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Wednesday, May 28, 2014

isportsweb.com: Carolina Panthers: OTAs begin, with it questions

Carolina Panthers: OTAs begin, with it questions 

By Sean Faulkner, isportsweb.com (@isportsweb)

Sunday, May 18, 2014

NBA Eastern Conference Finals Preview: Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers

  
V.  



2014 EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS


   Just as everyone predicted before the season began the Indiana Pacers will face the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals (ECF), which begin today at 3:30 EST on ABC. The two best teams in the Eastern Conference face off in the playoffs for the third time in the last three years, but there's one major difference this year: the games start at the Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Yes, despite what seemed like a season-long swoon the Pacers managed the best record in the Eastern Conference and "enjoyed" the home court advantage throughout the playoffs, culminating in these ECFs as the Pacers had assumed home court advantage was the one last major obstacle to beating the Heat. Well...

Whether or not it's the match up everyone expected is a different story. This match up seems more like the one from three years ago in the Eastern Conference semifinals - in that not too many people are giving the Pacers much of a chance. Can you blame them? After tearing through the league on their way to building the best record in the NBA the Pacers hit a rough patch for the ages, and at times it appeared to carry over into the playoffs.

The Indiana Pacers started 2013-2014 on a tear going 15-1 through their first 16 games and were on top of the NBA through February with the best record in the league (44-13), the top power ranking according to most media outlets (for whatever that's worth), and had just traded the aging Danny Granger to the Philadelphia 76ers in exchange for Evan Turner. Now the sky seemed the limit. As our favorite Seminole would say: "Not so fast my friends."

The Evan Turner trade turned out to be a disaster. Without diving too deeply into the actual trade, the effect it had on the team, or at least the effect it seemed to have, was more than notable, it was amazing. Through the trade at the end of February the Pacers were 44-13; over the next six weeks (25 games) the Pacers lost as many games (13) as they had through the first 57, going 12-13 to finish the season. The Pacers then lost their first game of the 2014 Playoffs to the lowly 8th seed Atlanta Hawks, who themselves had actually been trying to stay out of the playoffs. According to multiple reports, Lance Stephenson and Evan Turner had to be separated after a locker room fist fight the night before the series began. (Note: Stephenson also almost came to blows with George Hill in March)

These two teams began the road to this match up two years ago when the Pacers faced the Heat in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, when the young, surprising Pacers took advantage of an injured Chris Bosh and a wobbly Dwayne Wade and quickly went up 2-1. However, Wade performed his "heroics" of late, going from limping veteran to sprite All-World after a knee-draining that allowed him to go for 30, 28, and 40 through Games 4-5-6. It didn't hurt that then bench-residing Lance Stephenson, know for his diplomacy (cough), threw a chock sign to the Heat bench that he still hasn't recovered from. The Heat never looked back.



Last year was much different. Paul George was blossoming into a superstar, Roy Hibbert was playing like a 7' 2" center from Georgetown, David West provided the muscle, and Lance Stephenson was playing like he hadn't slept since Brooklyn - I wouldn't have slept a wink either if the shit I had talked sparked the Heat to their Championship the previous season. The series was played in Miami, which proved to be pivotal, as the Heat took Game 7 at home, something the Pacers insisted was simply a function of home court advantage.

It could be argued the Pacers should've gone up 2-0 in that series, if not for a coaching gaff in which Frank Vogel took Hibbert out of the game down the stretch - a stretch that included LeBron James driving to the basket uncontested for the game-winning layup. Game 2 belonged to the Pacers mostly due to Paul George's national coming out party, which prompted James to "dap" George, despite the fact that they were in the middle of a heated playoff series and they were on national television. All I'm saying is Larry Bird and Michael Jordan would never have had that moment. It speaks to the modern NBA and "branding", but I digress...

The teams continued to trade wins until Game 7, which the Heat dominated by the largest margin of the playoffs. Despite losing the series, the Pacers proved they could not only hang with the Champion Heat, but challenge them. There was only one close game in the series (Game 1, 103-102), as all other games were decided by six or more points. Despite Miami having the larger margin of victory in their wins (12 ppg), the Pacers margin of victory in their three games (9 ppg) was nearly as respectable, if not dominant. The Pacers left Miami determined to get back to the ECF against the Heat, but on their court. It happened.

