2021 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone: Week 18 #NFL Game Reviews
WEEK 18:
9-7 .563 (WINS); 8-8 .500 (ATS); 10-5-1 .667 (O/U)
2021 SEASON TOTALS:
177-94-1 .653 (WINS); 153-117-2 .567 (ATS); 137-132-3 .509 (O/U)
Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): EWL (Expected W-L record); SoS (Strength of Schedule); SRS (Simple Rating System from PFR); Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 1st downs (1st); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); P/R NY/A (Pass/Rush Net yards/attempt); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google using Creative Commons license unless otherwise stated (including source)*
DISCLAIMER: PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA IS FOR ANALYZING NFL FOOTBALL GAMES AND IS NOT A BETTING WEBSITE
Good luck at the window this season!
Things have been as awkward as Patrick Mahomes face in this picture at times this season, but the Kansas City Chiefs are looking to another Super Bowl run in 2022 and a first round bye with a win and a little help from the Tennessee Titans.
Kansas City Chiefs 11-5 (-10.5) @ Denver Broncos 7-9 (45): Chiefs 31-17 Chiefs 28-24
Saturday, 4:30 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: 20% snow; low 40s)
Keys: The Chiefs are looking to secure the AFC’s top seed with a little help from the Tennessee Titans while the Broncos entire secondary is on the IR while the rest of the team is just getting over covid. Suffice it to say the Chiefs probably cover the 10.5 points here altitude and all.
The Broncos held a lead in the 4th quarter, but the Chiefs ultimately got the top seed for the non-bye teams.
Dallas Cowboys 11-5 (-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles 9-7 (44): Eagles 24-23 Cowboys 51-26
Saturday, 8:30 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Clear; high 20s)
Keys: The Cowboys are home for the first round of the playoffs no matter the outcome and the Eagles could simply move up a spot if they win and the San Francisco 49ers lose. The Cowboys starters could also be benched quickly under just about any circumstance leaving division rivalry the only motivation to win on the road in frigid conditions. All of this means the Cowboys don’t try too hard and the Eagles not only cover, but likely win.
Cincinnati Bengals 10-6 (-6) @ Cleveland Browns 7-9 (37): Browns 23-20 Browns 21-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 50% wintry mix; low 40s)
Keys: The Browns are on to next season while Cincinnati is already on to the playoffs after winning the AFC North. The Bengals will sit most, including Joe Burrow, and the Browns have already lost Baker Mayfield to season-ending surgery, so it’s interesting the public doesn’t think Nick Chubb runs them into the ground as the Bengals look on to next week.
Green Bay Packers 13-3 (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions 2-13-1 (44): Packers 26-17 Lions 37-30
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: I’m not really sure what’s going on here. The opening line of GB -11 was bet down to -3 over the week and Aaron Rodgers is playing, despite the Packers having nothing to play for besides rusting up. The other Aaron, Jones, is questionable, but that doesn’t explain an eight point shift. Rodgers sitting out the second half doesn’t either. Maybe it’s because Jared Goff is questionable. It’s pretty safe to say the Packers win and cover the three points, but maybe I’m missing something. The Lions are also on a five-game streak of scoring 29+ points and then not scoring more than 16 points and guess which scenario is due this week?
Never doubt the sharps.
Chicago Bears 6-10 (+5.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 7-9 (44): Vikings 24-21 Vikings 31-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Kirk Cousins couldn’t talk about the 7-9 Vikings failures this season because he’s “hyper focused” on the 6-10 Bears, which means nothing other than for draft position, which Cousins won’t be around to see come to fruition anyway.
Washington Football Team 6-10 (-7) @ New York Giants 4-12 (37): Washington 23-17 Washington 22-7
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 50% wintry mix; low 40s)
Keys: Hell no.
Indianapolis Colts 9-7 (-14.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 2-14 (44): Colts 33-17 Jaguars 26-11
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The Colts have everything to lose and the Jaguars have nothing to lose. The Jaguars are so bad the fans are planning on coming to the game dressed as clowns and it’s not even to make fun of Colts owner Jim Irsay. It’s hard to believe the Colts seemed Super Bowl-bound just a few weeks ago and now they could miss the playoffs.
Few projected playoff teams have started out slower, gained more steam and subsequently fizzled out like the 2021 Indianapolis Colts. Carson Wentz will down in history as someone who made one of Jonathan Taylor's greatest years obsolete.
