Think before you snicker at this week's Thursday Night Football match up - the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins have two of the best defenses in the NFL.
Week 11: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 11
results (season): 8-6 wins (107-53-1 .665); 6-8 v. spread (70-90-1 .435)
Buffalo Bills 5-4 (+5.5) @
Miami Dolphins 5-4 (42): Dolphins
23-20 Dolphins 22-9
Thursday, 8:25 PM, Sun Life
Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 20% rain;
low 70s)
Reasons: A quick glance
at the schedule this Thursday night might cause a few eye rolls, but those eyes
wouldn’t belong to football fans, because this AFC East divisional battle – and
it is a battle – will be between two
top-ten defense coming off bitter losses to great teams. The Dolphins were the
victims of a Matt Stafford TD pass with 29 seconds left and lost 20-16 to the
Detroit Lions and the Bills squandered several late 4th-quarter
chances to eventually lose to the Kansas City Chiefs 17-13. The Dolphins are
the NFL’s 7th-ranked rushing team - besides that these two teams
have mediocre offenses at best. Defensively, it’s a different story: The
Dolphins come in with the 2nd-ranked run defense, the 10th-ranked
pass defense, and the allow the 5th-fewest points per game (19.0); the Bills enter the game with the
7th-ranked run defense, the 8th-ranked pass defense, and
allow the 7th-fewest points per game (20.2). Consider the injuries at key positions (Questionable: BUF – Fred
Jackson; MIA – Ryan Tannehill & Charles Clay), the weather, and the
defenses involved, and I’d settle in for a low-scoring defensive battle. Then
again, it’s Thursday night…who the hell knows what’s going to happen. I do know
I wouldn’t give the Dolphins 5.5 points against this Buffalo front four with a
questionable Tannehill.
The Bills held a 9-3 lead into the 3rd
quarter, thanks in part to a Ryan Tannehill fumble, but Tannehill 240 passing
yards; 2 TDs) and the Dolphins roared back, scoring 19 unanswered points
through the end of the 3rd quarter through the 4th. The
Dolphins held the Bills to 240 yards and 13 first downs, while sacking Kyle
Orton twice (Earl Mitchell; Olivier Vernon). The Bills defense also got after
it, sacking Tannehill five times (Mario Williams 3.5; Stefan Charles; Corbin
Bryant 0.5), but it wasn’t enough to withstand the 4th-quarter offensive
onslaught, something the Bills never accomplished.
Atlanta Falcons 2-6 (+1) @ Carolina Panthers 3-6-1 (47): Panthers 24-23 Falcons
19-17
Sunday, 1 PM, B of A Stadium,
Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny, low 50s)
Reasons: Does it even
matter the Panthers are home? In one of the dud games of the week, these are
two of the worst teams in the league, both with the eye test and statistically. Harry Douglas and
Devin Hester are both questionable, but so is Charles Johnson for Carolina,
essentially washing the injury advantage. Based on play I’d pick Atlanta by the
point the Sharps gave Carolina, but the Panthers are home and as desperate as
they’ve ever been in the Cam Newton era.
Carolina was down 16-3 with 11 minutes left in
the game, then led 17-16 with just over six minutes left in the game on two Cam
Newton TD passes (Kelvin Benjamin; Philly Brown). Atlanta then drove 54 yards
down the field for over four minutes on 12 plays and kicked the go-ahead FG,
before Gano missed a 47-yard go-ahead FG in, then had last-second 63-yard attempt
blocked. It’s almost as if Newton got the late news that Carolina actually had
a chance to lead the NFC South with a win, and kicked it into gear, but it wasn’t
enough in the end. So basically the Panthers should have won 20-19…but they
didn’t.
Minnesota Vikings 4-5 (+3) @ Chicago Bears 3-6 (46.5): Vikings 24-21 Bears 21-13
Sunday, 1 PM, Solider Field,
Chicago, IL (Weather: 30% snow, mid-30s)
Reasons: Two duds in a
row. This game could be worse then ATL v. CAR, and it’s forecasted to snow. The
worst defense in the NFL plays one of the worst offenses in the NFL (although MIN has the 10th-ranked
running game) with a rookie QB in inclement weather. The one bright spot in this
match up is Minnesota’s defense, which is a pretty good unit. That will be the
difference.
