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Thursday, December 13, 2018

Week 15 #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) SUNDAY EDITION


2018 NFL SEASON

P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A

Week 15 #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)


Week 14 results: 11-5 (WINS); 8-8 (ATS); 10-6 (O/U)

Season totals: 136-70-2 .660 (WINS); 98-103-7 .488 (ATS); 112-93-3 .546 (O/U)



Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS).



 Andy Reid has the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC driver's seat heading into the playoffs, which can only mean one thing: A probable early exit from the playoffs.


Los Angeles Chargers 10-3 (+3.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 11-2 (56.5): Chiefs 28-27
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Wintry mix; high 30s)

Reasons: Assuming the weather predictions hold true Kansas City could have two decided advantages heading into Thursday night’s game, because let’s be honest, whether the Chargers hail from San Diego or Los Angeles or somewhere near those places in a town called Carson, the Chargers are not built for bad weather. To make matters worse, no team is built to play in Kansas City, where the Chiefs home crowd will make things miserable for Phillip Rivers (29 TDs; 6 INTs), especially if Melvin Gordon can’t go, because his back-up Austin Eckler is out for the game. The Chiefs are well known by now, with MVP candidate and virtual rookie Patrick Mahomes throwing 43 TDs with two games remaining, and now that Justin Houston is back a historically bad defense suddenly seems legit, at least as far as pressuring the quarterback goes (2nd sacks). If this game were in Fresno or Riverside or even Carson I’d be inclined to pick the Chargers to win as Los Angeles dominates both sides of the ball, but the game is at Arrowhead with a chance for wintry weather, meaning the Chargers chances are as good as hitting the over.



Houston Texans 9-4 (-6.5) @ New York Jets 4-9 (42.5): Texans 24-20
Saturday, 4:30 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Rain; mid-40s)

Reasons: The Jets season is over, but the Texans’ season isn’t and Houston missed an opportunity to win the division last week by beating the Indianapolis Colts and owning the 2-0 head-to-head tie-breaker (in the event both teams ended the season 10-6). What a perfect way to get back on track, facing a Jets team ranked in the lower third of the league in total offense and defense, points scored and allowed, sacks, turnover ratio and offensive penalty yards. The Texans might struggle in the rain on the road, so maybe the 6.5 point is a bad idea, but a win is inevitable.



Cleveland Browns 5-7-1 (+4) @ Denver Broncos 6-7 (44.5): Broncos 24-23
Saturday, 8:20 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 30s)

Reasons: Believe it or not this game has playoff implications. Yes, the Cleveland Browns are still relevant in Week 15; both teams are mathematically still in the so-called “playoff hunt”, and even more astonishing is the Browns are the team with a chance at winning the division, although the odds of that are, well, much better than you think. Cleveland could win the AFC North through one of several complicated situations considering they tied and lost to the Steelers and beat the Ravens with a Week 17 match up looming, but the Browns should just focus on the Broncos. The fact remains Mile High Stadium is still one of the toughest places to play, and not just because of the altitude; it’s because the crowd comes with the same energy as the Arrowhead crowds and have been doing it a lot longer than the CenturyLink crowds. These teams match up well, right up to Baker Mayfield’s rookie status matching Case Keenum’s underwhelming status, so what we have here is a true “Who wants it more” game between two teams that will likely both be home by Week 18.



Arizona Cardinals 3-10 (+10) @ Atlanta Falcons 4-9 (44): Falcons 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: This game has zero playoff implications. Perhaps these teams become relevant in Weeks 16 a/o 17 as spoilers.



The Green Bay Packers season is on the line Sunday, and for Green Bay to have any chance against the Chicago Bears Aaron Rodgers will have to play as well as he did in their Week 1 match up.




Green Bay Packers 5-7-1 (+5) @ Chicago Bears 9-4 (46.5): Bears 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)

Reasons: Since Aaron Rodgers became the Packers starting quarterback in 2008 Green Bay has only lost to the Bears four times. In 23 games the Bears have won four, including a playoff game in 2011, a ridiculous recent domination over a division rival in which Sunday will be the 198th meeting between the two teams (Green Bay leads the all-time series 94-97-6, including the playoffs). Two of those four wins have come at Green Bay, but the last time the Bears won in Green Bay was in 2015 and the Bears haven’t beaten them since, anywhere. We all remember the most recent match up, that stellar Week 1 performance from Rodgers, in which he led the Packers from down 23-0 in the 4th quarter to win 24-23. Those days are likely gone. Chicago has improved everywhere since that Week 1 matchup and the Packers are reeling, having fired head coach Mike McCarthy as well as a few assistants. Rodgers is sure to conjure up some old demons, as he has the flair for the dramatic, but these Bears are on a mission and flying high after a defensive domination of the Los Angeles Rams. Many expect a Chicago letdown, but that’s ridiculous considering these two team’s histories. Green Bay’s only chance, once again, remains Aaron Rodgers. 



