2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone: Week 8 #NFL Game Reviews
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 8:
14-1 .933 (WINS); 8-6-1 .571 (ATS); 9-5 .643 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
81-39-1 .675 (WINS); 66-52-2 .559 (ATS); 68-49-3
.618 (O/U)
WEEK 8 TOP 5 GAMES:
2-2-1 (.500)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
23-15-2 (.605)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro
Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5
and watch the money pile up all season!
Trust me when I tell you that this is all Washington Pigskin fans will be thinking about tonight.
Thursday, 8:20 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
(Weather: Indoors)
Keys:
The problem with the NFL this season is there are about five absolutely
awful teams, present company included, and about five teams capable of
beating anyone any given Sunday, present company included. So anytime a
team like the Vikings or the New England Patriots plays a team like the
Pigskins or the Miami Dolphins, the question isn't the money line or the
even necessarily the spread, but the O/U. Case in point: This game. The
Vikings have one of the best ground games in the NFL; the Pigskins
allow over 134 rushing yards per game. The Pigskins have two offensive
players rated "above average" or "high quality" via Pro Football Focus;
the Vikings have two at every level of their defense, including three
elite-graded players. This is to say nothing of a Washington defense
ranked no higher than 20th in points or yards allowed facing arguably
the most dynamic offense in the NFL. That's where the O/U comes in. At
PFM we don't try to hit here and there - we try to hit the entire game.
We seem to hit these lopsided match ups every week in 2019, where one
team beats the other by 30+ points, but the loser is so inept they don't
even contribute to the O/U, but the O/Us are so low by today's NFL
standards the games are almost impossible to gauge. Well, here we go:
Take the under because these Pigskins might not even score on the
Vikings at home on the short week, I don't care how great Terry McLaurin
has been.
The Vikings had a chance on 4th & 5 to score and cover, but it never happened and many people lost money because the Vikings are the team that gets everyone on board with and then pulls the plug the second the bandwagon is full.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: One
could argue this game is about one of the luckiest teams in the NFL
v. one of the worst in the NFL. The Seahawks are certainly the worst
5-2 team in the NFL, while the Falcons could be the best one-win team
in the NFL. That’s
a joke. Consider:
The Seahawks SRS (PFR
metric analyzing SOS v. point differential)
is ranked 16th
of 32 teams while
the Falcons defense, led by Dan Quinn, the supposed guru who ran the
Legion of Boom, is abysmal. Atlanta is tops in the NFL in allowing
opposing drives to end in a score (52%)
and last in the league at forcing TOs.
What that means is the Seahawks mediocre offense should thrive, but
their pass defense could struggle because they can’t produce any
pass rush and passing is literally the only
thing
Atlanta is good at. Except Matt Ryan is out. Womp womp. Seattle’s
MOV is
only
0.71 ppg, but that number increases to 7.6 ppg on the road. What do
you know? * = SEA COVER
I was a FG from predicting this game perfectly, so of course the Seahawks pushed.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather:
80% rain;
low 60s)
Keys: How
long can the Eagles keep this up? The same could be asked about the
Buffalo Bills. Luckily for the Eagles they reside in the NFC East,
where an 8-8 record could launch a playoff run; not so for the Bills
over in the AFC East, who despite being 5-1, their best opening
record in over 10 years, are already 1.5 games behind the New England
Patriots and on the wrong side of the tiebreaker. The
bottom line is this: The Eagles deep threats are gone and seemingly
never coming back, and the offensive line is in shambles, whether due
to attrition, miscommunication, chemistry or all of the above. The
Bills have a nasty defense, ranked 3rd
in points and yards allowed, as well as being ranked in the top-10 of
myriad other more complex metrics. But not sacks. That’s key,
because if the Eagles are going to get back on track it’ll be
through the air. On
the defensive side of the ball, the Eagles stop the run well, which
is about the only thing the Bills do well on offense. Which one
caves? Another
thing to note is Buffalo giving up 21 to Miami on the road last week,
which wasn’t only strange, but potentially telling. Buffalo was
losing 14-9 entering the 4Q, and if not for a 22-7 explosion in the
4Q, would have been the first to lose to the lowly Dolphins.