Pittsburgh Steelers 8-7-1 (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 8-8 (41): Ravens 23-21 Steelers 16-13 OT
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 70% wintry mix; low 40s)
Keys: It’s almost impossible to think the Ravens were Super Bowl contenders at the beginning of the year, but then covid, injuries, Lamar Jackson’s TO troubles and John Harbaugh’s insane coaching doomed them. As for the Steelers this is Ben Roethlisberger’s swan song unless a comedy of errors occurs and the Steelers back into the playoffs, which is also a slim possibility for the Ravens, which might give them the slight edge at home over their bitter rivals, assuming they don’t leave it to Harbaugh.
Another year, another meaningful AFC North battle at the end of the year. The Steelers are in, believe it or not.
Tennessee Titans 11-5 (-10) @ Houston Texans 4-12 (42): Titans 26-20 Titans 28-25
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: All the Titans have to do is win and they have the AFC’s top seed first round bye, and could be doing it with Derrick Henry. What could go wrong?
The Titans secured the AFC's top seed in a win that was much more lopsided then the score would suggest, and get Derrick Henry back to boot. Supposedly the Titans were 20-1 odds to win the Super Bowl this week, which is very tempting.
New Orleans Saints 8-8 (-3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 7-9 (40): Saints 23-20 Saints 30-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Saints have a prayer at getting into the playoffs, but they have a road game against their bitter rivals to win first, not to mention help from the San Francisco 49ers. New Orleans also has the only motivating factors in this game, including the revenge factor from their home loss to Atlanta Week 9.
New York Jets 4-12 (+16.5) @ Buffalo Bills 10-6 (40.5): Bills 27-6 Bills 27-10
Sunday, 4:25 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 70% wintry mix; low 40s)
Keys: The Bills win and they’re AFC East champions. It’s that simple at home in their beloved snow against the hapless division rival Jets.
Calling team scores like a mug here...
San Francisco 49ers 9-7 (+4.5) @ Los Angeles Rams 12-4 (44.5): Rams 24-21 49ers 27-24 OT
Sunday, 4:25 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: This is one of four games the final week with playoff implications on both sides, because if the 49ers win they’re in, but if the Rams win they win the NFC West and have home field advantage throughout the playoffs unless they faced Green Bay in the NFC Championship. Will it be Jimmy G or Trey Lance, that’s the question.
Just when the Rams and Sean McVay had Kyle Shanahan and the 49rs finally beat after five tries, the 49ers came back to win in OT and backed right into the playoffs.
New England Patriots 10-6 (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins 8-8 (40): Patriots 24-17 Dolphins 33-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 50% storms; high 70s)
Keys: We could analyze this game all we wanted to but the simple fact is Bill Belichick is not losing to the same team three times in a row, especially with the AFC East and the potential for some home field advantage in the playoffs at stake.
The Dolphins fired Brain Flores after this game.
Seattle Seahawks 6-10 (+6) @ Arizona Cardinals 11-5 (48): Cardinals 27-23 Seahawks 38-30
Sunday, 4:25 PM, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Cardinals can win the division they should’ve wrapped up weeks ago and make sure they don’t have to travel anywhere in the playoffs for at least two rounds and all they have to do is beat a Seahawks team led for the last time by Russell Wilson, who much like the Cardinals running away with their division, is someone some thought could run away with the MVP before shit hit the fan.
So much for the Cardinals being scary.
Carolina Panthers 5-11 (+8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12-4 (41.5): Buccaneers 27-17 Buccaneers 41-17
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 30% storms; low 80s)
Keys: What a mess the Buccaneers are, but as long as they’re awake they’re talented enough to beat the Panthers, who are 2-11 since starting the season 3-0. The Buccaneers could gain a seed to number two and Tom Brady (4,990 passing yards; 40 TDs) could make his last case for MVP, so as with other games with similar stakes the Buccaneers have too much to lose by not taking care of Carolina. It’s just such a shame that Tom Brady won’t be able to use and manipulate Antonio Brown for this Super Bowl run, will be much shorter than last year’s.
Los Angeles Chargers 9-7 (-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders 9-7 (49): Raiders 24-23 Raiders 35-32 OT
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: They have a saying for people that push the envelope and get schooled, especially physically, called “F*cked around and found out”, which is what the Chargers, who had a countless opportunities not to end up in the position, are about to experience against a Raiders team that should’ve been left for dead months ago. I have two words for the Chargers Sunday: Derek Carr.
This was one of the best final NFL games the league has ever produced, and the Raiders could be one of the best stories the league has ever produced.
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 19: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) WILD CARD EDITION coming Saturday!
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