2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 13: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
THANKSGIVING WEEK EDITION
THANKSGIVING WEEK EDITION
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 12:
10-4 .714 (WINS); 9-5 .643 (ATS); 7-7 .500 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
117-57-1 .672 (WINS); 93-78-4 .544 (ATS); 97-75-3
.564 (O/U)
WEEK 12 TOP 5 GAMES:
3-2 (.667)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
37-21-2 (.638)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro
Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5
and watch the money pile up all season!
It's that time of the year when everyone over the age of 40 tries to explain to everyone under the age of 40 that Madden was an actual person and FIFA is not.
Chicago
Bears 5-6 (-2.5)
@ Detroit Lions 3-7-1
(39):
Bears
20-17
Thanksgiving,
12:30
PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: When
the season began many experts circled this game as a potential window
into the NFC North divisional race and the playoff picture as the last quarter
of the season approached. Instead, these are two of the most
disappointing teams in the league, especially the Bears, who had
Super Bowl LIV aspirations heading into 2019 following a 12-4 season
the year before. The problem in Chicago has largely been the QB; Mitch(ell) Trubisky is rated 30th
in the league. The problem in Detroit has been anything but Matthew
Stafford, save his cap-crippling salary, but what else is new? Has
Stafford ever
been the
problem?
Truth
be told, the Lions expected W-L record according
to Pro Football Reference is 5-6, meaning the Lions have shot
themselves
in the foot at least twice this season. That certainly isn’t new,
and therein lies the problem. Talk of a Lions curse has permeated the
league for 50 years, just ask believers in
Bobby Lane. This game comes down to the Bears 4th
ranked defense (scoring;
yards allowed)
taking on a Lions offense that ranks 11th
in scoring and 9th
in yards, but are without Stafford again as Jeff Driskel sits
at questionable
on
the injury report. The bottom line is you can’t trust Trubisky to
score points and you obviously can’t trust Driskel
week-to-week, so this game will be the one you ignore while staring
into the turkey oven.
At least you aren’t thinking the same thing Trubisky is when he
stares into his oven. What, I meant he might have to become a baker, jeez...
Buffalo
Bills 8-3 (+7)
@ Dallas Cowboys 6-5
(45):
Cowboys
24-20
Keys: We
move on from the appetizer game to the main course, a battle between
a Cowboys team trying to bounce back from a cold, wet loss in New
England and a Bills team that’s shockingly still relevant as December
approaches. There’s no rest for the weary, as the Cowboys go from
facing the best defense since the Ravens defenses
of the early oughts to facing a Bills team that ranks 3rd
in scoring defense, 3rd
in yards allowed and 3rd
in passing ypa. Looks like Ezekiel Elliot gets another chance to prove he's worth $50 million guaranteed. As Dak
Prescott navigates the Bills stellar passing defense, watch out for
Josh Allen, who has quietly put together an amazing sophomore season,
throwing for 15 TDs and only 8 INTs while rushing for 387 yards and 7
more TDs. On paper the Cowboys top-10 defense (7th
scoring defense; 6th
yards allowed)
should be able to stuff the Bills offense, but paper hasn’t
translated to the field consistently, and the Cowboys have yet to
beat a team with a winning record this season. That streak ends on Thanksgiving,
because not only do the Cowboys have to beat a quality team at some
point, that point has to be now as they can take control of the NFC
East and win back the hearts of their distracted fans on Thanksgiving and
save Jason Garrett’s job.
Thanksgiving,
8:20
PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: As
the tryptophan cuddles up to postprandial somnolence we’ll slip
deep into sleep and miss the Saints beating
the Falcons in
a low-scoring game and
wrap up the NFC South by Thursday of Week 13. Now that I’ve jinxed
the
game
we’ll probably get a 43-38 barn-burner. Or will we? Something in
the Falcons defense has suddenly sparked, whether a function of Dan
Quinn’s impending canning or professionals tiring
of under-performance,
and
the Saints, well, are sort of over-performing. In
fact, this very Week 10 match-up is what sparked a
Falcons
two-game winning streak after they shocked the Saints in New Orleans
26-9 following their Week 9 bye.
