The Cowboys are back in the playoffs for the first time in years...let's just say Cowboys' fans are hoping for better results this time.
Week 18: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
WILD
CARD EDITION
WILD CARD ROUND RESULTS: 2-2 wins; 2-2 v. spread
Arizona Cardinals
11-5 (+6.5)
@ Carolina Panthers 7-8-1 (38): Panthers
21-17 Panthers 27-16
Saturday, 4:20 PM, B of A
Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: 70%
rain; high 40s)
Reasons: The cynics will
say the Carolina Panthers backed into the playoffs and got lucky landing a
reeling Arizona Cardinals team on their third quarterback. Although factually
they might be correct, as the Panthers are only the second team in NFL history
to make the playoffs, and the Cardinals couldn’t be picking a worse time to
lose four of six games, the Panthers are no joke. Statistically the Panthers
are the better offensive team over the course of the entire season, and despite
the Cardinals winning several games early in the season via multiple turnovers,
the Panthers (+3) take the ball away
nearly as much as the Cardinals (+8).
The Panthers also have the NFL’s 7th-ranked rushing team, mostly a
function of the last several weeks. The difference here is defense, where the
Cardinals remain one of the league’s elite; I say ‘remain’ because it was only
11 months ago the Panthers were as elite, remember? Unfortunately for the
Cardinals these Panthers have found that 2013 form, holding opponents to 11.2
ppg over their last five games since their Week 12 bye. Consider the Cardinals
will be playing third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley in the pouring rain and
Arizona could be in for a long day. The Cardinals will certainly give the
offensive line and Cam Newton trouble, but Newton is finding his own stride since
the car accident that left him with two transfer process fractures in his lower
back, and he’ll do just enough to win at home.
After taking a 10-0 dominant lead in the first
quarter, the Panthers then missed a FG, punted, and threw an INT, allowing the
Cardinals to take the 14-10 lead before Gano redeemed himself hitting a 43-yd
FG to go into the half down 14-13. Then the Panthers defense went 2013 on the
Cardinals, themselves a top-ranked defense in 2014, and suffocated Arizona to point of
extinction. Despite several errors, including two fumbles, the Panthers’
defense, specifically linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, were so fired
up, and the Cardinals offense so banged up, that the stats became historic. Consider the Cardinals' offense:
78 total yards for a 1.7 ypp average and 8 first downs.
Baltimore Ravens 10-6
(+3)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5 (45): Steelers
27-24 Ravens 30-17
Saturday, 8:30 PM, Heinz
Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: 90%
freezing rain; low 40s)
Reasons: Stop me when
you’ve heard this one before: The Steelers are playing the Ravens. For the
fourth time in their 19-year history (Baltimore
became an NFL franchise in 1996) and the third time since 2009, these
bitter AFC North division rivals will face off again. Normally two of the best
defense in the league, these two teams come into the 2014 playoffs tow of the
better offensive teams in the NFL;
both teams rank next to each other in the top-ten in scoring offense. Don’t be
fooled though, the Ravens ball on defense, too (6th-ranked scoring defense). These two teams know each
other about as well as any two teams in the NFL could, and they split the
season series 1-1. The final combined score? 49-49. As far as yards are
concerned, these teams match up perfectly, the one exception being how they
gain yards on offense – the Steelers pass the ball while the Ravens dominate
the run game. As far as points the only real difference is on defense, where
the Ravens bend, but the Steelers break, allowing ~4 ppg more. The real
difference here could be the Steelers’ home field advantage, as the Ravens have
struggled the past few road outings.
The Ravens have shown they’re a different beast
in the playoffs, and this year they don’t even need to be, despite losing the
AFC North after seemingly being in control of it. The Steelers went up 3-0 in
the first quarter and never regained the lead, although the Steelers had plenty
of chances in the 4th to tie or take that lead. The Ravens defense
sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times and forced two INTs, and Joe Flacco kept
his playoff mystique going, giving the Ravens some hope that he may actually earn
that post-Super Bowl contract.
