Week 2: #NFL Weekly Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)

Week 2 #NFL Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)

Week 2 Notes: What a breath of fresh air – literally – as 15 of this week’s 16 NFL games are outdoors. The truly amazing thing is that only three games are forecasted for even a chance of bad weather. In fact, every game but those three is forecasted for sunny weather in the 60s-70s - the main reason why I took the over on 11 of the 16 games. The only two remaining night games – at San Francisco and at Indianapolis – are on the west coast and indoors, respectively. It will be sunny at kickoff for Sunday “Night” Football and will remain so for most of the game (8:30 EST; 5:30 PST). With a few exceptions – e.g. games featuring elite defenses (Seattle; Carolina) or bad weather (Carolina; Tampa Bay) – this should be a high-scoring week in Pro Football.

Pittsburgh Steelers 1-0 (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 0-1 (44.5): Steelers 27-24 (51) 

Thursday, 8:25 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 30% rain, mid-60s)

Reasons: This is a tale of two relatively evenly matched teams, both part of the grind-it-out AFC North division. The big difference here is that the Ravens have to play on national television at their home stadium the week of the biggest media firestorm I can remember, brought on by their former running back Ray Rice and his odious domestic violence case. The ancient Greeks couldn’t have imagined such timely drama. The Ravens awarded over 500 press passes - over a 300% increase to normal games - and chose Rihanna to sign the National Anthem, a celebrity domestic violence victim herself. Wow. How about some football? With only one game under our belt we don’t have much to go on, but Week 1 provided some insight. The Steelers were up 27-3 at the half v. the Browns, but it took a Shaun Suisham FG with 5 seconds left to seal – or steal – the win. The Ravens, on the other hand, were down 15-0 on five unanswered Mike Nugent FGs before the Ravens scored 16 unanswered points of their own; 48 seconds after the Raven’s second TD Bengals QB Andy Dalton connected with WR AJ Green for a spectacular TD to seal – or steal – the win. With only one game’s worth of statistics to go on, it might be safe to assume the Steelers passing game can take advantage of the Ravens sub-par secondary, as everything else between these two teams is relatively even. The emotions of the night will either carry the Ravens, or it’ll crush them.

New England 0-1 (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings 1-0 (49): Patriots 28-27

Sunday, 1 PM, TFC Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Sunny; mid-60s)

Reasons: Blame it on the heat, but the Patriots were smoked in the second half of last week’s game v. the Dolphins after dominating the first half. Miami has a good defense, especially up front, so it’s not totally surprising as a great front four is Tom Brady’s kryptonite. The Minnesota Vikings don’t have Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon, but the do have Everson Griffen, who will try to duplicate Miami’s defensive game plan. The Vikings defense is much improved from 2013, which will be a problem for the Patriots offense, still clearly a work in progress. Two keys get the Patriots the nod in Week 2: Matt Cassell played for Bill Belichick and Adrian Peterson is deactivated pending his legal issues. Otherwise I’d take the Vikings at home.

Detroit Lions 1-0 (+3) @ Carolina Panthers 1-0 (43.5): Panthers 24-23

Sunday, 1 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: 20% rain; low 70s)

Reasons: The game has let down written all over it for Carolina. It was an emotional week for the Panthers, who are under great public pressure to deactivate Greg Hardy in the wake of his and the NFL’s domestic violence issues. The Panthers play their first home game Sunday; it will also be quarterback Cam Newton’s first game of the season after missing last week’s game due to a fractured ribs. The Lions are coming off an easy win over the lowly Giants, led by Calvin Johnson’s clinic performance and the Lions pass rushers. Unfortunately for the Lions, the weather could keep this game on the ground, where the Panthers excel. It’s probably good for quarterback Matt Stafford, as this could be the most dangerous front seven in the NFL. The weather and the nasty Panthers defense overcomes Cam Newton’s jitters and the Lions aerial attack

Miami Dolphins 1-0 (PK) @ Buffalo Bills 1-0 (43): Dolphins 21-20

Sunday, 1 PM, Ralph Wilson Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; mid-60s)

Reasons: The Dolphins showed the world 2013’s 8-8 campaign was no aberration, and came out strong v. the Patriots last week for a commanding Week 1 win. The Bills weren’t out to show the world anything, but did shock it with a win over the high-flying Bears. Both of these teams excel in two areas: rushing the quarterback and rushing the football. The Bills and Dolphin finished 3^rd and 4th rushing the ball after last week, respectively, and also finished 10^th and 11^th stopping the run. Neither quarterback will light it up, although Ryan Tannehill is capable of it, and both teams have big-time receiving threats (Mike Wallace; Sammy Watkins), but the these two front four units are too good. If this was in Miami they’d be favored by three…but it’s not.

