This is a website dedicated to pro football, football betting & Phish. All website content property of Faulkner Media unless otherwise stated.

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Tuesday's Gone: Week 15 #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)


 The St. Louis Rams are the hottest team in the NFL...if we're going on the past two weeks.

Week 15: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 15 results (season): 12-4 wins (149-73-1 .668); 8-8 v. spread (105-117-1 .470)

Week 15 Notes: As the regular season begins to wind down predicting the outcome of any given game is more common sense than statistical analysis. Some teams are already in the playoffs and are simply waiting to see where they fall; several teams are in the hunt, including six 7-6 teams, and have crucial matchups this week. The AFC North could have three teams with winning records shut out of the playoffs, while the NFC South will crown a team with a losing record. Such is the NFL, the league of parity. Speaking of the AFC North, the Bengals v. Browns game features the only two teams that have “tied” their games so far this season (CIN: 22-22; CLE: 21-21).

Game(s) of the Week: PHI v. DAL; DEN v. SD; SF v. SEA

Dud(s) of the Week: NYJ v. TEN; WAS v. NYG

Arizona Cardinals 10-3 (+5.5) @ St. Louis Rams 6-7 (40.5): Rams 24-20 Cardinals 12-6
Thursday, 8:25 PM, Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, MO (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The St. Louis Rams have won straight, by way of shutout no less, while the Arizona Cardinals were in danger of losing their third straight last week v. the Kansas City Chiefs. One could almost argue these are two teams trending in opposite directions, but the Cardinals remain 10-3, tied for the best record in the NFL. Neither team scores many points, but neither gives up many points. Both defenses are also very efficient, ranking near or within the top-10 in 3rd-down percentage and first downs allowed. All of these statistics on display on a Thursday Night game should conspire to produce a low-scoring game, but I’m not sure if one of these Thursday Night games has gone to plan yet. The Rams are on a serious roll on defense, the offense is running smoother with Shaun Hill at quarterback, and the Rams are at home, the latter being the biggest difference this week.

The clash of two great defenses on the National stage was too much for Tre Mason and the Rams, as a costly fumble stifled any Rams’ momentum. They never got it back. The Rams’ two-game shut out of their previous (inferior) opponents came to end and allowed the Cardinals to stay ahead in the NFC West.

Miami Dolphins 7-6 (+7.5) @ New England Patriots 10-3 (48): Patriots 28-20 Patriots 41-13
Sunday, 1 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny, low 40s)

Reasons: The Patriots have won 38 straight games at home v. AFC opponents, and the Dolphins stole a win from New England Week 1, so Miami better bring its A+ game if it stands any chance of beating the team with the best record, highest point differential, that ranks in the top-10 in both offense and scoring defense, and a +10 turnover ratio. With a banged up defense, Miami is going to have their work cut out for them. If New England wins it’ll be their 77th straight AFC East title.

Mike Wallace pulled in an incredible TD catch as the first half came to a close, making a 14-6 game 14-13 at the half. For a few minutes the Miami Dolphins were in the game. Then the second half came…27-0. The New England Patriots won the AFC East with the win…again.

Pittsburgh Steelers 8-5 (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 5-8 (55.5): Steelers 28-27 Steelers 27-20
Sunday, 1 PM, Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: Despite having opposite records, both teams are fighting for division titles heading into Week 15. The problem here is Atlanta has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, and more accurately simply one of the worst defenses period, and the Steelers are as hot a team offensively as anyone. The Falcons are no good at home this year either, which would have been their saving grace in years’ past.

This game turned out exactly the way I thought it would, making a quagmire out of the AFC North with only two weeks left.

Washington Natives 3-10 (+6.5) @ New York Giants 4-9 (47): Giants 24-21 Giants 24-13
Sunday, 1 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny, low 40s)

Reasons: Both of these NFC East teams turn the ball over a ton, have negative point differentials, and combine for seven wins through 15 weeks. That means both teams combine for less than a half win per week - perhaps a silly statistic, but worth mentioning so that you won’t waste any of your time watching it.

In the battle to see who will finish last in the NFC East, the Natives prevailed, but not before Santana Moss was ejected for pretending to care about RGIII and arguing the right call on the field.

Oakland Raiders 2-11 (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs 7-6 (41.5): Chiefs 24-17 Chiefs 31-13
Sunday, 1 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: 20% rain; high 50s)

Reasons: These two teams are trending in opposite directions, but it only makes a difference for one of these teams, losers of three straight games after seemingly being in control of the AFC West one month ago at 7-3. The Raiders may have won two in a row, but let’s get real. The Chiefs are desperate and still have far more talent to let this game slip away at home.

Vegas had this one right, as the Raiders were suddenly high on themselves after winning two straight and the Chiefs were desperate to win and keep pace with the AFC Wild Card after leading he AFC West only a few weeks ago.

