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Thursday, November 22, 2018

Week 12: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) SUNDAY EDITION


2018 NFL SEASON

Week 12: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)


Week 11 results: 8-5 (wins); 8-4-1 (v. spread); 7-5-1 (O/U)
Season totals: 105-54-2 .660 (wins); 76-79-6 .490 (v. sp); 88-71-2 .553 (O/U)

Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS).



 The biggest star of the day doesn't even touch the field Thursday, unless the networks still do that weird turkey leg thing.


Chicago Bears 7-3 (-3) @ Detroit Lions 4-6 (44.5): Bears 24-20

Thursday, 12:30 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The Bears are three-point favorites on the road despite starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky’s doubtful status due to a shoulder injury and it’s because the Lions are struggling with their own attrition, too. Well, it’s also because Chicago is a far better football team, and with Kenny Golladay out there alone, the Chicago Ballhawks (1st INTs) could have a field day. The Lions rank 10th in sacks and are a disciplined team under head new coach Matt Patricia (9th PEN), but it ends there. The Bears are one of the best teams in the NFL ranking 10th or higher in total defense, points scored, points against, turnover ratio, 3rd-down efficiency, interceptions, and sacks. It’ll be a different story out there without Trubisky if he can’t go Thursday, but the Bears have proved their defense is more than capable of handling things, especially against a depleted offense (Kerryon Johnson: Out; Marvin Jones: Out).


Washington Football Team 6-4 (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys 5-5 (40.5): Cowboys 23-20

Thursday, 4:30 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)


Reasons: Washington are seven-point underdogs for obvious reasons besides being on the road – Alex Smith is gone for the season and by gruesome and emotional means. Isn’t it interesting that Washington will look to Colt McCoy, a Texas darling, to replace Smith and serve the turkey on Thanksgiving. Suddenly seven points seems like a lot, because McCoy is a career 60% passer with 27 TDs and 23 INTs (although he is 7-18 lifetime). The Cowboys offense seems to be clicking, but Dallas is only averaging 21.0 ppg in their last three games following their bye. Ezekiel Elliot (953 rushing yards; 5 TDs) is red hot, which could be all that matters for Dallas heading into Thanksgiving; so is Adrian Peterson (723 rushing yards; 6 TDs), and he could be doing it all by himself Thursday. I like the Cowboys, but not by seven points.


Atlanta Falcons 4-6 (+13) @ New Orleans Saints 9-1 (60.5): Saints 35-24

Thursday, 8:20 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: At first glance this game seems like a no-brainer, and Las Vegas certainly thinks so, but these teams are much closer on paper than most would think. Besides an absurd discrepancy in points scored (NO, 1st: 37.6 ppg; ATL, 9th: 26.3 ppg) and turnover ratio (NO: 6th; ATL: 19th) and a small difference in yards allowed (~45-yard difference) these NFC South rivals share much more in common than their records would suggest. Speaking of records, we found another major difference in theses teams: The Saints are 4-1 at home while the Falcons are only 1-3 on the road. Actually, there’s another huge difference: point differential. New Orleans outscores their opponents by an average of nearly two touchdowns; Atlanta is outscored on average by 1.3 ppg. Perhaps when you score almost 40 ppg those other metrics become less important. The bottom line is the Saints are a better team from the top down and they’re playing at home, but anything can happen on short weeks on the national stage, so 13 points seems high even for the best team in the NFL.



 Tom Brady is having a below-average season, but the New England offense continues to click and the Patriots remain in control.



New England Patriots 7-3 (-9.5) @ New York Jets 3-7 (46): Patriots 28-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)

Reasons: The Jets haven’t won a game in a month, averaging a measly 10.5 ppg through those four games while surrendering nearly 29 ppg. New York will also be without rookie Sam Darnold for the second straight week, which is probably for the best considering the Patriots devour rookie quarterbacks, they are historically good following the bye week under Bill Belichick (although only 3-2 since 2013) and the Patriots don’t lose two games in a row often. The Patriots are as banged up as any team in the league at key spots, and Tom Brady looked as bad as he’s ever looked two weeks ago, but the Jets should be the perfect team to get right again.


