The Raiders might have to get used to this scene Thursday Night, as Jamal Charles and the Kansas City Chiefs are rolling.
Week 12: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 12
results (season): 10-4 (117-57-1 .669); 8-6 (78-96-1 .446)
Kansas City Chiefs
7-3 (-7.5)
@ Oakland Raiders 0-10 (42.5): Chiefs
27-20 Raiders 24-20
Thursday, 8:25 PM, O. Co.
Stadium, Oakland, CA (Weather: 30% rain;
mid-50s)
Reasons: They say the
away team is at a serious disadvantage on Thursday Night games due to the short
rest and travel involved on the short week, yet the Patriots two-point win over
the Jets Week 7 is the only thing keeping the record from being .500 (5-5). I’m not counting the Seattle v. Green Bay game, as it was the first
game of the season, and didn’t involve a short week, the very thing blamed for
the away team’s supposed problems; however, even if we counted the Opening
Night game, the record would only stand at 7-5. My point is other than the
scoring differential, which is significant (21.8
points), the record, the important number, is basically a moot point. The
Kansas City Chiefs come in rolling, having just beat the defending Super Bowl
Champion Seahawks 24-20. The Chiefs are a terrible passing team (31st), and they have a hard
time stopping the run (25th)
– other than that they ball. Kansas City is the league’s top rush defense, and
2nd-ranked scoring defense; on the other side of the ball they have
the 4th-ranked running offense and rank 3rd in 3rd-down
efficiency. The Chiefs also have quality wins over New England and Seattle. The
Raiders have zero wins, and rank last
in the NFL in run offense, scoring offense, and first downs, and turnover ratio;
they rank in the bottom-five in passing yards (26th), 3rd downs (30th), run defense (27th),
and scoring defense (27th).
The Raiders basically stand no chance, except they’re home on Thursday Night,
to which I refer you to the first sentence of my analysis. One could claim this
AFC West rivalry match up could be a trap game for Kansas City, coming off the
big win against Seattle, to which I refer you to their opponent.
The Raiders went up 14-0 and seemed to control
the game from the start, although KC beat them 17-10 in the second half. Even
in victory Oakland managed to embarrass themselves, celebrating a win before the
game was even over; the celebration dance and subsequent race to the line of
scrimmage is available on You Tube. The Chiefs got caught on the road on a Thursday
Night, and the Raideres had to win at some point.
Detroit Lions 7-3 (+7) @ New England Patriots 8-2 (48): Patriots 28-20 Patriots
34-9
Sunday, 1 PM, Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny, low 50s)
Reasons: The Lions may be
one of the best statistical teams in
the NFL, but the Patriots are one of
the best teams in the NFL. The Lions are good, don’t get me wrong, but three of
their seven wins have been by four points or fewer (two were by one point), and they’ve had to come from behind in the
second half or 4th quarter in their last three wins. The Lions don’t
allow many yards and they allow the fewest points in the NFL (15.6 ppg), but they don’t score much,
either (19.2 ppg). The Patriots are
balling, winners of six straight games and eight of their last nine and rank
among the league leaders in point differential (1st), points (2nd),
turnover ratio (+11), first downs (4th), and red zone efficiency
(6th). The Patriots are
the better team and they’re at home.
The Patriots once again made the Detroit Lions
look average against the great teams. The Lion were manhandled so badly that Lions’
center Dominic Raiola took the cheap shot of the year by cut blocking the
Patriots’ defensive line on a kneel-down. Confident he wouldn’t be fined,
Raiola was fine $10,000 today. I guess they’re dirty on both sides of the ball in
Detroit.