This is only the third Conference Finals rematch over the last 20 years. In the previous two instances, the winner of the first meeting went on to lose the rematch. The last team to win consecutive Conference Finals against the same opponent were the Pistons in 1989-90 (defeated Bulls). (Source: ESPN)

The 2013-2014 regular season match ups looked very similar to the 2013 ECF in that the two teams split their 4-game regular season series this past season, two games being close and two games being relative blowouts, one by each team. In fact, the Heat and Pacers have split their last 14 head-to-head meetings over the last two seasons, including the playoffs. If their regular season match ups are any indication, the ECF is poised to be one for the ages.

The Pacers are essentially built to beat Miami. They're a big, long team and the Heat have fits with any team built like that, let alone a team with those qualities also essentially built to beat them inside and on the perimeter.  Miami is not a good rebounding team and they are not physical. The Heat are Hollywood; the Pacers pride themselves on  their "Blue Collar" work ethic. It's the type of polarizing match up we all dream about.



Miami signed Greg Oden this off season with the belief that he could guard Hibbert, but that didn't work out. Hibbert absolutely trashed Oden in their first match up of the season, scoring 9 of the team's first 11 point, while making a season-high 10 baskets. Oden didn't play the rest of the half and hasn't been a factor going forward. On a side note, the Pacers signed Andrew Bynum, who only played two games, and has since been released. Although it could be argued the two stories are similar, many around the league believe Bynum was signed to keep him away from Miami, and thus, keep Miami small.

Miami countered in that game with Udonis Haslem, and Haslem defended Hibbert well. Miami has essentially used him against Roy all season, and it's been effective. Haslem played limited minutes throughout the entire Brooklyn series; expect Haslem see an increased role in the ECF. 

Lance Stephenson should be a major factor in the series, and Pacer fans are hoping it's of the positive variety. Stephenson's antics have been well-noted through the past few years, but now Lance is counted on to make plays, not just be a pest. Stephenson was ejected in the third meeting against the Heat after getting two technicals - one  a double tech and the other for going after another player.  We all remember the picture of Stephenson flexing to Wade with Wade just smiling back. These teams do not like each other, and Stephenson may be the biggest hater. He'll have to keep those emotions under control as Wade is perhaps the biggest baiter in the NBA. It only takes that famous cocky Wade smirk to set most guys off.



One advantage the Pacers have is their toughness - not just from a size and physicality standpoint, but from a literal standpoint. David West and Lance Stephenson represent two of the biggest "no bullsh*t around me" attitudes in the NBA, and Paul Geoge and Roy Hibbert don't get pushed around, despite their oft-perceived nice-guy personalities. Expect multiple scuffles. Not fights, just hard fouls. Perhaps a few prolonged review moments for those inevitable flagrant fouls is in order.

The bench has been a big problem for the Pacers.  The Pacers rotation is essentially the starting five (Hibbert, West, George, Lance, Hill) with Ian Mahinmi, Luis Scola, Evan Turner, and CJ Watson coming off the bench. CJ Watson is their best shooter, which isn't a positive. Watson is good, but not the elite shooter you want coming off the bench. Scola and Turner have both struggled badly off the bench. Fatigue could be a factor as the Heat are certainly deeper and more rested, and the Heat cruised through their first two rounds while having a significantly deeper bench.

Miami's rotation is their starting five: Haslem, James, Wade, Bosh and Chalmers, with Norris Cole, Ray Allen, Anderson and Battier getting significant time; Miami has been starting Battier, but will most likely turn to Haslem to add the needed size inside. James Jones and Rashard Lewis will come off the bench and provide the same spark they have so far in the playoffs - timely perimeter shooting.

These games historically end up being grind-it-out games because of the contrasting styles. The Heat love to get out and run; the Pacers want to grind, play defense and play half court.  One problem with that style is that the Pacers offense struggles in the half court, primarily because George Hill is their point guard and he's not a true point guard. The Heat will look to trap him often, and will be successful as the Heat are a much better team defensively then the numbers might suggest. The Pacers play their best offense by converting defensive stops into transition offensive, as they struggle with the clock at times, displaying a Spurs-type offensive look, but without the actual picking and rolling. 