Jacksonville Jaguars 0-1 (+6) @ Washington Natives (43.5): Natives 27-20

Sunday, 1 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)

Reasons: Both of these teams looked horrible last week, but both had excuses via playing two of the better teams in the NFL Week 1. The Jaguars looked pretty good through the first half, but fell apart as quickly as they got going, surrendering 34 unanswered second-half points v. the Eagles to squander the win away. The Natives played the JJ Watts and paid for it. RGIII look awful, averaging less than 1 yard per attempt in the first half. RGIII won’t face JJ Watt this week and JAX is banged up, not that it really matters.

Dallas Cowboys 0-1 (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans 1-0 (49.5): Titans 27-24

Sunday, 1 PM, LP Field, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)

Reasons: There’s a big reason Dallas is getting 3.5 points heading into Nashville: the Dallas defense, although better than we thought v. the 49ers, is not that good and the Titans defense actually is pretty good. The Titans also run the ball well, which will keep the Cowboys star-studded offense off the field. Either way, the Titans could easily rattle Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and make this one easy. I say the Cowboys put up some fight, but continue to disappoint.

Arizona Cardinals 1-0 (-2.5) @ New York Giants 0-1 (42.5): Cardinals 24-20

Sunday, 1 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)

Reasons: This game has the lowest spread of any non-pick game Week 1 and I can’t figure out why for the life of me. Oh wait, the Cardinals are away, so I suppose they’re favored by 0.5. I jest, but the Giants are awful. Sure it’s only one week, but the Giants ranked 29^th, 30^th, and 31^st of 32 teams in three of the four major yardage statistics, and were blown away by the Detroit Lions in Week 1. Arizona played a tough Chargers team and came away with the last-minute come-from-behind win. The Cardinals defense should give the Giants offense fits on Sunday, and the Cardinals offense will take advantage of the Giants poor defense enough to take the win on the road.

New Orleans Saints 0-1 (-6.5) @ Cleveland Browns (47.5): Saints 30-24

Sunday, 1 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)

Reasons: This game features the two teams that played nail-biters Week 1 and a Browns team that nearly came back from down 27-3 to steal the win from the Steelers, if it weren’t for a last-second FG by Shaun Suisham. The suddenly high-flying Falcons took the Saints off-guard, especially the Saints defense, which was ranked 4^th overall after 2013; the Saints lost to the Falcons in OT after a high-scoring back-and-forth game. The Browns will have a much harder time coming back from any big deficits against the Saints with Ben Tate and Jordan Cameron ruled out. The Saints should roll in this one, but won’t cover. They are on the road up north, after all.

Atlanta Falcons 1-0 (+5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 1-0 (49): Bengals 28-24

Sunday, 1 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)

Reasons: The Falcons sent a message to the NFL v. the Saints last week that this is not the same 4-12 team from 2013. It took OT, but the Falcons defeated division powerhouse New Orleans soundly and looked like they’ll be a tough offense to beat. The Bengals also played a division rival to open the season and escaped a late surge by the Ravens to start 1-0. The Bengals will be without their star linebacker Vontaze Burfict, but these Bengals get after it across the board. Andy Dalton and AJ Green are one of the most dangerous duos in the NFL. I can see the Falcons making a late surge, but the Bengals should win.

St. Louis Rams 0-1 (+6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-1 (37): Buccaneers 20-17

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 20% rain; high 80s)

Reasons: The lowest O/U of the week doesn’t come as a surprise considering the weather could be a major factor and these offenses don’t light up the scoreboard. The Rams are on their 3^rd string quarterback already in Week 2 after Shaun Hill suffered a leg injury, and the Buccaneers will still be seeing Carolina Panther ghosts as the young Rams line continues the elite pass rush. Chris Long may be out 8-10 weeks, but Robert Quinn does the work of two players, and he just signed a monster extension to ease his mind, allowing him to concentrate on keeping the Bucs off the board. Star defensive end Michael Johnson is also out for the Bucs, which makes me wonder how low the O/U would have been if he and Long were playing, but these teams are offensively inept.

