2017 NFL SEASON
Week
13: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads
& analysis)
Week
12 results: 13-3 wins (season: 94-55; .631); 7-8-1 v. spread (season: 71-76-2);
.477)
I bet at this point whatever Dak Prescott would want to say to Ezekiel Elliot wouldn't be very pleasant.
Thursday, 8:25 PM, AT&T
Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The game started
as a pick and slowly morphed into the Washington Football Team being favored by 1.5
points, which on the road means they’re really favored by almost five points.
The pick probably made more sense because these teams could not be more evenly
matched, at least statistically. Not only do these teams share the same losing
record, both teams are ranked within five teams of each other in points, points against,
yards gained, yards allowed and yards per play, and aren't far apart in
turnover ratio. In fact, statistically Washington loses games by an average
score of 23.5-25.1; by the same measure Dallas loses games by an average score
of 22.5-24.5. As you can see, both teams have similar point differentials, too.
The teams are also dealing with similar attrition issues, which is the main
reason both teams have played so inconsistently. That doesn’t change tonight as
Dallas could be without three starting offensive linemen to accompany two
missing linebackers, including their best defender in Sean Lee. Washington is
dealing with issues on defense, but will that even matter against this shambled
Dallas offense?
Minnesota Vikings 9-2 (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons 7-4 (47): Falcons 23-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes-Benz Dome, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The last time
the Vikings lost was Week 4, to the Detroit Lions, 14-7, and since then
Minnesota has won seven straight by an average score of 27-17, which would put
them near or at the top in point differential over those seven weeks (Minnesota ranks 6th at 6.9 ppg
for the season). The Falcons are on their own little three-game winning
streak, including wins vs. Dallas and at Seattle. The Falcons, normally safe at
home, are only 3-2 on the year so far this season, however, and only four of
their wins came against teams with a shot at the playoffs, and those teams
include Green bay and Detroit. To boot, only two of Atlanta’s four losses have
come against quality teams (NE; CAR).
Regardless, the Falcons feel due, for whatever that’s worth. Julio Jones is
coming off his best game of the season and the Vikings trying to make a
quarterback controversy out of nothing when the team has been playing great is
concerning.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather:
Sunny; high 40s)
Reasons:
The Bills are still alive in the AFC and the Patriots have had issues traveling
to Buffalo late in the season in the past, but all that really tells me is the
Patriots won’t cover, but I’ve said that most of the season and I’ve been
wrong. Buffalo’s offense is a disaster in November, but the Patriots have
serious attrition issues on defense, so maybe the Bills score more than the
17.75 ppg they averaged in November.
The New England Patriots will look to keep Tom Brady upright and healthy against the Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon.
San Francisco 49ers 1-10
(+3) @ Chicago Bears 3-8 (41): 49ers 21-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Soldiers Field, Chicago, IL (Weather:
Sunny; high 50s)
Reasons:
I’m such a homer I’m taking Jimmy G on the road vs. Chicago in an early afternoon
game over the hapless Bears led by rookie Mitch Trubisky, who I wouldn’t taker
over Jimmy G if my life depended on it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-7
(+2.5) @ Green Bay Packers 5-6 (45): Packers 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Reasons: Aaron Rodgers
was seen flinging the football all over the place this week and the one
consensus coming out of practice in Green Bay was, “We wish we hadn’t put
Rodgers on IR…” Ohh, shucks. The Packers won’t get Rodgers back until at least
Week 15, but they could be out of the playoffs by then considering the woeful
Buccaneers have nearly the same chance of making the playoffs.
Houston Texans 4-7 (+7) @ Tennessee Titans 7-4
(43):
Titans 23-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Reasons: The Texans are
1-3 since they lost Deshaun Watson for the season and have only averaged 17 ppg
in that same span. To make matters worse Houston is dealing with a much
attrition of any team in the league, The Titans are 5-1 in their last six
games, their only loss coming to the Pittsburgh Steelers, perhaps the AFC’s
best team. Tennessee is also 4-1 at home (Houston
is 1-4 on the road) and don’t have a misinformed Twitter mob led by the insufferable
Clay Travis bringing pitchforks and torches to protest outside the game, either,
so there’s that.
The Tennessee Titans are on a hot streak and are looking to make it to the playoffs for the first time in Marcus Mariota's short career.
Denver Broncos 3-8 (-1.5) @ Miami Dolphins 4-7 (40):
Dolphins 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Reasons: The Denver
Broncos were once the most feared defense in the NFL, so why are the Dolphins
favored? Well, technically they’re not, being 1.5-point “favorites” at home,
but Denver has become atrocious, and they’ll be missing their best secondary defender
in Two Chainz to suspension. The Broncos have lost seven straight games and
have only managed 14 ppg in that stretch; the Dolphins have their own five-game
losing streak going, and have only managed 16.4 ppg in their own putrid stretch.
By my calculations that just over two point per game, and the spread is 1.5
points. Imagine that.
Kansas City Chiefs 6-5
(-3.5) @ New York Jets 4-7 (43.5): Chiefs 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Overcast; high 40s)
Reasons: Things have
become so bad in Kansas City, losers of five of their last six games after
starting the season 5-0, that the Chiefs found Darrelle Revis in the junkyard
and convinced themselves he was worth it. Revis is no Eric Berry, so Chiefs
fans can just put that hope right back to bed. The funny thing is they signed
Revis the week they played the Jets, which is funny enough in itself, but also
makes me wonder if the Chiefs were as fooled by the Jets air attack as other
teams have been this season (234.5 passing
yards per game off the arm of Josh McCown). The Jets have also lost five of
their last six games, but no one expected anything from the Jets this season.