The Eagles went into the half up 11-7 after a hurricane ripped through Buffalo, but as things calmed down in the 2nd half, the Eagles ramped it up, scoring ten more points than anyone has scored against Buffalo all year. They have Orlando Scandrick to thank for that. One of five PFM sweeps in week 8.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Partly Sunny;
low 50s)
Keys:
Before
you go running to the window to bet the Bears defense against the Los
Angeles Orphans, consider a few things. First, the spread is telling
at 3.5. The opening line was nearly a TD (6).
Second, the Chargers can’t possibly be a road team because they
don’t have a home. Finally, the Bears are terrible. Even the lauded
defense is nothing like advertised, although still ranked in the
top-10 in points, yards allowed
and TOs. The Bears also don’t get to the QB, which will play right
into the hands of the statuesque Philip Rivers. The Chargers are one of the
best teams in the NFL at throwing the ball (1st
attempts, completions & yards),
although it doesn’t amount to much (10th
INTs;
21st TDs; 27th
net yards per pass).
The bottom line here is Chicago’s offense, which is non-existent.
The Bears rank in the lower quarter of the NFL in everything but pass
attempts, and who the hell knows why Matt Nagy allows that. There
might not be two more disappointing teams in the NFL than the
Chargers (-0.01
point differential)
and the Bears (1.2
point differential).
This game exactly as we thought it would, mostly due to the Bears inept offense, and these two teams kept their point differentials intact.
The Detroit Lions have toiled in mediocrity for decades, but at least Matthew Stafford is set for generations.
New
York Giants 2-5
(+6.5)
@ Detroit Lions 2-3-1
(49.5):
Lions
27-24 Lions 31-26
Sunday,
1:00
PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: The
Lions have won two games this season, the same as the NYG, and their
two wins have come with a MOV of 3 ppg. These teams also allow the
same number of points (26.7
ppg),
although the NYG have the tougher schedule (NYG:
2.02 SOS v. DET: 1.52 SOS, according to PFR).
You could even consider losses to New England (NYG)
and Kansas City (DET)
as canceling each other out. The Lions are also the 5th-worst run
defense in the NFL and Saquon Barkley is a beast. So are we saying Ford Field and Matt Stafford is worth 6.5 points? Hell no.
I told you not to take the points. One of five PFM sweeps in week 8.
*Tampa
Bay Buccaneers 2-4
(+2.5)
@ Tennessee Titans 3-4
(45.5):
Bucs
24-20 Titans 27-23
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather:
Partly Sunny;
low 60s)
Keys: The
Buccaneers are coming off their bye week and Bruce Arians was 4-1
coming off bye weeks in five years as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. I’d
almost argue that’s enough to beat an inconsistent Titans
team with a losing record at home because the Bucs win on the road. The key to this game will be TOs. If the Bucs
keep them down, they likely win, as the Titans haven’t faced an
offense anywhere near the Bucs 4th-ranked scoring offense. Tampa Bay
is 28th
in TOs, mostly due to Jameis Winston’s eyesight, but the Titans
defense only ranks 19th
in takeaways; the Bucs defense surprisingly ranks 6th
in takeaways, but the Titans don’t cough it up (2nd).
The Titans defense is stout, however, and the Bucs offense relies
on scoring in bunches. Case in point: The Bucs have lost three of their last four
games and have scored at least 24 points in each game. Therein lies
the key: The Titans don't have the firepower to score 24 points, so
if the Bucs can hold on to the ball, it’s a wrap. *
=
TB COVER
This was the only money line game I got wrong this week and it was because the officials blew another whistle and another crucial call, negating a Bucs fumble return for the go-ahead TD in the 4Q. These officials are costing people money and their perfect reputations. This was the only game PFM got completely wrong in Week 8. F*ck you, NFL officials.
Denver
Broncos 2-5 (+5.5)
@ Indianapolis Colts 4-2
(42.5):
Colts
26-21 Colts 15-13
Keys:
The
Broncos are a lot like the Bears: one of the best defenses in the
league (8th
points allowed; 4th
yards allowed)
to go along with one of the worst offenses in the league (29th
scoring; 25th
yards).
The big difference between the Broncos and the Bears is the Bears
haven’t given up yet, but the Broncos have, trading Emmanuel
Sanders this week in an obvious white flag wave. The Colts are the
opposite - a middle-of-the-pack team, statistically up and down, but
fresh off a two-game winning streak against the KC Chiefs and the
Houston Texans surrounding a refreshing bye week in which the Colts
stayed grinding, but rested.
What the hell was I thinking picking the over in this game. Hopefully you took the Broncos to cover because I doubt you took the money line at that value.
