2018
NFL SEASON
Tuesday’s
Gone: Week 12 #NFL Game Reviews
Week
12 results: 10-5 (wins); 6-9 (v. spread); 7-7-1 (O/U)
Season
totals: 115-59-2 .661 (wins); 82-88-6 .482 (v. sp); 95-78-3 .549 (O/U)
Note/Key
(when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS).
The biggest star of the day doesn't even touch the field Thursday, unless the networks still do that weird turkey leg thing.
Chicago Bears 7-3 (-3) @ Detroit Lions 4-6 (44.5):
Bears 24-20 Bears 23-16
Thursday,
12:30 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: The Bears are three-point favorites on the road despite
starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky’s doubtful status due to a shoulder injury
and it’s because the Lions are struggling with their own attrition, too. Well,
it’s also because Chicago is a far better football team, and with Kenny
Golladay out there alone, the Chicago Ballhawks (1st INTs) could have a field day. The Lions rank 10th
in sacks and are a disciplined team under head new coach Matt Patricia (9th PEN), but it ends there.
The Bears are one of the best teams in the NFL ranking 10th or
higher in total defense, points scored, points against, turnover ratio, 3rd-down
efficiency, interceptions, and sacks. It’ll be a different story out there
without Trubisky if he can’t go Thursday, but the Bears have proved their
defense is more than capable of handling things, especially against a depleted
offense (Kerryon Johnson: Out; Marvin
Jones: Out).
These guys had turkey on the mind because both
teams combined for only 597 total yards and three turnovers, including a Trey
Burton fumble that the Lions turned into seven points and two Matthew Stafford
INTs that coincidentally came on Detroit’s last two possessions, the first of
which the Bears returned to the endzone for the go-ahead touchdown.
Washington
Football Team 6-4 (+7) @ Dallas
Cowboys 5-5 (40.5): Cowboys 23-20 Cowboys 31-23
Thursday, 4:30 PM,
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Washington are seven-point underdogs for obvious reasons
besides being on the road – Alex Smith is gone for the season and by gruesome
and emotional means. Isn’t it interesting that Washington will look to Colt
McCoy, a Texas darling, to replace Smith and serve the turkey on Thanksgiving.
Suddenly seven points seems like a lot, because McCoy is a career 60% passer
with 27 TDs and 23 INTs (although he is 7-18 lifetime). The Cowboys
offense seems to be clicking, but Dallas is only averaging 21.0 ppg in their
last three games following their bye. Ezekiel Elliot (953 rushing yards; 5
TDs) is red hot, which could be all that matters for Dallas heading into
Thanksgiving; so is Adrian Peterson (723 rushing yards; 6 TDs), and he
could be doing it all by himself Thursday. I like the Cowboys, but not by seven
points.
Washington scored 10 points in the 4th quarter to make a blowout
look like a close game, but three INTs by Colt McCoy helped Dallas control the
clock and let Ezekiel Elliot (26 carries for 121 rushing yards; 1 TD) get going.
That helped open up Amari Cooper (8 receptions for 180 yards; 2 TDs) and now
the Cowboys have a formidable offense to match the defense. Too bad for them they play New Orleans on the short week.
Atlanta Falcons 4-6 (+13) @ New Orleans
Saints 9-1 (60.5): Saints 35-24
Thursday,
8:20 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: At first glance this game seems like a no-brainer, and Las Vegas
certainly thinks so, but these teams are much closer on paper than most would
think. Besides an absurd discrepancy in points scored (NO, 1st: 37.6 ppg; ATL, 9th: 26.3 ppg) and
turnover ratio (NO: 6th; ATL:
19th) and a small difference in yards allowed (~45-yard difference) these NFC South
rivals share much more in common than their records would suggest. Speaking of
records, we found another major difference in these teams: The Saints are 4-1
at home while the Falcons are only 1-3 on the road. Actually, there’s another
huge difference: point differential. New Orleans outscores their opponents by
an average of nearly two touchdowns; Atlanta is outscored on average by 1.3
ppg. Perhaps when you score almost 40 ppg those other metrics become less
important. The bottom line is the Saints are a better team from the top down
and they’re playing at home, but anything can happen on short weeks on the
national stage, so 13 points seems high even for the best team in the NFL.
When Matt Ryan leads the team in rushing you know it was a bad day
for the Atlanta Falcons. Ryan also threw an INT and lost a fumble, two of the
Falcons four total TOs (in addition to two more fumbles by Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley). The
stars were not out in New Orleans for the Falcons, but Drew Brees was shining
as always, throwing four TD passes to four different receivers no one outside of
football circles has ever heard of. The Saints defense marched in and hit Ryan
15 times, sacking him six times in the process. Look out, NFL, Drew Brees is on a mission.