Cleveland Browns 6-4 (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons 4-6 (47.5): Browns 28-27 Browns 26-24
Sunday, 1 PM, Georgia Dome,
Atlanta GA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: People are back
off the Browns’ bandwagon, but losing to a relatively good Texans team
shouldn’t warrant such action. The Falcons, on the other hand, are the lamest
division leaders in the NFL. Atlanta can throw the ball (6th) and score TDs in the red zone (3rd), and that’s about it. Normally the Falcons ball at
home, but not in 2014 (2-2), which
doesn’t bode well against a good Browns team, especially when that 31.2 ppg
average at home is severely inflated by a 56-point performance v. the Buccaneers. If the Browns can get
to Matt Ryan at all it could be a long day for the Falcons, and Josh Gordon is
back, which means the Browns get to stretch the field and make life even harder
for one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
The Browns seemed destined to lose this game,
or least Brian Hoyer seemed destined to lose it before he hooked up with Josh
Gordon with time running out, and the Browns took advantage of terrible clock management
by Mike Smith to steal another win after being down with 10 seconds or less
remaining.
Tennessee Titans 2-8 (+11) @ Philadelphia Eagles 7-3 (48.5): Eagles 31-20 Eagles
43-24
Sunday, 1 PM, Lincoln Financial
Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny,
low 50s)
Reasons: This is a pretty
easy call. The Eagles are 5-0 at home this year and average 35.4 ppg (PHI averages 30 ppg overall). The Eagles
are one of the least efficient red zone teams in the NFL, and they turn the
ball over far too much (-9), but that
won’t matter against the Titans, who are one of the worst statistical teams in
the NFL, have the lowest 3rd-down efficiency (30%), and they’re 1-4 on the road this year averaging 14.8 ppg,
which includes a 24-10 win at KC Week
1.
The Titans are terrible and the Eagles are
loaded with talent.
Green Bay Packers 7-3 (-8.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 4-6 (48.5): Packers 28-21 Packers
24-21
Sunday, 1 PM, TCF Stadium,
Minneapolis, MN (Weather: 30% rain;
mid-40s)
Reasons: Another
relatively easy call, the Packers might be the hottest team in the NFL, winners
of six of their last seven games, while averaging 42.2 ppg during those six
wins. Green Bay also leads the league in scoring offense (33 ppg), turnover ratio (+14)
and point differential (+10), and are
among the leaders in red zone efficiency (9th)
and 3rd-down efficiency (44%).
Consider the Packers defense is playing well, and they’re dangerous. The
Vikings are a great pass defense (8th)
and that’s about it, but Aaron Rodgers is about to make them bad at that, too.
The Vikings surprised everyone and kept this a
game until the very end. The Vikings clamped down on defense and held Aaron Rodgers
to 209 passing yards, less than Teddy Bridgewater (210 yards). Eddie Lacy stole
the show with 125 rushing yards and a TD on 25 carries.
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-9 (+14) @ Indianapolis Colts 6-4 (50.5): Colts 30-20 Colts
23-3
Sunday, 1 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium,
Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Talk about an
easy call. Division rivals and a relative increase in the play of the Jaguars
aside, this might be the easiest of the last three games. The Jaguars are now
statistically the worst team in the NFL, and the actual worst team in the NFL now that the Raiders shocked the world
and beat the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night. The Colts were just
destroyed by the New England Patriots, and the league’s top passing offense
will be looking to rebound by taking revenge out on the lowly Jaguars.
The Jaguars are awful. They managed 194 yards
on offense and were shut out for the last 49 minutes of the game.
Cincinnati Bengals 6-3-1 (+1.5) @ Houston Texans 5-5 (43.5): Texans 24-21 Bengals 22-13
Sunday, 1 PM, Reliant Stadium,
Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Houston
Texans have been up and down all season, their success seemingly all predicated
on JJ Watt. At least that’s what ESPN told me. The Texans are a relatively
mediocre team, save their scoring defense (8th),
and their running game (3rd),
but Arian Foster is questionable…again. The team on the other side seems to
have been up and down all season, but in reality, other than a tough stretch
Weeks 5-7 (NE-CAR-IND), the Bengals
remain one of the better teams in the NFL, despite a dramatic statistical drop
off. One thing the Texans do well is get after the quarterback, which could be
bad news for Andy Dalton, although if they don’t get after Dalton, the Texans
will be in trouble. This game could come down to the running attack of the
Bengals, which in addition to Jeremy Hill get Giovani Benard back, but I like
the Texans at home.