Sunday,
1:00
PM, Wembley
Stadium, London,
England
(Weather:
Sunny; mid-50s)
Keys: Remember
when the media went crazy trying to one-up each other with jokes
related to Zac Taylor’s hiring
as head coach of the Bengals? “If
you had a cup of coffee with Sean McVay you can get a head coaching
job in the NFL.” “If you had a conversation with Sean McVay once
at the water cooler you can get a head coaching job in the NFL.”
Well, Taylor is finding out why everyone was joking about it, but the
joke is on the Bengals ownership. But is it? The winless Bengals have
lost three games by four or fewer points. The brought the overrated
Seattle Seahawks to the brink in Seattle. They lost to the Arizona
Cardinals via a FG as the clock expired. The
Bengals are also 3-4 ATS this season, despite being a mockery. So
perhaps that comes into play here as the Rams haven’t exactly been
juggernauts on either side of the ball, and traveling to London is no
picnic for anyone, especially the team that has to travel 2,200 additional miles to do so.
This game hurt. Nailing the Rams wasn't difficult because they're not nearly as good as they think they are, but can I get another effing FG from these Bengals??? Losing a spread call by 1.5 points when the entire world was on the Rams to cover is as tough a pill to swallow as any betting loss.
Don't blink or you might miss him, but rookie Kyler Murray is making some - but not all - of the haters eat their words.
*Arizona
Cardinals 3-3-1 (+10.5)
@ New Orleans Saints 6-1
(48):
Saints
27-24 Saints 31-9
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: Little
Kyler Murray on the turf-grass indoors??? Suffice it to say at this
point in the season any time the Cardinals are getting six or more
points I’m jumping all over it, I don’t care how good the Saints
have been. * = ARZ COVER
Sorry folks. I wasn't sure Drew Brees would even play based on the fake letters being sent around the Internet Saturday, but I certainly didn't expect Brees to shake the rust off so quickly.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather:
30%
storms; mid-80s)
Keys: Metrically
the Jaguars are a decent football team. They don’t score a ton of
points (20th),
but they gain a lot of yards (9th);
on defense they bend (19th),
but they don’t break (12th).
The Jets are not a decent football team, although they’re a far
better team with Sam Darnold under center relative to whoever the
hell else they were trotting out there. This game will come down to
Leonard Fournette and the Jaguars 5th-ranked
rushing attack v. the Jets 11th-ranked
run defense in the rain and whether the Jaguars defense ranked 26th
in takeaways can finally rip it away from the Jets, who rank 28th
in TOs. The
Jets are 2-4 ATS this season, and one of those wins came on a
backdoor cover against the NE Patriots via a blocked punt
return
for TD and a pick-six off the Patriots back-up QB; the Jaguars are
4-3 ATS.
Nailing the Jets random score of 15 was almost enough to make me forget Sam Darnold's three INTs led to the Jaguars scoring the most points they have all season, thus destroying another PFM sweep. Sam Darnold has now thrown 8 INTs since he returned from kissing high school girls in the greater NY area two weeks ago.
*Carolina
Panthers 4-2 (+5.5)
@ San Francisco 49ers 6-0
(42.5):
49ers
24-21 49ers 51-13
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather:
Sunny; mid-70s)
Keys: Both
of these teams are two of the best in the NFC, but the Panthers two
losses could be chalked up to a much more difficult schedule. In
fact, when you weigh these teams SOS against their point
differential the 49ers rank 2nd
and the Panthers rank 5th
(Pro
Football Reference).
In other words, these two teams are pretty evenly matched and
they
match up well. The
49ers will also likely be without left tackle Joe Staley and the
Panthers happened to be the top pass rush in the NFL (27
sacks).
Therein
lies the key, at
least as far as the spread is concerned.
*
=
CAR COVER
Another Top 5 game blunder. Many had the 49ers winning, few had them covering, and I'm not sure anyone had the 49ers putting up 51 points on the Panthers the week they traded for Emmanual Sanders (4 receptions on 5 targets) because the 49ers were worried about production. Welp...
Cleveland
Browns 2-4
(+11.5)
@
New England Patriots 1-1 (44.5):
Patriots
24-10 Patriots 27-13
Sunday,
4:25
PM,
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather:
Heavy
rain; mid-60s)
Keys:
The weather might be the only thing keeping Baker Mayfield and the
Browns from getting humiliated Sunday. Jarvis Landry fell for the bait and
guaranteed a victory before walking it back. There could be a lot of
that going on Sunday, as the Brown are one of the penalized teams in
the league (3rd
penalty yards; 5th
penalties).