I called Bears score, and that’s about it. Well,
I guess you could say I also predicted Teddy Bridgewater’s poor play, but I
still expected more than 156 passing yards with a 5.6 yards per attempt
average; Bridgewater also threw an INT (1 TD). The Bears’ defense held the
Vikings to 248 yards and only 10 first downs (2-11 3rd down), but
the Vikings defense, the astronomically better unit, gave up 468 yards to the
desperate Bears, who had their best game in weeks. Jay Cutler threw for 330
yards and 3 TDs (2 INTs), mostly to Alshone Jeffery (11 of 17 targets for 135
yards and a TD) and Brandon Marshall (7 of 10 targets for 90 yards and 2 TDs). Matt
Forte even got involved and rushed for 117 yards and 2 TDs on 26 carries (4.5
ypc).
Houston Texans 4-5 (+3) @ Cleveland Browns 6-3 (41): Browns 24-21 Texans 23-7
Sunday, 1 PM, FirstEnergy
Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 30% snow, mid-30s)
Reasons: Both of these
teams boast good defenses (Scoring
defense: HOU – 11th; CLE –
6th), and respectable offenses (Scoring offense: HOU – 16th; CLE – 15th).
Both teams also cause many turnovers (HOU
- +7; CLE - +9), and despite the Texans losing record, both teams have
positive point differentials. The difference here could be injuries as both
teams could be missing key players, but Cleveland is simply the better team.
The Texans surprised everyone outside of
Houston and not only beat the Browns, but JJ Watt also caught a TD pass. Watt
also sacked Brian Hoyer and recovered a fumble, furthering his case for league Defensive
Player of the Year, if not MVP.
Seattle Seahawks 6-3 (+2) @ Kansas City Chiefs 6-3 (42): Chiefs 21-20 Chiefs
24-20
Sunday, 1 PM, Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, MO (Weather: 20% snow, high
20s)
Reasons: Finally, an
unbelievable match up. The Seahawks are getting
two on the road, which speaks volume about the Chiefs play this season…and the
Seahawks fall. Although only from the first story, Seattle has fallen off from
their dominant selves, via free agency and attrition, and Kansas City is
serious team with a serious coaching staff, something the Seahawks lack. Ok,
Pete Carroll is plenty serious, just Cali-relaxed, which won’t play well in the
snow v. the Kool Aid man. This game
will be relegated to the ground for Seattle, as they have the top-ranked
running game v. the Chiefs’ 20th-ranked
run defense, and also because the Seahawks have one of the worst passing games
(30th) and the Chiefs ball
on the pass (1st). Beast
Mode won’t be enough Sunday.
Both teams went wild running the ball (SEA –
204; KC – 190), Seattle held the ball nearly 12 more minutes, held Alex Smith
to 102 passing yards, and forced two fumbles, yet the Chiefs came away with the
win and are right up there with the Cardinals and Patriots as the best team in
the NFL. Jamal Charles scored 3 TDs and Kniles Davis scored another as the
Chiefs literally ran all over the Seahawks. For the record, I called Seahawks
score.
Cincinnati Bengals 5-3-1 (+7) @ New Orleans Saints 4-5 (50.5): Saints 27-24 Bengals
27-10
Sunday, 1 PM, Mercedes-Benz
Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: Seven points?
I’m not sure about that, but I sure about a Saint’s win. The Bengals once
top-ranked defense has fallen to average, and the Saints’ offense is rolling,
ranking 3rd (pass offense),
6th (run offense), and 6th
(scoring offense) in three of the
major offensive metrics. The Bengals are average, statistically, for a 5-3-1
team, but they’ll be missing several key guys on defense, and the Saints’ are
home, which is usually a pretty simple indicator of a Saint’s win.
Just when people thought the Saints might run
away with the NFC South they lose at home. Huh? Nothing really sticks out in
this game statistically, other than the Saints’ anemic running game, which
allowed the Bengals to focus on Jimmy Graham and take him out of the game (3
receptions on only 3 targets). The Bengals offense bounced back nicely after
one of their worst statistical performances in their long history last week,
with Andy Dalton (3 TDs), AJ Green (6 of 8 targets, 127 yards, 1 TD) and Jeremy
Hill (152 yards on 27 carries) all shining.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-8 (+7) @ Washington Natives 3-6 (45.5): Natives 24-21 Buccaneers
27-7
Sunday, 1 PM, FedEx Field,
Landover, MD (Weather: Sunny, high 40s)
Reasons: Sigh. The
Natives are one of those teams that can fool you into making poor prediction
decisions, because statistically, they’re still riding the insane passing
metrics that Kirk Cousins put up before he was benched for Colt McCoy. Yeah.
Now RGIII is back, and it’s hard to believe, but that doesn’t mean anything.
This could be another defensive battle, as both teams have good defenses (statistically), and turnovers will be an
issue (TB: -9; WAS: -7).
