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Thursday, January 10, 2019

Week 19: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFFS EDITION

2018 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
 
  Week 19: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFFS EDITION



2018 NFL Playoffs: 
WILD CARD ROUND: 2-2 .500 (WINS); 4-0 1.000 (ATS); 3-1 .750 (O/U)
2018 season totals: 
167-87-2 .652 (WINS); 119-129-8 .480 (ATS); 140-113-3 .553 (O/U) 

Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines of games from Vegas Insider


Will he screw it up?


Indianapolis Colts 11-6 (+5.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 12-4 (57): Colts 30-28

Saturday, 4:35 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Cloudy; high 30s)


Reasons: The man who’s largely responsible for the Eagles success last year faces the man who’s known for not quite getting the Eagles where they should’ve been all those McNabb years. The reason for the latter is well documented, specifically Chiefs head coach Andy Reid’s innate ability to crush the regular season just to mismanage the clock right down to an early exit from the playoffs despite having a top seed and the bye. The last time these two teams played with any semblance of their current structure was in 2013 when Andrew Luck led the Colts to a 45-44 barn-burning win, in which the Chiefs led 31-10 at halftime only to see Luck open up for 35 second-half points to steal the victory. Luck threw the game-winning TD to TY Hilton with just over four minutes remaining in the game and the rest is history. That could be a familiar sight come Saturday, but the unfamiliar sight will be plausible MVP Patrick Mahomes (5,097 passing yards; 52 Total TDs; 12 INTs) at the helm rather than Alex Smith, RIP. Mahomes has all the hype, but it’s Luck (39 passing TDs) who should probably be winning the MVP award in 2018, and it’s the Colts who have the hottest team in the NFL with the head coach largely responsible for Philadelphia’s mercurial rise last season. The Chiefs have been home resting, a recipe for disaster for teams built on finesse, timing and getting off to fast starts. The Chiefs crush everyone on offense and then sit back and let the clock expire as the opposing team scrambles to catch up. The Colts are a complete team, top-10 in total offense, points scored and allowed, 3rd-down efficiency, INTs and takeaways, while being 11th in total defense. Although the Chiefs rank 1st in sacks and 9th in INTs, they rank as one of the worst defenses of all time, not just this year. Both teams are banged up on offense and the weather should be fine if not a little cold, so neither should affect the game much. What the game will come down to is a rookie quarterback with a ton of pressure to advance, who has been doing nothing but thinking about it for two weeks, with a coach that makes historically poor playoff coaching decisions against the hottest team in the playoffs with an experienced hungry quarterback with a coach who just went through all of this just last year. I usually don’t trust these high-flying one-dimensional barn burner type teams, especially without a defense, on a bye, after destroying the competition all season. I definitely don’t trust those type teams against a team like the Colts, and these aren’t your older brother’s dome Colts (5-4 on the road in 2018 including the playoffs with two dome games against the Houston Texans).


Much of the Los Angeles Rams regular season success was a function of Todd Gurley and the playoffs will be no different.

Dallas Cowboys 11-6 (+7) @ Los Angeles Rams 12-4 (49.5): Cowboys 28-27

Saturday, 8:15 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Chance rain; low 60s)

Reasons: Speaking of not trusting teams with first round byes that beat up on the competition all year, these Rams might be the least trust worthy of any of the home teams this weekend. The final month of the season, a pretty intuitive indicator of momentum heading into the playoffs, was disastrous for the Rams as they lost two games in Weeks 14-15 to two playoff-bound teams in which their offense was stalled almost completely before closing the season with two wins against two of the five worst teams in the NFL, arguably the worst two (ARZ; SF). Compound that with the questionable status of Todd Gurley, the gear that drives this Rams offense, and no Cooper Kupp, and you might have some trouble against a Cowboys team that either blows up or disintegrates upon feeling themselves. The Cowboys are officially feeling themselves after taking advantage of Sebastian Janikowski’s pathetic hamstring. You could argue as I did last week about the way Dallas ended their season with several one-possession games disguised as a winning streak, but I would counter with points about momentum, which the Cowboys have in spades, while the Rams are left thinking about what happened to them the last time they were in a similar position: They lost 26-13 to the Atlanta Falcons after going 11-5 and hosting a playoff game. Call the Rams a young team back then and I’ll remind you only a year has passed, and after selling the farm to put together a Super Bowl champion now, the pressure is on this relatively young team to not repeat last year. That’s a tough task against one of the league’s best defenses (6th PA; 7th total defense) and the league’s leading rusher (Ezekiel Elliot: 1434 rushing yards; 4.7 ypc; 6 TDs), but if any team can do it, it should be the team that finished the regular season the 2nd-ranked overall offense (Points scored & total offense). The Rams take the ball away (3rd) and usually via interception (3rd), so Dak Prescott beware, but this game ultimately comes down to the classic top-ranked offense versus top-ranked defense, and you know what they say. This time the top-ranked defense also has some sizzle on offense. Did you see Jerry Jones yacht??? 