I
assume you figure the Patriots are one of the least. You’d be
correct. One can argue New England hasn’t faced any real offenses,
but do the Browns even count as one? The game is more than a bunch of
names after all. One could also argue the Browns haven’t seen a defense like
the Patriots yet, because no one in NFL history has.
This was the easiest sweep of all five PFM sweeps in Week 8 because the Browns are exactly who I thought they were.
If you stare too long you'll wake up inside a Good Guy doll stabbing strangers to death and chanting seances.
Oakland
Raiders 3-3
(+6.5)
@ Houston Texans 4-3
(51.5):
Texans
24-23 Texans 27-24
Sunday,
4:25
PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: I
won’t
be fooled again! Ok, maybe I will. Both teams possess mediocre
defenses at best, and although Houston has one of the most explosive
offenses in the NFL (4th
ypp; 5th
yards gained; 8th
scoring offense),
the Texans will be without Will Fuller, tackle Tytus Howard and
center Greg Mancz. In
other words, I’m about to tell you to take the 6.5 points and ride
the mighty seas again, matey.
I guess it's only fair when I bitch about missing game totals by 1.5 points I should probably point out games like these, where I got the total by the skin of my teeth. But when you predict the game within four points of the total and almost nail the score for each team, it's hard to point out where you almost went wrong. Notice I'm getting a little cockier about my calls? Five consistent years with no one noticing will do that to a man's ego. One of five PFM sweeps in week 8.
Sunday,
8:20
PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather:
Clear;
high 50s)
Keys: It’s
probably a good thing Patrick Mahomes isn’t playing in this game or
else we’d already be so sick of hearing about Aaron Rodgers v.
Mahomes, past v. future, old v. new that we’d probably avoid the
game just to keep our sanity. Now we get to watch this game in prime time and
laugh as someone unfamiliar with the NFL asks, “Who’s
that?”, when
we inevitably see one of the 317 State Farm commercials featuring the two QBs, because
they’ll only recognize Rodgers from the game. With Mahomes healthy
this game is KC -3, and only because of the famous Arrowhead
advantage. In other words, these are two evenly matched teams. I want
to dive deep into the metrics and find a reason why the
Chiefs could cover, but I just see it as the perfect opportunity for
Rodgers’ ego to come in and show the NFL he’s still the best QB
in the NFL. * = OVER
The Packers won on another miracle throw by Aaron Rodgers, but this time Rodgers actually admitted it was a miracle, pointing out the throw was meant for 6'6" Jimmy Graham and not 5'10" Aaron Jones. If only he'd be truthful about all those Hail Mary throws that the media insists he throws on purpose. Take away message? How the hell did the Packers supposedly stout defense allow 24 points from a reeling Chiefs team? Either these Packers are frauds or the league is in trouble when Patrick Mahomes returns. One of five PFM sweeps in week 8.
Miami
Dolphins 0-6
(+14)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 2-4
(43.5):Steelers 27-10 Steelers 17-14
Monday,
8:15
PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
Clear;
low 50s)
Keys: Thanks
for giving us one of the worst games imaginable for MNF, football
gods. Or should I say NFL schedule makers, because everyone knew the
Dolphins would be trash in 2019, and some people who analyzed
football said the same thing about the Steelers. Well if you look
further, the Steelers four losses have come at 7-0 New England,
against 5-2 Seattle, at 6-0 San Francisco and against 5-2 Baltimore.
The
Dolphins are dreadful, but they managed to cover against the Bills
last week, and Buffalo has one of the best defenses in the NFL. The
Dolphins have actually covered two weeks in a row now, after losing
their first four ATS, but the crowd will be hype for MNF, and the
Dolphins aren’t just the worst team in the league via the eye test,
but literally (31st
scoring offense & yards gained; 30th
yards allowed; last points allowed).
I'd bitch about the Dolphins covering, but they could've easily won and then we'd have even more explaining to do. Thank god the Dolphins realized they were in danger of squandering the #1 pick and came to their senses, laying down in the second half.
BYEs: Baltimore Ravens; Dallas Cowboys
Stay tuned for Week 9: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday & Saturday!
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