Wow, are things awful in Washington. The
politics are in rough shape, too. RGIII continues to play poorly and then
follow it up with and even poorer performance at the post-game conference. RGIII
was sacked six times and threw two INTs (1 TD), although he rushed for another
41 yards on six carries. The Buccaneers are one of the worst teams in the
league and the destroyed the Natives, at least on the scoreboard. It’s that
bad. But then again, it’s always been this bad.
Denver Broncos 7-2 (-9.5) @ St. Louis Rams 3-6 (51): Broncos 27-21 Rams 22-7
Sunday, 1 PM, Edward Jones Dome,
St. Louis, MO (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Don’t sleep on
the Rams. St. Louis hasn’t played a dud opponent since Week 2 (DAL, PHI, SF, SEA, KC, SF, ARZ), and
they managed to beat the Seahawks at home and the 49ers on the road. You’d
never know it statistically – the Rams are awful on paper, ranking in the
bottom-five of most metrics, save pass defense (ranked 13th). Well, what do you know? I think Denver
passes a bunch. Before I get carried away, the Broncos are one of the best
complete teams in the NFL, but I’m here to analyze the games AND the spreads. The Broncos aren’t
winning by 10 points on the road against these Rams.
I swear, for a minute I thought about making
this my upset of the week, if not the year. The way the Rams had been playing, especially
against great teams (SF, SEA), I knew they had a shot against Denver at home,
but I also thought the Broncos would be nearly unstoppable after losing to New England
in an attempt to keep pace, and didn’t expect Julius Thomas and Emmanuel
Sanders to be injured, the latter on a completely clean, but devastating hit.
The Rams held the ball for nearly 12 more minutes and forced Manning into two
more INTs (1 TD), although he threw for 389 yards, and kept the Broncos to
their lowest point total since acquiring Peyton.
San Francisco 49ers 5-4 (-4) @ New York Giants 3-6 (43.5): 49ers 24-20 49ers 16-10
Sunday, 1 PM, MetLife Stadium,
East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Cloudy,
high 40s)
Reasons: The 49ers might
be the best 5-4 team in the league, and the Giants shouldn’t even have three
wins. Because of Eli Manning and the Giants WR corps, the Giants’ offense is
mediocre; otherwise the Giants are terrible, especially on defense. The 49ers
have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and get some key guys back this week
(e.g. Aldon Smith), which only makes
SF better. The 49ers should run all over the Giants, literally.
This game had moments akin to NFC playoff games’
past, but none of those quarterbacks threw five INTs. The 49ers held the ball
for ten more minutes and rushed for 148 rushing yards on 37 carries,
controlling the clock after every one of Eli Manning’s terrible five INTs. The
Giants stayed in the game, despite Manning’s five INTs, but Eli’s five INTs
made it impossibly to win. Did I mention Eli Manning threw five INTs?
Oakland Raiders 0-9 (+10) @ San Diego Chargers 5-4 (44.5): Chargers 27-20 Chargers
13-6
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Qualcomm
Stadium, San Diego, CA (Weather: Some
sun, low 70s)
Reasons: It’s well known how awful the winless
Raiders are, but Oakland isn’t the worst team in the NFL; in fact, they’re far
from it. Well, 4-5 spots from it. The Raiders are abysmal offensively, but have
an average defense, which is saying something. The Chargers remain an
above-average team, despite losing their last three games (KC, DEN, MIA), and are superior to Oakland statistically, with the
exception of the running game, which will only improve with key players back
from injury.
A surprising defensive battle, the Chargers held
the Raiders to nine first downs, 233 total yards, and 3-15 3rd down efficiency.
The Chargers didn’t fare much better (18 FD, 300 yards, 4-15 3rd down)
but they held the ball for ten more minutes, forced a Raiders’ fumble, and
controlled the clock with 32 rushing attempts. The Raiders, the only winless
team in the league, are now 0-10.
Philadelphia Eagles 7-2 (+6) @ Green Bay Packers 6-3 (55): Packers 28-27 Packers 53-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Lambeau Field,
Green Bay, WI (Weather: 70% snow, high
20s)
Reasons: One of the best
games of the week, these two teams have two of the most prolific scoring
offenses in the league (PHI – 4th;
GB – 5th), both teams have two of the highest scoring
differentials (PHI - +9; GB - +8),
and both teams have the ability to get after it defensively. To boot, both
teams “win” their games by average scores of 31-22 (PHI) and 31-23 (GB) –
pretty even match up. The difference here could be turnovers - the Eagles are
at -5 on the season, the source of their few losses and several nail-biters,
while the Packers take things from people (+10)
and capitalize. I would never take the points, but I do think Aaron Rodgers is
hitting his stride, which makes the Packers as dangerous as anybody.