Cincinnati Bengals
10-5-1 (+3.5)
@ Indianapolis Colts 11-5 (49): Bengals
28-27 Colts 27-10
Sunday, 1:05 PM, Luca Oil
Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons: This game
features the two most unpredictable playoff teams in 2015. The Bengals are 5-3
in the second half of the season, and squandered their chance to win the
division (and possibly host a playoff
game) when they lost to division rival Pittsburgh in Week 17, and it could
be argued that the Colts rely too much on Andrew Luck and lose big games to
good opponents. Four of the Colts’ five losses were to playoff teams, the other
was to Philadelphia, who could have made the playoffs if not for tiebreakers. It
could also be argued the Colts played in the second-worst division in the NFL,
the AFC South, which featured Jacksonville and Tennessee (five combined wins), but the fact of the matter is the Colts beat
the Bengals in their Week 7 matchup 27-0. The Bengals are the more talented
team, but could be without a healthy AJ Green, and the Colts have the prolific
offense, but they turn the ball over far too much (-5). The Bengals don’t bode well in big time games under Marvin
Lewis and Andy Dalton, and the game is in Indianapolis, but something tells me
Jeremy Hill is going to open up the passing game and also help keep Andrew Luck
off the field. The fact that the Colts have only played three meaningful games
in the past seven weeks since their bye, and they lost two of them (NE, DAL), also has something to do with
it.
Why did I pick the Bengals on the road in a playoff
game? I guess because I had a first-time-for-everything (in a long time) mentality.
That was a silly mistake, as the best young quarterback in the NFL far
outplayed one Andy Dalton, who is supposed to be one of the best young QBs in
the league, yet manages to destroy every chance he gets at solidifying that
notion in any fan’s mind. Jeremy Hill, on fire the past few weeks, was held to 47
yards on only 13 carries, and was ineffective to say the least on play action plays. The Colts now travel to Denver for a matchup everyone in the world
wants to see almost as much as Peyton v. Eli.
Detroit Lions 11-5 (+6.5) @
Dallas Cowboys 12-4 (48): Cowboys
24-21 Cowboys 24-20
Sunday, 4:40 PM, AT&T
Stadium, Dallas, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Lions are
the luckiest team in the Wild Card round getting Ndamukong Suh back from an
appealed suspension (reduced to $70,000
fine), because now they actually have a small chance. People mock the
Carolina Panthers for backing into the playoffs, but sometimes I wonder if this
Lions team evens deserves to be there. The Lions “won” their games this season
20-18, and while their defense was one of the best in the NFL, the Lions
offense, rife with talent, was disappointing to say the least. Six of the
Lions’ eleven wins were by seven or fewer points – all six to teams that missed the playoffs. In several of those
games the Lions had come back from being down. In fact, the Lions only had five
statement wins, and only one of those wins came against a winning
team (GB). In other words, besides an
elite defense, the Lions aren’t that good. The Cowboys, on the other hand, are
very good. In addition to boasting the league’s second-ranked rushing attack
and Tony Romo’s MVP season, the Cowboys’ have the 5th-ranked scoring
offense and Dallas’ defense is no longer a crutch. The Cowboys might not be the
best home team (4-4), but it’s not as
if the Lions are road warriors (4-4).
Matt Stafford might be coming home to Texas, where he’s played well in the
past, but his only other career playoff game was also on the road and didn’t
end well (45-28 loss to NO in 2011).
The Cowboys are on a mission and the Lions still don’t belong.
Lions lead 20-7 midway through the 3rd
quarter. Tell me you weren’t thinking, “Here the Cowboys go again”. Then, in a
move we haven’t seen in decades, the Dallas Cowboys strapped up the boots,
clicked the spurs, and got back on the horse and rode…right through the hearts
of Ndamukong Suh and the Detroit Lions all the way to a controversial 24-20
win. Ok, the pass interference call hardly had anything to do with the final
outcome, and it wasn’t pass interference anyway. That said this game was as
much about the Lions losing as it was the Cowboys winning. This was like a game
between two spoiled rich brats, and the slightly older more experienced one
narrowly escaped with a victory. It’s fitting that one of these teams had to go
home after the game, because it’s clear the loser wouldn’t belong. The Cowboys
certainly deserve their glory in 2014-2015, but they’ve managed less with even
more talent in the very recent past; the Lions could be the most talented
mediocre team in the history of the league. What transpired Sunday was an
incredible game, but it’s both amazing and sad the Lions can’t mange more
offense with the weapons they possess. The prize? A trip to frigid Lambeau
Field for the Ice Bowl II. Last temperature reading? 9 degrees.
Check back Wednesday to see how we did in Tuesday’s Gone: Week 18 #NFL
Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!
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