2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 10: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
SUNDAY EDITION
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 9:
9-5 .643 (WINS); 3-11 .214 (ATS); 8-6 .571 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
90-43-1 .677 (WINS); 69-63-2 .523 (ATS); 76-55-3
.580 (O/U)
WEEK 9 TOP 5 GAMES:
2-3 (.400)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
27-16-2 (.600)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Let's be honest, many of us thought after Hard Knocks the Oakland Raiders were going to be the laughingstock of the AFC.
Los
Angeles Chargers 4-5
(-1)
@
*Oakland Raiders 4-4
(49):
Raiders
24-21
Keys:
The Chargers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 26-11
drumming of arguably the best team in the NFL in the Green Bay
Packers. The Raiders are coming off a great home win v. the Detroit
Lions after coming off two tough losses in a winnable game at the
Houston Texans and a game v. those same Packers in which the final
score didn’t necessarily reflect
the game. Raiders QB Derek Carr also fumbled the go-ahead
TD out of the end zone, which could’ve put Oakland up 17-14 entering the half, but the rest is history. The truth is the spread
reflects
the public overreaction to
the LAC in
concert with Vegas’ understanding that the Raiders are much better
than the public realizes and the Chargers are, well, as bad or far
worse
than the public perception. Both teams are struggling with attrition
along their front lines (OAK:
O; LAC: D),
which comes into play protecting Carr from Joey Bosa (8.5
sacks)
and Melvin Ingram. These AFC West rivals match up perfectly in that
the Chargers 8th
ranked defense (Scoring
defense; yards allowed)
faces
a Raiders
offense ranked
8th
in
yards
gained and
11th
in
scoring
offense. Specifically, the keys to
the game are
the Raiders ground attack (6th
yards; 8th
ypa)
against
the Chargers
run
defense
(14th
ypa; 20th
yards gained)
and
the Chargers passing game (coincidentally
6th
yards & 8th
ypa)
against
the
Raiders pass
defense
(32nd
TDs; 32nd
yards allowed; 24th
INTs; 30th
ypa).
Neither team takes the ball away much, but only the Raiders hold on to the
ball, because the Chargers rank 19th
in TOs, which is something to keep an eye on. Look for the Raiders
to win and cover at home on the short week and
the under. Despite both team's offenses playing to their opponent's defensive weaknesses, both
teams combine to average only 43.1 ppg and
combine
to allow 45.7. * = OAK COVER
Baltimore
Ravens 6-2
(-10)
v. Cincinnati Bengals 0-8
(44.5):
Ravens
27-16
Sunday,
1:00
PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather:
Partly cloudy; low 70s)
Keys: The
Bengals aren’t technically the worst team in the NFL, but they’re
close. In fact, the last time these two teams played in Week 6
it was one of the Bengals closest games of the season. This
game comes down to a very simple concept: Running the football. The
Ravens are on a historic pace and could become the first team since
the 1977 Chicago Bears - led by the great Walter Payton - to average over
200 rushing ypg. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing yards, ypa and
rushing TDs and are second in attempts. The Bengals defense is dead last in
every one of those categories besides rushing TDs allowed, where the
rank 29th.
The Bengals also trot out rookie QB Ryan Finley in his debut, so that
about wraps it up.
Buffalo
Bills 6-2
(+3)
@
Cleveland Browns 2-6
(40):
Bills
23-20
Sunday,
1:00
PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather:
40%
rain;
low 50s)
Keys: Imagine
how insulted the Bills have to be getting three points to travel a
few hours to play the most over-hyped NFL team since the Browns moved
back to Cleveland. The Browns possess one of the worst passing games
in the NFL to compliment one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.
That’s a bad combo. Cleveland can’t stop the run and
then doesn’t have the ability to come back through the air, despite
having OBJ and Jarvis Landry on the roster. The Bills defense
(3rd
scoring & yards allowed)
has carried them all season, but Buffalo’s one weakness on defense
is against the run (20th
yards allowed; 19th
ypr),
so that cracks the door for Nick Chubb to get going and set up the
play action to Landry, the only WR with a favorable match up Sunday. There’s
nothing like looking across the field and contemplating your draft
choices.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Partly cloudy; low
40s)
Keys:
The
Mediocre Bowl
is not a good match up for the Bears. The Lions skill position player
grouping is one of the best overall groupings in the NFL, and the
Bears defense,
despite being ranked 6th
in scoring, 9th
in yards allows and 7th
in pass yards per attempt, matches up poorly with the Lions WRs along
their secondary. That’s to say nothing of an inconsistent and
systematically unlucky Lions team on the road against a desperate
Bears team clinging on to their season, but if Matthew Stafford can
get right by Sunday and picks apart the Bears secondary this game
could be over quickly. That’s a big “if” against a very good
Bears defense backed against the wall at home.