The Eagles were down 30-6 at halftime and never
had a chance. Aaron Rodgers was on fire again, throwing for 341 yards and three
TDs. The Green Bay defense picked off Mark Sanchez twice and sacked three times,
and LeSean McCoy (3.8 ypc) was ineffective. These two teams could start trending
in opposite directions if the Eagles don’t figure out the quarterback situation.
Detroit Lions 7-2 (+1.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 8-1 (41.5): Cardinals 21-20 Cardinals
14-6
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of
Phoenix, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Sunny,
low 70s)
Reasons: Another Week 11
gem, the Cardinals lost Carson Palmer for the season, but it might not matter –
they’ve basically been without him most of the season anyway season. The Lions
are one of the best teams in the league, statistically, but scrap and claw for
every win. The Cardinals have the best record in the NFL, but almost every
pundit in the business can’t figure it out and points to their turnover ratio (+12), and how much they capitalize on
those turnovers. It’s going to be a close, low-scoring game, but before you
pencil the Lions in for a win against Drew Stanton on the road, keep in mind
the Cardinals have won these-type games all season.
Drew Stanton threw two TDs in the first nine
minutes of the first quarter to Michael Floyd, and that was basically the end
of the game. The Cardinals defense held the Lions to 11 first downs and only
262 total yards, and sacked Matt Stafford four times, thanks in part to Patrick
Peterson blanketing Calvin Johnson.
New England Patriots 7-2 (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts 6-3 (58): Patriots 28-27 Patriots
42-20
Sunday, 8:30 PM, Luca Oil
Stadium, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Perhaps the game of the week, the feature Sunday
Night game pits the top-ranked scoring offense (IND) v. the 3rd-ranked
scoring offense (NE), two teams that,
like the Eagles and Packers, have identical point differentials (+9) and “win” their respective games by
average scores of 31-22 (NE) and
32-23 (IND). Both defenses are
mediocre, but it won’t matter against these prolific offenses. Once again, the
big difference here is turnovers – NE is tied with ARZ with a +12 turnover
ratio, while the Colts are dead even (0).
I expect Bill Belichick’s complex scheme to confuse the Stanford product and
force more of those turnovers, which NE should capitalize on, leading to a
Patriots’ victory.
The Patriots offense, led by former practice
squad running back, and now the current AFC Offensive Player of the Week Jonas
Gray, steamrolled the Colts awful run defense. Gray rushed for 201 yards and a ridiculous
four TDs on a whopping 37 carries. Rob Gronkowski added 71 colorful receiving yards
and a TD, and blocked Sergio Brown into the NBC camera after claiming Brown was
“talking smack”. Despite Luck’s most recent stellar performance (303 passing
yards, 2 TDs), the Colts only rushed for 19 yards on 16 carries, and the
Patriots defense defended seven of Luck’s passes. A 14-10 game at the half, in
which the Colts’ scored on a Luck to Nicks TD pass with 55 seconds left, the
Patriots made it 28-13 by the end of the 3rd quarter, only to see
the Colts get within seven on a Colby Fleener TD catch, before the Patriots
rattled off 14 unanswered points to seal the quality win.
Pittsburgh Steelers 6-4 (-6) @ Tennessee Titans 2-7 (47): Steelers 27-21 Steelers 27-24
Monday, 8:30 PM, LP Field,
Nashville, TN (Weather: Clearing, high
20s)
Reasons: The Steelers are
coming off a loss to the Jets and the Titans start a rookie quarterback and are
terrible. The Titans’ run defense, ranked 11th, is the only
respectable aspect of the Titans’ team, and the Steelers couldn’t care less
because they throw it a ton and throw it well (4th-ranked pass offense). The Steelers might be a little
banged up on defense, but the Titans could be missing their two best offensive
players (Derek McCluster; Delanie Walker).
The Steelers were down 24-13 with less than
four minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter, but 14 4th-quarter
unanswered points sealed the win for the suddenly reeling Steelers. The Titans
managed only 14 first downs, but gained 312 total yards on only 39 plays (8.0
ypp), including 263 passing yards and two TDs (1 INT) from the rookie Zach
Mettenberger. The Titans also sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times and picked
him off, but proved they still have a long way to go before they can play on
the big stage on Monday Night. I am though, as I called yet another score.
Check back next week for Week 12: #NFL Game Predictions
(w/ spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!
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