Tom Brady is having a below-average season, but the New England offense continues to click and the Patriots remain in control.
New England Patriots 7-3
(-9.5) @ New York Jets 3-7 (46): Patriots 28-17 Patriots 27-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium,
East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Reasons: The Jets haven’t won a game in a month, averaging a measly
10.5 ppg through those four games while surrendering nearly 29 ppg. New York
will also be without rookie Sam Darnold for the second straight week, which is
probably for the best considering the Patriots devour rookie quarterbacks, they
are historically good following the bye week under Bill Belichick (although
only 3-2 since 2013) and the Patriots don’t lose two games in a row often.
The Patriots are as banged up as any team in the league at key spots, and Tom
Brady looked as bad as he’s ever looked two weeks ago, but the Jets should be
the perfect team to get right again.
The Patriots clicked on all cylinders Sunday, getting two TDs from
Tom Brady, 138 rushing yards from Sony Michel and receiving TDs Julian Edelman
and Rob Gronkowski. Even the New England defense played well (2 sacks; 1 INT),
but we’re talking about the Jets with their back up quarterback.
San
Francisco 49ers 2-8 (+3.5) @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-7 (54.5): Bucs 30-27 Bucs 27-9
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Partly sunny; high 70s)
Reasons: The 49ers are banged up on offense and the Bucs are banged
up on defense and Tampa Bay is going back to Jameis Winston at home to salvage
the season in some form, even if it’s just getting Winston’s head right. The
Bucs have lost four straight games while the 49ers only win since Week 2 came
against the league laughingstock Oakland Raiders. Winston could get back on
track Sunday and fool everyone into thinking the Bucs might be OK.
Nick Mullens has come back down to Earth, as the Tampa Bay defense
hit Mullens 10 times, sacking him four times in the process in addition to the forcing two INTs.
The Bucs dominated this game on offense, too, at least relative to the 49ers, with
Jameis Winston throwing two TDs while it was his turn. Stay tuned for next
week’s episode of As The Bucs Quarterback Carousel turns.
New York Giants 3-7 (+6.5)
@ Philadelphia Eagles 4-6 (46): Giants 24-23 Eagles 25-22
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial
Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Reasons: The Eagles are pretty thin at the secondary, which could be
a problem Sunday considering the Giants only real weapons are their receivers (Odell
Beckham Jr.; Sterling Shepard) and one of the best receiving running
backs in the NFL in Saquon Barkley. The Giants also seem to have hit that
magical moment in their terrible seasons where the ghost of Eli Face’s Past
comes and warns of what could be, then everyone starts clicking, guys get
healthy and suddenly New York is 8-8 and fighting for the NFC East. The Eagles
can’t seem to get out of their own way and when attrition starts catching up to
poor play things get as disastrous as they seem to have become in Philadelphia.
It’s also worth noting that the Eagles 12th-ranked scoring defense
only gives up 3.2 fewer ppg than the Giants 25th-ranked scoring
defense. Philadelphia has a favorable schedule coming up, so their destiny is
in their own hands to some degree, but it starts with this
not-as-winnable-as-it-seemed-a-few-weeks-ago game at home against the Giants.
The Giants were up 19-3 with four minutes to go in the first half,
but the Eagles flipped the script and outscored New York 22-3 in the final 36
minutes of the game, perhaps sparked by another Eli Manning INT. The Eagles
escaped with the win despite being severely thin in the secondary, but the
important thing is that the Giants covered.
Oakland
Raiders 2-8 (+10.5) @ Baltimore
Ravens 5-5 (43):
Ravens 24-14 Ravens
34-17
Sunday,
1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny; high 50s)
Reasons: The Ravens had been spiraling out of control for nearly a month
before their close win at home against the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday, but
in their defense, those losses came against three of the best teams in the
league in the New Orleans Saints, at the Carolina Panthers and against the
Pittsburgh Steelers. The Raiders, on the other hand, barely left Arizona with a
win after kicking the go-ahead and game-winning field goal as time expired and
will be coming east for the infamous 10 AM start that West Coast teams love so
much (NFL West Coast teams are 79-93 since
2003 when playing transcontinental games). After their only other win this
season, an OT game against the Cleveland Browns Week 4, it’s safe to say the
Raiders could easily be winless, which is what they seem like paper. Baltimore
is stellar on paper, which will translate to a win Sunday, but I’m not sure
about the cover.
There’s nothing worse than losing the cover to a Terrell Suggs fumble
return for the cover-busting TD with six minutes remaining in the 4th
quarter.
This
time you won't be able to figure out who this guy is cheering for.
