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Saturday, February 1, 2014

Week 21 #NFL Predictions: SUPER BOWL XLVIII EDITION

SUPER BOWL XLVIII
February 2nd 2014 :: MetLife Stadium, NY/NJ 

Seattle Seahawks #1 (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos #1 (48): SEAHAWKS 27-24
Sunday, 6:30 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 30% rain, mild, mid-40s)

Reasons: Normally I would write a paragraph or two (or more if we're talking Patriots) breaking down a few key points to a particular game, specifically points/yardage rankings and applicable trends, and come to a relatively brief prediction of a score/winner. However, just as the Super Bowl is grand, so shall be my preview of this Super Bowl, much like my Super Bowl XLVII preview (I erroneously predicted the 49ers to win a close game), the game preview that started this sports blog one year ago to the week. I've enjoyed writing about the games this past year; I hope you've enjoyed reading.

The Most Anticipated Super Bowl in years...and the greatest Super Bowl ever

This is one of the most anticipated Super Bowls in recent memory. Since the merger of the two major American football leagues (AFL & NFL) in 1970, the top seeds from each conference have reached the Super Bowl only nine times, the last being in 2010 when the Indianapolis Colts lost to the New Orleans Saints; besides that it's been 20 years (1993). This is the highest points differential (23.5) between Super Bowl opponents that rank #1 in scoring offense/defense respectively in the game's history, and the next closest game isn't even close (17.9, SBXIX, 1984, SF v. MIA). In fact, this is only the fifth time that the #1 respective scoring offense/defense have met in the Super Bowl:

1978: Steelers (D) W v. Cowboys (O)
1984: 49ers (D) W v. Dolphins (O)
1989: 49ers (O) W v. Broncos (D) - this game also featured the top seeds from each conference
1990: Giants (D) W v. Bills (O)

You can see where the phrase "defense wins championships" comes from. As far as comparing total yardage this is only the second time in history that the top offense in terms of total yards gained faces the defense that gave up the fewest yards (2003, TB v. OAK), and the total yardage differential between these two teams (184 yards) is much greater than that 2003 game (137 yards). In fact, if you take those other four aforementioned games into account, in which the top-ranked scoring defenses/offenses played one another, and look at their respective yardage total from the season in question, the two closest games, SBXIV 1978 Steelers v. Cowboys (106 yards) and SBXXIV 1989 49ers v. Broncos (116 yards), weren't even close to this one. Super Bowl XLVIII not only boasts the highest points differential between #1 scoring offenses/defenses in the game's history, it is by far the highest total yards differential between the #1 total yards offense/defense, in addition to being only the second Super Bowl match up in league history the top defense/offense also happened to be the top seeds from their respective conference (SBXXIV, 1989, SF v. Denver, see above). I make the case here that Super Bowl XLVIII is statistically the greatest Super Bowl ever played, essentially destroying the 1989 Super Bowl on paper. Of course only time will tell if the game meets expectations, but statistically this is the greatest Super Bowl match up since the NFL merger in 1970. That's a cool thing to brag about as a Broncos fan: Your team has played in the two greatest statistical match ups in Super Bowl history. It is interesting to note that in SBXXIV, the only one of its kind where the #1 scoring offense won over the #1 scoring defense, the offense won handily, 55-10. Has anyone noticed that the two teams in the Super Bowl happen to be from the two states that have lifted marijuana prohibition? Oh yeah, everyone has. I suggest "Omaha" as a toking trigger, if you're so inclined, but there will be words uttered more, believe me. You know the booze-hounds will be all over it. My interest is in the much-promised marijuana advertising. That should be interesting...

The Key Metrics to Winning in the NFL

There are certain metrics by which NFL teams measure themselves, or standards teams try to meet to enable success in the NFL. Some of these may vary from organization to organization, but for the most part they are relatively standard and include, but are not limited to: points allowed (and/or differential), yards allowed (and/or differential), Red Zone TD defense efficiency, Red Zone TD offense efficiency, yards per pass attempt, rush attempts per game, and turnover ratio. If we were to go by those metrics alone, on paper the Seahawks would destroy the Broncos. The Seahawks are ranked first in points allowed (14.4), yards allowed (273.6), and turnover ratio (+20), second in Red Zone defense efficiency (39%) and rush attempts per game (31.8), and sixth in yards per attempt (7.0). In the context of these aforementioned metrics their worst ranking is 14th, in Red Zone TD offense efficiency (53%), still ranked in the top half of the league, just out of the top-10. On the other hand, the Broncos only rank in the top-10 in two of these major metrics, although they are ranked first in both (yards per attempt - 7.3 & Red Zone TD efficiency - 73%). The Broncos are ranked 11th in rushing attempts (28.8), 16th in TO ratio (+/- 0), 19th in yards against (356.0), 22nd in points against (24.9), and 26th in Red Zone TD defense efficiency (62%). Strength of schedule is also a major factor and the Seahawks had the 9th-ranked schedule v. the Broncos 24th-ranked schedule. If you consider that both teams ranked in the top-3 in points/yards differentials as well, the fact that the Seahawks managed those statistics with such a difficult schedule is an amazing feat. The Seattle Seahawks are truly one of the more complete regular season teams to reach the Super Bowl, and most of the numbers point to them winning the game, but there's one other major factor could trump them all: experience. The Seahawks have almost no Super Bowl experience relative to the Broncos, which will certainly be one of their strengths leading up to one of the biggest media frenzies in sports. The most complete team game in professional sports might come down to individual strengths like this.