Detroit Lions 5-8 (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills 4-9 (38): Bills 23-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Fog; high 30s)

Reasons: This game has zero playoff implications. Perhaps these teams become relevant in Weeks 16 a/o 17 as spoilers.



Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-8 (+8.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 7-6 (47.5): Ravens 28-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Rain; low 40s) 

Reasons: The Joe Flacco era is over in Baltimore, at least in terms of him being the starting quarterback, as the Ravens have given the nod to rookie Lamar Jackson as they make a desperate push for the playoffs, which somehow includes a possible division title considering how terrible the AFC North has become. Perspective: The Cleveland Browns could win the division. Despite entering the game with an underwhelming combined 13-14 record, this game actually features the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense (18.5 ppg) in the Ravens against the Buc’s 2nd-ranked total offense and 10th-ranked scoring offense (25.5 ppg). It’s not as if the Ravens are offensively-inept, averaging nearly 25 ppg (13th), but the Bucs certainly are defensively, ranking 27th in total defense and 30th in scoring defense (29.5 ppg). In other words, a hungry Ravens team playing at home with the best defense in the league should be trouble for the Bucs, who are 1-5 on the road.



Oakland Raiders 3-10 (+3) v. Cincinnati Bengals 5-8 (46.5): Raiders 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 50s)

Reasons: This game has zero playoff implications. Perhaps these teams become relevant in Weeks 16 a/o 17 as spoilers.



 One of the New York Giants two superstars will be sidelined Sunday, making life slightly more difficult for the other star.



Tennessee Titans 7-6 (+3) @ New York Giants 5-8 (43.5): Giants 23-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Rain; high 30s)

Reasons: Imagine how embarrassed the Titans have to be being three-point underdogs to the 5-8 Giants without Odell Beckham Jr.? I’m sure by the time the news hits the airwaves regarding OBJ’s absence Las Vegas will have adjusted the point spread based on incoming money and the line will be closer to one point, but the fact the Giants are favored at all, even at MetLife Stadium, is interesting. Perhaps it’s because Tennessee recently joined the exclusive club of two NFL teams with winning records with negative point differentials (Minnesota has a negative point differential with a .500 record). Losing OBJ for the game makes New York even more one-dimensional, as in Saquonensional, but even one dude might be enough to beat a Titans offense that can’t even score 20 ppg (19.3 ppg, 27th). 



Miami Dolphins 7-6 (+9.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 6-6-1 (44): Vikings 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors) 

Reasons: Remember those other two teams I talked about being in the club with the Tennessee Titans as winning teams with negative point differentials? Well, they’re both featured in this game. The Dolphins shouldn’t have a winning record considering their fluke win over the New England Patriots last week, but they do, despite owning a -4.2 ppg differential, by far the worst in the NFL. The Vikings are technically a .500 team, but they still own a -0.2 ppg differential, despite being loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Both of these teams are still in the “playoff hunt”, but neither team will be there in January.



Washington Football 6-7 (+8.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 4-9 (36): Jaguars 20-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)

Reasons: This game has playoff implications because technically Washington has a chance at winning the NFC East. Everyone in the world knows that’s not going to happen. The Jaguars aren’t even worth talking about. 




Dallas Cowboys 8-5 (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts 7-6 (47): Colts 26-24
Sunday, 1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The Cowboys are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winners of five straight games and coming back from the dead after sitting at 3-5 at the mid-season point, with the addition of Amari Cooper being the obvious catalyst for the Cowboys recent success. The Colts were the hot team not too long ago, having won five straight games of their own before division rival Jacksonville put the kibosh on that. The Colts have been streaky all year, but in chunks, and quickly got back to winning last week by ending the Houston Texans nine-game winning streak, so clearly the Colts showed not only the mental fortitude of a playoff team, but showed they can play with the big dogs, of which Dallas has suddenly become. It’s the formerly elusive late-season “top-four defense (DAL: 2nd scoring; 4th total) versus top-eight offense (IND: 8th-ranked total & scoring)” match-up, which has become more common in recent years, but in the end this game will come down to which team can actually hold serve on 3rd down and whether the Cowboys stellar linebacking crew can contain Eric Ebron, who has 12 TDs in 13 games with the Colts after scoring just 11 TDs in his previous 56 NFL games. 