Andy Reid has a tough decision to make about Patrick Mahomes come Sunday morning.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather:
Sunny;
low 60s)
Keys: The
big question here is whether or not Patrick Mahomes plays. Even if he
doesn’t play, Matt Moore has played well in his absence. The Chiefs
once ridiculed defense is suddenly mediocre, which could be the most
overlooked aspect of this Mahomes-less Kansas City team. The Chiefs
pass defense ranks 9th
in ypa and Chris Jones is capable of great things. So even without
Mahomes, unless Derrick
Henry explodes, Ryan Tannehill won’t be able to generate enough
offense to keep pace with the Chiefs myriad weapons, no matter who’s
throwing the ball. * = KC COVER
Atlanta
Falcons 1-7
(+13)
@ New Orleans Saints 7-1
(51.5):
Saints
31-17
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: The
Falcons have packed it in for reasons in and out of their control and
the Saints are currently 5/1 odds to win Super Bowl LIV. This is
perhaps the most complete Saints team in the Sean Payton-Drew Brees
era, and for the first time in that era, NO has a defense that outranks
their offense. The only thing the Falcons do well is gain yards in
bunches because they still possess one of the best QB-WR combos in
the NFL (Matt
Ryan-Julio Jones et al),
but the Saints just happen to have a top-10 pass defense and a
secondary that matches up well with every WR on the Falcons team.
New
York Giants
2-7
(-2.5)
@ New York Jets 1-7
(43.5):
Jets
23-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Partly Sunny;
mid-50s)
Keys:
Isn’t
this cute. The two teams that share a stadium get to play each other.
So is there an advantage for the “home” team? Probably not. In
fact, I would argue the “away” Jets will have a more decided
advantage because they’ll look around and see their stadium adorned
in blue. Unfortunately for the Jets, they’re probably worse than
their cross-town rivals, despite much
loftier
preseason expectations. This game is a toss-out, but we must analyze.
If
you calculate these teams SoS against their point differential as the
good people at Pro Football Reference have, the Giants rank 28th
in the NFL; the Jets rank 31st.
The Jets expected W-L record, based on similar metrics, have the Jets
at 1-7. What do you know? The Giants have an expected record of
2.6-6.4, meaning, mathematically, they’re over a half win better
than their record suggests, which might seem ridiculous, but when you
dive deeper into the numbers, especially on the offensive side of the
ball, you see things that not only back up the math (10th
rush ypa; 18th
passing yards),
but beg the question: Why haven’t the Giants won even more
games? They end over 22% of their drives with a TO, worst in the NFL.
That’s why. The
keys to the game are whether the NFL’s top run defense can stop
Saqoun Barkley and if the Jets can take advantage of the Giants
inevitable turnover(s).
Sunday,
1:00
PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather:
Sunny;
low 80s)
Keys: It's the Cardiac Kid v. the Cover Kid. Feast-or-famine Jameis Winston leads the NFL in INT and is the 22nd QB in the league according to Pro Football Focus. By comparison, rookie Kyler Murray ranks 20th. Winston doesn't just throw picks, the team fumbles, too; the Bucs are ranked 31st in TO. The funny thing is the Bucs defense are ball-hawks, too, because they rank 3rd in takeaways. That might negate Tampa Bay's TO woes were it not for the Cardinals discipline. They rank 1st in TOs and Murray has only thrown 4 INTs, a third of what Winston has thrown. You could chalk that up to Bruce Arian's aggressive style, but we all know Jameis. Three of the Bucs first four losses have come by one possession, but the Cardinals don't make many mistakes and they don't lose to bad teams, so the cover is inevitable, the win is possible and the over has a great chance. * = ARZ COVER
Will Jameis throw it to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Arizona Cardinals?
Miami
Dolphins 1-7
(+10)
@ Indianapolis Colts 5-3
(44):
Colts
27-16
Keys:
The
Colts are coming off a tough loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the
middle of a playoff push and
the
Dolphins just got their first win of the season. Jacoby
Brisett is also questionable, but Brett Hoyer threw three TDs in
Brisett’s absence, and the Colts rank 9th
in rushing yards and 4th
in attempts, meaning they’ll run it all over the Dolphins, who rank
30th
and 31st
in those metrics, restrictively. Simply put the Dolphins are one of
the three worst teams in the NFL and the Colts are a sleeper
for a deep AFC playoff run. Miami might try to capitalize on the
Colts depleted secondary, but it might not matter. In other words,
there’s a reason for the 10-point spread, despite the Colts
uncertainty at starting QB.
Carolina
Panthers 5-3
(+5)
@ Green Bay Packers 7-2
(47):
Packers
26-23
Sunday,
4:25
PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather:
30% snow;
low 30s)
Keys: I
keep coming back to the Packers expected win-loss record of 5.4-3.6. Green Bay could easily be 5-4, and not via hyperbole,
but statistical analysis. The eye test should tell you the exact same
thing, because not only has the fate of the Packers begun to rest
more and more upon the shoulders of Aaron Rodgers, rather than the
beautiful balance between the three phases we witnessed through the
first few weeks of the season, Rodgers has been as lucky as he’s
been great. Interestingly
enough, the same people that calculate the expected win-loss record
rank the Packers 8th
via their SRS metric (Pro
Football Reference’s
metric qualifying
the
SoS and point differential).
