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Thursday, December 5, 2013

Week 14 #NFL Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)


Houston Texans (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (43): Texans 24-21
8:25 PM, Ever Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Mild, high 60s, cloudy/foggy)

Reasons: Imagine how hard the Texans would have laughed if you told them they'd have fewer wins than the Jacksonville Jaguars through 13 weeks of the season? It's not a laughing matter. The Texans, once proud owners of a "Super Bowl-or-bust" mentality, have resorted to accusing their opponents of cheating in an attempt to explain their 10-game losing streak. At 2-10 Houston is fast approaching the worst team in the NFL, a designation applied to their Week 14 opponent for a majority of the season. The Texans are coming of their most disappointing of many losses on the season, squandering a 17-6 halftime lead, only to lose to bitter conference rival New England 34-31. The loss even dethroned the Texans as the #1 pass defense in the league. The Jaguars, conversely, are winners of two straight (and three of four) and scored a season-high 32 points v. one of the best defenses in the NFL last week (Cleveland Browns). Statistically the Texans are still a mediocre team, even elite when it comes to pass defense (ranked 2nd), while the Jaguars remain one of the worst statistical teams in the league. Vegas has the Texans giving 3 on the road, which means even Vegas essentially considers them equals. This is the bottom line: It's a short week, these are two bad teams (a combined 5-19), and even the weather could be a problem. This has all the markings a bad game, so maybe we'll get the complete opposite. Doubtful - despite the two straight wins and home field "advantage" (do fans actually go to JAX games?) I have to imagine the Texans get on track, for whatever that's worth, v. what truly is the worst team in the NFL. It'll be close, but the Texans prevail on the road.

Cleveland Browns (+12) @ New England Patriots (45): Patriots 31-20
1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Partly sunny, cold, mid-30s)


Reasons: After coming off two straight 4th quarter/OT come-from-behind wins, the Patriots welcome the reeling Browns for a more straight forward game being favored by 12 at home, although they were favored by 10.5 v. the Texans last week, too. The Browns bring their 5th ranked defense to New England, but those ranks are based on total yards and the Browns play in the AFC North, with the exception of the Bengals, not known for lighting up the scoreboard. The Patriots do, however, and with their major weapon getting healthy finally (Gronkowski) and a stable run game (ranked 12th) they have begun to open things up. If the Browns had any run game to speak of I could see this turning into a game (the Pats run defense is ranked 31st), but they don’t. The Patriots should roll big here.


 Indianapolis Colts (+6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (44): Bengals 27-21
1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Slight chance snow, low 30s)


 Reasons: The Colts recent struggles have really caught the attention of the sharps, because these two teams are both 8-4 and couldn’t be more far apart, evidenced by the 6 point given by CIN. Andrew Luck might be the more celebrated young QB in this game, but it’s Andy Dalton who’s quietly made his case as the best young QB, as Dalton became only the second QB in NFL history to throw for 20 TDs and 3,000 yards in his first two seasons (Peyton Manning). The Colts haven’t won two straight in over a month, while the Bengals are two OT losses from winning eight straight games. Both teams are 8-4 and score 24 ppg, but the Bengals are clearly the better team, with a top-10 defense and an above-average offense. The Colts are not as good as their record and should get exposed by this Bengals team at home.


 Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Green Bay Packers (45): Packers 24-21
1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: 100% snow, very cold, high 10s)


Reasons: WARNING: Barnburner. These two teams are awful; they’re 1-9-1 in their last combined 11 games and both teams will miss the playoffs after being predicted to content for the NFC. Green Bay is coming off 10 days rest after being blown out Thanksgiving, and the Packers suspiciously high-ranking offense should take care of one of the worst defenses in the league at home.


 Oakland Raiders (+3) @ New York Jets (40.5): Jets 20-17
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Cloudy, cold, mid-30s)


 Reasons: Another terrible game in the AFC. These two teams are two of the worst in the league when it come to the passing game, yet two of the best when it comes to the run game. That must speak to the evolution of the NFL because these are two of the worst teams in general in the entire league. In other words, who cares if you’re ranked 5th running the ball (OAK) or 1st v. the run (NYJ) if no one ever runs the ball in this league? Both teams are 1-4 in their last five and only the Jets have a long shot chance at the playoffs. This one will stink.


 Detroit Lions (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (54): Eagles 31-28
1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 70% snow, cold, mid-30s)


Reasons: The Lions destroyed the Packers Thanksgiving and then had 10 days off. That spells doom for these undisciplined, young Lions. I doubt they go into Lincoln Financial Field, where the Eagles have won two straight at home (where they once dominated) and win v. one of the best offensive teams in the NFL. The Lions might stop the run (ranked 3rd), but they won’t stop both, as both of these defenses will have trouble stopping either team. The Lions will get sloppy and give the game to the Eagles.


 Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (40.5): Steelers 24-21
1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: 50% snow, cold, mid-30s) 


Reasons: The Steelers are coming off 10 days rest from a tough loss on the road v. division rival Baltimore Ravens, which could have been their fourth straight win. Neither team will probably make the playoffs, but don’t tell them that before Sunday as this looks to be a decent battle. The Dolphins defense can be tough v. the pass (ranked 9th), but Roethlisberger can be tough v. anyone. The Steelers utilize the 10 days rest and use the Tomlin embarrassment as motivation and get a good road win.


 Buffalo Bills (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (43): Bucs 23-20
1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny, low 80s) 


Reasons: The Bills are losers of four of their last five while the Bucs were the hottest team in the NFL until the Panthers blew them out. This game is not worth analyzing.  


Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ Washington Natives (45): Chiefs 27-24
1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Washington, DC (Weather: 100% wintry mix, cold, low 30s) 


Reasons: These two teams have lost seven straight combined games, one due to injuries and great opponents, one due to being overhyped in the first place. The Chiefs are getting exposed with their defensive injuries and the Natives offense is beginning to click as RGIII finally gets on track, yet I still don’t like this dysfunctional team. The Native’s defense is awful and KC’s offense is much better than people think. The weather could be a factor, in which case Washington’s top-ranked run game might come into use, but I like the Chiefs otherwise.


 Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (43): Ravens 27-24
1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 100% wintry mix, cold, low 30s)


Reasons: The Ravens are coming off 10 days rest, a win v. a tough divisional opponent, and some reassurance that they might still make the playoffs a year after winning it all. The Vikings are 0-5-1 on the road and have a QB making his 3rd start of the season. The Vikings also rely on the run game (ranked 6th), which is one of the Raven’s strongest aspects (ranked 6th), meaning the Vikings might not get much done v. this stingy defense that improves by the week. Ravens roll. 


Tennessee Titans (+12) @ Denver Broncos (49.5): Broncos 31-20
4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: 40% snow, cold, low 10s)


Reasons: Some people have the Titans winning this game. Don’t be foolish. Just because the Broncos score the most TDs and the Titans yield the fewest doesn’t mean anything. When the Broncos played the Chiefs in that first match up it was #1 offense v. #1 defense…that game ended 27-17, meaning both teams didn’t live up to either billing (DEN scored 13 points less than their average; KC gave up 15 points more than their season average). I expect the same from this game – the Broncos top-ranked passing game won’t blast off, but the Titans 7th-ranked pass defense will be giving up a few TDs, be sure of it.


St. Louis Rams (+6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (41.5): Cardinals 27-24
4:25, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, AZ (Weather: Sunny, low 50s)


Reasons: The Rams are one of the few teams with losing records that appear to be much better than their record would indicate; coincidentally the Cardinals are one of the few teams with a winning record that not too many people seem to take seriously. Blame that one on Carson Palmer. The Cardinals are pretty good, but then again, the Rams aren’t that bad, which means this game should be closer than the 6.5-point spread. This game will be left in the air for the most part (ARZ has the 4th-ranked run defense), where Arizona has the advantage.


New York Giants (+3) @ San Diego Chargers (47.5): Chargers 24-20
4:25 PM, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA (Weather: Mostly sunny, mid-50s)


Reasons: A tale of two 5-7 teams, both with higher expectations, highlights this late game as the up-and-down Giants try to keep pace in the embarrassing NFC East by stealing one on the road v. an inconsistent Chargers team. The Chargers are the 4th-ranked pass offense in the NFL, which will be the name of the game as the Chargers won’t get much going v. the Giants run defense (ranked 9th).  Both of these teams will try to salvage their seasons, which should make for an interesting contest. The Chargers get to .500 at home.


Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (41): 49ers 27-24
4:25 PM, Candlestick Park, San Francisco, CA (Weather: Sunny, mid-50s)


Reasons: It doesn’t get more evenly matched then these two teams. Whether it’s the run game (SEA – ranked 3rd; SF – ranked 7th), pass defense (SEA – ranked 1st; SF – ranked 3rd), run defense (SEA – ranked 11th; SF – ranked 11th), or points per game (SEA – 29 ppg; SF – 27 ppg) these two teams are meant for each other. If I weren’t such a diehard Patriots fan I might wish these two teams were in different conferences so they could meet in the Super Bowl. These two teams only weakness comes in the passing game, and their QBs are Russell Wilson, potential league MVP, and Colin Kaepernick, the guy who would’ve won the Super Bowl MVP if they had won last year. So yeah, these two teams don’t really have weaknesses. The Seahawks have owned SF lately, which seems to point to a 49er win at home as they try and take back some divisional momentum. Not sure if I see that happening, but the Seahawks will certainly miss their secondary guys more v. Boldin and Davis. It’ll be a battle, but SF squeaks out a win at home.


 Carolina Panthers (+3) @ New Orleans Saints (46): Saints 27-24
8:30 PM, Super Dome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)


 Reasons:  This game comes down to one thing: The Saints are 10-0 in their last ten home prime time games and they’re coming off a tough loss on the road in need of some seeding help. If they lose to the Panthers at home, they could essentially kiss any home field advantage goodbye, which we all know would spell doom for any New Orleans Super Bowl chances as well. On the other side of the ball the Panthers are relevant for the first time in a while, have won eight straight games, and own one of the best defenses in the league (ranked 6th v. the pass; 2nd v. the run). Something has to give in the passing game as both teams can stop the run (Saints ranked 4th v. the run), so the advantage has to go to NO and MVP Drew Brees. This is the perfect opportunity for NO to remind Carolina who’s boss and they will. 


Dallas Cowboys (+1) @ Chicago Bears (49.5): Cowboys 28-27
Monday 8:30 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Clear, very cold, low 10s)


Reasons: I said the Cowboys wouldn’t hack the cold a few weeks ago v. the Giants and I was wrong, so I’m throwing the weather factor out (although it will be 12 degrees). It’s also interesting to note that the Bears passing game (ranked 6th) haven’t skipped a beat since losing Jay Cutler. That offense will thrive v. the Cowboys 31st ranked pass defense, as should the Cowboys run game v. the Bears last ranked run defense. This will be another close game and the frigid air could actually affect the passing game, which would put the run games front and center. The Bears only lose home games to high-powered offenses…uh oh. I like the Cowboys to squeak this one out on the road. 

Stay tuned Tuesday for "Tuesday's Here: #NFL Predictions Review"!

Tahnks for reading!

Phaulkner

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