The Pacers are very careless with the basketball too, turning the ball over nearly 20 times per game against the Heat, often times by double teaming George on isolation plays or trapping Hill at the point. Turnovers could be a significant issue, as they have in the past against the Heat, especially considering the Heat's fast-break abilities and transition offense off turnovers.

The match up of the series will undoubtedly be James v. George (perhaps a few are thinking Wade v. Stephenson, although history wouldn't agree). George will guard James and vice versa. The Pacers will rotate Stephenson over at times to give George a breather, but George will be on James much of the series. If the Pacers can be dominate with Hibbert and West inside, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra will most likely put James on West, as he's done before.

This series comes down to history, match ups, and home court advantage. On paper this is one of the most evenly matched series of the playoffs, especially considering their regular season games, but in reality Pacers fans are worried. The Heat's troubles towards the end of the year could be attributed to fatigue, scheduling, and injuries. Many would say the Heat were just coasting through the end of the season, unaffected by playoff seeding, as they tried to get healthy enough to make another Championship run. Their attitude was "we can beat anyone, anytime", so why stress the regular season.

The Pacers on the other hand played their worst basketball down the stretch, and have looked spotty to say the least throughout the playoffs. Much talk of the Pacers demise has centered - no pun intended - around Hibbert, who put up astonishing numbers in the playoffs. Astonishingly bad in that there were many games where Hibbert scored and rebounded in the single digits...many games. In one famous game Hibbert posted the dreaded double goose egg. The Pacers have be consistent and not let the Heat get under their skin if they stand any chance against the Heat, who seemed to step on their opponent's necks as the playoffs went on. Case in point? The Brooklyn Nets were 4-0 against the Heat in the regular season; we all saw how that ended.

If Hibbert plays like a 7' 2" center, scoring at least 15 points and getting 10 rebounds while dominating the rim defensively, George plays like the superstar he's become over the last two seasons, West continues to intimidate, and Stephenson keeps his head while playing at a semi-elite level, the Pacers will win this series with their home court advantage. If Wade's knees act up, as Stephenson has publicly lobbied for, the Heat could be trouble. If Miami's bench goes cold the Heat could be in trouble. If Chris Bosh is held in check the Heat could be in trouble. 




The chances of all those things happening for the Pacers, especially in the face of their recent play the past two months, are slim. The Heat are peaking as the Pacers are trying to keep up. Perhaps this the match up the Pacers need - the match up the Pacer's have been waiting for all playoffs. Indiana could turn it on at home and show the world what they've been waiting to show us for a year. Or Maybe LeBron James continues to haunt my sports world until September.





For anyone looking for analyses on the Miami Heat, I refer you to ESPN. Trust me, just turn it on...the Heat are probably on right now.


Eastern Conference Finals: Miami Heat 4 - Indiana Pacers 3


MVP: LeBron James 


Other series notes:


Over the last 2 seasons and including the playoffs, Miami is 6-1 at home against the Pacers compared to just 1-6 on the road.

LeBron James is averaging 30.0 points this postseason while shooting a career-high 56.4 percent from the field

The Pacers are just 3-4 at home this postseason after going an NBA-best 35-6 in the regular season.

The Heat have yet to lose a game at home in the playoffs.

Roy Hibbert averaged 22.5 points in Indiana's two wins over Miami this season compared to just 5.5 points in their two losses.

The Pacers are 3-4 at home this postseason. The Pacers are the first No. 1 seed to enter the Conference Finals with a postseason home record below .500. (Elias)

By Sean Faulkner (@phaulkner) & Tad Scott (@treyphanastasio)


Thanks for reading!



Friday, April 4, 2014

The 2014 Major League Baseball Preview




It’s that time of year. Spring is in the air. The boys of summer are back. Ahh, forget the clichés.

2013 was a year of surprises. The teams everyone expected to take off due to free agent acquisitions and exorbitant contracts – specifically the Los Angeles Angels/Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays, and Detroit Tigers – either flopped totally (Angels & Blue Jays), completely underachieved (Dodgers), or barely justified their approach to luxury tax status with a deep run in the playoffs, despite their rocky start (Tigers).