The Bengals held the ball for 18 more minutes
and gained 125 more yards on offense on their way to a solid road victory.
Back-up quarterback Ryan Mallet was injured, so it’s back to Ryan Fitzpatrick
next week. The banged-up Texans couldn’t handle the two-headed monster of
Jeremy Hill and Giovani Benrard and Cincinnati kept pace in the AFC North, the
first division in history to have every member three games over .500.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-8 (+5.5) @ Chicago Bears 4-6 (46.5): Bears 24-20 Bears 21-13
Sunday, 1 PM, Soldier Field,
Chicago, IL (Weather: 100% rain; low 50s)
Reasons: Wow, what a
terrible match up. Both of these teams had high hopes coming into 2014, and now
both teams are fighting or their lives in awful divisions, with little hope of
winning them. The crazy thing is that when one looks at this match up they’re
immediately reminded of great defenses – these two teams have the worst defenses in the NFL (TB – 30th; CHI – 32nd).
The Buccaneers are hobbled and the Bears are at home, which actually shouldn’t
mean anything – they’re 1-3 at home. It’s also going to rain all day, which
could further hurt Jay Cutler’s already hurt game, but the Buccaneers are so
bad they make the Bears look mediocre.
Josh McCown (341
passing yards; 1 TD) seriously outplayed Jay Cutler (130 passing yards; 1 TD),
but four turnovers spelled doom for the Buccaneers in the driving rain. The
Bears also only gained 204 yards of offense, but a win is a win, and the Bears desperately
needed one.
Arizona Cardinals 9-1 (+7) @ Seattle Seahawks 6-4 (41): Seahawks 21-20 Seahawks 19-3
Sunday, 4:05 PM, CenturyLink
Filed, Seattle, WA (Weather: 100% rain;
low 50s)
Reasons: One of the best
games of the week could belong to Mother Nature. The Cardinals are the ones who
knocked off the might Seahawks at CenturyLink Field last season, and if it
weren’t for the weather I would have predicted the same thing today. Drew
Stanton fits well with this Bruce Arians offense, and the Cardinals’ defense
remains one of the best in the NFL (2nd
scoring defense; 3rd v. run). The Seahawks are coming off a
tough loss v. the Chiefs, but remain
the top rushing attack in the NFL, and still ball on defense, ranking in the
top-10 against the run and pass, and it’s supposed to be terrible weather,
something the Cardinals aren’t used to.
The Seahawks settled down, played defense, and
let Marshawn Lynch loose, both on the field and at the mic. Yeah.
Saint Louis Rams 4-6 (+5) @ San Diego Chargers 6-4 (43.5): Chargers 24-21
Chargers 27-24
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Qualcomm
Stadium, San Diego, CA (Weather: Sunny,
mid-70s)
Reasons: The Rams have
been on fire of late, beating the Broncos, Seahawks, and 49ers in three of the
past five weeks. Still, the Rams remain one of the worst teams in the NFL
statistically and the Chargers have some game, although at this point they
don’t seem too much better than the Rams on either side of the ball. The
Chargers lost three games in a row before their Week 10 bye, only to come back
from their long rest to barely beat the lowly Raiders 13-6. One could argue the
Raiders just beat the Chiefs, which could make that 13-6 win more meaningful,
but has anything meaningful come out of a Thursday Night game? I want to pick
the Rams badly, but my head tells my not too.
Called it.