Jacksonville
Jaguars 3-7 (-3) @ Buffalo Bills 3-7 (37): Jaguars 21-17 Bills 24-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Drizzle; mid-40s)
Reasons: Both teams enter Sunday with two very good defenses when it
comes to allowing yards, but only the Jaguars prevent teams from scoring much (9th scoring defense). Besides
that, we’re looking at two of the worst teams in the NFL, but only the Bills
expected to be in that position. The bottom line is the Bills only score 13.7
ppg and they’re going back to rookie Josh Allen, so the Jaguars should be able
get right. Well, pick up their fourth win is more like it.
The Jaguars never led, but the came close after going down 14-0 in
the 1st quarter. The highlight of the game was the brawl at the end
in which Leonard Fournette (2 TDs) and Shaq Lawson were ejected, even taking
their beef into the tunnel as they were led out of the stadium by security. Rookie Josh
Allen threw a TD pass and ran for another TD in his return back from injury to prove to Jalen Ramsey that he is, in fact, not trash. He is.
Seattle Seahawks 5-5 (+3.5)
@ Carolina Panthers 6-4 (47.5): Panthers 27-24
Seahawks 30-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America
Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Reasons: Both teams come into Sunday with a lot on the line,
specifically playoff berths, but the only real advantage the Panthers have
other than being home is the Seahawks traveling the infamous transcontinental
west coast to east coast flight for a 10 AM game. Both teams possess great
defenses, mediocre offenses and they don’t turn the ball over, but the Panthers
are far more disciplined on offense (6th),
more efficient on 3rd down (12th)
and undefeated at home (5-0). The
Panthers are slight favorites for good reason, but the Seahawks are a good
football team with many of the same capabilities the Panthers have. This should
be a great game.
Christian McCaffery gained 237 total yards and scored two TDs on 28
touches, but it wasn’t enough as the Seahawks scored 10 unanswered points in
the final three and a half minutes of the game, including the game-winning field goal off
the foot of Sebastian Janikowski as time expired.
Cleveland Browns 3-6-1 (+3) @ Cincinnati Bengals 5-5 (49.5): Bengals 24-23
Browns 35-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium,
Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Mostly Sunny; high 50s)
Reasons: Ohio pro football has been taking it on the chin the past
month or more, with both teams going 1-4 in their past five games. The big
difference is the Bengals started 4-1 and have watched the Pittsburgh Steelers
take the division from them and the Baltimore Ravens. The Browns started 2-2-1,
but have done Cleveland Browns things since, including firing their head coach
and promoting Mr. Bounty Gate in his stead. The Bengals have long dominated the
Browns, but the Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL despite head coach
Marvin Lewis, the Browns are 2nd in the turnover ratio and 3rd
in sacks and I don’t trust Cincinnati any more than I want to move there.
Whether that translates into a road win for the embattled Browns is another
story, because the Bengals might be the most unpredictable team in the league
in addition to being the most frustrating for their fans.
Baker Mayfield looked like a world beater Sunday, throwing four TD
passes on the way to leading the Browns to a blow out win over the Bengals in
Cincinnati, snapping about 100 team losing streaks in the process. Andy Dalton
was injured and the Bengals were losing 28-7 by halftime, so it’s safe to say
the Bengals season could be over.
Arizona
Cardinals 2-8 (+12) @
Los Angeles Chargers 7-3 (44.5):
Chargers 27-17 Chargers 45-10
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson City, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons: The Cardinals are ranked 31st in both total
offense and points scored and 17th in both total defense and points
scored, the only team in the league to be ranked the same in both categories.
So what, you ask? Well, it’s about the only remarkable thing about the
Cardinals. The Chargers are a very remarkable team, ranked in the top-10 in
total offense, points scored, points against, and sacks, the latter without
Joey Bosa most of the season. Los Angeles endured a heart-breaking loss against
the Denver Broncos last week and missed an opportunity to keep pace with the
Kansas City Chiefs so I can’t imagine the Chargers let this game slip away,
too, even if they’re without Melvin Gordon, whose absence won’t affect anything
but the over, if that.
The Cardinals led this game 10-0 at one point, which means for about
25 minutes those of us who took the points actually thought we had a chance.
Andrew
Luck is playing at an MVP level despite a lack of weapons and has led the
Indianapolis Colts to four straight wins.
Miami
Dolphins 5-5 (+8.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 5-5 (51): Colts 31-23 Colts 27-24
Sunday,
4:25 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Colts were once 1-5 and the biggest questions
surrounding Indianapolis were whether Andrew Luck’s career may be on the
decline while the Colts were wasting the star quarterback’s best years. Since
then the Colts have won four straight games by an average score of 37-17 while
the Colts defense is now 4th in the league in sacks. The Dolphins
are going in the opposite direction, going 1-3 in their last four games
following an OT win against the Chicago Bears that brought their record to 4-2
and tied them with the New England Patriots for the division lead. Miami is
good at nothing except intercepting the ball, and the return of Ryan Tannehill
comes as most of the Dolphins skill players are hurt. Suddenly the only
question is, how far can this Colts team go?