Those surprises pale in comparison to the Boston Red Sox winning the World Series in 2013, one season after their embarrassing, epic collapse in which the Bobby Valetine-led Sox lost a huge division lead late in the season and squandered a team full of All-Stars, and a chance at a post season run.


So the 2013 Angels and Dodgers were basically the 2012 Red Sox, but only in the sense that they all sported some of the highest payrolls in the league with nothing to show for it at the end of the regular season. As far as the epic collapse, there was no comparison, but for most New Englanders, 2013 made up for it.


Here’s a cool little breakdown of the 2013 MLB Playoffs, NCAA Tournament-style.

What surprises does 2014 have in store for baseball fans? Well, even as a born and bred Masshole from the South Shore, I can’t quite say the Red Sox are repeating, despite my Belichickian faith in John Farrell, but they do have a chance. So do many teams. I’ve based my projected standings on projected statistics, key additions/subtractions, common sense, and the Vegas over/under for wins (modified from SB Nation). Let’s get to it…

AL EAST

1.     x-Boston Red Sox (87.5)               
2.     y-Tampa Bay Devil Rays (88.5)
3.     New York Yankees (86.5)
4.     Baltimore Orioles (80.5)
5.     Toronto Blue Jays (74.5)

Division highlight: New York Yankees. The Yankees went crazy during the off-season, and some would argue literally. New York went big on some risky contracts, including an oft-hurt Jacoby Ellsbury, an aging Carlos Beltran, and the latest Japanese phenom, Masahiro Tanaka. Those contracts could handicap the new-look Yankees, or they could pay off big dividends. The Yankees also signed former Braves catcher Brain McCann and have former talk of the league pitcher Michael Pineda back from a yearlong injury suffered last season. Those same Yankees also let franchise player Robinson Cano sign with Seattle, despite paying the likes of Ellsbury exorbitant contacts. The Yankees are a true feast-or-famine team; i.e., they could miss the playoffs all together or win the World Series with the right luck. Does Derek Jeter ride off into the sunset or slip out the back door when no one’s looking?



AL CENTRAL

1.     *x-Detroit Tigers (89.5)
2.     Cleveland Indians (80.5)
3.     Kansas City Royals (81.5)
4.     Chicago White Sox (75.5)
5.     Minnesota Twins (70.5)

Division highlight: Cleveland Indians. The Indians were one of the biggest surprises in 2013, winning 92 games and making the “playoffs” for the first time since 2007, although they lost the Wildcard game 5-4 to Tampa Bay. Cleveland added three potentially major pieces this off-season, Daniel Murphy (Texas), Nyjer Morgan (MIL) John Axford (STL/MIL), the offensive punch, speed, and back end relief the Indians need after having nothing to show for those 92 wins, except a very well-deserved Manager of the Year award for Tito.


AL WEST

1.     x-Texas Rangers (86.5)
2.     y-Los Angeles Angels (86.5)
3.     Oakland Athletics (88.5)
4.     Seattle Mariners (81.5)
5.     Houston Astros (62.5)

Division highlight: Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers. Since I feel compelled to highlight two teams I’ll keep this one extra short. The Mariners won the proverbial jackpot by landing Robinson Cano, arguably the best overall player in the American League, and certainly the Yankees best player at the time – he might still be. Cano will suffer drastic power declines in the vast ocean that is Safeco Field, but he’s a major addition regardless. The Rangers are an interesting story. Just when you think Texas couldn’t go any bigger they landed the biggest guy in the league…literally. Prince Fielder brings his king-sized vegetarian appetite and bat to Texas, where he should fit right in...well, except for the vegetarian part. He’ll be back to eating meat in no time. Add Alex Rios and Shin-Soo Choo to that list of “Ways Texas Can Get Even More Dangerous” and we have quite a formidable team in the Rangers.