San Francisco 49ers 2-8 (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-7 (54.5): Bucs 30-27

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Partly sunny; high 70s)

Reasons: The 49ers are banged up on offense and the Bucs are banged up on defense and Tampa Bay is going back to Jameis Winston at home to salvage the season in some form, even if it’s just getting Winston’s head right. The Bucs have lost four straight games while the 49ers only win since Week 2 came against the league laughingstock Oakland Raiders. Winston could get back on track Sunday and fool everyone into thinking the Bucs might be OK.


New York Giants 3-7 (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 4-6 (46): Giants 24-23

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)

Reasons: The Eagles are pretty thin at the secondary, which could be a problem Sunday considering the Giants only real weapons are their receivers (Odell Beckham Jr.; Sterling Shepard) and one of the best receiving running backs in the NFL in Saquon Barkley. The Giants also seem to have hit that magical moment in their terrible seasons where the ghost of Eli Face’s Past comes and warns of what could be, then everyone starts clicking, guys get healthy and suddenly New York is 8-8 and fighting for the NFC East. The Eagles can’t seem to get out of their own way and when attrition starts catching up to poor play things get as disastrous as they seem to have become in Philadelphia. It’s also worth noting that the Eagles 12th-ranked scoring defense only gives up 3.2 fewer ppg than the Giants 25th-ranked scoring defense. Philadelphia has a favorable schedule coming up, so their destiny is in their own hands to some degree, but it starts with this not-as-winnable-as-it-seemed-a-few-weeks-ago game at home against the Giants.


Oakland Raiders 2-8 (+10.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 5-5 (43): Ravens 24-14

Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny; high 50s)

Reasons: The Ravens had been spiraling out of control for nearly a month before their close win at home against the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday, but in their defense, those losses came against three of the best teams in the league in the New Orleans Saints, at the Carolina Panthers and against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Raiders, on the other hand, barely left Arizona with a win after kicking the go-ahead and game-winning field goal as time expired and will be coming east for the infamous 10 AM start that West Coast teams love so much (NFL West Coast teams are 79-93 since 2003 when playing transcontinental games). After their only other win this season, an OT game against the Cleveland Browns Week 4, it’s safe to say the Raiders could easily be winless, which is what they seem like paper. Baltimore is stellar on paper, which will translate to a win Sunday, but I’m not sure about the cover.



This time you won't be able to figure out who this guy is cheering for.


Jacksonville Jaguars 3-7 (-3) @ Buffalo Bills 3-7 (37): Jaguars 21-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Drizzle; mid-40s)

Reasons: Both teams enter Sunday with two very good defenses when it comes to allowing yards, but only the Jaguars prevent teams from scoring much (9th scoring defense). Besides that, we’re looking at two of the worst teams in the NFL, but only the Bills expected to be in that position. The bottom line is the Bills only score 13.7 ppg and they’re going back to rookie Josh Allen, so the Jaguars should be able get right. Well, pick up their fourth win is more like it.


Seattle Seahawks 5-5 (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers 6-4 (47.5): Panthers 27-24

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)

Reasons: Both teams come into Sunday with a lot on the line, specifically playoff berths, but the only real advantage the Panthers have other than being home is the Seahawks traveling the infamous transcontinental west coast to east coast flight for a 10 AM game. Both teams possess great defenses, mediocre offenses and they don’t turn the ball over, but the Panthers are far more disciplined on offense (6th), more efficient on 3rd down (12th) and undefeated at home (5-0). The Panthers are slight favorites for good reason, but the Seahawks are a good football team with many of the same capabilities the Panthers have. This should be a great game.

Cleveland Browns 3-6-1 (+3) @ Cincinnati Bengals 5-5 (49.5): Bengals 24-23

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Mostly Sunny; high 50s)

Reasons: Ohio pro football has been taking it on the chin the past month or more, with both teams going 1-4 in their past five games. The big difference is the Bengals started 4-1 and have watched the Pittsburgh Steelers take the division from them and the Baltimore Ravens. The Browns started 2-2-1, but have done Cleveland Browns things since, including firing their head coach and promoting Mr. Bounty Gate in his stead. The Bengals have long dominated the Browns, but the Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL despite head coach Marvin Lewis, the Browns are 2nd in the turnover ratio and 3rd in sacks and I don’t trust Cincinnati anymore than I want to move there. Whether that translates into a road win for the embattled Browns is another story, because the Bengals might be the most unpredictable team in the league in addition to being the most frustrating for their fans.