The Dolphins led 24-14 late, but the Colts scored 13 unanswered points in
the final eight and a half minutes of the game via Andrew Luck’s third TD pass
of the game and Adam Vinatieri’s only two field goals of the game, including
the game-winner as time expired.
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-2-1
(-3) @ Denver Broncos 4-6
(46.5):
Steelers 28-20 Broncos 24-17
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 50s)
Reasons: The Steelers have completely turned their tumultuous season
around, winners of six straight games after starting the season 1-2-1 while the
defense has climbed back into the defensive league leaders as the 6th-ranked
total defense while giving up the 10th-fewest points to complement
their top-5 offense. In fact, during their six-game win streak the Steelers
have only given up 18.2 ppg. The Broncos last three losses have been decided by
one possession, so you could make as many arguments as you wanted from that,
but the fact remains the Broncos aren’t even that good at home this season (2-3)
and don’t have any decided advantage over a balanced Steelers team. Denver is
always a test, hence the three-point point spread, but Pittsburgh is simply too
much.
The Steelers led 17-10 with under six minutes left in the 3rd
quarter, but the Broncos scored 14 unanswered points on an Emmanuel Sanders (7
receptions; 86 receiving yards) TD reception and a Philip Lindsay (14 carries;
110 rushing yards) TD run. Pittsburgh committed four TOs, including two Ben Roethlisberger
INTs, but Roethlisberger was almost the hero of the game again, nearly running
in the game-tying TD as time expired; instead he was out at the 3-yard line.
Three plays later Roethlisberger threw the game-sealing INT to defensive tackle
Shelby Harris. Three days later he was still blaming everyone in western Pennsylvania besides himself.
Green Bay Packers 4-5-1 (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 5-4-1 (47.5): Vikings 27-24 Vikings 24-17
Sunday,
8:20 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
(Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The last time these two teams played it ended in an
uninspiring tie, much to the dismay of Aaron Rodgers, who hadn’t played since
his last game against the Vikings the season before when Anthony Barr knocked
him out for the season with a shoulder injury. Rodger’s has been working
through a knee injury this season and it shows, which could come into play
against a Vikings team that ranks 6th in the NFL in sacks. The
Packers sack the quarterback even more (3rd) so two of the
highest paid quarterbacks in the NFL who mean as much to their respective teams
as anyone could be running for their lives Sunday night. If the Packers lose
their season could be over so I would expect Rodgers to put his family drama
aside and ball out like he’s about to make a solo push to the playoffs or like
he’s going to pack Mike McCarthy’s bags for him because McCarthy can’t call
complex enough plays. This the time of year when Rodgers shines brightest, but
these Vikings are starting to gel again, despite two losses in their previous
five games (NO; CHI).
Things are not looking good in Green Bay, and Aaron Rodgers is
looking like a shell of his former self with a lingering knee injury, throwing
for under 200 yards and getting sacked four times in one of his worst
performances of the season. The Packers made a valiant effort with a late 4th
quarter Mason Crosby FG, but the onside kick was unsuccessful as has been the
Packers 2018 season.
Tennessee
Titans 5-5 (+6) @ Houston
Texans 7-3 (41.5): Texans 21-20 Texans 34-17
Monday, 8:15 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Monday Night Football features two of the best defenses in
the league, two of the most disciplined offenses in the league and two former
Patriots coaches. The latter might be the reason this game also features one of
the worst offenses in the league (TEN) and a mediocre offense (HOU).
Seriously though, imagine being the Titans and giving up only 18.9 ppg (2nd)
and watching your offense score only 17.8 ppg (28th)? The
Texans started the season 0-3, including a loss at Tennessee, but have rattled
off seven straight wins and are now in the driver’s seat in the AFC South. The
Titans have lost, won three, lost three, won two and have lost one, which means
if you’re into math patterns Tennessee is due to lose a second in a row. I
know, that means absolutely nothing, probably, but the Titans are inconsistent
and that’s the point. This one of the worst follow up acts imaginable after
last week’s Kansas City Chiefs v. Los Angeles Rams Monday Night Football game.
The same week Phillip Rivers throws 25 consecutive completions in a
game to tie the all-time NFL record Marcus Mariota completes 23 of 24 passes on Monday Night Football,
but the game belonged to the Texans rush attack, which gained 281 yards and two
TDs on 34 carries (8.3 ypr), including 162 yards and a TD from Lamar Miller. The
Texans defense also sacked Mariota six times and have begun to reestablish
themselves as a league power.
BYEs: Kansas City; Los Angeles (N)
Stay tuned for Week 13: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis coming Thursday & Sunday!
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.