Russell Wilson is playing as well as he ever has and the Seattle Seahawks are primed for another playoff run.
 


Seattle Seahawks 8-5 (-5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 3-10 (44.5): Seahawks 27-20
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Heavy rain; low 60s)

Reasons: A month ago the Seahawks had lost a close game to the Los Angeles Rams in which they had a chance to win, and suddenly Seattle found themselves 4-5 and scrambling to find an identity that involved both their quality defense and an offense led by Russell Wilson, a dark horse MVP candidate. Fast forward to mid-December and the Seahawks have won four straight and now own the 6th-ranked scoring defense (20.5 ppg) and 9th-ranked scoring offense (26.2 ppg); Wilson remains a dark horse MVP candidate (29 TDs; 6 INTs). The 49ers, well, they should serve as a perfect springboard towards a Seahawks Wild Card berth. 



New England Patriots 9-4 (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 7-5-1 (49.5): Patriots 28-27
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Rain; low 40s)

Reasons: The most overstated point regarding this game is the Patriots dominance over the Steelers in recent years. I’m a regression-to-the-mean type guy, and what we have here are two desperate teams. The Steelers have lost three straight games and suddenly find themselves fighting for their playoff lives and maybe even their jobs. The Patriots lost a lateral heart-breaker to the Miami Dolphins last week and find themselves 2-2 in a time of year when they dominate, while Tom Brady’s play has been just underwhelming enough to spark debates about his longevity again. Add this to the fact the Patriots can’t afford to lose home field advantage at this point in Brady’s career and the Patriots suddenly become desperate themselves. The truth is these teams are pretty evenly-matched, with nearly identical scoring averages (NE: 28.0-22.5; PIT: 28.2-23.5), but the game comes down to whether Brady can escape Pittsburgh’s pressure (PIT 1st sacks) and/or Ben Roethlisberger can avoid turning the ball over (NE: 5th INTs & 10th TO ratio; PIT: 27th TO ratio).




Philadelphia Eagles 6-7 (+9.5) @ Los Angeles Rams 11-2 (54): Rams 30-20
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Cloudy; mid-50s)

Reasons: The Rams are looking to bounce back after their worst game of the season losing 15-6 to the Bears in Chicago, while the Eagles are just looking to get this season over with. It was announced this week Carson Wentz would miss the remainder of the season with what could be a broken back. Ask Tony Romo how that went. Philadelphia is in danger of becoming the first team since the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers to have a losing record following a Super Bowl-winning season; I predicted the Eagles would go 6-10, so I’ve been patting myself on the back for weeks, but they need to win at least two more games or risk joining the Bucs in that infamous post-2000 club. Let’s be honest, this nose dive started when head coach Doug Pederson went on an off-season book tour for a book titled “Fearless”. You’re basically asking for it at that point. 



New Orleans Saints 11-2 (-7) @ Carolina Panthers 6-7 (54): Saints 28-23
Monday, 8:15 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Clear; high 30s)

Reasons: MVP-candidate Drew Brees (35 total TDs; 4 INTs) and the Saints haven’t quite looked the same the past two weeks, but Carolina hasn’t looked the same for over a month, specifically Cam Newton, who has thrown eight of his 12 INTs in the past four weeks over the Panthers five-game losing streak. Cam Newton is clearly not 100%. The Panthers play well at home (5-1), but the Saints play well on the road (6-1), and the Panthers defense is nothing like in years past, while the Saints could say the same about themselves, but in a positive context (3rd sacks; 10th scoring defense: 21.8 ppg). Carolina will also be without kicker Graham Gano, which has huge implications. The Saints have already won the NFC South, but the only let down I see happening here is for people that take the Saints and the points, as pride is about the only thing Carolina is playing for at this point.
 


Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 15 #NFL Game Reviews coming Tuesday!



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