Houston Texans 7-6 (+6.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 9-4 (49): Colts 28-24 Colts 17-10
Sunday, 1 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: A great AFC South battle between a rising Texans team and the probably division winner, this matchup also features the best defensive player in the league (JJ Watt) and the future of the NFL (Andrew Luck). A back and forth series over the past few years, the Texans will be looking to avenge their 33-28 Week 6 loss as Watt tries to steal the show, and the ball, for Luck and the pesky TY Hilton, who’s crushed the Texans.

The Texans were down to their 3rd-string QB, and it seemed more like their emergency QB, but they brought the right effort and nearly beat the Colts on their home field. Instead, the Colts squeaked by and won yet another AFC South title, easily the worst division in the AFC.

Jacksonville Jaguars 2-11 (+13.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 8-5 (45): Ravens 27-17 Ravens 20-12
Sunday, 1 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny, mid-40s)

Reasons: The Jaguars stand no chance against the top-10 Ravens (Scoring: offense – 6th; defense – 7th), who are looking to keep pace in a stacked AFC North, as the Jaguars are not only one of the worst NFL teams statistically, they also fail the eye test miserably.

Suddenly the Jaguars are testing people, and right on time. The Ravens barely beat one of the four laughingstocks of the NFL, but managed to keep pace in the clogged AFC North.

Green Bay Packers 10-3 (-4.5) @ Buffalo Bills 7-6 (50.5): Packers 24-20 Bills 21-13
Sunday, 1 PM, Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Drizzle; high 30s)

Reasons: What an incredible game on paper. The Packers are possibly the hottest team in the NFL, winners of five straight, including a close win over the New England Patriots, while the Bills could be the most underrated team in the league. The Packers come into Buffalo the top-ranked offense, but the Bills are no joke defensively, ranking in the top-10 in most defensive categories. Normally I’d give the nod to Aaron Rodgers against any stout defense, especially one without an offense, but the Packers are not the same team away from Lambeau Field, and the Bills are…well, 3-3 at home (4-3 technically, but one game occurred in Detroit). The Bills test Rodgers, but not quite enough.

I wanted to pick the Bills in this game so bad, and I’m ashamed I didn’t. The Packers are like Jekyll-and-Hyde home and away, and playing the Bills in Buffalo is no joke, especially in December. The Bills had a few chances to give it away, but held Aaron Rodgers to one of his worst career games, and stayed alive in the AFC Wild Card race.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-11 (+3) @ Carolina Panthers 4-8-1 (41.5): Panthers 27-21 Panthers 19-17
Sunday, 1 PM, B of A Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny, low 60s)

Reasons: Now’s the time for the Carolina Panthers to take control of their season, and the NFC South, by beating the hapless Bucs at home. No Cam Newton you say? No problem, as not only does Derek Anderson slide into this offense seamlessly, he started Week 1 and had a 21-0 lead halfway through the fourth quarter – against these Buccaneers. The Panthers have not given their fans any reason to hope so far, but if there were a time it would be now. Following a 41-10 drumming of the New Orleans Saints at home to keep pace in the NFC South, how terrible would it be to drop this game at home…

Derek Anderson is now 2-0 this season backing up embattled Cam Newton, and although both wins came against the hapless Buccaneers, the win puts Carolina in a unique position to win their division with a losing record.

Cincinnati Bengals 8-4-1 (+1`) @ Cleveland Browns 7-6 (44): Browns 21-20 Bengals 30-0
Sunday, 1 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Foggy, low 40s)

Reasons: As I mentioned in the opening notes these two teams “tie” their respective games, the only two teams in the NFL that do so. The Browns won 24-3 Week 10, and that was at Cincinnati, which begs the question: What the hell is Jeremy Hill talking about? Hill provided plenty of bulletin material for the Browns defense, but the Browns’ offense will be the question, as Johnny Football makes his first NFL start. I know I wouldn’t want my first NFL start to come against a division rival with a good defense.

The only person looking worse than me after my 21-20 Browns’ win call was Johnny Football, who had one of the worst 1st start performances in NFL history, as well as one of the worst 1st starts by a Heisman-winning QB. The Bengals, on the other hand, backed up the trash talk and took charge of the AFC North…by a slim margin.

New York Jets 2-11 (-3) @ Tennessee Titans 2-11 (42): Jets 24-21 Jets 16-11
Sunday, 4:05 PM, LP Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Drizzle; mid-50s)

Reasons: It’s been called the Marcus Mariota Bowl. One of these teams will end up with the Heisman-winning Oregon quarterback. I call it The Bowel Bowl. That is because these two teams are absolutely awful. A few statistics: The highest rank any of these two teams achieve for yardage or scoring is 27th. Both teams average 17 ppg and are fighting for 30th place in the league. The best point differential of the two teams (per game) is -10. The best turnover ratio of either team is -8. Notice I never said which team boasts such lofty metrics? It’s because it doesn’t even matter. The best part of this game could be the weather, and it’s supposed to rain.

