2017 NFL SEASON
Week 9:
#NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 8 results: 11-2 wins (season: 64-42; .604); 6-7 v. spread
(season: 53-53; .500)
The Buffalo Bills defense, one of the best in the NFL, hasn't really surprised anyone in 2017, but Tyrod Taylor leading the Bills to a 5-2 record has.
Thursday, 8:25 PM, MetLife
Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Cloudy;
low 60s)
Reasons: The Bills are
5-2 and only a half game behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East, which
is a pretty big deal through Week 9. The Jets aren’t nearly as bad as
advertised, but they’re still 3-4 with no real intentions of accomplishing
anything. So it’s a funny thing when one looks into these two teams
statistically and sees many similarities (time
of possession, yards per play, yards gained, points), especially along the offensive side of the ball, but even with
yards allowed (BUF: 22nd; NYJ:
25th). Yards allowed is where the defensive similarities between these two
teams end and the two-game separation becomes clear. Buffalo has the 3rd-ranked
scoring defense, allowing only 16.4 ppg (PIT
allows 16.4 ppg, but has played 8 games), and the Bills lead the NFL in the
most important statistic in football: turnover ratio (+14).
Sunday, 1:00 PM,
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Partly
sunny; low 80s)
Reasons:
The Ravens don’t turn the ball over much (7th
TO ratio) and posses a top-10 defense (5th
point allowed; 10th yards allowed), but that’s the only reason
they’re 4-4, because the Baltimore offense, led by the very un-elite Joe
Flacco, cannot gain yards (31st)
and are one of the worst 3rd-down efficiency team in the NFL (28th). The Titans are right
there in 3rd-down efficiency (27th),
but are the opposite of the Ravens in points allowed, meaning they’re one of
the worst (24.7 ppg allowed; ranked 26th).
One then has to wonder why the Titans are still favored by more than the
customary home three points, because Tennessee is a supposedly much better team
at home, but they’re only 2-1; the Ravens are 2-2 on the road this year. This
will be a close one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-5 (+7) @ New Orleans Saints 5-2
(52):
Saints 28-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM,
Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons:
The Saints come into Week 9 one of the hottest, if not the hottest team in the league, but the
most surprising aspect of that unexpected surge is the Saints defense, the laughing
stock of the league for much of the past decade, is suddenly 12th in
the league in points allowed, and have only allowed 16 ppg over their five-game
winning streak, which would place them second in the league overall by mere tenths
of a point over that span. The Buccaneers are trending in the opposite
direction, as the team that many had winning the NFC South is struggling with
injuries and consistent play from quarterback Jameis Winston (10 TDs; 6 INTs).
Los Angeles Rams 5-2 (-4) @ New York Giants 1-6 (42): Rams 27-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM,
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
60% rain; low 60s)
Reasons:
Theoretically the Giants have no shot, which usually means the game will be
close or even that the underdog wins out. That probably doesn’t happen here.
Not only is the Giants season essentially over with the attrition they’ve dealt
with, but the Los Angeles Rams are for real. Even with second-year quarterback
Jared Goff still finding his way (59%; 9
TDs; 4 INTs) the offensive line and running back Todd Gurley (627 rushing yards; 4.3 ypc; 5 TDs) have
literally paved the way for an offense that ranks 9th in yards
gained, 6th in yards per play, 2nd in points scored (30.3 ppg) and 1st in 3rd-down
efficiency and point differential (10.6
ppg), which is to say nothing about the Rams stellar defense. New York is
none of those things.
The Los Angeles Rams are keeping pace with the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West, largely due to the play of running back Todd Gurley.
Denver Broncos 3-4 (+7.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 7-1 (43.5): Eagles 21-17
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 40% rain; low 60s)
Reasons:
The Broncos are reeling, losers of three straight by an average score of 24-10.
What’s worse is Denver hasn’t won on the road yet this season, while the Eagles
haven’t lost yet at home. That’s not
a good sign for Denver, which is losing because they can’t score points,
although the 24 ppg the Broncos have allowed in those three games is nearly a touchdown (5.5 ppg) more per game than they were allowing
during their first four games, a stretch that produced a 3-1 record. The Eagles,
on the other hand, are flying high with the best record in the NFL and a top-10
ranking in every crucial statistic with the exception of yards per play (12th), which can be explained
away by several Philadelphia takeaways that led to short yardage TDs and a poor
running game earlier in the season. The Eagles just traded for Jay Ajayi (465 rushing yards; 3.4 ypc), so the running
game should be fine.
Atlanta Falcons 4-3 (-2) @ Carolina Panthers 5-3 (42.5):
Panthers 21-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons:
I’m not quite sure why, but the Falcons just played the AFC East in four
straight games and came out of it 1-3, barely beating the New York Jets to
finish to with a division they’ll be glad to avoid for four years. The Panthers
haven’t been much more consistent, going 2-2 in the same span, while also dealing
with Cam Newton’s fragile and complicated mind, which tends to cause major
distractions for Carolina. The Panthers defense (2nd points allowed; 4th yards allowed) is the
only reason this team is 5-3, and the offense just lost a huge weapon in Kelvin
Benjamin, traded to the Buffalo Bills for draft picks, so the defense will
continue to be the only reason they win. Nothing has gone right for the Falcons
since they started 3-0, and that trend will likely continue Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals 3-4 (+5.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 4-3
(39):
Jaguars 24-17
Sunday,
1:00 PM, EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Reasons:
The Jaguars are suddenly one of the best teams in the NFL, at least
statistically, and are an OT loss to the New York Jets away from a 5-2 record.