Arizona Cardinals 2-8 (+12) @ Los Angeles Chargers 7-3 (44.5): Chargers 27-17

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson City, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)

Reasons: The Cardinals are ranked 31st in both total offense and points scored and 17th in both total defense and points scored, the only team in the league to be ranked the same in both categories. So what, you ask? Well, it’s about the only remarkable thing about the Cardinals. The Chargers are a very remarkable team, ranked in the top-10 in total offense, points scored, points against, and sacks, the latter without Joey Bosa most of the season. Los Angeles endured a heart-breaking loss against the Denver Broncos last week and missed an opportunity to keep pace with the Kansas City Chiefs so I can’t imagine the Chargers let this game slip away, too, even if they’re without Melvin Gordon, whose absence won’t affect anything but the over, if that. 



 Andrew Luck is playing at an MVP level despite a lack of weapons and has led the Indianapolis Colts to four straight wins.


            
Miami Dolphins 5-5 (+8.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 5-5 (51): Colts 31-23

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)


Reasons: The Colts were once 1-5 and the biggest questions surrounding Indianapolis were whether Andrew Luck’s career may be on the decline while the Colts were wasting the star quarterback’s best years. Since then the Colts have won four straight games by an average score of 37-17 while the Colts defense is now 4th in the league in sacks. The Dolphins are going in the opposite direction, going 1-3 in their last four games following an OT win against the Chicago Bears that brought their record to 4-2 and tied them with the New England Patriots for the division lead. Miami is good at nothing except intercepting the ball, and the return of Ryan Tannehill comes as most of the Dolphins skill players are hurt. Suddenly the only question is, how far can this Colts team go?


Pittsburgh Steelers 7-2-1 (-3) @ Denver Broncos 4-6 (46.5): Steelers 28-20

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 50s)

Reasons: The Steelers have completely turned their tumultuous season around, winners of six straight games after starting the season 1-2-1 while the defense has climbed back into the defensive league leaders as the 6th-ranked total defense while giving up the 10th-fewest points to compliment their top-5 offense. In fact, during their six-game win streak the Steelers have only given up 18.2 ppg. The Broncos last three losses have been decided by one possession, so you could make as many arguments as you wanted from that, but the fact remains the Broncos aren’t even that good at home this season (2-3) and don’t have any decided advantage over a balanced Steelers team. Denver is always a test, hence the three-point point spread, but Pittsburgh is simply too much.


Green Bay Packers 4-5-1 (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 5-4-1 (47.5): Vikings 27-24

Sunday, 8:20 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors) 

Reasons: The last time these two teams played it ended in an uninspiring tie, much to the dismay of Aaron Rodgers, who hadn’t played since his last game against the Vikings the season before when Anthony Barr knocked him out for the season with a shoulder injury. Rodger’s has been working through a knee injury this season and it shows, which could come into play against a Vikings team that ranks 6th in the NFL in sacks. The Packers sack the quarterback even more (3rd) so two of the highest paid quarterbacks in the NFL who mean as much to their respective teams as anyone could be running for their lives Sunday night. If the Packers lose their season could be over so I would expect Rodgers to put his family drama aside and ball out like he’s about to make a solo push to the playoffs or like he’s going to pack Mike McCarthy’s bags for him because McCarthy can’t call complex enough plays. This the time of year when Rodgers shines brightest, but these Vikings are starting to gel again, despite two losses in their previous five games (NO; CHI).


Tennessee Titans 5-5 (+6) @ Houston Texans 7-3 (41.5): Texans 21-20

Monday, 8:15 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)


Reasons: Monday Night Football features two of the best defenses in the league, two of the most disciplined offenses in the league and two former Patriots coaches. The latter might be the reason this game also features one of the worst offenses in the league (TEN) and a mediocre offense (HOU). Seriously though, imagine being the Titans and giving up only 18.9 ppg (2nd) and watching your offense score only 17.8 ppg (28th)? The Texans started the season 0-3, including a loss at Tennessee, but have rattled off seven straight wins and are now in the driver’s seat in the AFC South. The Titans have lost, won three, lost three, won two and have lost one, which means if you’re into math patterns Tennessee is due to lose a second in a row. I know, that means absolutely nothing, probably, but the Titans are inconsistent and that’s the point. This one of the worst follow up acts imaginable after last week’s Kansas City Chiefs v. Los Angeles Rams Monday Night Football game.


BYEs: Kansas City; Los Angeles (N)


Stay tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 12 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!










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