NL EAST

1.     x-Atlanta Braves (87.5)
2.     y-Washington Nationals (88.5)
3.     Philadelphia Phillies (76.5)
4.     New York Mets (73.5)
5.     Miami Marlins (69.5)

Division highlight: New York Mets. In a division that won’t change much in 2014, the Mets are still reeling from the Bernie Madoff scandal and Matt Harvey’s season-ending injury. The Mets signed Curtis Granderson in hopes of easing the pain, but his 30 HRs won’t ease the pain of Harvey’s absence…and neither will his .220 batting average. It could be a long season in NYC if the Yankees can’t pull it together in the Bronx across the way from Queens. Two new(er) stadiums, two new(er) empty stadiums in the hot city sun.


NL CENTRAL

1.     x-St. Louis Cardinals (90.5)
2.     y-Cincinnati Reds (84.5)
3.     Pittsburgh Pirates (83.5)
4.     Milwaukee Brewers (79.5)
5.     Chicago Cubs (69.5)

Division highlight: St. Louis Cardinals. You could argue that the Cardinals are the most boring team in Major League Baseball. The Cardinals seem like the kind of team you haven’t seen on ESPN in four months and all of a sudden they’re in the pre-World Series highlights. It happened last season. I just reminded you, didn’t I? The fact that Boston and St. Louis tied for an MLB-leading 97 wins last year still blows my mind. St. Louis has been to four World Series in the past ten years, more than any team in a decade span since the Yankees went four times in the in the 2000s, or even more impressively, six times from 1996-2003. Sound scouting and drafting, heady free agency moves, and a stable front office/ownership have made the Cardinals a model franchise, and I assume they’ll be right there again this year. The Atlanta Braves also strike out too much, which doesn’t hurt.


NL WEST

1.     *x-Los Angeles Dodgers (92.5)
2.     San Francisco Giants (86.5)
3.     Arizona Diamondbacks (80.5)
4.     San Diego Padres (78.5)
5.     Colorado Rockies (76.5)

X - Division winner
y - Wild Card
* - Best record

Division highlight: Los Angeles Dodgers. What other team would I highlight? This Dodgers team is a show, that’s for sure. It’s only fitting that the King of Showtime part-owns these bunch of…characters we’ll call them. The Dodgers are the kind of team that could be the poster team for underachievement, or they could be the team we sent to a distant galaxy to represent The Milky Way in the Universe Series. If you don’t catch my joke, the Dodgers are stacked. When 3-time All-Star and former Cy Young candidate Dan Haren is your 4th starter, you have options. The biggest worry for the Hollywood team is Mr. Hollywood himself, the man two years removed from a floating plastic pile, Yasiel Puig. Word on the street is that Puig’s off-field behavior is so out of control and his on-field mental errors are so costly that any cooling of the bat is cause for demotion. That’s a far cry from this time last year, when a formerly illegal immigrant signed, making more money than every person reading this blog will ever make in their lives…combined. Kind of makes me want to root against the Dodgers.


AL Teams I project with the most wins over/under their over/under for wins in 2014:

Cleveland Indians: 88 wins (7.5 wins OVER projections)
Chicago Black Sox: 68 wins (7.5 wins UNDER projections)

NL Teams I project with the most wins over/under their over/under for wins in 2014:

Cincinnati Reds: 90 wins (5.5 wins OVER projections)
Chicago Cubs: 63 wins (6.5 wins UNDER projections)



The Playoffs

AL WILDCARD: Tampa Bay over Los Angeles Angels

NL WILDCARD: Washington over Cincinnati

AL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF:

Detroit over Tampa Bay
Texas over Boston


NL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF:

St. Louis over Washington
Atlanta over Los Angeles Dodgers




ALCS: Detroit over Texas

NLCS: St. Louis over Atlanta

WORLD SERIES: Detroit over St. Louis

WORLD CHAMPIONS: Detroit Tigers



Award Winners:

AL MVP: Mike Trout, 1B, Los Angeles Angels

NL MVP: Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals

AL CY YOUNG: David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

NL CY YOUNG: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers


AL Rookie of the Year: Xander Bogaerts, 3B, Boston Red Sox

NL Rookie of the Year: Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds

MOST SAVES: Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves


AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR: Ned Yost, Kansas City Royals

NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR: Matt Williams, Washington Nationals

Strap on your cleats for another great season and let's PLAY BALL! (more clichés)

Stay tuned next week for my post on the plight of the sub-six-foot QB...thanks for reading.