I only mention this because Jacksonville is much better than their record would
suggest, ranking in the top-10 in yards per play (9th), points (8th;
26.1 ppg), yards allowed (6th),
time of possession (5th), turnover
ration (3rd), point
differential (2nd) and
lead the NFL in points allowed. The only thing the Bengals possess is a
dominant defense (5th yards
allowed; 9th points allowed), meaning we’re probably in store
for a low-scoring game.
Indianapolis Colts 2-6 (+7) @ Houston Texans 3-4 (46): Texans 24-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons:
What a bummer. Deshaun Watson was well on his way to shattering the rookie
record for TD passes (26), held by
Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson, because he already had 19 touchdown passes through
5.5 games, but the football gods did smite owner Bob McNair for his racist
comments regarding his and other NFL players and poor Watson was lost for the
season to a non-contact knee injury. The Colts also lost their franchise quarterback, Andrew Luck,
for the season, which was more denial than karma, but the Colts are a joke
anyway (-13.0 point differential). So
basically what we have Sunday between these two teams is a bitter, broken AFC
South match up.
Indianapolis Colts fans won't be seeing Andrew Luck anytime soon, as the Colts put Luck on IR this week, putting his legacy in question.
Arizona Cardinals 3-4 (-2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 0-8
(39.5):
49ers 24-20
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Levis Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather:
Sunny; low 60s)
Reasons:
The 49ers don’t seem like the worst team in the NFL, but they are this week
because the other, worse, 0-8 team, the Cleveland Browns, is on a bye. They
could be the worst team, in general, because they’re not only win-less, but the 49ers are
the only team other than the Indianapolis Colts that ranks in the bottom 25% of
every major statistical category (e.g.
even Cleveland ranks in the top-30% in yards allowed), and the 49ers rank
just above the Colts in point differential (-10.8).
For the record, the Browns rank just below the 49ers in point differential (-10.4). Guess who ranks just below the
Browns? The Arizona Cardinals (-10.3),
who are sinking faster than a cardinal who just spotted a much bigger bird
coming to eat it.
Washington Football Team 3-4 (+7) @ Seattle Seahawks 5-2
(44):
Seahawks 27-21
Sunday, 4:05 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 50% rain; low 40s)
Reasons: The Seattle
Seahawks are mudders, and Sunday is going to be a mudder kind of game. Washington
has to play in the driving rain for the second week in a row, but it wasn’t 42° last week. Washington
hovers around mediocrity while the Seahawks have turned a slow start into a 5-2
tie for the division lead with a Seattle team that would rank in the top-10 in every
meaningful category if not for a 41-38 battle with potential Rookie of the Year
Deshaun Watson last week. I don’t like Washington’s chances anyway, especially
traveling to Seattle in the cold rain.
Sunday, 4:25 PM,
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons:
The game of the week is a confusing one, because this spread was originally a
pick, which would make sense if Ezekiel Elliot was playing, but he wasn’t when
this spread was released at the start of the week. That would’ve made sense because
Elliot is a running force and the Chiefs can’t stop the run. Now Elliot is playing,
thanks to the most annoying and confusing court proceedings known to man, so
the spread makes a bit more sense with Dallas instilling enough confidence in
bettors to give the 6-2 Chiefs 2.5 points. The Cowboys are home, have their
star running back, at least again for this week, and the Kansas City defense
isn’t even good (19th points
allowed; 30th yards allowed), let alone the dominant defense we
all expected. The Chiefs offense is a juggernaut, however, and the Cowboys will
have a tough time slowing them down. Both teams are 2-2 in their last four
games, and Dallas has lost their last two home games, although those losses were
to the Los Angeles Rams and the Green Bay Packers, before they lost Aaron
Rodgers, but Elliot is feeding off the domestic violence accusation distractions,
and Dak Prescott’s dismissals, and starting to carry this Cowboys team.
Oakland Raiders 3-5 (-3) @ Miami Dolphins 4-3 (44): Dolphins
23-21
Sunday, 8:30 PM,
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 20%
rain; low 70s)
Reasons:
This game will not be pretty. The Dolphins once dominant defense is slipping (7th yards allowed; 15th
points allowed), having given up 68 points the past two weeks, but they’re
still good enough to stop an Oakland offense (20th overall) that has underperformed to say the least.
The Dolphins offense is record-breaking abysmal (32nd points scored; 32nd yards gained),
managing only 13.1 ppg, so the hapless Raiders defense (23rd points allowed; 26th yards allowed) won’t
have to worry about stopping anyone. Getcha’ popcorn ready, but don’t cook it
on the stove in case you fall asleep.
The Green Bay Packers season is essentially over now that Aaron Rodgers has been shelved for several weeks, although Rodgers could return for the playoffs - if Green Bay makes it.
Detroit Lions 3-4 (-2) @ Green Bay Packers 4-3 (43.5):
Lions 24-20
Monday, 8:30 PM, Lambeau
Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Freezing;
low 30s)
Reasons: Is any game
featuring the Green Bay Packers without Aaron Rodgers worth watching? It
reminds me of the famous philosophical question about the falling tree making a
noise in an empty wood. That’s how I picture the Packers on Monday night: Falling
trees making no noise with no one watching. Having said that, I’m putting my
trust in the indoor Detroit Lions of all teams, at Lambeau Field, in freezing
temperatures. Why do I feel like I’m going to regret this?
Week 9 #NFL byes: Chicago
Bears; Cleveland Browns; Los Angeles Chargers; Minnesota Vikings; New England
Patriots; Pittsburgh Steelers
Stay tuned for Tuesday’s
Gone: Week 9 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
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