That
makes sense though, considering that record would reflect that
position, rather than 3rd
in the NFL as their 7-2 record suggests. The
same could be said of the Panthers, in the context of relying on one
person, because without Christian McCaffery, who is silently on pace
to break the all-time scrimmage record and score 25+
TDs, the Panthers would be up the jungle with no claws. Rodgers won’t
have a field day because the ball-hawk Panthers (3rd
takeaways) happen to be one of the better passing defenses in the
league; the Packers don’t turn the ball over (3rd
TOs), though,
so it’ll be interesting to see who the more disciplined team is.
The
Panthers could take advantage of the snow and Run CMC and chew the
clock away, so look
for the Packers to
win,
but the Panthers to cover in
a game that barely hits the over.
Los
Angeles Rams 5-3
(-3.5)
@ *Pittsburgh Steelers 4-4
(44):
Rams
24-21
Keys: The
Steelers come into the game banged up on offense, but winners of
three straight and
four of their last five after starting the season 0-3. Four of those
five games also came at home, where the Steelers host the Rams
Sunday. The Steelers defense has been the reason for Pittsburgh’s
success (2nd
TOs; 3rd sacks; 10th
rush ypa; 7th
pass ypa),
as the offense dinks and dunks it’s way around the field trying not
to turn the
ball
over. Both teams are missing key guys (LAR:
Brandin Cooks; PIT: James Conner),
but the Rams have enough weapons to keep this game a classic top
offense v. top defense match up. The travel shouldn’t affect the
Rams with the late afternoon game, but the Steelers defense could
surprise them and steal a win at home as a rare home dog. It’s far more
likely the Steelers cover, but if you like the Pittsburgh money line
go ahead and take a risk. * = PIT COVER
Minnesota
Vikings
6-3
(+3)
@ Dallas Cowboys
5-3
(47.5):
Cowboys
24-23
Keys: These
could very well be the teams fighting for the NFC in January so
Sunday Night Football isn’t only the game of the week, but probably
the game of the year so far. The Vikings rank in the top-10 in yards,
TOs, points allowed, yards allowed, takeaways, sacks and INTs; the
Vikings 11th-ranked
scoring offense scores 26 ppg, 0.1 ppg behind the 10th-ranked
Carolina Panthers. The Cowboys are
even more impressive, albeit via an easier schedule through nine
weeks,
ranking
5th
points scored and 1st
yards gained with one of the best running and passing games in the
NFL, while holding opponents to the 5th
lowest points scored and the 6th
lowest yards per game. Both teams are loaded with talent on both
sides of the ball, and
both teams win games by similarly wide margins (MIN:
28.4-17.8; DAL: 26-17.6),
but
both teams will or could be without key guy on offense (MIN:
Adam Theilen, OUT; DAL: Amari Cooper, Q),
which affects Dak
Prescott and the
game total more than anything else. Look
for Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliot to battle for NFL RB supremacy as
the clock ticks away, another reason for leaning towards the under.
These
games are tough without the hook.
Ezekiel Elliot will try to prove he's the best running back in the NFL when the Dallas Cowboys face Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota Vikings Sunday.
*Seattle
Seahawks 7-2
(+6.5)
@ San Francisco 49ers 8-0
(46):
49ers
27-21
Monday,
8:15
PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather:
Clear;
low 60s)
Keys: If
it weren’t for the Sunday Night Game of the Week, both literally
and media-ly (I
made that up),
this NFC West match up would certainly be the game of the week. The
Seahawks are one of those strange teams where
they have no business being one of the best teams in the NFL, yet
here they are at 7-2, and Russell Wilson has no business being the
leading MVP candidate and motivation for your local Player Haters
Club, yet here he is married to Ciara with a 22:1 TD:INT ratio. The
49ers have all the business in the world being one of the best teams
in the league, one of only two ranked in the top-7 in scoring offense
and defense, yards gained and allowed and takeaways (Dallas
Cowboys).
You might call them the best in the league considering they’re 3rd
in sacks, 4th
in INTs and, oh yeah, the
only undefeated
team
left
in the NFL,
which
just happens to have
a more difficult SoS then the aforementioned
Cowboys.
The potential loss of TE
Greg
Kittle could be an obstacle, but the 49ers have hurdled that one
before. If this game were in Seattle I might be inclined to predict
the 49ers first loss of the season, but it’s not. Being on the road
doesn’t preclude DangeRuss and the Seahawks from covering, however. * = SEA COVER
Week 10 Byes: Denver Broncos; Houston Texans; Jacksonville Jaguars; New England Patriots; Philadelphia Eagles; Washington Pigskins
Stay tuned for the remaining Tuesday's Gone: Week 10 #NFL Game Reviews coming by Wednesday!
ProFootballMedia.com
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