According
to Pro Football Reference, the Saints should be 7-4 and the Falcons
4-7, numbers based on point differential records using
Bill James’ pythagorean expectation equation.
It stands to reason considering the Saints went 5-0 with a backup QB,
while the Falcons have had an abysmal season with one of the best
passing attacks in the NFL. If
we’re being honest, Drew Brees hasn’t looked great
since his return from thumb surgery, but most of that could be
contributed to age; at 41 Brees clearly doesn’t have the same arm
strength, and doesn’t have the mobility, either, as these Falcons
sacked him six times Week 10. I wouldn’t expect a repeat of that,
per
se, but
these Falcons can hang with these Saints.
Note: Due to the holiday and Phish tour the games will not include lengthy summaries or pictures, but rather score predictions with minimal analysis. The same time went into research, just not writing the summaries; PFM returns to normal business practices Week 14. Thanks for your understanding and support.
New
York Jets 4-7
(-3)
v. Cincinnati Bengals 0-11
(49): Jets 24-17
Sunday,
1:00
PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: 30% rain; low 50s)
Keys: This game is a joke and no one cares, not even their fans. Don't be fooled by any Jets progress in this game, or surprised if the Bengals win.
Tennessee
Titans 6-5 (+2.5)
@ Indianapolis Colts 6-5
(43.5): Titans 24-20
Keys: Do these teams play each other every week?
Philadelphia
Eagles 5-6
(-10)
@ Miami Dolphins 2-9
(45): Eagles 27-23
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: Perfect trap game for the team that's "about to get back on track any week". Look for the Dolphins to cover at least.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 90% wintry mix; high 30s)
Keys: The Packers need to get their act together and what better team to do that against than the Giants in weather they happen to thrive in.
Cleveland
Browns
5-6
(-2)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 6-5
(39): Browns 23-20
Keys: This game will be without Myles Garrett or Mason Rudolph, which is almost like Kyrie Irving wimping out of the Boston Celtics game, but not really, just in the sense we want to hear incessant booing and chaos.
Washington
Pigskins 2-9 (+10)
@ Carolina Panthers 5-6
(40): Panthers 24-17
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: 80% rain; low 60s)
Keys: The Pigskins are terrible and the Panthers are still trying to prove they're relevant while not trying to waste Run CMC's MVP season.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 40% storms; low 80s)
Keys: Who cares about the score, the question is how many INTs will Jameis Winston throw?
Sunday,
1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 100% rain; low 40s)
Keys: The 49ers are mediocre at one thing: stopping the run. The Ravens excel at running the ball. Yep, it's one of those classics and a likely glimpse of Super Bowl LIV. Baltimore is good, but 5.5-points better? Maybe so in the cold rain...
Los
Angeles Rams 6-5 (-3)
@ Arizona Cardinals 3-7-1
(47.5): Cardinals 28-24
Keys: One of these teams was rebuilding from scratch while the other was a Super Bowl contender. It's interesting that the opposite will apply to these two teams in 2022.
Los
Angeles Chargers 4-7
(-3)
@ Denver Broncos 3-8
(38.5): Chargers 21-17
Keys: Meh.
Sunday,
4:25
PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Breezy; high 30s)
Keys: 10 points seems like a lot for two teams that have been inconsistent to say the least, especially in the driving wind.
New
England
Patriots 10-1
(-3)
@ Houston Texans 7-4
(45): Patriots 24-23
Sunday,
8:20
PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: The Patriots have the Texans number, but New England's offense is literally a joke and Bill Belichick only seems to struggle with mobile QBs. I'm not saying that means the Patriots win, or even cover, but it's the reason for the spread.
Minnesota
Vikings 8-3
(+3)
@ Seattle Seahawks 9-2
(49.5): Seahawks 23-21
Keys: Perhaps the game of the week, the questions are which Vikings offense shows up and whether Super Russ can continue his heroics.
Stay tuned for the Tuesday's Gone: Week 13 #NFL Game Reviews THANKSGIVING WEEK EDITION coming Wednesday!
ProFootballMedia.com
@profootballmed
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