Seattle Seahawks 1-0 (-6) @ San Diego Chargers 0-1 (44): Seahawks 27-20

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 80s)

Reasons: The Chargers are a better team than we saw on MNF this past week, but the problem is the Seattle Seahawks are too, and they won their game by 20 points. I rarely say this about any NFL team, especially at home, but these Chargers have no chance against this Seahawks defense. The Chargers air attack should be stifled against the Seahawks secondary, and San Diego’s rushing attack gained the second fewest yards Week 1, although it was against the stout Cardinals defense. Well if the Cardinals are stout, the Seahawks are obese. I look to the Seahawks to make quick work of the Chargers, save a late score in meaningless time. The ‘Hawks are giving six on the road - that means Vegas sees them winning by 9. I’m not that disrespectful…but maybe Seattle fans think I’m being so towards the Seahawks.

Houston Texans 1-0 (-3) @ Oakland Raiders 0-1 (40): Texans 24-14

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Oakland Co. Stadium, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; 70s)

Reasons: After one week in the NFL the Oakland Raiders are statistically the worst team in the league, narrowly beating out the New York Giants. The Raiders were last in three of the four major yardage categories, and managed only 14 points, although most of that is explained away by the New York Jets defense, one of the better units in the NFL. The Texans took care of business at home v. the Natives offense and face an even more underwhelming offense in Week 2. Even without #1 pick Ja’Deveon Clowney, this Texans defense should make mince meat out of the Raiders, who start rookie Derek Carr at quarterback and whose starting running back (MJD) is questionable. The Texans should roll.

New York Jets 1-0 (+8.5) @ Green Bay Packers 0-1 (46): Packers 24-20

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Sunny; mid-60s)

Reasons: The Jets are the top team in the NFL after Week 1 in rushing yards, rushing yards allowed, and passing yards allowed. Unfortunately one week is a small sample size and the Jets Week 1 opponent was the Oakland Raiders (see above). Either way, to say the Jets have a great defense and a good running game would be accurate. The Packers had a similar experience Week 1, except theirs was an opposite experience, having played the best team in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks. This should be another tough defensive battle for the Packers, as the Jets defense is one of the best units in the league. With the home crowd behind them, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers high-flying offense should score enough points to take a win away from the pesky Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs 0-1 (+12) @ Denver Broncos 1-0 (51): Broncos 30-21

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, CO (Weather: 10% rain; low 80s)

Reasons: It’s starting to look like the Chiefs aren’t exactly who we thought they were. The Chiefs may not have gained a bunch of yards or stopped others from gaining them in 2013, but last year KC scored points and kept other teams from scoring them. Not so far in 2014. The Titans may be better than the lay fan thinks, but KC was embarrassed 26-10 at home. That’s not a good look with the a Broncos team coming up that looks like it’s straight out of Super Tecmo Bowl. The Broncos are coming off a win v. the Colts that was sealed by halftime, although the score looks like it was a close game. The Chiefs have plenty of talent and great coaching, but the Broncos should have no problem with these 2014 Chiefs.

Chicago Bears 0-1 (+7) @ San Francisco 49ers 1-0 (48.5): 49ers 27-24

Sunday, 8:30 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-80s)

Reasons: The 49ers, like the Carolina Panthers, are facing major criticism for not sitting defensive end Ray McDonald in the wake of his pending domestic violence case, but it’s unlikely that awkwardness will spoil the 49ers homecoming party, which celebrates the opening of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA Sunday. The Bears come in an offensive juggernaut, so long as it’s not v. a vicious front four like they faced v. the Buffalo Bills. Whoops. Despite being without star defensive end Aldon Smith, facing his own suspension, this 49ers front line is one of the best in the league, and the Bears will have a tougher time in Santa Clara than they ever could have imagined in Buffalo. The Chicago run defense will have no answer for this dangerous run game, which just welcomed Carlos Hyde to the mix. The 49ers won’t roll, but they win.

Philadelphia Eagles 1-0 (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts 0-1 (53.5): Eagles 31-30

Monday, 8:30 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The only game indoors this week will feature two of the league’s best offenses. Like the sounds of that? The Eagles escaped embarrassment Week 1 by scoring 34 unanswered second-half points after being down 17-0 at halftime to steal a win from the hapless Jaguars. The Colts fought hard in the 4^th quarter once the Broncos had fallen asleep, making the 31-24 loss look much closer on paper than it was in reality. That’s not to take anything away from the Colts – they’re good…offensively. Defensively the Colts are miserable, which will be a big problem v. this high-flying Eagles offense. This game represents the highest O/U of the week (53.5), and I expect it to be a full TD over that. I expect the Eagles to go up big early so the whole country gets to witness a patented Andrew Luck comeback. Comebacks don’t always end in wins.

Check back Wednesday and see how we did with Tuesday's Gone: #NFL Week 2 Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!
 
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