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Friday, January 10, 2020

Week 19: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON 
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 19:  #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION


2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6 .538 (O/U)

TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
48-23-3 (.676)

2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
 0-4 .000 (WINS); 2-2 .500 (ATS); 0-4 .000 (O/U)
 
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider


NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
< Drake voice >
"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
 
Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!



 Anthony Barr will need to step it up if he's going to help the Vikings beat the mighty 49ers at home.


Minnesota Vikings (6) 10-6 (+7) @ San Francisco 49ers (1) 13-3 (44.5): 49ers 27-21
Saturday, 4:35 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Clearing; mid-50s)
Keys: How do I put this? The 49ers are better on every single level. Offense. Defense. Special teams. Coaching. In fact, Kyle Shanahan used to be Kirk Cousin’s coach. You like that? In fact, the only area the Vikings even compete with the 49ers in is pass rush: Both teams rank 5th with 48 sacks on the season. One might think these defenses rank out similarly, but not when we take into account SoS, in which the 49ers was nearly twice as difficult. Now, I’m clearly no expert, having gone 0-4 last week and only 2-2 ATS, but there’s not that much to dissect with this game. The Vikings roll into San Francisco halfway across the country with a defense not quite as stout as it once was and two stars on offense that aren’t 100% (Dalvin Cook; Adam Thielen). The 49ers roll out of fresh bed fresh as a daisy with the highest rated player in the NFL according to PFF (George Kittle) and the most depth at RB of any team in the league. Seven points is a lot to lay in any NFL game, especially a playoff game, and especially to a team coming off a playoff win by a team that hasn’t played in two weeks, but the 49ers winning is likely a foregone conclusion. 
 


The question on everyone's mind is whether or not likely 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson can not only handle the rain, but the long rest.

 


Tennessee Titans (6) 9-7 (+9.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (1) 14-2 (47): Ravens 28-20

Saturday, 8:15 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 70% rain; low 60s) 

Keys: Can the Titans slay two giants back-to-back? Well, the Patriots were largely overrated giants this season and the Ravens haven’t played meaningful football in nearly three weeks. That could be trouble, because not only is Baltimore relying on a well-oiled machine, some of the parts are broken and might not be repaired by Sunday (Mark Ingram; Mark Andrews). The Titans might seem like the dark horse favorite here, but their offense, one of the best in the NFL the second half of the season, was held to 14 against the Patriots on Ryan Tannehill’s 72 passing yards; Derrick Henry’s 182-yard performance was allowed by Bill Belichick so he could focus on the Titans air attack, which was stifled. The Ravens rank out as one of the better teams in the past few decades, let alone this season, but things could be much different with a sizable break, pouring rain and key pieces missing; losing Ingram could be devastating. The Ravens have locked down opposing passing games since they traded for Marcus Peters, so it’ll be up to Henry again, although the Ravens largely lock that down, too, ranking in the top-10 in attempts, yards and TDs (21st YPA, however). The bottom line is the Ravens likely win due to their suffocating defense and home field advantage, and the fact that their scoring and yardage offense and scoring and yardage defense rank an eye-pleasing 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th, but like we talked about with the MINvsSF game, 9.5 points is a crazy amount, especially under these weather and rest conditions. Mortgage on the Titans time? 
 


Will he screw it up?
 


Houston Texans (4) 10-6 (+9.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2) 12-4 (51): Chiefs 31-23

Sunday, 3:05 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Mostly Sunny; high 30s)

Keys: The Texans narrowly escaped with a win in the Wild Card Round, mounting one of the largest playoff comebacks in NFL history against the Buffalo Bills, but as impressive as that is, the Bills offense isn’t the Chiefs offense and New Era Stadium isn’t Arrowhead Stadium. Josh Allen also isn’t Patrick Mahomes, but Deshaun Watson is. In fact, the two QBs, taken two spots from each other in the 2017 NFL draft, is arguably more dynamic than Mahomes, although no one is arguing who has the better arm talent. In addition, both QBs have struggled relatively this season, whether via injury or lack of support. Coaching plays a large role, too, as both coaches have famously fumbled away home playoff games. The Chiefs have an elite passing game, and believe it or not, a quasi-elite passing defense. The Chiefs also rank 11th with 45 sacks. The Texans are none of these things. Much like Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, the Texans are too Watson reliant, which is ironic considering NRG Stadium used to be called Reliant Stadium, and this Chiefs defense is good enough to stifle Watson, and, therefore, the Texans. However, I hate these large point spreads and even this match up isn’t lopsided enough to warrant nearly 10 points. 
 


It's Russell Wislon or bust for the Seattle Seahawks, but what else is new since the fall of the Legion of Boom?
 

Seattle Seahawks (5) 11-5 (+4.5) @ Green Bay Packers (2) 13-3 (46.5): Seahawks 23-21
Sunday, 6:40 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Wintry mix; high 20s) 
Keys: Introducing the two most overrated teams in the NFL. We’ve talked all year about the Seahawks mediocrity disguised by Russell Wilson’s polish, but before you go thinking I’m about to write the same thing about Green Bay, think again. The Packers might have won the same amount of games with Alex Smith because Aaron Rodgers has become the most glorified game manager since 2001-2003 Tom Brady. But Aaron Rodgers doesn’t throw any INTs! Right, because he doesn’t take any chances. It’s hard to throw INTs when you never take risks. If you think I’m kidding look no further than the Packers middle-of-the-pack offense, which is anchored by that middle-of-the-road passing game (17th ATS; 16th YDS; 14th TDs; 16th YPA). The running game is literally no better, ranking almost identically across the board, despite Aaron Jones, a nearly 1,100-yard rusher with 16 TDs on the season. No, the Packers owe most of their season to a decent defense (9th ranked scoring defense) and one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Even so, Green Bay’s Expected W-L Record was 9.7-6.3, which would have been good enough for a six-seed, not one of the two byes awarded the NFC. Hey, at least it’s better than Seattle’s Expected W-L Record of 8.2-7.8, which means, technically, the Seahawks should’ve missed the playoffs completely. However, you can ask Billy Beane about the numbers – they don’t always tell the whole story, hence the Seahawks v. the Packers in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Don’t be fooled by the Seahawks defensive performance against Josh McCown, because they’ve been mostly abysmal, but we just talked about the Packers offense in the same light. So what gives? At this point in 2020 I’m not betting on Rodgers anymore, but I'm certainly not betting against Russell Wilson and it’s about as simple as that. Like a “pack of badgers”, what ever the hell that mix of Wilson’s college teams is supposed to mean. Maybe it means it’ll feel like a home game for Wilson, which only supports my assertions.





Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 19 #NFL Game Reviews DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION coming Wednesday!


 












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