The Denver Broncos Strengths/Weaknesses

The Broncos have been shredding offensive records all season long, both team and Manning - no need to belabor those points. The interesting thing that almost no one has talked about, including many pundits, is the Broncos suddenly stout defense. Almost laughable at points in the season, the Broncos ranked in the bottom half of many important defensive categories, save rush defense (ranked 8th), but turned it around towards the end of the season. During the playoffs the Broncos ranked first in rush yards allowed, against two of the better rushing teams in the league (SD & NE), and second in total yards allowed. The resurgence of Pot Roast, a.k.a. Terrance Knighton, the 300-lb. interior lineman that has been wreaking havoc on the front lines of the Chargers and Patriots on their way to Super Bowl XLVIII, will be a major factor. The supposed slack caused by the devastating loss of Chris Harris was immediately picked up by future HOFer Champ Bailey, desperate for his first Super Bowl win. After the AFC Championship loss, Patriot's QB Tom Brady talked about how different the Broncos defense looked compared to their Week 12 match up, about the time the Bronco's defense started coming together and playing as a unit, one of the few things lost in analyzing full-season statistics. The Broncos have serious offensive weapons, but these weapons are more fragile than you might think, especially against this heat-seeking defense, and one major blow to Wes Welker or Eric Decker could change the tune of this game immediately. The size advantage Denver has over most teams is non-existent v. the Seahawks, and Seattle has some of the better cover LBs in the league. The weather may not factor in to the game much, but the altitude could. Playing at sea level relative to 5,280 feet above sea level will certainly effect John Fox's decisions regrading 4th down and FGs as well as Peyton Manning's ducks, something Richard Sherman astutely pointed out. The Broncos average a league-best 6.3 yards per play, but the Seahawks allow a league-best 4.4 ypp. This is one area I could see the Broncos excelling in - yardage and big plays. However, scoring points is the important thing, and the Broncos haven't done that in the playoffs, averaging 25 ppg (13 fewer points than their season average) v. relatively weak defensive teams, nothing like they'll face v. Seattle on Sunday. In fact, the Broncos didn't rank higher than 4th of 12 playoff teams in points or any yard totals in two home playoff games that had similar or better weather than Denver will face Sunday. So as the game approaches it might be the Bronco's defense that could make the biggest difference, not the highly-touted offense that has been sputtering, in addition to facing the best defense they've faced all year Sunday, maybe the best defense Peyton Manning has ever faced in his career (including Baltimore). Manning was only sacked 20 times all year - he could get sacked 10 times in this game alone v. this front seven. For all of those who point out that Seattle won't be at home: neither will Denver.

The Seattle Seahawks Strengths/Weaknesses

The Seahawks strengths are well-documented: the come in hot with a defense that will hurt you, insult you, and embarrass you. They're a team who had to play the likes of the 49ers, the Panthers, and the Cardinals, three of the five best defenses in the NFL, most twice, and all on the road. Just when the wounds from those defensive battles began to heal they'd be off to play teams like the Saints to deal with those offensive juggernauts. These Seahawks are no joke. They're not about timing or finesse. They don't rely on seamless pass routes and a kicker who can kick 50+ yard FGs in the thin air. The Seahawks are a team that grinds out wins in the worst weather against the toughest competition. People act as if the Seahawks can't play on the road when they went 6-2, losing only one more game on the road than at home, where they are praised for perfection. People worry about the Seahawks offense. I can't imagine why: The Seahawks were the 8th-ranked scoring offense (26.1 ppg), the 3rd-ranked rushing offense (137 ypg), and they didn't skip a beat in the playoffs averaging 23 ppg (just three fewer than their season average). The Seahawks are a turnover (39) and sack machine (44) and should take advantage of the extremely slow-moving Manning and/or his ducks, as well as the fumble-prone Broncos, who led the league in fumbles lost. Although both teams are obviously on the road, the Seahawks will certainly feel it more without their "12th Man", who doesn't travel well (as the 2006 Seahawks will tell you), especially being in little brother Eli's town. Two other slight disadvantages the Seahawks have to content with is a lack of Super Bowl experience, of which the Seahawks have zero, and the fact that the Seahawks were the most penalized team in the NFL. You simply cannot take cheap shot hits against the NFL's favorite son, nor can you touch their precious WRs, thanks to Peyton's most important personal assistant, Bill Polian, who made sure Peyton's bombs would go untouched, less any CB get flagged for the inevitable pass interference. A team that can move the ball at will, especially when greased, cannot be afforded gift yards from stupid penalties. This is something Pete Carroll needs to hammer into the heads of his defense. One last note about potential issues raised by the media that I cannot see being an issue: the play of Russell Wilson. Only in his second year, Wilson has shown no signs of a second-year QB, ranking 5th in the NFL this season with a 102.4 QB rating. The little amount of attention paid to Wilson has been just what the Seahawks could have wanted - let the man go to work. I could see Russell Wilson being the unsung hero of this game and stealing the show.