Miami Dolphins 6-4 (+7) @ Denver Broncos 7-3 (48): Broncos 27-21 Broncos 39-36
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High
Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny, low
40s)
Reasons: The spread must
reflect Lamar Miller’s questionable status, the travel to chilly Denver, and
the Broncos anger, because the Dolphins are a great football team, especially
defensively, and the Broncos have proven they’re vulnerable against good
defenses, especially great front four units. The Broncos will be missing Monte
Ball and Ronny Hillman, putting the pressure on Manning to win the game against
a top-10 defense. It’s a tough task, but Manning’s a Hall of Famer player for a
reason, and the broncos are looking to keep pace in the AFC West.
Dolphins stretched the suddenly-not-so-tough Broncos to the brink.
Washington Natives 3-7 (+9) @ San Francisco 49ers 6-4 (44): 49ers 24-20 49ers
17-13
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Levi’s Stadium,
Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny, mid-60s)
Reasons: The Natives
remain one of the best statistical teams in the NFL, yet one of the worst
actual teams in the NFL, so the circus continues for the RGIII’s, which is a
far more appropriate name than their current nickname. The 49ers are a stellar
defensive unit, which is going to make life a nightmare for RGIII once again.
The question will be whether Colin Kaepernick can stay on his feet long enough
to matriculate the ball down the field to score points. The 49ers are one of
the worst teams in the NFL once they’re in the red zone, and that has to end v. the Natives, who are much better on
defense than many people realize. Turnovers will be the key to this game (WAS - -11; SF - +10).
The Natives tried and failed, so miserably in fact that the Natives benched RGIII for the following game after the worst performance of his career.
Dallas Cowboys 7-3 (-3.5) @ New York Giants 3-7 (47.5): Cowboys 24-21 Cowboys 31-28
Sunday, 8:30 PM, MetLife Stadium,
East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny, low
50s)
Reasons: The Cowboys are
the superior team, and Eli Manning is coming off of a 5 INT performance. Some
may think that spells a rebound game at home v. a Cowboys team that lost two of their last three games before
their bye last week. The weather will be nice and the Cowboys will be rested,
which could spell doom for the Giants.
It's a little shocking the Ginats made it this close, which could be a sign of things to come for the Cowboys, who not only stink in November and December, but have already won their requisite eight games.
New York Jets 2-8 (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills 5-5 (41.5): Jets 21-20 Bills 38-3
Monday,
7:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI MOVED - SNOW (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Talk about
Mother Nature having an effect on the game. Nearly eight feet of snow fell in
the Buffalo area, forcing the game to be moved to Ford Field in Detroit.
Apparently tickets have been offered for free to local residents to fill the
stadium, so it will be a great chance for Detroit-area residents to go and
harass Jim Schwartz. As for the game, the Jets are one of the worst teams in
the NFL, but the Bills lives are upside down right now, let alone the fact
they’ve barely had time to practice. Sometimes all the statistics in the world
don’t trump life. As my late graduate advisor always said: “Sometimes life gets
in the way.”
I blew this game big time. I underestimated the relief of the Bills' players once their families were safe, along with how terrible the Jets actually are.
Baltimore Ravens 6-4 (+3) @ New Orleans Saints 4-6 (50): Saints 27-24 Ravens
34-27
Monday,
8:30 PM, Mercedes-Benz Dome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Saints are
leading the NFC South division at 4-6. The Ravens are last in their division at 6-4. Confused? So is everyone else about
the play of the New Orleans Saints. Besides a perennially great offense, the
Saints have an awful defense and one of the worst turnover ratios (-9) in the league. The Ravens, on the
other hand, rank in the top-10 in several major statistical categories, and
have losses to the Colts, Bengals, and a hot Steelers team Week 9. The Saints
will be facing a great defense for the third week in a row at home (SF-CIN-BAL), but unlike the last two,
the Saints will figure this one out.
The Ravens stay tied atop their division after a big road win; the Saints stay tied atop their division after a big road loss. That's the NFL for you folks, although both are unprecedented.
Check back and see how we did Wednesday in Tuesday’s Gone: Week 12 #NFL
Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!
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