What an awful game this is going to be.
Indianapolis Colts 3-8 (+9.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 7-4
(40.5):
Jaguars 24-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons: The Colts are so
bad it’s hard to see how they’ve won three games, but such is the NFL, the sport
with the most parody, according to the NFL. That’s probably why the same four
teams have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl the past 20 years. I digress.
The funny thing is I would actually take the Colts quarterback, Jacoby
Brissett, and put him on the Jaguars if such things were up to me, because
Blake Bortles could handicap this Jaguars team. I hope Eli Manning gets
released by the Giants and is reconnected with Tom Coughlin in Jacksonville so
Eli can get another cheap Super Bowl like his older brother did.
Joe Flacco, statistically one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in 2017, should stick to handing the ball off if the Baltimore Ravens want to win.
Detroit Lions 6-5 (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens 6-5 (43.5):
Ravens 21-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Reasons: The Lions were a
few plays from tying the Vikings on Thanksgiving, but ultimately came up short
against one of the league’s best defenses and overall teams. The Ravens are 3-1
since losing to those same Vikings Week 8 (24-16)
and have only allowed fewer than 10 ppg in that stretch, technically making
them one of the hottest teams in the NFL over the past four games. The Lions
have given up nearly 24 ppg over their last four games (3-1), including that exact amount to both the Bears and the Browns over
that stretch. The Lions just aren’t very good, so even the 32nd-ranked
Joe Flacco, backed by one of the best
defenses in the NFL, can beat them.
Cleveland Browns 0-11
(+14) @ Los Angeles Chargers 5-6
(44):
Chargers 27-17
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Stub Hub Center, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Reasons: Don’t look now
but the Chargers are, well, charging. Los Angeles is 5-2 in their last seven
games after starting the season 0-4, and the two losses in those seven games
came to New England (21-13) and
Jacksonville in OT (20-17). Phillip
Rivers is heating up and the defense has only allowed 18.4 ppg on the season,
let alone those seven aforementioned games (15.6
ppg allowed). The Cleveland Browns are winless and that’s really all you
need to know about them.
New York
Giants 2-9 (+8.5) @ Oakland Raiders 5-6 (41.5): Raiders 24-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Reasons: The Giants were “supposed”
to have a top-five defense in 2017, yet the Raiders defense, as bad as
anticipated, has allowed 0.6 fewer points per game than the Giants. Let’s not
even get into these two offenses, please; they’re offensive. Sorry. But I’m not as sorry as these two teams, easily
two of the biggest underachievers in the NFL this season. The Giants doubled
down this week by benching quarterback Eli Manning, who was in the midst of a
210-consecutive game playing streak, the longest active streak in the NFL until
the Giants rudely placed the 2-9 record blame squarely on his shoulders,
despite having a terrible head coach and a defense that imploded, to put it
politely.
Despite the Carolina Panthers 8-3 record it seems like it's been an up-and-down year for Cam Newton and the Panthers
Carolina Panthers 8-3 (+5) @ New Orleans Saints 8-3
(48.5):
Saints 27-21
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Both teams come
into the game leading the NFC South with 8-3 records. The Panthers come in
allowing only 18.8 ppg, good for a top-ten defense; the Saints come in scoring
29.3 ppg, good for a top-four offense. Something has to give and I’m guessing
it’ll be that top-ten defense on the road in New Orleans. Carolina’s
inconsistent offense is on the mend again, and Cam Newton will have a lot more
trouble moving the ball on this Saints defense (12th points allowed; 15th yards allowed, many
coming in garbage time) than in previous years.
Los Angeles Rams 8-3 (-7) @ Arizona Cardinals 5-6
(44.5):
Rams 28-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The last time
these two teams played (Week 8) the
Rams won 33-0. Expect the same result with a slightly less lopsided score.
Philadelphia Eagles 10-1 (-5) @ Seattle Seahawks 7-4 (47): Eagles 24-21
Sunday, 8:30 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Cloudy; high 40s)
Reasons:
The Eagles come into this game healthy and on fire. Their second-year
quarterback Carson Wentz is an MVP front-runner leading the league’s top
offense (31.9 ppg) and the
Philadelphia defense is one of the best in the league, allowing only 17.4 ppg (3rd points allowed; 6th
yards allowed). The Seahawks defense is right up there (8th yards allowed; 9th
points allowed), although they’re not nearly as intimidating as in years
past, but that’s due to attrition more than anything else. Seattle’s offense,
anchored by Russell Wilson’s magical ways, is suddenly a top-ten offense (8th yards allowed; 10th
points scored). You read that right; Seattle has nearly identical ranks on
both sides of the ball in respective categories, which is not only weird, but
indicative of a great team, certainly better than their 7-4 record would
indicate. I bet the Seahawks get up for this game and…cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-2 (-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 5-6
(43):
Steelers 21-17
Monday, 8:30 PM, Paul Brown
Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny; high
50s)
Reasons: On paper the Steelers
destroy the Bengals, but this game won’t be played on paper, but rather on a bloody
field in southern Ohio. These two teams hate each other, which marginalizes
statistical analysis to point where it’s almost point-less. Truth be told the
Steelers are a much better football team that really hasn’t even reached their offensive
potential, although the one respectable aspect of the Bengals team is their
defense (10th points allowed: 19.5
ppg), so there’s a chance it may not be reached in Week 13, either, especially
with Antonio Brown questionable. The Steelers should continue their six-game
winning streak Monday night, but it may come with a price.
Stay tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 13 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday.
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