The Bottom Line

The weather should not be a factor, but if it's 40 degrees with a slight chance of rain as forecasted 48 hours before kick-off, that favors Seattle as that would be considered hometown weather. In 2013 the Broncos were 6-2 on the road and won their games by an average score of 37-24; in the playoffs those offensive scores dipped to an average of 25 points, both home games to boot, but Denver also only allowed 17 ppg. The Seahawks were also 6-2 on the road this season and won their games by an average score of 23-15; in the playoffs those numbers stayed nearly identical (23-16). The Broncos defense has certainly become a force in recent weeks, and Knighton and Co. will certainly make things tougher on the Seahawks than people might expect, but I doubt they can handle Russell Wilson outside of the pocket too much, especially without Von Miller, let alone along with The Beast, a RB the likes of which the Broncos haven't seen yet this season. No one has really talked about the Seahawks WRs, a very underrated group of speedsters with above-average athleticism and hands; don't forget about Percy Harvin, who'll be active for the game, a guy who despite few contributions thus far, could literally be the game changer if healthy. The Seahawks front seven will give Manning more problems than he's faced all year, and no amount of Omaha check-downs is going to fix that pressure. The larger-than-average secondary, save the tiny but dangerous bomb known as Earl Campbell III, will hit the Broncos WRs harder and more often than they've been hit all year. As I said before, the size advantage afforded to the Broncos on one edge and at the ends on a nearly week-to-week basis will mean nothing v. the giant Seahawks. If you think size plays no role in coverage you know nothing about football. So in my opinion I feel the game will come down to two things: can the Bronco's front seven contain Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson and can the Seahawks front seven get to Manning? The Seahawks secondary can only cover so many guys and the LBs can only cover well for so long. If Manning is allowed to throw freely they might hold the ball just long enough to first-down their way to a low-scoring title, but if the Seahawks can put any pressure on Manning and get The Beast rolling, it's all over for these statistically-inferior Broncos.

MVP

I've thought long and hard about this one. Neither the Broncos nor the Seahawks have Special Teams guys that can steal the spotlight, a la Jacoby Jones in 2012, but they do have dark-horses. Although both teams rank in the top-10 in returns (K returns: DEN 6th - 25.0 yards; P returns: SEA 9th - 11.1 yards), there aren't many players dynamic enough to be considered for Super Bowl MVP status, although Seattle could make the case for Golden Tate or Percy Harvin (again, if healthy) and Denver could make a case for Trindon Holliday. Several defensive players could make a play for MVP, and I could almost certainly see Richard Shermon, Kam Chancellor, or even Bobby Wagner stealing the spotlight and grabbing an MVP award, but ask Justin Tuck how hard those awards are to come by for defensive players. No, this MVP award is going to one of two Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson or Marshawn Lynch, and something tells me it'll be the latter. I see early focus shifting from Lynch to Wilson as the QB begins to loosen up and make key throws while taking advantage of the play action pass, which will set up the run game late for The Beast as he wears down the Denver defense, keeps Peyton off the field, and scores his third TD late to seal the game. Wilson's game management and heady decisions, but relatively low total yards and no TD passes will give way to Marshawn Lynch's three TDs, a highlight reel run or two, and the subsequent awkward MVP acceptance speech.

Top-10 Prop Bets (take these...maybe)

1. Archie Manning shown OVER 2.5 times on TV, exculding halftime (-175): Come on...
2. Peyton Manning says "Omaha" UNDER 27.5 times, excluding replays (-155): Used as decoy only
3. Doug Baldwin OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-110): Best Seattle hands, most explosive
4. Temperature OVER 32 degrees F @ kick-off(-120): Supposed to be ~45 degrees
5. Temperature OVER 28 degrees F as LOW game temp (-120): Low at 5AM is supposed to be 31
6. Russell Wilson OVER 30.5 rushing yards (-110): Averaged 34 ypg in 2013; playoffs an anomaly
7. Richard Sherman WILL BE interviewed by Erin Andrews live post game on Fox (-120): $$$
8. The first turnover will be a FUMBLE (+110): The Broncos led the league, enough said
9. Announcers WILL mention Russell Wilson being drafted by MLB (+150): More than a feeling...
10. There WILL be a score in the first 90 seconds (+1800): Why not, Peyton likes to score quick


SUPER BOWL XLVIII: 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 27
DENVER BRONCOS 24


Stay tuned for the last "Tuesday's Gone: Week 21 #NFL Predictions Review: SUPER BOWL XLVIII EDITION" coming Wednesday...




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