against teams with capable defenses (CLE-CAR-PIT).
The Bears are reeling like never before, and now are without Brandon Marshall,
which makes Jay Cutler’s tumultuous season even more uncomfortable. It won’t be
pretty, but has anything the Saints have done in the ugliest division in
football been pretty?
The Saints beat up on the sinking Bears and
took control of the NFC South by a half game…with a 6-8 record. All four NFC
South teams have negative point differentials, the only division with more than
two.
Check back Thursday and again Sunday for Week 16: #NFL Game Predictions
(w/ spreads & NO analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!
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