The Jets actually almost lost this game on some final-seconds antics by the Titans (and ruined by Delanie Walker), alas they didn’t, and avoided the awkward preseason camp moment when Geno Smith realizes he’s losing his franchise QB position to another supposed franchise QB (Winston) just a few years after he was drafted for it, after replacing another supposed franchise QB (Sanchez). I’m glad I’m not  jets fan.

Denver Broncos 10-3 (-4.5) @ San Diego Chargers 8-5 (51): Broncos 27-24 Broncos 22-10
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)

Reasons: The Broncos will be looking to avenge their Week 8 loss to the Chargers at Denver by traveling to San Diego. In most other cases that would be bad news for Denver, if San Diego weren’t on their 5th center this season, and if two of Denver’s three losses were to Seattle and New England…on the road. The Chargers have the talent, and it’s tough to bet against Phillip Rivers, but Denver is too talented and they’re on a mission to get home field over New England.

The Broncos won, but didn’t really inspire fans into thinking they’re in Championship mode. Peyton manning looked pedestrian (again), which could be part saving for playoffs, part old, and was blasted on a block attempt, sending him to the training room. The Broncos’ run game is vastly improved, which could play out in the long run, but they won’t beat New England on the road with this style. The Chargers fought hard, but ultimately are too banged up to keep pace, and probably punched their ticket home at the end of the season.

Minnesota Vikings 6-7 (+7.5) @ Detroit Lions 9-4 (42): Lions 24-20 Lions 16-14
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: This is one of those games the Lions shouldn’t lose, which means they probably will because they need to win given their race with the Green bay Packers in the NFC North and the Vikings one saving grace is their defense. Despite my cynicism, one has to think the Lions beat the Vikings if they’re trying to convince anyone they belong in any playoff conversation.

Holy crap, the Lions almost lost this game. There is no way this Lions’ team makes a playoff run the way they’re playing…if they even make the playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers 7-6 (+9.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 9-4 (38): Seahawks 24-20 Seahawks 17-7
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Century Link Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Sunny, low 40s)

Reasons: Ten points??? I don’t care where the game is, how well the Seahawks are playing, and how badly the 49ers offense is playing, a ten-point spread for this NFC West matchup against the two teams that played the real Super Bowl 11 months ago is an insult. Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers have never been more than seven-point underdogs, which tells you just how good the Seahawks defense is playing right now, and how badly the 49ers and Colin Kaepernick are playing. Here’s what people are forgetting: the Seahawks offense is mediocre at best and the 49ers defense balls. Yes the Seahawks win, but not by 10 points…more like four.

A terrible roughing the passer penalty on Russell Wilson extended a drive that allowed the Seahawks to score a TD instead of a FG, which destroyed any chance of the 49ers making a comeback. The win makes Seattle the favorites to win the NFC again, and the loss send the 49ers in reeling mode, as they could be a completely different team come next season.

Dallas Cowboys 9-4 (+3.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 9-4 (55): Eagles 28-24 Cowboys 38-27
Sunday, 8:30 PM, Lincoln Financial Fld., Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Cloudy, low 30s)

Reasons: What a great rematch of the recent game between these two teams on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys were embarrassed in that game 33-10, which led most to believe it was the beginning of the Cowboys’ annual December swoon, but it was more a case of being at home, where the Cowboys are mysteriously terrible. The Cowboys are great on the road though, but you’re crazy if you think the Cowboys would go 8-0 on the road, which would be the case if they beat the Eagles. Oh sorry, they’d have to beat the Natives, too, Week 17 (cough). This game is everything a football fan could hope for, and falls right in line with the epic end-of-the-year NFC East battles we’ve grown accustomed to over the years. Unfortunately for Cowboys fans the Eagles are too good, and Chip Kelly too good a coach to let The Accident Waiting To Happen prevail.

The Cowboys went up 21-0 before squandering the lead to the Eagles, ultimately winning the game and taking one step closer to winning the NFC East. The Eagles are in trouble, as they could become only the third team in NFL history to miss the playoffs at 11-5.

New Orleans Saints 5-8 (-3) @ Chicago Bears 5-8 (54): Saints 27-24 Saints 31-15
Monday, 8:30 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: 80% rain; low 40s)

Reasons: A rather strange game to call, the Saints would usually be doomed on the road in the pouring rain, but these new look Bears can’t play defense and have no home field advantage these days, unless you consider hearing boos an advantage. The Saints have only played three games outside this year, but they’re surprisingly 2-1, and against teams with capable defenses (CLE-CAR-PIT). The Bears are reeling like never before, and now are without Brandon Marshall, which makes Jay Cutler’s tumultuous season even more uncomfortable. It won’t be pretty, but has anything the Saints have done in the ugliest division in football been pretty?

The Saints beat up on the sinking Bears and took control of the NFC South by a half game…with a 6-8 record. All four NFC South teams have negative point differentials, the only division with more than two.

Check back Thursday and again Sunday for Week 16: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & NO analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!



No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.