 If you live outside of New England you hate this man.


Los Angeles Chargers 13-4 (+4.5) @ New England Patriots 11-5 (46): Patriots 24-23

Sunday, 1:05PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Chance snow; high 20s)



Reasons: Ahh, everyone outside of New England’s worst nightmare: The one season no one in the football world trusts the Patriots to make any noise, even within New England, and they land the 2nd seed, a first round bye, face a team that has never beaten them in the playoffs with their current QB situation (Philip Rivers v. Tom Brady) and the forecast calls for snow. What could go wrong for the team from Southern California traveling across the country to the Atlantic Ocean for the second week in a row that has never beaten this Tom Brady-led Patriots team in the playoffs? Don’t look now, but this Patriots team, the one that is supposedly one of the worst in the 18-year Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era, and likely is, is top-10 in pretty much everything that matters besides total defense (21st and debatable context), 3rd-down efficiency on either side of the ball and sacking the opposing QB (30th). Although glaring, those three aforementioned metrics pale in comparison to being top-seven in the NFL in points scored, total offense, offensive penalty yards, points allowed, TO ratio, takeaways and interceptions while entering the Divisional Round healthy and on the winning side of history. Speaking of history, the Chargers aforementioned woes against the Patriots with Philip Rivers at starting QB are well documented, to the tune of going 2-7 overall and 0-2 in the playoffs (2007 H & 2008 A) since Rivers first played the Patriots (2005); in fact, Rivers won the first game he ever played against Tom Brady and Brady was injured the second time a Rivers-led Chargers team beat the Patriots, so to Dad it probably seems like he’s never beaten the Golden Boy. Think it weighs on Rivers mind? Probably more than remembering how many kids he has. Maybe it should be noted that Brady lost his first game against the Chargers in 2001, then of San Diego, but probably not since all that makes the series in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era is 3-8 overall. The last time the Chargers came to Foxborough in January it was 2008 and the Patriots escaped 21-12; I see much of the same happening here. The Chargers are one of the most talented and statistically-sound teams on both sides of the ball in the NFL, but so are the Patriots, statistically anyway, and the travel, having no home, Philip Rivers’ legacy and these two team’s histories are all staring down Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers. I’m a regression-to-the-mean guy, and this four-game regular season and two-game playoff win streak won’t last forever, but the Patriots have a habit of breaking hearts outside of Baltimore and Denver in these home playoff situations. Patriots win, but the Chargers cover.


 I'm not sure even the Nice Guy Gods can help Drew Brees against Big Dick Nick.


Philadelphia Eagles 10-7 (+8) @ New Orleans Saints 12-4 (51): Saints 28-24

Sunday, 4:40 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)


Reasons: On paper it’s easy to say the Eagles have no chance. Not only are the Saints offense world beaters once again, they finally have a defense to match. Ok, maybe not match, but the Saints defense is 5th in sacks, 7th in defensive penalty yards and 14th in PA, total defense and takeaways, which may seem mediocre, but is literally 100% better (last to mid-range) than the Saints defense has been in years past when Drew Brees was an MVP candidate and the Super Bowl seemed attainable, but the defense was giving up 35+ ppg. Brees might win the MVP this year, and came within eight yards of another 4,000 yard passing season, but he sat the last game. The book is out on the Saints offense: They score a ton of points (31.5 ppg, 3rd), block well, have dynamic talent in Alvin Kamara (14 TDs) and Michael Thomas (1,405 receiving yards; 9 TDs), have veteran bangers like Mark Ingram and the pedigree to not be phased by the moment. Speaking of moments, what the hell is going on with Nick Foles and these Philadelphia Eagles? As I said in my Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots analysis, sometimes the mystic aspect of football overwhelms the logical and tangible aspects and a team rides momentum through the playoffs. Ask the 2011 New York Giants. Statistically the Eagles are good at one thing: Sacking the QB (8th). Now things are really getting freaky, because that’s all those 2011 Giants were good at, too. Well, they did have a dynamic receiver in Victor Cruz (Alshon Jeffery) and a quarterback that people didn’t think twice about, but managed to become the Super Bowl hero in Eli Manning (Nick Foles). The two teams even suffered similar adversity throughout their respective seasons. Wow, this is getting creepy, but these Eagles aren’t the 2011 Giants, in part because the Giants weren’t defending Super Bowl champions, and, in part, because Eli ain’t Big Dick Nick. At the end of the day the Saints are the only team I would assume wouldn’t lay an egg after enjoying the first round bye, but these Eagles are riding on some seriously wide wings right now, which means they’re covering for sure.


Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 19 #NFL Game Reviews DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION coming Friday!


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