2017
NFL SEASON
C H A M P I O N S
H I P
R O U N D
Week 20: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads &
analysis)
Wild Card Round: 2-2 wins; 3-1 v. spread
Divisional Round: 2-2 wins; 2-1-1 v. spread
Note/Key: Statistical
analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF);
points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed
(YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN).
This
symbol represents the men responsible for football not being played on a pitch.
Remember that the next time you hate on one of the greatest franchises in NFL
history.
Jacksonville Jaguars
#3 (+7.5)
@ New England Patriots #1 (48): Patriots 24-20
Sunday, 3:05 PM, Gillette
Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny; high
40s)
Reasons: On paper there
might not a better team in the NFL that matches up better with the Patriots, or
more specifically, provide the ultimate kryptonite to Tom Brady. The Jaguars
finished the season ranked 2nd with 55 sacks and easily get to the
quarterback with their four down linemen; that’s not good for a 40-year old
quarterback in his 18th game of the season with a shaky offensive
line. Jacksonville also boasts the league’s top running game in terms of
rushing yards per game (JAX also ranked
10th at 4.3 ypc) and ranks 2nd in the NFL in time of possession.
Then there’s the small matter of Tom Brady having a mysterious and potentially serious
hand/thumb injury, which no one outside of the Foxborough Pentagon knows
anything about. So basically if the Jaguars run the ball well, chew up the
clock and then get to an injured Tom Brady early and often in less
of time of possession the Patriots could not only lose, but get destroyed. That
would be monumental task, however, because the Patriots not only possess the 5th-ranked
scoring defense, but have been playing much better as the season has progressed, Bill
Belichick is famous for taking away his opponent’s best weapon, regardless of
which side of the ball said weapon plays on; that player will most likely be a hobbled
Leonard Fournette, who New England could completely nullify, leaving the running
game burden to a much smaller and slightly less skilled TJ Yeldon. The Jaguars one weakness on defense is
their run defense (20th)
and the Patriots run the ball well (10th
rushing yards; 11th ypc), which means the Patriots could be
chewing up a lot of the their own clock, keeping the Jaguars offense off the
field and keeping an opportunistic Jacksonville defensive backfield at bay.
Speaking of the Jaguars defensive backfield - certainly one the best in the NFL
- Jalen Ramsey’s comments showcase the biggest advantage New England has, and possibly
the Patriots only real advantage:
experience. While the All-Pro cornerback was speaking of looking past the
Patriots and winning the Super Bowl, Tom Brady’s rebuttal amidst a bunch of
thinly veiled praises was, “I’ve watched a lot of film on Jalen.” In
other words, Brady is saying, “Keep talking trash young buck, this is my 7th
straight AFC Championship game, which broke my own record from last season.”
Add the overall experience to the fact the Patriots and Jaguars just happened
to scrimmage each other for three weeks in the preseason, including the first
preseason game, which Tom Brady happened to not play in, and I can already hear
the conspiracy theorists screaming. Brady and Belichick will likely take advantage of the
Jaguars dominant front four with a hurry up offense that features dinking-and-dunking
like only Tom Brady can do, sending out quick slants to receivers and screens to
running backs until the Jaguars are exhausted and the game clock has expired. The Patriots
can’t beat this Jaguars team by more than seven points, especially with Brady’s
injured throwing hand, but the Patriots will get to back-to-back Super Bowls
for the second time in 15 years. Don’t hate it; just appreciate it.
The Minnesota Vikings have a historically great defense, but one that relies on the speed of indoor turf grass, where turf monsters don't exist.
Minnesota Vikings #2 (-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles #1 (38.5):
Eagles 21-17
Sunday, 6:40 PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Partly sunny; high 40s)
Reasons: Wow, the
disrespect. The Eagles became the first top conference seed in NFL playoff
history to be underdogs (+5 v. Atlanta)
in the Divisional Round, which should go without saying, was an Eagles home
game. Now the Eagles are underdogs again, although this time by only three
points, but it’s no less disrespectful to Philadelphia. Clearly Las Vegas has
no respect for Nick Foles, but I’m not sure why they have so much respect for
Case Keenum. Nick Foles threw for 215.3 yards per game in the three games he
started (including the playoffs) and
threw five TDs to only 2 INTs, a 2.5:1 TD:INT ratio, which is only slightly
worse than Tom Brady’s career ratio (3:1).
Granted it’s a tiny sample size, and certainly not worthy of a “Golden Boy”
comparison, but Foles is also the guy who threw 27 TDs to 2 INTs once upon
a time and won many a fantasy football fan their fantasy league championship. Regardless,
Case Keenum only averaged 21 more passing yards than Foles per game, all things
being equal, and had the benefit of Adam Thielen (91 receptions, 8th; 1,276 yards, 4th; 14.0 avg.),
Stephon Diggs (849 receiving yards, 25th;
8 TDs, t-8th; 13.3 avg.) and Kyle Rudolph (57 receptions, 10th among tight ends; 532 receiving yards; 8 TDs,
t-8th and 2nd among tight ends)
all year as opposed to Foles, who had Zack Ertz (74 receptions, 3rd among tight ends; 824 receiving yards, 3rd
among tight ends; 8 TDs, t-8th and 2nd among tight ends),
but whose wide receivers, Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery, combined for 119
receptions and 1,557 receiving yards, which was slightly more production that Thielen
alone. Jeffery and Agholor did score 9 and 8 TDs, respectively, good for 4th
and t-8th in the league. The point is Las Vegas and fans alike are disrespecting
a guy that keeps pace with Keenum statistically with less help, but probably
for good reason. The same reasons Foles should be praised for doing similar
things with less talent around him are some the same reasons Las Vegas favors Xavier
Rhodes and Harrison Smith shutting the Eagles receivers down. This game could
come down to the air, too, because the field conditions are terrible. Still, the
Vikings are a dome team, which doesn’t bode well for a team used to ideal
conditions, sans their annual trip to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay
Packers. Add the field conditions to the fact the Vikings have the top scoring
defense in the NFL and 11th-ranked total defense, while the Eagles
are the 4th-ranked scoring defense and the 7th-ranked
total defense, and even Philadelphia’s 3rd-ranked running game (total yards and yards per carry) might struggle
to gain ground against Minnesota’s 2nd-ranked run defense and we’ll be
left with a defensive game that falls well below the 38.5 over/under. Most fans
and analysts alike believe the Miracle in Minneapolis is the stuff destiny is
made of and feel the Vikings can ride that wave through to a Super Bowl victory. I don’t believe
in destiny or miracles, but I believed in Jeff Hostetler. ‘Member him? We all
know Eagles fans do.
Stay
tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 20 #NFL Game Reviews CHAMPIONSHIP
ROUND EDITION coming Wednesday.
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